YossarianLives
Deity
Hey, not too bad. The turn flipped 20 minutes after I posted, and revealed one score increase: 2 points for RB!
Skullduggery Thread for Demohacking
- Thread starter YossarianLives
- Start date
Caledorn
Emperor
Good work!
I'll play the new turn shortly (which means the demos will be before most other teams have played their turn this turn).
Just chiming in to say I'm reading and reloading these threads of ours - and this one in particular - all the time, and I find it absolutely fascinating what you do with so little info.
Pleasure to be a part of this, KUTGW!!1!
YossarianLives
Deity
Hey, thanks for the nice feedback! I'm glad my post-spamming isn't annoying everyone on the team!
The demos are in, and there are a few changes here. They are all expected though, and associated with RB growing. The big one is Rival Best Food, which is now up to 12! That's their 3-food capital, the 6-food farmed resource, and the 3-1-0 unimproved Deer. Rival worst Mfg also went back up to 2, confirming that they went back to the Deer tile (and not FP or some other 3-food tile). Soldiers also went up 1k, which is from the extra pop point.
Thinking about this, I realized we can also figure out what tiles WPC and Uciv were working, based on when they grew and when their warriors came out. They both settled on T1 and grew on T9, so they were both working 3-food tiles. One warrior came out on T6, so that team was getting 3 hammers / turn. Since they were also getting 3 food, the only thing I can think of was a PH Cap working an unimproved Deer. Note that this would not be possible with our start (since the Deer would not have been in our initial 9 if we had moved to the PH), but it's pretty close.
The other warrior came out on T8, which is consistent with getting 2 hammers / turn from T1-T6 (PH start working unimproved Corn/Banana), then getting a border pop and getting 3 hammers / turn (switching to the Deer). This is possible with our start.
The demos are in, and there are a few changes here. They are all expected though, and associated with RB growing. The big one is Rival Best Food, which is now up to 12! That's their 3-food capital, the 6-food farmed resource, and the 3-1-0 unimproved Deer. Rival worst Mfg also went back up to 2, confirming that they went back to the Deer tile (and not FP or some other 3-food tile). Soldiers also went up 1k, which is from the extra pop point.
Thinking about this, I realized we can also figure out what tiles WPC and Uciv were working, based on when they grew and when their warriors came out. They both settled on T1 and grew on T9, so they were both working 3-food tiles. One warrior came out on T6, so that team was getting 3 hammers / turn. Since they were also getting 3 food, the only thing I can think of was a PH Cap working an unimproved Deer. Note that this would not be possible with our start (since the Deer would not have been in our initial 9 if we had moved to the PH), but it's pretty close.
The other warrior came out on T8, which is consistent with getting 2 hammers / turn from T1-T6 (PH start working unimproved Corn/Banana), then getting a border pop and getting 3 hammers / turn (switching to the Deer). This is possible with our start.
I have noticed that RB are logging on frequently during the turn. Do the demo screens change to show what changes you make during the turn, or only after EOT? If you EOT does it change immediately or only when the last team ends?
Oh, and great work here, I'm following it avidly.
Oh, and great work here, I'm following it avidly.
Arkipeller
Ancient of Lore
It does change during the turn I guess, since slave-chopping seem to show at once I guess stuff like loosing military does too.
YossarianLives
Deity
Correct. The Demos show the other teams' yields at the moment the screenshot is taken. It is entirely possible for teams to switch their tiles throughout the turn, giving different Demos numbers depending on what tiles they are working. Lord Parkin especially is known for his willingness and ability to enter the game frequently in order to throw off demo-hacking efforts. In his last game that I followed, he routinely selected techs he did not actually intend to research, logged in last, switched to his true tech, ended turn, then changed back to his "dummy" tech before logging out so that even teams with Research visibility could not know which tech he was going for or how many turns were left on it.
That said, I don't think that's what's going on here. The majority opinion at RB seems to be that this is a "cheap" tactic and it tends to be controversial over there. Also, the demo screens that we are seeing actually seem to match up with what would be in RB's best interest, so I don't think they have some other "hidden" tiles they are working after we take the demos screenshot. RB has dozens of team members who are probably very interested in going into the game to take a look around themselves, so that is what I think explains the multiple log-ins per turn.
But I'm definitely keeping this in mind. Especially when I have some predictions that end up being completely off base, I'll blame it on some other teams messing with the demos to throw off my calculations!
Oh, and a final note on this. The graphs don't lie, and cannot be manipulated in the same manner as the demos screen. They show the Food, Mfg and GNP yields at End of Turn, so those will always show what the team actually worked. Once we get graphs on teams, I might request screenshots of certain graphs from time to time for this reason. The downside, of course, is that since they show the End of Turn numbers, they will always be one turn behind (Demos show yields for Turn X, while graphs show yields for Turn X-1)
That said, I don't think that's what's going on here. The majority opinion at RB seems to be that this is a "cheap" tactic and it tends to be controversial over there. Also, the demo screens that we are seeing actually seem to match up with what would be in RB's best interest, so I don't think they have some other "hidden" tiles they are working after we take the demos screenshot. RB has dozens of team members who are probably very interested in going into the game to take a look around themselves, so that is what I think explains the multiple log-ins per turn.
But I'm definitely keeping this in mind. Especially when I have some predictions that end up being completely off base, I'll blame it on some other teams messing with the demos to throw off my calculations!
Oh, and a final note on this. The graphs don't lie, and cannot be manipulated in the same manner as the demos screen. They show the Food, Mfg and GNP yields at End of Turn, so those will always show what the team actually worked. Once we get graphs on teams, I might request screenshots of certain graphs from time to time for this reason. The downside, of course, is that since they show the End of Turn numbers, they will always be one turn behind (Demos show yields for Turn X, while graphs show yields for Turn X-1)
YossarianLives
Deity
The turn has flipped with a 2-point score increase for the Spanish, so their cap has grown to size 2.
YossarianLives
Deity
We know Spanish Poly grew this turn. Surely they built a Worker first, but if they did, then T16 is very quick for a pop growth. The only way I can see this happening is if they completed their worker in 10 turns. That means they need 6 production towards the Worker on each turn. They could have done this with a PH start (2 hammers) and 4-yield tile (forested Deer), or a 3-food capital (Bananas), and 4-yield tile (forested Deer). After they finished their worker, they grew in 6 turns. That means they were getting 4
/ turn.
Therefore, we know the Spaniards have a 3 capital, with a forested grassland Deer (31
) in their initial 9 tiles, and no water in their BFC.
Definitely not possible with a start mirrored with our own, but it does seem very similar to our start.
Ok, on to the Demos. Some very interesting stuff here. The first thing I want to point out is something I should have realized last turn. RB went up to 8k soldiers with their tech on T9, which tied them with Rival Best. They grew last turn, adding another 1k to their soldier count. So Rival Best should have gone up to 9k, but it stayed at 8k!
Therefore, we know Realms Beyond was the team that lost their starting Warrior to a barb animal on Turn 11!
Ok, now on to the Soldier count for this turn, which went up 3k total. 1k was from the Spaniards growing to Size 2. The other 2k must be a Warrior build, and we even know who built it. Rival Worst has been 2k since the start of the game, and at this point, CivPlayers were the only remaining team still at 2k. This turn Rival Worst went up to 4k Soldiers, so CivPlayers must have built the Warrior. They started with a Scout, so this is their first Warrior.
/ turn. Therefore, we know the Spaniards have a 3
capital, with a forested grassland Deer (31) in their initial 9 tiles, and no water in their BFC.Definitely not possible with a start mirrored with our own, but it does seem very similar to our start.
Ok, on to the Demos. Some very interesting stuff here. The first thing I want to point out is something I should have realized last turn. RB went up to 8k soldiers with their tech on T9, which tied them with Rival Best. They grew last turn, adding another 1k to their soldier count. So Rival Best should have gone up to 9k, but it stayed at 8k!
Therefore, we know Realms Beyond was the team that lost their starting Warrior to a barb animal on Turn 11!
Ok, now on to the Soldier count for this turn, which went up 3k total. 1k was from the Spaniards growing to Size 2. The other 2k must be a Warrior build, and we even know who built it. Rival Worst has been 2k since the start of the game, and at this point, CivPlayers were the only remaining team still at 2k. This turn Rival Worst went up to 4k Soldiers, so CivPlayers must have built the Warrior. They started with a Scout, so this is their first Warrior.
My point on RB logging in is that they might be looking at the demo screen several times a turn, to see what the other teams are doing. If teams change their MM during the turn, for example, this can reveal what improvement they chose to build.
If teams change their MM during the turn, for example, this can reveal what improvement they chose to build.YossarianLives
Deity
Oh yeah, I bet you're right about that! They log in after most teams end turn, and they're probably checking to see if any of the demos changed from before the other team played.
Wow, awesome! I'm still amazed every time you pull a definite conclusion out of these numbers Yossarian, I would've imagined it would be a lot harder with so many teams. I'm very glad to hear that RB lost their initial warrior, they are another team that I expect will realize the importance of early contact and beginning diplomacy ASAP. If their bad luck with early exploration holds back their first contact that's great news for us.
Didn't CivFr (Maya) grow to size 2 this turn? I just looked back at the score and Spanish Poly (Zulu) is still at 35.
Didn't CivFr (Maya) grow to size 2 this turn? I just looked back at the score and Spanish Poly (Zulu) is still at 35.
YossarianLives
Deity
Haha, grant, you're absolutely right! I saw on civstats that "beto" went up in score, and I guess that was just too close to "boa" in my head. Ignore all the analysis on Spanish Poly's tile yields. I will need to re-evaluate with CivFr as the team that grew.
...Ok, took another look. This actually makes more sense, since we already knew that CivFr had a 3 capital (they had Rival Best 6 food on T0). So, replace Spanish Poly with CivFr in my analysis above. Sorry about that guys! The only difference is that they do have one lake tile in their initial 9.
...Ok, took another look. This actually makes more sense, since we already knew that CivFr had a 3
capital (they had Rival Best 6 food on T0). So, replace Spanish Poly with CivFr in my analysis above. Sorry about that guys! The only difference is that they do have one lake tile in their initial 9.YossarianLives
Deity
In my previous post, I didnt even mention the new Rival Best GNP, now at 24! I feel this must be Civfr with their Cultural GNP boost. They would need to be applying 16 commerce towards research on each turn to get up to 24 GNP. They are size two, so they could be working two commerce tiles (2 FPs?). This gives them 12 base commerce (8 palace, 1 center tile, 2 worked tiles, 1 free research = 12). Civfr is Maya so they start with Mining and Myst. They could be researching Masonry, giving them the 40% bonus for knowing the pre-req and an optional pre-req. Thats FLOOR (12*1.4) = 16. If this is what theyre doing, they should finish Masonry on Turn 20. Theyre Creative, so obviously theyre not going for SH. Maybe TGW? They researched their first tech on T11, which I believe was Agri.
If teams who researched Mining on T9 are going after BW now, they should finish it around T23-T26.
And I just checked civstats to see that the turn has flipped. Civforum.de and Apolyton have each gained two points, which is each of them growing one pop. Im actually surprised to see them grow this early. They settled on T1, so they have grown in the same number of turns as Civfr, who I do believe must have a 3-food capital to have grown this quickly. Does this mean that Civforum.de and Apolyton also have 3-food capitals? It would seem so to me. This demonstrates another slight difference between starts, since we wouldn't have lost a turn moving to a 3-food capital.
If teams who researched Mining on T9 are going after BW now, they should finish it around T23-T26.
And I just checked civstats to see that the turn has flipped. Civforum.de and Apolyton have each gained two points, which is each of them growing one pop. Im actually surprised to see them grow this early. They settled on T1, so they have grown in the same number of turns as Civfr, who I do believe must have a 3-food capital to have grown this quickly. Does this mean that Civforum.de and Apolyton also have 3-food capitals? It would seem so to me. This demonstrates another slight difference between starts, since we wouldn't have lost a turn moving to a 3-food capital.
YossarianLives
Deity
Very happy to see our Fast Worker properly named in-game!
We already went over the two growths this turn, and how this means that those teams must be producing 6 per turn. The two growths also increase total Soldier count by 1k each, but we actually saw a total Soldier increase of 8k this turn. That means that an additional 6k Soldier points were produced this turn. Im going to assume that 3 new warriors were built (could be barracks, archers or galleys, but warriors make the most sense). At least, we know that Poly produced a Warrior in addition to their Pop growth, since they were Rival Best at 8k, and a pop + Warrior brings them up to the new Rival Best of 11k.
Ill give one of the warriors to the other team that hasnt grown yet, Spanish Poly, since its possible that they are slower to grow because they chose a production tile to get the warrior out. The other one Ill give to RB, hoping that they are delaying their micro plan in order to get out a faster warrior to replace the one that was eaten. Otherwise, they would probably be going max growth, working their 6 farm and 3 Deer tile to grow again fast. Rival Best food is still 12, but at this point its possible for several teams who grew recently and had similar starts to have farmed their own food resource and be working their own Deer tile for the 12 food we see in the demos.
Rival Best Mfg of 6 is starting to get pretty high. Thats some decent production power at this stage.
We already went over the two growths this turn, and how this means that those teams must be producing 6
per turn. The two growths also increase total Soldier count by 1k each, but we actually saw a total Soldier increase of 8k this turn. That means that an additional 6k Soldier points were produced this turn. Im going to assume that 3 new warriors were built (could be barracks, archers or galleys, but warriors make the most sense). At least, we know that Poly produced a Warrior in addition to their Pop growth, since they were Rival Best at 8k, and a pop + Warrior brings them up to the new Rival Best of 11k.Ill give one of the warriors to the other team that hasnt grown yet, Spanish Poly, since its possible that they are slower to grow because they chose a production tile to get the warrior out. The other one Ill give to RB, hoping that they are delaying their micro plan in order to get out a faster warrior to replace the one that was eaten. Otherwise, they would probably be going max growth, working their 6
farm and 3 Deer tile to grow again fast. Rival Best food is still 12, but at this point its possible for several teams who grew recently and had similar starts to have farmed their own food resource and be working their own Deer tile for the 12 food we see in the demos.Rival Best Mfg of 6 is starting to get pretty high. Thats some decent production power at this stage.
YossarianLives
Deity
The turn has flipped, and I have a lot of thoughts about the two score increases, but I’ll wait until we have the demos so I’m not shooting in the dark.
Civfr: 43 (+6)
RB: 40 (+3)
Civfr: 43 (+6)
RB: 40 (+3)
cav scout
The Continuum
- Joined
- Apr 4, 2008
- Messages
- 2,630
Here you go These are from the start of the turn, only RB has played their turn so far. Also I found in interesting that Lizzy(Apolyton) logged in right after me, presumeably to check if I did anything. Guess they are tracking the demographics too...
These are from the start of the turn, only RB has played their turn so far. Also I found in interesting that Lizzy(Apolyton) logged in right after me, presumeably to check if I did anything. Guess they are tracking the demographics too...Spoiler :
YossarianLives
Deity
Thanks for the demos cav scout. I wrote up an analysis of the turn last night, but I guess I forgot to post it! I'll have to do that when I get home tonight. Basically, I believe Civfr researched Hunting, RB has not thrown off their micro plan in response to losing their warrior, and everyone except us has built their first warrior now. Also, another team, not Civfr, has that high 24 GNP, but I do not know who.
YossarianLives
Deity
Yeah, so, I wrote this up on Word last night, and then I guess I went to bed without posting it. Whoops! At any rate, without further ado, the demohacking:
Lets start with the score increases. Civfr is the first to research a second tech, having finished their first on Turn 11. 7 turns isnt enough to finish Masonry (134), even with the high GNP that we see in the demos. I think it makes sense that they researched Hunting (67), seeing as how their yields indicate they have a Deer in their BFC. Its also possible they got Fishing (67) or TW (100), but neither of those seem likely.
RB grew to pop 3 this turn, just three turns after they grew to pop 2. This means that they did not alter their micro plan, and that warrior last turn wasnt them. However, they could have gotten a Warrior this turn while working their 6-food farm and 3-food, 1-hammer Deer. I wonder if theyll switch to a settler now, or keep growing with warriors.
Total Soldiers went up 6k this turn. Were giving 2k to Civfr for Hunting, and 2k to RB for the T18 warrior. Thats one more warrior built this turn, and a warrior from last turn that we need to re-assign. Ill go ahead and give them to the two remaining teams who had not built warriors (civforum.de and Civfr). I guess it doesnt really matter which team got it on T17 and which on T18.
Since Civfr isnt responsible for the 24 GNP, Im really not sure who has that. Youd think it would be a Fin team. There are only two techs that can give the 40% bonus: AH (w/ TW and Agri researched), or Masonry (w/ Mining and Myst researched). Civforum.de, Spanish Poly, CivPlayers and Uciv are the only teams capable of getting this bonus, but these are all the non-Fin teams. Ill keep thinking about it, but Im stuck for now.
With 11 Food, were still only in 3rd place. I dont know how the rankings work, does this mean theres another team with 12 food for sure, or several of us tied at 11? I believe there are a couple teams with the capability of getting up to 12 food at pop 2, so Im really not sure here. What is interesting is that neither Food nor Mfg Best went up when RB grew this turn. Since they were already Rival Best Food, they must have put their next citizen on a tile without any Food, probably their forested PH that they worked while building their worker.
Lets start with the score increases. Civfr is the first to research a second tech, having finished their first on Turn 11. 7 turns isnt enough to finish Masonry (134), even with the high GNP that we see in the demos. I think it makes sense that they researched Hunting (67), seeing as how their yields indicate they have a Deer in their BFC. Its also possible they got Fishing (67) or TW (100), but neither of those seem likely.
RB grew to pop 3 this turn, just three turns after they grew to pop 2. This means that they did not alter their micro plan, and that warrior last turn wasnt them. However, they could have gotten a Warrior this turn while working their 6-food farm and 3-food, 1-hammer Deer. I wonder if theyll switch to a settler now, or keep growing with warriors.
Total Soldiers went up 6k this turn. Were giving 2k to Civfr for Hunting, and 2k to RB for the T18 warrior. Thats one more warrior built this turn, and a warrior from last turn that we need to re-assign. Ill go ahead and give them to the two remaining teams who had not built warriors (civforum.de and Civfr). I guess it doesnt really matter which team got it on T17 and which on T18.
Since Civfr isnt responsible for the 24 GNP, Im really not sure who has that. Youd think it would be a Fin team. There are only two techs that can give the 40% bonus: AH (w/ TW and Agri researched), or Masonry (w/ Mining and Myst researched). Civforum.de, Spanish Poly, CivPlayers and Uciv are the only teams capable of getting this bonus, but these are all the non-Fin teams. Ill keep thinking about it, but Im stuck for now.
With 11 Food, were still only in 3rd place. I dont know how the rankings work, does this mean theres another team with 12 food for sure, or several of us tied at 11? I believe there are a couple teams with the capability of getting up to 12 food at pop 2, so Im really not sure here. What is interesting is that neither Food nor Mfg Best went up when RB grew this turn. Since they were already Rival Best Food, they must have put their next citizen on a tile without any Food, probably their forested PH that they worked while building their worker.
talonschild
Drive-By NESer
Based on the Imports/Exports, when there is a tie we come in second. Only one team ranks ahead of us in a tie. If we are in third, either we have two at more than 11 or one at more and the team that arbitrarily outranks us at 11.
