Skullduggery Thread for Demohacking

I didn't even realize that a turn order existed with Simultaneous turns.
Yes, such turn order exists. It is determined by in which slot (from top to down) each civ is set when choosing civs/leaders to make the game in the beginning. Just as Dave said, the turn order can be seen in the login screen - those on top are those first in the turn order and those down are later. The turn order is used to break few ties. Some of them minor and negligible (like who is in the higher position if few teams have equal points) or it may be game changing (like if two teams come to something like building a world wonder, finishing technology which gives religion/Great Person/free technology in the same turn).

Just few turns ago I had lost Hinduism in the ISDG2 warmup game to someone higher in the turn order who discovered it the same turn as me. :)
 
Wow, that's a late date for Hinduism to fall! Hopefully we don't get into that situation. I will try to keep a close eye on the teams ahead of us in the turn order when we're going for a religion/wonder/etc, to give us an idea if we're in a race.

At any rate, the turn has flipped, with three score increases.

CivPlayers got 3 points for their capital growing to size 3. That one's easy, it's their capital growing to size 3.

CivFr got their land points for their second ring. We were expecting this, but they only got 8 points (48->56), where I was predicting 9 points. I must have been misunderstanding the way the game calculates points for land increases. I think I get it now, though, so I'll go back and revise my predictions for the land score increases that are coming up for us non-Creative teams.

And finally, Poly got a 2 point increase. This must be a pop increase, but Apolyton just grew to size 3 on T21, which means the capital has grown again to size 4 in just 2 turns! This should confirm that they had the Top Food at 17. I wonder if they're also growing to Pop 5 before starting their Settler. If so, they have an advantage on us, since they seem to have a 3-food capital.
 
Technically I'm analyzing two turns here, but there were no changes from T23 to T24, so really we're just looking at the T23 changes. There are some interesting things to note.

We already knew that Apolyton grew to size 4 this turn, and the demos screen proves it with a new Rival Best population of 48000. Since Poly had Rival Best Food at size 3, you'd think that Best Food would increase now that they've grown. However, Best Food actually fell this turn. Not only did their new tile pick up 0 food, but they actually switched one of their other citizens to a lower-food tile. Rival Best Mfg went up to 7 this turn, so I am guessing that was Poly switching focus from food to hammers. That means they are almost certainly done growing for a bit while they build a Settler (or maybe another Worker).

There was also a total power increase of 3k this turn. Poly was previously the Rival Best in this category with 13k Soldiers, and Rival Best increased this turn to 16k, so we know the entire increase was from them. They got 1k for growing, so they also must have completed another Warrior this turn.
 
Since we played the two turns back to back those screenshots were taken within minutes of each other. When I log in to hit end turn I will check to see if the demographics have changed during the course of turn 24.
 
Haven't had as much time as I'd like to analyze the new demos, but wanted to mention the most important stuff now. This may change tomorrow once I've pondered it over a little longer.

WPC got three points for growing to size 3

Spanish Poly got 14 points for land tiles (8 pts) and a tech (6 pts). I'm pretty sure the tech was Bronze Working based on the soldier increase.

CivPlayers got two points for growing to size 4.

RB got 8 points for land tiles.

UCiv got 6 points for a tech. I'm pretty sure it was AH based on soldier points.

Worst Soldiers went from 5k to 8k. This didn't line up in the spreadsheet unless I re-assigned the T20 Warrior build from CP (which was a complete guess), to UCiv, so I am pretty confident that Poly and Uciv have each built two warriors, and everyone else has built one.

One quick question for the team. Normally CivStats shows the turn ending, and then lists the score increases. This turn, it showed the score increases, and then the turn ending. I don't think it's significant, but any ideas why this might be?
 
WPC got three points for growing to size 3

CivPlayers got two points for growing to size 4.

I don't understand. I thought it was 2.43 points per population so...
pop 1 = 2.43 rounded down to 2
pop 2 = 4.86 rounded up to 5
pop 3 = 7.29 rounded down to 7
pop 4 = 9.72 rounded up to 10

so it should be 2 points for pop 3 and 3 points for pop 4.
 
There were a few score increases on Turn 26, but these were all pretty straightforward to decipher.

WPC, civforum.de, Poly, CivPlayers and UCiv each got 8 points for land from their T6 border pops this turn.

RB got 2 points for growing to size 4 (why it took them 8 turns to grow, when it only took them three turns to grow last time, I couldn't tell you).

...

What's really throwing me off are these soldier points. I can't figure out how to get everything to add up. We were doing fine until Turn 25.

On T24, Rival Worst was 5k soldiers, and Rival Best was 16k soldiers. All the predictions on the spreadsheet also lined up so that the Rival Average was correct, too. Then, on T25, we had a total power increase of 11k Soldiers, with Rival Worst going up from 5k to 8k, and Rival Best going up from 16k to 18k. We have the following hints from T25 to help us assign these soldier points:

CivPlayers grew to size 4 for 1k soldiers (this is automatic, no guessing needed)
Spanish Poly researched a tech in 16 turns.
UCiv researched a tech in 13 turns.

What makes the most sense by far is that Spanish Poly research BW for 8k soldiers and UCiv researched AH for 2k soldiers. This accounts for the entire soldier increase this turn. However, it does not explain how worst went up from 5k to 8k, or how best went up from 16k to 18k. I thought re-assigning and earlier Warrior build would solve this, soI gave UCiv the T20 Warrior to make things add up. But when I did that, it meant that the T24 Rival Worst changed to 6k instead of 5k. Plus, it does not account for a Rival best score of 18k. Right now Best is Poly at 16k, and I could get them up to 18k by assigning them another Warrior, but I already have three Warriors assigned to them. If anyone has any ideas about how to make all these numbers line up right, I'd appreciate the input!
 
Yossarian. I'm trying to work through these power numbers, but am a little bit confused. I'll at least post my thoughts in case they give you any ideas.

To have a rival civ at 18 power requires that it be one of the civs with 4 population. Otherwise their power would be and odd number. The only way around that is if we believe someone has built a barracks or an archer, which seems unlikely.

The rival civ with 8 power also needs to be one of those civs with 4 population. It seems impossible that RB or CP would be at 18 power.

The only sensible assumption I see is that Apolyton has built another warrior. They have demogame experience, they may have concluded that diplomacy is absolutely critical, and have put huge emphasis on warrior production in order to meet other teams.

The rival worst score still seems problematic, RB could not have been the 5 power team because they have the wheel. So either you're right about it having been UCiv in the past, or we're badly wrong about the power of some of the other teams. If UCiv was the worst team last turn, they can't possibly be the worst one now because they have an odd number of points from population. This means either we're wrong about RB or CP building a warrior in the past, or they've just lost one this turn. It also requires that UCiv gained at least 4 points of power this turn, either a different tech, or tech and a warrior build.

At this point I'm getting very confused about how to reach the 11 power increase for the turn. I'm not sure what powerless techs are options for Spanish Poly, or what else they might have researched, possibly in combination with warrior deaths on their team or others.

I'm hesitant to back any solution that has multiple warrior deaths this turn, that just seems too lucky for us.
 
Whoops, I made a big mistake. I read the demos wrong and the Rival Best did not go up to 18k on T25, it’s still at 16k. I hadn’t even thought about narrowing down the options based on population. After reading grant2004’s post, I thought about this some more with a better perspective, and I think I figured it out.

Spanish Poly was Rival Worst at 5k. This means they have built 0 Warriors this whole game, and their only unit is their starting Scout (if it is still alive). On T25 they researched BW, taking them up to 13k total, and leaving CivPlayers in last place with 8k. Uciv had only 7k soldiers on T24, but when they researched AH on T25, they went up to 9k. Here’s a picture of the Power tab from T25.

Spoiler :
T25Power.png


We’re right back on track now. Thanks very much Grant!

Another thing I missed on T25 was that CivFr got their second cultural expansion. After a quick count, it looks like they should get 16 new tiles in their border. They now have 35,000 total land tiles, so there is one more water tile within their new cultural borders.

…

Now we’ve got the T26 demos showing another 5k Soldier increase. Worst went from 8k to 9k. RB grew this turn, taking them from 9k to 10k. Since no techs were researched, 4k must come from Warrior builds. One of them must have been from CivPlayers since they were Worst at 8k. That leaves WPC, Uciv and Civfr tied at Worst with 9k now. I’m giving the other Warrior to Spanish Poly, since we just figured out that they hadn’t built any Warriors yet.
 
Ah, that makes sense. Glad that helped. Now I'm wondering what Spanish Poly has been up to though. I think you'd concluded that they went worker first correct? Then they grew by turn 16, and have stayed at 2 population, while only producing one warrior, maybe. I'm wondering what they were building during that time they grew, maybe just pre-building this warrior, maybe scouts that don't show up on the power increases? Then it's a question of if they went with an early settler (without any protection!) or if they've built two workers. Otherwise they'd surely have grown by now right?
 
At first I thought they were building an early settler, but like you mentioned, that doesn't make any sense without a warrior to protect it. So now I'm thinking worker->pre-build warrior while growing->worker->finish warrior->chop out settler with BW and two workers (maybe not until after growing to pop 3?).
 
Oh, those sneaky French!

Turn 27 rolled over with 2 score increases. Civforum.de got 6 points for a tech, and Civfr got 3 points for a pop increase. Based on the timing, I tentatively marked down Pottery on the spreadsheet for the Germans, and updated the French capital to size 3.

Then the demos come in and things don't look right. First off, Rival best land area increased to 41000, but nobody should have gotten a border pop. And average pop didn't go up by 15k which is the change from size 2->size 3, but only 1k, which is the size of a new city.

Civfr's capital didn't grow, they are the first to plant their second city!

And they waited to be last to play on T26 so they could immediately plant the city and have the score increase blend in with the others from the end of turn, making it look like their capital grew. It looks like they started with a Worker, grew on T16, finished a Warrior on T17, and then it took them 10 turns to build the Settler and plant the city.

As far as the tech, I still think it's Pottery. That comes with 0 soldier points, but we had a 2k increase this turn, which I think was a warrior build. Seeing as how RB grew again recently, I'm putting it down for them on the spreadsheet.

Turn 28 has two more techs researched and another pop increase. I'll take a closer look at those when the demos come in.
 
This was a tough turn for me to figure out. We had three score increases. CivPlayers got 3 points for growing their capital to size 5. This is verified by the Top 5 Cities and Demos screenshots. Poly and RB each got 6-point increases for tech. There was a 2k total soldier increase this turn.

First thing we know for sure is that Poly researched something without soldier points, since Rival Best didn't increase. The tech took them 7 turns, so I'm ruling out everything that costs 134 or above. That only leaves Fishing and Myst. I can't think of why they would research either one, so I'll put them down for Fishing for now...

That means RB finished a tech with no more than 2k soldier points. They only took 6 turns to complete their tech. Rival Best GNP hasn't exceeded 21, so they could not be putting more than 15 commerce per turn into research. This means their tech must have cost less than 100. That leaves us with Fishing, Hunting or Myst. Here, Hunting makes the most sense to me, as I believe they have a Deer in their BFC. That means they are responsible for the 2k soldier increase.

Another thing I noticed is that with 14k Soldiers, we're ranked #2. But the spreadsheet had Poly with 16k and Spanish Poly with 15k. That can't be right. This means that Spanish Poly only has 13k soldier points, meaning they still don't have any warriors built in this game! :eek: They sure talk a lot about bashing heads with a non-existent army. With BW in, though, this can change for them very quickly, and with potentially more powerful units.

I re-assigned the T26 warrior to WPC. This makes sense to me since they grow to pop 4 on T29. WPC actually went up 8 points on T29, meaning they also finished a Tech. They had the only score increase on the new turn.
 
I think some guys on RB are obsessed with winning the oracle slingshot... might explain myst.
 
Breaking news!

Civforum.de hasn't ended turn yet, but earlier today they logged in and their score went up by two points. This is for a pop increase, and since it happened in the middle of the turn, it must be them planting their second city.

This means Civforum.de has a size-3 capital and a size-1 city. Civfr has a size-2 capital and a size-1 city. The other thing we know is that Best Land Area only went up by 6k when Civfr settled, so their second city has three tiles in it's initial 9 that were already in their culture. Since they are Cre, that would be three tiles from their capital's third ring. When the second city's borders expand on T32, we'll know how many tiles in its BFC it shares with the capital's first three rings. If we can get a new screenshot of our demos when we play this turn, I can determine how many tiles civforum.de's second city shares with its capital.
 
I think that Spanishpoly might be doing the same as us... as in faking everyone out with their Civ choice. They pick a leader and Civ that everyone is afraid of and then they are free to do what they want.

As for the Oracle race... it seems obvious that RB would be obsessed with "winning" such a thing. Hopefully we don't get involved with such folly as racing for Oracle.:(
 
That sounds about right. Clear away any risk of getting DOW'ed in the ancient age because nobody wants to fight against Boa of Zulu. I just wonder if they sacrificed too much. We can definitely take advantage of Spi without touching Spies, but Agg and Cha really don't contribute much if you're not going to be warring.

I haven't seen the Oracle as a dominating strategy on RB recently, so I'm still not convinced that they researched Myst. Regardless, I don't think the Oracle is the right play for us right now. Let's just develop a strong, solid start and take advantage of our strengths (great diplo skills, great micro skills, early cottages for our Fin trait, etc.).

Back to the demo-hacking!

WPC picked up a tech on T29. It's easier to eliminate possibilities when we know the soldier increases, but I'm not sure if cav scout had a chance to grab screenshots when he played our turn (thanks for taking care of that, by the way). So, let's look at all the possibilities. It took them 7 turns to complete, and based on best and worst GNP, they could apply between 10-15 commerce per turn towards research. That means the tech must cost between 70-105. That leaves us with Hunting (67 cost - 2k soldiers), Myst (84 - 0k), or TW (100 - 4k). Of these, TW seems to make the most sense to me, so that's what I'm putting on the spreadsheet.

There are no score changes so far on T30. If there are any increases later in the turn, that's more teams planting cities.
 
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