I am going to go with logic for AI nuke bans for now:
[The old logic stays, AIs that really want to get nuke happy won't ban and AIs that are behind will not ban]
The AI will look at whether it has the SDI and will consider its own personality. Has SDI - less likely to ban.... errm, what the heck is up with SDI having 75% interception probability? I could swear they wanted to make it 50%. The more the AI likes building military units, the less likely a ban. Warmonger AI personalities always less likely to ban. If the game is set Aggressive AI, less likely to ban again. As an additional consideration, if the AI civ has built some nukes and is the only civ in the world with the SDI, it's much less likely to ban.
Without modding the leader personalities, here are some values.
Gandhi, no SDI: will ban 85% of the time.
Gandhi, SDI: will ban 60% of the time.
Monty, no SDI: will ban 30% of the time
Monty, SDI: will ban 5% of the time
Ragnar, no SDI: will ban 20% of the time
Ragnar, SDI: will never ban
With Aggressive AI, they become considerably less likely to ban.
Aggressive Gandhi without SDI will ban 70% of the time, with SDI he'll ban only 20% of the time. So if they have the SDI, most leaders won't ban under Aggressive AI.