This might not end up being the most exciting match to watch on the stream, but I'm glad to have an oddball change-of-pace game like this one, and it's proven an interesting one to analyze as well.
Five peaceful builder personalities with just one warmonger in the mix could make for a quiet game after the early stages, especially since Pacal is the only one of this bunch who will declare war at Pleased. I think there's a real chance that this could end up being the first match in AI Survivor history where nobody dies! I'll go on record and predict that we see this at least one in the alternate histories, if nothing else. Religion is also likely to be very important to how this game plays out since everybody places at least a moderate emphasis on faith. That might get some blood to be shed if nothing else does.
Before leader analysis, though, the Leader Seeding Watch for this matchup!
Pacal II currently occupies the 5th seed with 37 total points. He is only five points ahead of the top Pool 2 leader and so could in theory be in some danger; however, I suspect that he has enough of a buffer that the danger of him losing his Pool One status is low. If he scores any points in this game, he will displace Kublai Khan and move up to the fourth seed. A win with at least one kill would move him past Justinian and into the third seed. That's the highest he can go in a single game, though.
Darius I currently occupies the 10th seed with 29 total points. While he is only 5 points ahead of the top unseeded leader, he is high enough in Pool Two that I don't think he faces any meaningful danger of losing his seed this season. Moving up, on the other hand... A win would move Darius into Pool One, displacing Stalin. A win with at least one kill would move him into the seventh seed ahead of Gilgamesh. A dominant three-kill win would move him ahead of Julius Caesar and possibly Pacal, well into the ranks of Pool One. Darius as a Pool One leader?!?!? The possibility is very, very real.
The remaining four leaders all have low enough power ranking scores that there is no chance of them moving into the ranks of the seeded leaders in this game, although with multiple strong performances across the season, it's feasible for some of them...
Now then. Leader analysis for this game specifically.
Right now, Darius is essentially co-favorites with Pacal in the picking contest, and I'd say that him being at the top is correct. Central positions can be dangerous, but in this largely peaceful field, I think it's more of a strength here. Darius has the most room to expand peacefully, the most options to expand militarily, Financial trait, and is on the right side of the numbers. He has to have the best odds of winning, especially since all the other leaders have notable issues.
Pacal is the co-favorite, but I think this is another case of too much picking based on reputation. I do not like his position on this map; he's stuck in the corner against the coast, has capital resources that don't match his starting techs at all, and perhaps most importantly is on the wrong side of the numbers. His peaceweight is often a boon to him, but here it will work against him; I expect him to get harassed too much to be able to pull ahead. Unless Darius goes after him I don't know how likely he is to actually die and his Wildcard or even second place odds might be decent, and there's probably games in the alternate histories where he gets left alone, something happens to Darius, and then Pacal's traits hand him the win. He's honestly probably in the top three of most likely to win this map even with all the issues with this position. However, I think the odds of him winning are significantly lower than they are for Darius.
Ramesses has been largely dismissed in the Discord but I actually kind of like his position? At any rate, he has a wheat that he can immediately farm, and several nearby gold resources to potentially settle; I especially like his position if he gets that juicy floodplains region between himself and Darius. (If Darius gets it, on the other hand, it's probably game over for everybody else already.) There's also a generous helping of tundra to his south, and while that's not great land, it is still land, and every fishing village he gets there will help his cause that much more. With no major threats near at hand, he's a great bet to survive the match and I think he has solid odds of second place. Winning is going to be a tall order, though, and I think would require getting the best of a dogpile of Darius.
By contrast, there's been a lot of chatter about Asoka but I'm not a fan of his position at all. His land is greener than Ramesses', but he'll have a slower start with no immediately improvable resources, and has plain ocean where Rams has all that tundra. I think Asoka will be too cramped on this map to be able to compete for the win, and the likelihood of him taking a significant amount of extra territory is quite low. With all of these religion-focused leaders I doubt even Cultural victory is in the cards for him. He's sheltered enough that he has strong Wildcard odds, but I think that's about it.
Then there's poor Hatty, whose horrible luck continues. Her start is nice and she should be able to get a strong landgrab, but she's practically being forced into early conflict with Brennus, and could get dogpiled by Pacal as well if things go particularly badly. This being Hatty, I don't think early conflict will go so well for her, and at minimum I expect she'll be hamstrung enough to be out of the running to win. Yet somehow, she's still one of the most likely leaders to win on this map, because if she can avoid destructive conflict and get the better of Brennus (or turn him into a friend via religion), then Darius is the only leader likely to be able to compete with her economically. We'll see how this goes; will she remain scoreless for an eighth straight season?
Finally, Brennus sticks out like a sore, very aggressive thumb. I don't think he has a shot at winning this game; somebody somewhere is going to tech too far ahead of him a la Caesar in his Seasons 5 and 6 openers. However, as the only warmonger on the map, and one who could be potentially befriended thanks to his religious focus and refusal to attack at Pleased, he is a massive wildcard who could easily determine the fate of his game. I'm not sure how well this will go for him or how likely he is to take second place, but he's the biggest one to watch for sure.
This time, unlike normal, I went with what I consider to be a pretty conservative pick for the map. I have Darius to win an early Spaceship victory, Ramesses in second, and poor Hatty as the first to die.
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Running tests for last season, I was impressed how many times Hatshepsut War-Chariot-rushed Catherine.
