[BTS] SGOTM 26 - Home Slices

Fippy

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I think Sushi would have benefited from a faster start, my feeling tells me that i would have waited with major whipping until it's spread..then use super-fast regrowth to whip everything needed quickly. So high pop until Medicine - low pop for buildings / Execs / GG units - Caste+Paci switch until the end.
 

Kaitzilla

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There's something not right somewhere, the odds for spreading that are listed in the two posts you linked seem far too low compared to my experience. Has something changed in a patch or BUFFY or is there something else going on??

Here's an example in a current game where Hatty shrined Judaism before I killed her and it's spreading like wildfire, I'll try and work out the odds of those spreads all happening based on those formulae but it's astronomical!

View attachment 569851
There are a lot of factors that DanF's table isn't capturing I think.

Each map has its own odds based on the size of the map, the world wrap, and the max distance a city can be from another city.
A flat map will have a huge max distance and religions will spread more easily.
Cylindrical map which most people play will have religion spread at normal speeds.
Toroidal map will have religions spready very slowly.

If all the cities in the world are at the same latitude, there is less diagonal distance, so religion will spread easier.

If the religion is Judaism, it will spread easier because Judaism spreads 1st amongst religions in between turns.
I think Christianity goes 2nd.
Someone wrote it down somewhere.

Anyway, DanF's table is a good starting point to give a general idea of how likely religion spreads.
It also shows how shrines really boost the odds of very distant cities getting the religion spread from 0.1% to 0.3% due to rounding issues.
 
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Noble Zarkon

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Someone wrote it down somewhere.
The file was pointed out in one of the links you gave - it's Assets/XML/GameInfo/CIV4ReligionInfo.xml

The order is:-
  1. Judaism
  2. Christianity
  3. Islam
  4. Hinduism
  5. Buddhism
  6. Confucianism
  7. Taoism
No idea why it is in that order!!
 

Gumbolt

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Begging_Ceiling = [((Turns_Known + 50) * 2 * ((Our_Power + 100)/(Their_Power + 100)) * 3 if Land Target]
Our_Power = Our Soldier count from demographics divided by 1000
Their_Power = Our_Power / 0.9
Divide the Begging_Ceiling by 2 if not in Financial Trouble to find the Gold_Ceiling.

We met Peter on T78 according to page 1.
It is now T138?
60 turns

60+50 * 2 * (0.9 roughly) / 2 = 99:gold: ceiling

Ya, I'm 99% sure we can beg 40:gold: safely.

This interested me. For some reason I always assumed a minimum of 20 turns between begs. Yet nothing here to suggest this. There must be some code where Ai remembers what you have begged? I think our low power this game did not help with begging. It's an interesting source of income when you are playing a mostly peaceful game. Unless you call 3 uber musketman and a warrior an offensive force. :lol:
 

elitetroops

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There must be some code where Ai remembers what you have begged?
It's a memory decay XML variable. I suppose it would be MEMORY_MADE_DEMAND_RECENT which is 20 for all leaders. 1/20 chance every turn they forget about your last beg.
 

Kaitzilla

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920AD
PR 612BPT -53CM -101 overall
HS 376BPT -68CM -145 overall

1010AD
PR 684BPT -54CM -109 Overall
HS 433BPT -117CM -177 Overall

1060AD
PR 835 -55CM -113 Overall
HS 645 -132CM -201 overall

1150AD
PR 772BPT -17CM -78 overall
HS 651BPT -115CM -92 overall

1250AD
PR 987BPT -20CM -84 overall..
HS 1061BPT -122CM -74 Overall.

1320AD
PR 1075BPT -20CM -79 overall.
HS 1137 -147CM -54 overall.

1450ad maintenance
PR 1278BPT -20CM -93 overall.
HS 1323 -161CM -144 overall .

By 1200ad or so HS has caught up science wise. On average behind by about 200 on 3 of the 4 saves I picked (I used the dates you uploaded.). Of those saves HS were 0% science on 2 turns.

PR ran full science to end of game from 920ad. PR had a GM outside Sal's capital at 920ad for 1700gold. We may have been waiting for Bibs to grow to size 14 for 1900. Think PR ran another mission later as PR had 2500 gold come 1250ad or so. Prior to this I think PR had to run 0% science quite a bit on and off.

Maintenance, the difference between teams was -13 to -141 at 1450ad. Meaning HS were likely forced to run merchants.

It's about 920-1060ad the -10k delta of SC vs med has kicked in. You had likely finsihed bulbing techs. We bulbed electricity with 4 GS. Refrig/SC was 17k in tech which was never recovered.

At 1250ad your science lead was 74bpt. 1450ad your science lead was 50 or so. Golden age helped PR late game.

Over 60-70 turns you needed to clear 10k bpt to recover med vs SC opportunity cost. Shall we say 8k with 20% discount. Up to 1150ad if those numbers stayed constant that is -5k. With maybe +2.4k beakers for final 30 turns? If game had lasted longer for PR likely over 100 beakers a turn in favour of HS. Especially if you hit 1600-1800bpt.

Med and sushi may have cost you most of the 17k beakers here compared to PR saves.
Thanks for the numbers Gumbolt :)

Looks like T152 was as close as we got in the tech race.
Home Slices kind of caught up, but we burned up 3 more Great People at that point than PR.

I'm almost certain we would have still lost making different choices T145 even without choosing Sushi :hmm:
Maybe 7 Academies can work miracles in 50 turns?
Even if they could, the population and farms just weren't there for us at that time.


Getting back-to-back Great Artists at 1000GPP and 1600GPP at 13% was pretty surprising to me.
I thought for sure you'd have to run artists at National Epic Northwest City to get 100% odds to bulb Mass Media for the win (I assume this was planned for the 2000GPP? that was born in Northwest City in 1400AD :)), or that the Great Merchant from Economics would have to be used for Cereal instead of Great Artist for Civ Jewelers.
I think Fippy commented on it somewhere hmm

Actually, now that I look the 1000GPP should have been Great Scientist which could have bulbed Physics.
You guys must have been pissed. :lol:

My hunch: the most mind-boggling statistic will be the total amount of maintenance costs paid by HS versus PR.

This was a mistake I made in our calculations.
I forgot that 26% Inflation directly magnifies Sushi expenses. :o

By T172 when Sushi was spread and the HQ had 100% multiplier, we were losing -73:gold: per turn and not -47:gold: per turn like I thought.
So the +11:food: per city (+77:food: per turn) cost -73:gold: per turn in addition to all the population lost spreading Execs, whipping Courthouses, etc.

If only stupid Peter had expanded and got all his seafood, it wouldn't have been so bad.

WastinTime was also right that Fail :gold: only really sparkles with Industrious leaders.
 
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WastinTime

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I pointed out that at a certain time wonderbread economy is dead. It's not good to whip for failgold later in the game cus you're whipping away REP specialists or large workshops. Only with Kremlin would that pay off.
I think it did a good job for us before the golden ages. We were back up to max size for generating GPs, so it was well spent food.
 

lymond

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I thought for sure you'd have to run artists at National Epic Northwest City to get 100% odds to bulb Mass Media for the win (I assume this was planned for the 2000GPP? that was born in Northwest City in 1400AD :)), or that the Great Merchant from Economics would have to be used for Cereal instead of Great Artist for Civ Jewelers.
I think Fippy commented on it somewhere hmm

Actually, now that I look the 1000GPP should have been Great Scientist which could have bulbed Physics.
You guys must have been pissed. :lol:

I'm a little hazy at this point on the details, but we certainly did not plan for that first GA popping. I think we were going to bulb Physics, but when the GA pop we worked the numbers of an exact beaker 4XGS bulb of Electricity with existing/subsequent GS's and the free Physics GS. So yeah, we were a bit miffed but it worked out positively in some ways. First, in our G city (which you call NW city I think..kinda confusing cause we named the further NW as NW), after that "expected" GS, we planned to run purely artist GPP there for the 2 GAs needed for corp and MM bulb. However, with one of those GAs in pocket, we were able to still run scientists in G for a long time which did help a lot with research. And the perfect 4XGS Electricity bulb worked out quite nicely.
 

Fippy

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1000p Artist indeed pissed me off :)
But we really shouldn't complain..GE and GM were lucky and very valuable, also at very low chance.
Honestly nothing surprises me anymore with GP, seems like i always see odd ones in games.

Failgold with marble or stone is good imo, very early also for Stonehenge without them.
For our game i preferred Caste quickly thou..we needed sooner GP for Astro bulbs and an Academy.

Really not sure about more Academies outside of Bibs, i might agree with one in 4xfood.
 

Gumbolt

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My rule of thumb is, if you have a wonder producing great people point you usually end up with a great person of that type. No doubt there is a formula for this somewhere. It was suggested even at 100% you may end up with something else. Albeit I have never seen this. A rougue turn running 1 spy.

Looking at the numbers for T152. HS were 1k or so behind and had used 2x more GP. PR needed 1k more in techs to win game. Which would explain why electricity bulb/refrigeration/SC gave PR a bigger lead.

It also shows the power of bulbing. About 10k in techs cleared by 6 GS. Albeit bulbing SM when you have a 40% discount is far from ideal.

Looking at the techs traded from AI. LC suggested PR did better here. I think HS could finish 1k ahead on this. They got some pretty big trades with communism, RP and astronomy. I don't think we could of left these so late. We would of needed Gspy for final golden age This game was always about leaving a part of the tech tree for AI to do for you. On a barren map like this it was asking a lot!

I wonder if settling GS in capital would of been better than academies everywhere? Some cities were marginal. Once you get OU and NP running capital looked pretty good for settled GS. Especially with rep. Of course bulbing gets you to key techs much sooner. Not bulbing philosophy would of set us back 10-20 turns and slowed down our great people.

What was the thought behind early CS? It's bonus this game didn't last too long against a specialist economy. Did you have a plan B if that failed and the AI got Oracle?
 

MirrorGuard

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What was the thought behind early CS? It's bonus this game didn't last too long against a specialist economy. Did you have a plan B if that failed and the AI got Oracle?
No backup plan iirc.:cool: I created about 10 ice-age games, adding 2~3 industrious leaders like Ramzes Louis Roosevelt. None of them could finish the Oracle by T80. We got it on T78?T79? Notice that the SG map is worse than test ice-age maps as the climate is arid instead of temperate. I think other AIs would need more time. The chance of losing the Oracle is very slim.
 
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Kaitzilla

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I'm not really sure what civ would benefit from the Catapult thing the most. :think:

Boudica could have crazy Gallic Warriors and later units that used enemy roads.
Ragnar could have 5:move: Galleys.
Elizabeth could have more military punch to go with Phi/Fin, or Churchill could have crazy Redcoats.
Augustus could built Great Wall easily and combine it with Imp/Ind to go all out. World-ending Praetorians!

Maybe Attacko's dream of the Amphibious Elephants will become a thing with Guerilla Cho-ko-nus doing collateral damage from the sea 1st.


The details are a pain because in testing I got -4 Worst Enemy a lot from the city gift and the scouts kept getting killed by allied armies.
Maybe put the scouts on an island or somesuch.
5 Catapults devoted to training also slow down the 1st push obviously, but City Raider 3 means they don't tend to die nearly as easily.
 
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Kaitzilla

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I've investigated the Baitzilla miracle.

AI don't delete Workers that wander into their borders and get captured..
AI don't delete Workers that the player captures and then the AI takes back by force the following turn.

AI DO delete Workers that the Player can capture the following turn if the Player has a nearby military unit. :sad:

The best way to use a bait worker is along the coast.
The AI captures it without deleting it, and then the Player attacks from a Galley and captures the worker back. :)
Not sure why AI never sees attacks coming from the sea.

Anyway, nothing magical about renaming Workers.
 
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Kaitzilla

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Postgame Analysis Part 5
Link to Team Saves

Link to SGOTM 26 Game Rules (Requirements for Victory)


Link to Postgame Analysis Part 4

(Hold down Control on keyboard and left click links to open a new tab for easier viewing)


====================================

Homeslice
Turnset Report up to T156 and up to T161
Screenshots on T161

Phoenix Rising on Turn 161
Spoiler :








Phoenix Rising teched Physics, Electricity, and some of Refrigeration by T161.
They quadruple bulbed Electricity! :eek:
Their teching assets are 1596:gold:, 1 Great Artist, and an Academy in Capital City.
Population is at 86 with 5 workers.
On Turn 161, their tech path to victory is at 61811:science:/138k (44.79% complete)
55618:science: is domestic research and is from 6193 AI trades.
Spoiler :
Turn 161


Mysticism (78)
Mining (78)
The Wheel (93)
Priesthood (93)
unlocks temples
Pottery (124)
Meditation (124)
Masonry (124)
Polytheism (156)
(Got for free from Charlemagne! :goodjob:)
Sailing (156)
Bronze Working (187)
Writing (187)
Monotheism (187)
(Got for free from Saladin! :goodjob:)
Literature (312) (Got for free from Peter! :goodjob:)
Iron Working (312) (Got for free from Peter! :goodjob:)
Mathematics (390)
Aesthetics (468)
(Got for free from Peter! :goodjob:)
Drama (468)
Alphabet (468)
Monarchy (468)
(Got for free from Peter! :goodjob:)
Code of Laws (546)
Calendar (546)
Construction (546)
(Got for free from Sitting Bull! :goodjob:)
Currency (624)
Compass (624)
Metal Casting (702)
Theology (780)
Music (936)
Optics (936)
Paper (936)
Machinery (1092)
Feudalism (1092)
(Got for free from Peter! :goodjob:)
Banking (1092) (Got for free from Peter! :goodjob:)
Civil Service (1248)
Philosophy (1248)

Engineering (1560)
Guilds (1560) (Got for free from Peter! :goodjob:)
Gunpowder (1872)
Liberalism (1683/2184)

Economics (2184)
Printing Press (2496)
Corporation (2496)
Nationalism (2808)
Education (2808)

Chemistry (2808)
Replaceable Parts (2808)
Astronomy (3120)
Military Tradition (3120)
Constitution (3120)
Scientific Method (3744)
Communism (4368)
Steel (4368)
Steam Power (4992)
Biology (5616)
Mass Media (5616)
Physics (6240)
Refrigeration (1055/6240)
Electricity (7020)

Assembly Line (7800)
Radio (9360)
Superconductors (10140)
Industrialism (10140)

Total - 138009:science:

100GPP Great Scientist used to bulb Philosophy complete (+1248:science:)
300GPP Great Scientist used to bulb Astronomy (+1671:science:)
400GPP Great Scientist used to bulb Astronomy complete (+1449:science:)
500GPP Great Scientist used to bulb Education (+1704:science:)
Free Great Artist from Music was used to start 1st Golden Age on T117
700GPP Great Scientist used to make an Academy in Capital City on T127
600GPP Great Merchant used for 1500:gold: trade mission to Mecca.
200GPP Great Engineer used to rush Taj Majal complete T134 in Northwest City for a 2nd Golden Age
900GPP Great Merchant used for 1700:gold: trade mission to Mecca.
800GPP Great Scientist used to bulb some of Electricity (+1755:science:)
1200GPP Great Scientist used to bulb some of Electricity (+1755:science:)
1400GPP Great Scientist used to bulb some of Electricity (+1755:science:)
Free Great Scientist from Physics was used to bulb Electricity complete (+1755:science:)
...
On T153 Charlemagne lost another city Munich to Germany.
HRE and Saladin signed a Cease Fire.
PR DOW'd Charlemagne T153 after connecting up Wheat to farm Great General Points with 3 Muskets + Medic Warrior and build shared war diplomacy.
PR reached Friendly with Germany on T153 due to shared war! (3rd Friendly AI)

1200GPP Great Scientist was born T154 in FarNW City!
1400GPP Great Scientist was born T158 in East City!

The Phoenixians cashed in their 900GPP Great Merchant T158 in a trade mission to Mecca (ToA + Harbor) for +1700:gold: (13 population PR capital)
PR's Russia also had a Harbor in Moscow at this point. :mad:

PR reach Pleased with France on T158 allowing an Iron trade.
Germany achieved Divine Right, and both Russia + Germany started teching Military Tradition.

On T159, PR bribed Louis to DOW Holy Roman Empire with Printing Press I think.
Only Saladin among the 4 new AI can not be bribed to war easily.

Free Great Scientist was born T160 from teching Physics!
Electricity was bulbed
with x4 Great Scientists! (1755:science: each)

By T161, PR has 12/30 Great General points from Muskets and Galleon+Caravel combat.
They are doing +684:science: per turn at 100% slider and have plenty of gold to keep it up.
They also have the Great Artist they need to bulb Mass Media and win the game.
The Corporation HQ is a toss up of either Cereal Mills from Economics free Great Merchant or from a future Northwest City National Epic Great Artist for Civilized Jewelers.


Homes Slices teched Liberalism, chose free Medicine (not essential, but unlocks Sushi!), and then teched a bit of Steel by T161.
Their teching assets are 240:gold:, 1 Great Scientist, and 1 Great Merchant
Population is at 49 with 8 Workers. (+2 Workers from Sitting Bull)
On Turn 161, their tech path to victory is at 51631:science:/137k (37.68% complete)
44767:science: is domestic research and 6864 is from AI trades.
Spoiler :
Turn 161


Mysticism (78)
Mining (78)
The Wheel (93)
Priesthood (93)
unlocks temples
Pottery (124)
Meditation (124)
Masonry (124)
Polytheism (156)
Sailing (156)
Bronze Working (187)
Writing (187)
Literature (312)
Iron Working (312)
(Got for free from Sitting Bull! :goodjob:)
Mathematics (390)
Aesthetics (468)

Drama (468)
Alphabet (468) (Got for free from Peter! :goodjob:)
Monarchy (468) (Got for free from Peter! :goodjob:)
Code of Laws (546)
Calendar (546)
(Got for free from Bismarck! :goodjob:)
Construction (546) (Got for free from Peter! :goodjob:)
Currency (624)
Compass (624)
(Got for free from Peter! :goodjob:)
Metal Casting (702)
Music (936)
Optics (936)
Paper (936)
Machinery (1092)
Feudalism (1092)
(Got for free from Peter! :goodjob:)
Banking (1092)
Civil Service (1248)
Philosophy (1248)
(Got for free from Peter! :goodjob:)
Engineering (1560) (Got for free from Peter! :goodjob:)
Guilds (1560)
Gunpowder (1872)

Liberalism (2184)
Economics (2184)

Printing Press (2496)
Corporation (2496)
Nationalism (2808)
Education (2808)
Chemistry (2808)

Replaceable Parts (2808)
Astronomy (3120)
Military Tradition (3120)
Constitution (3120)
Scientific Method (3744)

Communism (4368)
Steel (389/4368)
Steam Power (4992)
Mass Media (5616)
Biology (5616)
Physics (6240)
Refrigeration (6240)
Electricity (7020)
Assembly Line (7800)
Radio (9360)
Superconductors (10140)
Industrialism (10140)

Total - 137042:science:

100GPP Great Scientist was used to bulb a lot of Education (+1647:science:)
Free Great Artist from Music was used to start 1st Golden Age on T117
300GPP Great Scientist was used to bulb a lot of Printing Press (+1707:science:)
200GPP Great Artist was used to start a 2nd Golden Age
700GPP Great Merchant was also used to start a 2nd Golden Age
400GPP Great Scientist was used to bulb a lot of Chemistry (+1680:science:)
500GPP Great Scientist was used to bulb some of Scientific Method (+1680:science:)
800GPP Great Scientist was used to bulb some of Scientific Method (+1680:science:)
900GPP Great Scientist was used to bulb some of Biology (+1680:science:)
1000GPP Great Scientist was used to bulb some of Biology (+1680:science:)
1200GPP Great Scientist was used to bulb some of Biology (+1680:science:)


**Edit**
Will do more work later :sleep:
 
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lymond

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Correction: We Quadruple bulbed Electricity to the exact beaker :D
 

Kaitzilla

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Correction: We Quadruple bulbed Electricity to the exact beaker :D
Thanks :)
I correct mistakes as I go, sorry about so many edits in my posts. (terminal habit)

I want to enjoy Home Slices T152 tiny tech lead a few more minutes before I press ahead.
It was our last surge due solely to bulbing our whole great person population.
 

lymond

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:lol:
 

Gumbolt

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That was a great display of how to abuse golden ages for great people. Bulbing can be super powerful in this game.
Especially if you can trade for loads of techs you skipped. You cleared 2016AI beakers in traded AI techs up to T145. Nearly 700 beakers ahead on traded techs. We have corp, const and MT to come. Vs Astronomy, RP and Comms. This is one area HS will win by 1-2k.

T0-75.
PR 1463
HS 1634
HS stronger start commerce wise but PR focused on food.

T75-85
PR 3904-1463 -1248 (philosophy) = 1193
HS 3441-1634-1248 (Free CS) = 559 These numbers are for raw economy beakers so CS substracted.
PR up 634. beakers.

T85-95
PR 6197-3904= 2293
HS 4382-3441 = 941
PR up 1352 beakers.

T95-T105
PR 10091-6197-1671=2223
HS 5859-4382=1477
PR up 746 beakers.

T105 -T115
PR 14822-10091-1449 =3282
HS 9380-5859-1647 edu=1874
PR up 1408 beakers.

T115-125
PR 20279- 14822 -1704 edu bulb =3753
HS 12866-9380 =3486
PR up 267 beakers.

T125-135
PR 27082-20279 =6803
HS 20381-12866 = 7515
HS up 712 beakers.

T135-T145
PR 35687-27082=8605
HS 28607-20381 -1707 from Printing press= 6519
PR up 2086 (40% discount on SM)

T145-152 Raw beakers
PR 42015-35687=6418
HS 42910-8400-28607=5903.
PR up 515 beakers.

T152-T161
HS science between T152 and T161 was 44767-42910=1857bpt
PR science excluding bulbs. 55618-7020(4xGS bulb)-42015 =6583.
PR up 4726 beakers

PR Including electricity jumped 13603 beakers. 4726 beakers lost over 9 turns in terms of raw beakers? It would make sense as our science was about 684 on T 161.

Meaning HS averaged about 200 bpt in last 9 turns? What happened to HS science for last 9 turns? :eek: Starting to whip executives and other builds. Plus drafting musketmen. Absolutely killed HS science here.

What these figures maybe fail to take into account is the discount if an AI already has the tech. What impact does this have on distant ai? I think it only impacts the techs AI have who you have already met. As both teams have been trading techs from AI not sure this matters.

Beaker OF is not taken into account. E.g. Literature is half complete but no beakers into it at start of T125. I would need to go back and look at this. This would unlikely be above 500-600 beakers.

Other issue is where techs get a 40% discount due to 2 prequisite techs. E.g Scientific Methods and Gunpowder. Albeit bulbing gets you no discount on beakers.

So these figures are not perfect.

I will try and finish this beaker comparison to T0 if I can.
 
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