SGOTM 19 - Also Sprach Sid

See, the probability theory usually works (and fair),;) you lost a battle at 97% odd, now you won a battle with low odd.
 
War logistics:

Spoiler :


The following counts are for Cuirs with full health or close (EDIT: except in Barcelona where all wounded Cuirs are healing with Angry Nurse)

1N of Madrid: 5 Cuirs with 2/2 :move:, 2 Cuirs with 1/2 :move:

Barcelona: 6 Cuirs with 2/2 :move:, 5 Cuirs healing

1NE of Barcelona: 4 Cuirs with 2/2 :move:


Not sure how to split the troops
 
pomthom said:
The following counts are for Cuirs with full health or close

1N of Madrid: 5 Cuirs with 2/2 :move:, 2 Cuirs with 1/2 :move:

These 5 2/2 :move: to 1NE of the COW, targeting the south city

Barcelona: 6 Cuirs with 2/2 :move:, 5 Cuirs healing

1NE of Barcelona: 4 Cuirs


Not sure how to split the troops
Click to expand...

All the rest follow the west route. to the PH 2W of the wine.
 
OK, it's T136 and the Taj is built! Currently we are at ~930 bpt for -350 gpt. I think waiting the GA before touching the slider was the good call (we were below 700 bpt 2 turns ago!). This won't delay Democracy since I'm not even sure we'll have enough cash to finish it up in 1 go here (capture gold should make it work though)

--------------------------------

It's 3am and I am ready to pass on the torch :D

There's one last thing I can do here: launch the attack on Cordoba

Spoiler :


Go?
 
Aww I should have logged on a bit earlier...
2E of Seville would have been slightly better than 2W of wine.

No objection for Cordoba... we can get a few units from here.
 
Duckweed said:
Yes, a safe battle as I see.
Click to expand...
Actually it was a close one, but we came through:
Spoiler :



^^Lots of Workers! (3 of them on the hill 2N of Horses)
2 can be captured from Madrid this turn if we choose to





^^Expensive builds, not bad :cool:


------------------

HC is 1 turn away from Paper and we can get this deal:
Spoiler :


------------------

Ok, I'm done for now. Hope I didn't screw up too much for the next dude. :nuke:

@soundjata: this is your captain speaking. You are summoned to the front. I repeat. You are summoned to the front.


LOG:
Spoiler :
:joke:

Doesn't fit! But I kept it if we need it/someone wants it
 
The war is going very well! :goodjob:

Not sure whether KK is willing to trade Eng with 3 AIs knowing it. If so, we can research Compass ourselves and twist Optics instead. Edit: Nope, hopefully we can twist Eng+Compass.
 
pomthom said:
You're reducing this to commerce output, I'm not talking about that at all :p

What I'm referring to is the use you make of your treasury, the timing has everything to do with it. Gold is a stock that has no added value until it is spent. If I have the treasury to fund 5 turns of research, it will be spent for that at one point or other: I'll net more beakers if these turns are in a GA than if they're not (your example compares different number of turns invested in research).

The gold generated in the future to fund future turns of research is irrelevant to when we want to invest our stock of treasury. The risk of investing later here is to delay our key objective: researching Democracy. But in any case we will turn the same amount of stock gold into many more beakers.
Click to expand...
I'm sorry, but this is wrong. Or else, you will need to demonstrate numerically how it is correct.

My example showed how postponing research until a GA does not increase research output, or overall commerce yield, but simply recasts the order in which we generate beakers or gold. Waiting until the GA means that we generate more commerce per turn, whether this commerce results in more gold or science.

Try to produce an example that runs across 10–15 turns, and you will see that although the GA increases commerce per turn, it is no more or less efficient to run the science slider in the GA than outside. What matters are the multipliers —the Libraries, Monasteries, and Markets— and external factors—a tech's inherent benefit, AI research, trade bait, and so on.
 
Good work in any case. A carefully planned and well played set all round. :goodjob:

The Paper trade is good with me. HC is probably heading towards Economics, and 70G seems fair.

Should we assign our Spy points to Kublai? We could steal Optics at a late stage, unless we want to improve the Whale in the near future. We just need enough EP on HC to revolt Aachen.
 
Doshin said:
I'm sorry, but this is wrong. Or else, you will need to demonstrate numerically how it is correct.

My example showed how postponing research until a GA does not increase research output, or overall commerce yield, but simply recasts the order in which we generate beakers or gold. Waiting until the GA means that we generate more commerce per turn, whether this commerce results in more gold or science.

Try to produce an example that runs across 10–15 turns, and you will see that although the GA increases commerce per turn, it is no more or less efficient to run the science slider in the GA than outside. What matters are the multipliers —the Libraries, Monasteries, and Markets— and external factors—a tech's inherent benefit, AI research, trade bait, and so on.
Click to expand...

As for this discussion Doshin is correct. You do not get more beakers from running 100% research during a golden age. The multipliers are which matter. If we are building markets now, we should research and stock gold when you multiplier for gold is better.

If we are building libraries now we should stock gold and research when our research multiplier is better.
 
Doshin said:
Should we assign our Spy points to Kublai? We could steal Optics at a late stage, unless we want to improve the Whale in the near future. We just need enough EP on HC to revolt Aachen.
Click to expand...

The most important factors are

Whether our missionary can succeed the spread?
When our spy can arrive HC' capital?

Our EPPs on HC are just barely enough and our spy won't have much time to gain the stationary bonus.

There are quite a few issues to be determined this turn
  • When to switch to CS+Pacifism? and GP plan.
  • Whether to attack Toku as soon as possible?
  • Big direction of worker assignment and improvement.
  • War logistics. If it goes smoothly, we could complete the war with KK on T138 and ready to DOW HC on T141.

Soundjata has not given his availability, in the worst case (that's I always consider when I make a plan.:lol:), someone needs to carry the game for a while. I can't take it for now because my wife is not in good mood for my playing.:mischief:
 
Duckweed said:
The most important factors are

Whether our missionary can succeed the spread?
When our spy can arrive HC' capital?

Our EPPs on HC are just barely enough and our spy won't have much time to gain the stationary bonus.

I'm happy to keep the points on HC for the time being. I looked at the save after I last posted, and our Spy is a very long way from HC. I suppose the Optics steal is a long-term possibility.

There are quite a few issues to be determined this turn
  • When to switch to CS+Pacifism? and GP plan.

    We need one GM very soon, to fuel research. This will go to Basra, Istanbul, or Mecca.

    This leaves us with one guaranteed GM, as long as we stay in Caste, and two likely GSs.

    If we generate our guys in the order: GM-GM-GP-GP, we can stay in Caste for fewer turns.

    If we generate our guys in the order: GM-GP-GP-GM, we may be able to burn a low % GSpy, or GEngineer, in the final Golden Age.

    I'll post a more detailed suggestion later. I think we can estimate the Parthenon capture date now, so we can be a bit more precise. We will receive a GM from Econ, too.

  • Whether to attack Toku as soon as possible?

    Any time after we have made peace with KK is fine, as long as we have enough Cuirassiers for a 3-prong attack against HC.

    What are Cuirassier odds against Chichen Itza hill Longbows? It has been a while since I did this. I guess ~3 attackers per defender would be safe?

  • Big direction of worker assignment and improvement.

    My immediate thought last night was that we need 3–4 more Workers chopping Forests for the Crab site. The two Workers who improved the Sheep need to move to do that. One Worker needs to be drawn back from the capital/Sheepish.

    Some Forests around DH could be preserved to chop a Grocer.

    I guess, at this stage (in new cities), chopping > Farms > Cottages.
  • War logistics. If it goes smoothly, we could complete the war with KK on T138 and ready to DOW HC on T141.

Soundjata has not given his availability, in the worst case (that's I always consider when I make a plan.:lol:), someone needs to carry the game for a while. I can't take it for now because my wife is not in good mood for my playing.:mischief:
Click to expand...
We need to move some 1-movement military police into the big Spanish cities that are leaving revolt (Toledo, Barcelona).

We should also calculate whether Libraries are worthwhile in some Japanese cities. Aksum and Gondar both have a lot of :commerce: .
 
War logistics with HC

Spoiler :




We Should be able to capture Santiago on T138, with 1~2 turns of healing and waiting for reinforcement, we are able to DOW HC on T141, with ~30 healthy Cuis to start. Other Cuis that cannot arrive in time should rally on the south to attack Mainz.

The date of capturing would be

T143: Vienna with Parth
T144: Augsburg
T145: Aachen
 
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