I'm just sorta throwing out suggestions for wb, settler, library without any real planning. Also, not sure the team commited to Sailing. Maybe we should pause and upload?
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SGOTM 20 - The Shawshank Redemption
- Thread starter AlanH
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Edit:This was actually a cross-post, and I typed it before you suggested uploading, but obviously we are on the same page on this 
OK, I am stopping for the evening. Can continue tomorrow evening (about 20 hours from now). Uploading the save for now in case someone wants to have a look.
We need to decide if we attack now (with 4) or next turn with 5, and that decision is in priciple obvious, but depends on timing of a game mechanic, and I want to make sure....
Sailing at 0% for 1 turn is fine... After that, do we stay at 0%, or crank research back up is another decision to ponder over the next 24 hours...
Now, for the game mechanic.
Last turn:
Sab Prod was blank, and a wb had just appeared in the capital.
I then hit "end turn"
IBT, Suli switches to slavery
Now, Sab Prod is still blank
If I attack now, I face archer and warrior.
IF I understand the timing of anarchy and whipping right, we can afford to wait for chariot 5 (next turn attack) and still be 100% sure that he does not whip a unit. IS THAT CORRACT??
(Cathy and Naps went into slavery at the same time, btw.)
OK, I am stopping for the evening. Can continue tomorrow evening (about 20 hours from now). Uploading the save for now in case someone wants to have a look.
We need to decide if we attack now (with 4) or next turn with 5, and that decision is in priciple obvious, but depends on timing of a game mechanic, and I want to make sure....
Sailing at 0% for 1 turn is fine... After that, do we stay at 0%, or crank research back up is another decision to ponder over the next 24 hours...
Now, for the game mechanic.
Last turn:
Sab Prod was blank, and a wb had just appeared in the capital.
I then hit "end turn"
IBT, Suli switches to slavery
Now, Sab Prod is still blank
If I attack now, I face archer and warrior.
IF I understand the timing of anarchy and whipping right, we can afford to wait for chariot 5 (next turn attack) and still be 100% sure that he does not whip a unit. IS THAT CORRACT??
(Cathy and Naps went into slavery at the same time, btw.)
Yes, Let's wait for 5 chariots.
And let's pillage the cows (edit: and the road too). Cease Fire, and steal workers from that spot after we get the city.
Mitchum
Deity
Nice work so far, Jastrow. I'll try to have a look at the save tonight when I get home but it appears that things seem to be on track. We may have overbuilt chariots with Suleiman's capital so weakly defended but it's better to have too many than not enough. I'm sure those chariots will come in handy for exploration and barb control.
I'm anxious to get our WB bait out of Ruins Harbor before the barbarian armada descends on it.
I'm anxious to get our WB bait out of Ruins Harbor before the barbarian armada descends on it.
LowtherCastle
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Sule can whip an archer from 0h this turn. Why not? He's got pop7. Anyone know from the code that an AI won't whip from 0h?
I'd lean toward attacking the archer now with a CI chariot. We have 72% odds of getting 2 or more hits. WIth two hits, our next CI chariot has 61% odds of winning. If our chariot doesn't kill the warrior, then our 4th chariot should go up against the archer and kill him off, leaving only the warrior. If Sule drywhips an archer we're in the same soup as we would have been anyway. If not, we'll capture Istanbul easily.
I'd lean toward attacking the archer now with a CI chariot. We have 72% odds of getting 2 or more hits. WIth two hits, our next CI chariot has 61% odds of winning. If our chariot doesn't kill the warrior, then our 4th chariot should go up against the archer and kill him off, leaving only the warrior. If Sule drywhips an archer we're in the same soup as we would have been anyway. If not, we'll capture Istanbul easily.
That's an option, and I won't fight too hard. However, I don't think he will whip, and I'd rather wait for 5 chariots. This will also delay the Palace move to Edirne which gives us more time to get that situation figured out.
If we don't get our 2 hits in then we would wait til next turn. Now we're still at 4 chariots again and can't even attack if he has a new archer.
And then we've lost a C1 chariot. I'd rather throw two 0xp chariots at the city next turn.
Or I could search the code for 0h whip code....or I could wait for ZPV to tell us.
LowtherCastle
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I see two choices for the GLH. BUild it in Ruins or capture Edirne and build it in Istanbul.
If we're going to build it in Ruins, then we need a library there asap so we can run 10hpt.
LowtherCastle
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ZPV's awol. Don't count on him right now. How do you search for the code? I've never figured out how people can find stufff so fast.
Waiting for 5 chariots is ideal obviously as long as he doesn't whip.
LowtherCastle
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0XP only has 55% chance of getting 2 or more hits.
Mitchum
Deity
Just looked at the save. I'd be real tempted to go for the city this turn as LC suggested. I'm almost sure that Suleiman will whip Istanbul this turn for 2 pops. So we get +1 chariot to attack next turn and we'll be facing +1 archer. Plus, Istanbul will be -2 pops when we finally do take it... or worse if we have to wait even longer.
As LC said, attack with a C1 chariot and hope to get 2 hits. If not, I guess we have to punt...
@WT
What makes you say he won't whip? I see the AI dry whip all the time, especially when threatened. His got 2 defenders vs. 4 attackers (will be 5 attackers after we move this turn). Why wouldn't he whip in that situation?
My vote is to go for it.
As LC said, attack with a C1 chariot and hope to get 2 hits. If not, I guess we have to punt...
@WT
What makes you say he won't whip? I see the AI dry whip all the time, especially when threatened. His got 2 defenders vs. 4 attackers (will be 5 attackers after we move this turn). Why wouldn't he whip in that situation?
My vote is to go for it.
Mitchum
Deity
I prefer the 72% you mentioned for a C1 chariot. The last battle, if things go according to the odds, could be won by a 0 XP warrior against a red-lined unit so we could save one of the 0XP chariot to clean up.
Will this work... Will he come back and (try to
) build a pasture on that square before Istanbul comes out of revolt? If not, will it not be in Istanbuls' culture? Or will Edrin keep if for a long time?My question about game mechanic timing was... Can he whip right now, or is in currently in revolt. Did is turn of revolt happen the turn before or after the IBT when we see he switched to slavery?
If currently in revolt, then obviously be cannot whip... If not in revolt, then he might as far as I know... I have no idea is AI's "cold-whip" or not when treatened.
I could play again (at least the attack), and maybe a turn or two, in about 12 hours...
Right now, it looks like we are leaning to attack now... I simply will trust the majority, since I do not have a qualified opinion on this.
In Capital next, we can start a bit of both a library and a settler, and 3whip the settler from size 7-4, for max overflow into the library... This would get the settler at reasonably the correct time. We can start roading to the city spot in the meantime... Where EXACTLY would we put this city?
In Ruins... Library is a possibility... Do we want to consider Mystecism before sailing, and pop borders with an obelisk instead?? I normally hate obelisks, but this might be a sensible use of one.
In organization terms, someone should be getting ready to take over... This evening I am free to play, but Friday and Saturday are booked out solid for me. Sunday is also very questionable (I likely have a guest in town, tho not 100% confirmed), and I have meetings on both Monday and Tuesday evening next week. I would have time again starting next Wednesday, but obviously do not want to keep the game sitting for that long....
Right now, it looks like we are leaning to attack now... I simply will trust the majority, since I do not have a qualified opinion on this.
In Capital next, we can start a bit of both a library and a settler, and 3whip the settler from size 7-4, for max overflow into the library... This would get the settler at reasonably the correct time. We can start roading to the city spot in the meantime... Where EXACTLY would we put this city?
In Ruins... Library is a possibility... Do we want to consider Mystecism before sailing, and pop borders with an obelisk instead?? I normally hate obelisks, but this might be a sensible use of one.
In organization terms, someone should be getting ready to take over... This evening I am free to play, but Friday and Saturday are booked out solid for me. Sunday is also very questionable (I likely have a guest in town, tho not 100% confirmed), and I have meetings on both Monday and Tuesday evening next week. I would have time again starting next Wednesday, but obviously do not want to keep the game sitting for that long....
Will this work... Will he come back and (try to
Ed will keep it for a long time.
Pillage it.
I was hoping to lose 1 0xp chariot (maybe 2).
I'm not a fan of throwing away a 3xp chariot.
I would rather burn a 0xp at...I'm told...55% odds.
The extra 17% doesn't seem worth it. When it comes time to clean up the injured defenders we'll want the C1's
LowtherCastle
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I built a test example to the get the odds with alt-shift. 72:28 versus 55:45 is a huge difference to me.
Clean-up should be trivial and our goal is Istanbul, not building an XP Museum.
The thing is, once he whips, he's off to the races and we're up against 6 defenders. Furthermore, this time he'll promote to CGI. To me, we either go down now or wait till we have a real SoD and we don't want a real SoD. It's like I said before, we're picking the exact worst time to attack this city: right when he pops 40% and Slavery. We need 3 chariots per archer +1 to play it straight.
I'd be fine with going for it now and totally abandoning this misadventure if we fail.
LowtherCastle
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No. You obviously haven't done the math. Seem is for believers. The world seems flat.
What this really boils down to is the first chariot battle. If we get 2 hits, we can give ourselves two shots with better than 60% odds and we only need to win one.
The CI promotion barely increases our odds against the warrior. False security.
So what you're basically saying is, 72:28 doesn't seem better than 55:45 in a one-off battle. Really.
By the way, I'm not sure we even have 50"50 odds of winning all this. I think mathwise, it's a bit less. BUt that's brown, unlike the above.
LowtherCastle
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Here's another way to view that first battle, if this helps.
The CI chariot gets 41% odds to win each round, including first strike.
The 0 chariot gets 38%. Let's call that 2 in 5 for each.
The CI chariot dies after 5 losses.
The 0 Chariot dies after 4 loses. (Jastrow: That's the jump-point, because the archer does 25HP for each hit.)
Suppose each guy loses to the first strike. Then the 0 chariot has no margin left. Odds are he'll win 2 of 5 but he actually has to win 2 of 4 or he's dead before he gets the 5th chance for the 2nd hit.
The CI chariot still has 4 hits before death, so he has to win 2 of 6, which is actually 2 of 5, since he needs both before the 6th.
The CI chariot gets 41% odds to win each round, including first strike.
The 0 chariot gets 38%. Let's call that 2 in 5 for each.
The CI chariot dies after 5 losses.
The 0 Chariot dies after 4 loses. (Jastrow: That's the jump-point, because the archer does 25HP for each hit.)
Suppose each guy loses to the first strike. Then the 0 chariot has no margin left. Odds are he'll win 2 of 5 but he actually has to win 2 of 4 or he's dead before he gets the 5th chance for the 2nd hit.
The CI chariot still has 4 hits before death, so he has to win 2 of 6, which is actually 2 of 5, since he needs both before the 6th.
