A good SG map should try to
reduce the random factors in game, not the opposite. Unfortunately, this SG enlarges the most effective or even deadly random factor, AI's choice of DOW target, since human player is limited by the conditions to fend off early invasion. All those limitation on expansions, the location of copper/Iron, no tech trade together greatly weaken human player's potential of defense. I'm not saying that this setting is too difficult, but a DOW from your neighbor could make huge difference on the result for 2 teams that are of the close skills, it's far from popping a silver in the capital.
In SG15, human player were set to face the worse diplomatic situation and some teams (PD and Kaku IIRC) got early DOW, not a deadly event for them since human player got enough resources to defend and they got paid back by a early GG, and other benefits in PD's play.
The odd of producing GSpy, is another factor which is totally uncontrollable except the 1st one.
As I said before
http://forums.civfanatics.com/showpost.php?p=13276144&postcount=2291
SG12 was the best setup map I had played, this map also eliminated the early DOW factor since human player was set to be in war with everyone from beginning.[emoji38]