Walter_Wolf
King
- Joined
- Feb 11, 2011
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- 806
SGOTM 22 - Lurker thread
- Thread starter BSPollux
- Start date
WillowBrook
Lurker
Conquest is looking like it will take quite a while for anyone. I'm guessing that at least one team will eventually switch to space. And I'm wondering how essential tech stealing will turn out to be.
Pangaea
Rock N Roller
- Joined
- Sep 17, 2010
- Messages
- 6,390
I'm mostly following the (anti)TSR team (btw, they have almost as many posts as the other teams combined), and they seem to think it will be difficult for any team to even win this game. The AIs are teching like crazy, and naturally it's very tricky to keep teching fast for the humans due to no tech trading and a severe limitation in cities. Even with tech stealing (which TSR are doing lots of), going all the way to space will take a long time. Conquest probably won't be easy either, but once you get over that hump, perhaps things will snowball well enough to roll over the AIs.
However, if things were to go all the way to space, then I suppose getting a food corporation will be important, so they can grow Rome bigger and have more cities.
However, if things were to go all the way to space, then I suppose getting a food corporation will be important, so they can grow Rome bigger and have more cities.
Sam_Yeager
Another Original Geezer
Looks as though there may be an issue for one of the teams. 
Spoiler :
Izuul
Level 86
- Joined
- Jan 26, 2012
- Messages
- 6,941
Looking at TSRs game and Saladin's LBs are insane. He has CG3, Drill 2 guys defending his cities, and has now added maces as well. It's going to take tons of praets/cats to take him down. Zara is also moving a stack in their direction, and they could easily be the target. I think he's cautious with them + brennus + gilgamesh, but they are the closest of the 3.
I really underestimated how difficult this one would be with the AI only set to Monarch.
I don't think any 1 aspect of the game made it very hard, but all of them work together to make it very, very difficult. Raging barbs didn't hurt the players, but it fed the AI defenders XP. Needing to build 7 wonders in Rome pushes players towards mines + farms rather than a cottage capitol for research, and also ties Rome up building wonders. The # of city limitation then makes it difficult to get that lost research elsewhere, and on top of that the unit requirement in Rome eats up gpt in unit maintenance. Compounding all of this is the no tech trading option.
All of the other side effects of no tech trading are difficult to deal with also. No selling techs for gold, no easy +relations boost with the AI, no bribing AI into war with each other, etc.
I really underestimated how difficult this one would be with the AI only set to Monarch.
I don't think any 1 aspect of the game made it very hard, but all of them work together to make it very, very difficult. Raging barbs didn't hurt the players, but it fed the AI defenders XP. Needing to build 7 wonders in Rome pushes players towards mines + farms rather than a cottage capitol for research, and also ties Rome up building wonders. The # of city limitation then makes it difficult to get that lost research elsewhere, and on top of that the unit requirement in Rome eats up gpt in unit maintenance. Compounding all of this is the no tech trading option.
All of the other side effects of no tech trading are difficult to deal with also. No selling techs for gold, no easy +relations boost with the AI, no bribing AI into war with each other, etc.
Xcalibrator
Ultraviolet Catastrophe
enKage of 5th Element made this observation: "I noticed that AIs stop spreading religion when someone converts and then send missionairies to next AI." Is this true?
Glad that Xteam will be able to continue.
Glad that Xteam will be able to continue.
Frederiksberg
Deity
This SGOTM looks much harder than expected 
I'm beginning to wonder if some teams may be unable to win it. Fifth are putting up a brave fight but missed the GWall and without an early great spy and barb problems they are my prime candidate for "early retirement". XTeam could also be in trouble. They too lack an early GSpy and I don't like their city locations. Suspicator are doing quite well but they haven't discovered that the AI's are turbo charged because they don't have Alpha. They are about to make a grave mistake: Using their GSpy for a 3 city golden age
. I haven't done the math but usually a GSpy is worth ~8000 beakers if you invest in a Trojan city. Pretty sure a GA doesn't come near this number. If they make this mistake they could also be looking into a very difficult game. The former Phoenixes have been hampered a lot by some early DOW's from the AI but my guess is that they can put together a win. Could be a long and hard road to victory though. Finally it looks as if the Anti-guys have gained control over their game and that a victory is more or less a certainty now.
I'm beginning to wonder if some teams may be unable to win it. Fifth are putting up a brave fight but missed the GWall and without an early great spy and barb problems they are my prime candidate for "early retirement". XTeam could also be in trouble. They too lack an early GSpy and I don't like their city locations. Suspicator are doing quite well but they haven't discovered that the AI's are turbo charged because they don't have Alpha. They are about to make a grave mistake: Using their GSpy for a 3 city golden age
. I haven't done the math but usually a GSpy is worth ~8000 beakers if you invest in a Trojan city. Pretty sure a GA doesn't come near this number. If they make this mistake they could also be looking into a very difficult game. The former Phoenixes have been hampered a lot by some early DOW's from the AI but my guess is that they can put together a win. Could be a long and hard road to victory though. Finally it looks as if the Anti-guys have gained control over their game and that a victory is more or less a certainty now.
Space VC is in to allow a team that just can't kill the enemies to abuse the AIs inability to actually win, even if they are in a winning position. I'm curious to see if someone will do that.This SGOTM looks much harder than expected
(...)
Could be a long and hard road to victory though.
Sam_Yeager
Another Original Geezer
From what I recall the SGOTMs have evolved such that medal winning teams have always used a decent amount of conquest to achieve their aims even when space or diplomacy was the required win scenario. Consequently teams are likely to wait too long before deciding to go down the space route. Teams will either have insufficient time to finish space or will be so weakened that it is not feasible.
IMHO naturally.
Frederiksberg
Deity
I agree with Sam_Yeager. Changing VC and strategy in the middle of the game will be difficult. Then again, Suspicatur and Fifth are both cottaging, so maybe they can actually change course later. I'm not saying that cottaging is a good strategy but at least it is more flexible wrt VC. Farming is the logical route to go considering that empire size is limited by the size of the capital.
Izuul
Level 86
- Joined
- Jan 26, 2012
- Messages
- 6,941
Yep, the "optimal" path here does include more risk. Farming and mining everything around Rome is definitely the way to go if striving for the earliest finish possible, but it does leave a team with very, very little research potential. I think you would have to go for Communism to conjure up a quick economy through SP.
Still, space would be difficult and time consuming with the city constraints here. There's a soft cap on the number of cities that a team can have in this game, and it's really not many for a big space push. Even with banana plantation, WMs in place of mines, and Bio farms, Rome can't get any bigger than about size 32-33, and it's unlikely that growing it that large is actually feasible. Food corps don't seem like a viable way to circumvent this either. Not enough Sushi/Cereal resources available, and not enough cities to claim them.
This would be an interesting exercise though - trying to determine the optimal size of Rome by weighing the value of extra cities against the declining value of the Rome tiles (Bio farms vs SP WMs and WSs etc).
Still, space would be difficult and time consuming with the city constraints here. There's a soft cap on the number of cities that a team can have in this game, and it's really not many for a big space push. Even with banana plantation, WMs in place of mines, and Bio farms, Rome can't get any bigger than about size 32-33, and it's unlikely that growing it that large is actually feasible. Food corps don't seem like a viable way to circumvent this either. Not enough Sushi/Cereal resources available, and not enough cities to claim them.
This would be an interesting exercise though - trying to determine the optimal size of Rome by weighing the value of extra cities against the declining value of the Rome tiles (Bio farms vs SP WMs and WSs etc).
WillowBrook
Lurker
I must say, I'm quite enjoying following Anti-TSR the past few weeks. The 3 active players work together quite well, refining each others' ideas and moving the game along at a decent pace.
I fear some other teams may not fully realize what they're up against until there are only a few weeks left to finish the game.
I fear some other teams may not fully realize what they're up against until there are only a few weeks left to finish the game.
Sam_Yeager
Another Original Geezer
Now I understand why their post count is so horrendously large compared to other teams.
WillowBrook
Lurker
Gumbolt posted this this morning:
Unfortunately for XTeam, he is spot on....
(emphasis added)
Unfortunately for XTeam, he is spot on....
Sam_Yeager
Another Original Geezer
Gumbolt posted this this morning:
(emphasis added)
Unfortunately for XTeam, he is spot on....
Yes it looks as though XTeam will bite the dust in just a few turns time.
I always aim to create a scenario that kills me. I am way worse than any of these teams so something I can beat is too easy. This time I went a little too far as it seems.
When I designed the map first it wasn't as difficult. The AI didn't have as many res at home and started slower. At that time I did the most tests to see if I could survive to the point where the teams would pull far away from my own performance (at which I tend to stop and open the worldbuilder to check the AIs status). It worked fine in terms of difficulty.
But there was the problem that the AI would start quite differently from game to game. I already knew that it's very difficult to stop the AI from doing something specific. It's way easier to distract them with something else instead. So, to avoid the unpredictable build/don't build decision on wonders I added some techs and res (marble!) to the starts so they'd not go for the Great Wall.
Afterwards I checked if it would lead to them ignoring the wall and it did. It worked fine. My mistake was not to check the long term outcome of that change. I massively underestimated the snowball.
BTW I am super busy with a new job that's why I'm less involved this time.
When I designed the map first it wasn't as difficult. The AI didn't have as many res at home and started slower. At that time I did the most tests to see if I could survive to the point where the teams would pull far away from my own performance (at which I tend to stop and open the worldbuilder to check the AIs status). It worked fine in terms of difficulty.
But there was the problem that the AI would start quite differently from game to game. I already knew that it's very difficult to stop the AI from doing something specific. It's way easier to distract them with something else instead. So, to avoid the unpredictable build/don't build decision on wonders I added some techs and res (marble!) to the starts so they'd not go for the Great Wall.
Afterwards I checked if it would lead to them ignoring the wall and it did. It worked fine. My mistake was not to check the long term outcome of that change. I massively underestimated the snowball.
BTW I am super busy with a new job that's why I'm less involved this time.
A good SG map should try to reduce the random factors in game, not the opposite. Unfortunately, this SG enlarges the most effective or even deadly random factor, AI's choice of DOW target, since human player is limited by the conditions to fend off early invasion. All those limitation on expansions, the location of copper/Iron, no tech trade together greatly weaken human player's potential of defense. I'm not saying that this setting is too difficult, but a DOW from your neighbor could make huge difference on the result for 2 teams that are of the close skills, it's far from popping a silver in the capital.
In SG15, human player were set to face the worse diplomatic situation and some teams (PD and Kaku IIRC) got early DOW, not a deadly event for them since human player got enough resources to defend and they got paid back by a early GG, and other benefits in PD's play.
The odd of producing GSpy, is another factor which is totally uncontrollable except the 1st one.
As I said before http://forums.civfanatics.com/showpost.php?p=13276144&postcount=2291
SG12 was the best setup map I had played, this map also eliminated the early DOW factor since human player was set to be in war with everyone from beginning.
In SG15, human player were set to face the worse diplomatic situation and some teams (PD and Kaku IIRC) got early DOW, not a deadly event for them since human player got enough resources to defend and they got paid back by a early GG, and other benefits in PD's play.The odd of producing GSpy, is another factor which is totally uncontrollable except the 1st one.
As I said before http://forums.civfanatics.com/showpost.php?p=13276144&postcount=2291
SG12 was the best setup map I had played, this map also eliminated the early DOW factor since human player was set to be in war with everyone from beginning.
