Sullla's AI Survivor Season Eight - Playoff Game 1

I would think Gilgamesh would settle the four farming resources and crash into Lincoln or Mansa Musa at least some of the time. It would be interesting to see in the Alternate Histories if that window of opportunity always runs into a dogpile. How significant do you think capturing Gepid was?

Back to the rankings: with most of the seeds gone, Mansa Musa is so far ahead that the only AI who could pass him is Justinian, and it would take two wins and at least six kills just to tie :eek:
 
now that game is over, I still think even if Pacal did not plot and sit back and built, there would still be a dogpile against Gilgamesh and so Mansa Musa and Elizabeth would expand their civs and have faster tech lead.
Elizabeth got pretty lucky with that Gepid barbarian city snipe as well. That shouldn't really happen in most AHs. Now it is time for me to hope Mansa Musa does not win final game.

I think that barb city was bad luck in fact, otherwise her holy city would have been better situated, and she could have declared on Pacal instead for better gains.
 
Time shouldn't even be an option tbh, never happening on deity.
I didn't think it was an option

edit: Nope..it is..just checked

the odds of that happening are infinitesimal
 
Thrasybulos witnessed a one Time victory :D
And I have seen a turn 484 spaceship game,followed by a turn 440 victory as my second longest game among a thousand game on deity.
And the funny thing is we both witnessed that on Season 4 Game 1 map where Qin Shi Huang is involved in both cases. Coincidence. That's my fun facts for you
 
So... seems I got the Mansa strong, Pacal dead => Lizzy strong, Gilgamesh dead meat, Lincoln irrelevant parts right.
Kudos to me, I guess?

Then again, my first prediction, Sullla picking Mansa, was completely wrong. Should have remembered that while he's Mansa's number 1 fan, he also has an obsession with capital cities. Give me the good backline every time over the gorgeous capital is my credo, not his! :D
Also, I thought Lizzy would be boxed-in, which would lead her to have few cities and build tall => better early research, get to early wonders first, found later religions => Culture game.
Instead, she expanded well, built wide, missed quite a lot of the early wonders, missed all the religions but one, and went for the science game.
So can't really claim to have read that well. :(

Thrasybulos witnessed a one Time victory :D
I've actually witnessed two: the other one was an AH of season 5 game 5 with Shaka and Nappy in perpetual war.
 
Probably just a formal requirement I would say :D
Just like none first to die.

While I had given up anyway, I really did not enjoy randomly hitting Elizabeth second for points. Based on what's given as capital, I think Elizabeth played a better game than Mansa Musa and deserved to win more than him. Of course the question is could she win by space anyway if had Mansa gone for space too.

The fact that Elizabeth's holy cities randomly popped up at far away captured cities probably reduced her chance of wanting to go culture too. One in Hammurabi's north Gepid, another is small coastal city of Gilgamesh. If I remember correctly, their holy city's proximity to their capitals effect their likeliness to go culture?
 
Just random luck in the end..which techs they pick, Mansa getting a great artist.
I had Liz first and Mansa 2nd but still picked culture win, normally you would want Space with Liz but you are always locked in biting your nails on that long road + 10t travel time.
 
Probably just a formal requirement I would say :D
Just like none first to die.

While I had given up anyway, I really did not enjoy randomly hitting Elizabeth second for points. Based on what's given as capital, I think Elizabeth played a better game than Mansa Musa and deserved to win more than him. Of course the question is could she win by space anyway if had Mansa gone for space too.

The fact that Elizabeth's holy cities randomly popped up at far away captured cities probably reduced her chance of wanting to go culture too. One in Hammurabi's north Gepid, another is small coastal city of Gilgamesh. If I remember correctly, their holy city's proximity to their capitals effect their likeliness to go culture?
Time victory is just so implausible. It requires a combination of leaders being perfectly balanced in terms of power and tech but also hopeless economically and unlikely to pursue a cultural victory. Probably would only occur in a situation where there are 6 equally balanced warmongers who all somehow have 100+ stacks of medieval units running around the map and have crashed their economies without being able to gain a significant advantage over their rivals or get to that position where they can snowball. Or maybe a situation where one AI has significant control over the map but then ends up losing a very bloody war to another rival who has a slight tech advantage In my tests I very rarely see games which even get past turn 350 (on temperate maps).

That season 4 alternate history that Thrasybulos ran was on cold or rocky climate I think which I am convinced slows the game down a bit. I think we still had the AP back then as well which can be a nuisance for ending wars early.

'None' first to die happened once in one of the more recent seasons I seem to remember? Although it was very close with one AI just having one city left at the end of the game that was about to be captured. That is more plausible if one of the AIs goes for a super early cultural victory attempt and the other AIs are fairly peaceful/incompetent at warring.
 
To be honest, I believe that FTD - None, Time victory, and Diplomacy Victory should all be removed as they're never the correct choice.
Those may happen, but they're never the most likely outcome.
And yeah, I'm including Diplomacy victory in there: even though it's two orders or magnitude more likely to happen that the other two, it's still never, ever, the most likely victory condition.

Now, if that pick were worth more points than the other choices (as in Fippy's contest), then we could talk. ;)
 
Just random luck in the end..which techs they pick, Mansa getting a great artist.
I had Liz first and Mansa 2nd but still picked culture win, normally you would want Space with Liz but you are always locked in biting your nails on that long road + 10t travel time.

I think culture is the correct victory condition for Liz because she has two culture traits, and a culture trait is worth 4 holy cities! I suspect the reason Liz didn't go for culture was due to a low dice roll for her capital location. Rolling a zero would mean 5 holy cities would be needed for her to pursue culture (according to Slashninja1467 culture rules: https://forums.civfanatics.com/thre...en-playoff-game-1-thread.684175/post-16470543).

I suspect that the 0-6 roll for "location of its capital city" could explain why sometimes double culture traits leaders inexplicably go space in alternate histories. In S4G6 AH Mansa won 3 times, but never culturally: https://sullla.com/Civ4/civ4survivor4-6A.html. Similarly, single culture trait leaders sometimes consistently go for a culture win. In S6 Championship AH Pacal won 7 culture victories, despite going for space in most games: https://sullla.com/Civ4/civ4survivor6-13A.html.

Now for my little rant – Mansa's late slider shenanigans cost me a very high score in this game. Not only had I selected him for 2nd, but I also picked turn 308 as the victory date – the same turn Liz was due to land her ship! :badcomp:
 
To be honest, I believe that FTD - None, Time victory, and Diplomacy Victory should all be removed as they're never the correct choice.
Those may happen, but they're never the most likely outcome.
And yeah, I'm including Diplomacy victory in there: even though it's two orders or magnitude more likely to happen that the other two, it's still never, ever, the most likely victory condition.

Now, if that pick were worth more points than the other choices (as in Fippy's contest), then we could talk. ;)
Personally I think diplomatic victory is fair game. It is not likely but it does happen frequently enough to be a genuine possibility, probably somewhere in the region of 2-3% occurence.

I know you disabled it in your AI contest but I don't think it is quite as random luck as you suggest. Most of the time a diplomatic win is for the likely winner of the game anyway, only occasionally does it result in an unlikely victor. I would argue that a cultural win is just as much 'luck' as well as it usually relies on the AI not getting attacked by the big dog with a tech advantage.

In my tests the AI does seem to call diplo victory votes when it thinks there is a chance of winning (although I am not sure that it always sees the full picture, it might not consider the random hidden modifiers to relations).
 
It definitely is a possibility, but it's never, ever the most likely possibility is what I mean.
So with all victory conditions worth the same score, it's the never the "correct" pick.
 
I loved that game! I was happy to see the low peaceweights soundly defeated once more, and the Mansa-Liz showdown was I think the most tense purely peaceful ending we've ever seen. So many twists and turns! :crazyeye: We can only hope the Championship approaches this level of tension, because I suspect that it will otherwise have a similar dynamic, with an extremely likely high peaceweight majority and Mansa and Elizabeth both there. I imagine the only leader who stands a good chance of challenging them there is Victoria.

All hail to Mansa, once more AI Survivor's top leader! It's a shame that he and Elizabeth couldn't both be awarded the win for this game, though. They deserved it equally. At the end it all came down to little AI quirks, not any sort of strategy as the AI can understand it, and enough die rolls went in Mansa's favor for him to win it. So be it, but it was a crazy fast outcome anyway. Liz has been so weak for so long in AI Survivor that I think most of us had forgotten how good she really is when she actually expands well and isn't screwed by diplomacy. I think it's near-total toss-up which of them has the advantage in the final game.

Lincoln and Hammurabi let me down, here, neither at all effectively competing for second place. The real question is, was this the typical dynamic for this map? Were we always going to see a scenario where two Financial leaders were off to the races and left the others out? Or are there a good number of games where they get more bogged down and the central leaders have a chance to actually make their impact? I don't know, but early impressions at least are that I misread this part of the map. In fairness to Lincoln in particular, I will say that this scenario - suffering an early attack from Gilgamesh while Mansa and Elizabeth got dream games to do their thing - was pretty much impossible not for just him to succeed from, but I think for any leader. Things really did line up wonderfully for those two.

Gilgamesh got pretty screwed this season, struggling to place second in his opener thanks to the early dogpile, then stuck here on a map where he was totally doomed. Even had he been left alone and quickly rolled over Lincoln, there was no way he was going to outrace both Mansa and Liz. No fault of his own that he died first here, even if I do feel like Pool One is overrating him somewhat.

Finally, an embarrassing performance by Pacal that further underscores his ability to perform all over the spectrum - from dominant wins to backdoor seconds to total failures. I do still think he's one of AI Survivor's best because he can dominate so much economically and often get by even when he's not doing great. But he certainly wasn't performing like it in this game. I think his overall odds go up considerably if, say, Game 8 plays out as expected and Lincoln is replaced with a warmonger. But it wouldn't have happened in this game regardless.
 
ffspacal.png
 
I'm 100% on team Elizabeth now! Just not a fan of her beefeaters!
Gutted English didn't get a third win this season. Such a good start and had the sea food too. Unlucky she decided to tech pretty much every tech on the tech tree before launching. AI quirks. Goes to show if you leave Mansa alone he can just be a power house. Where did his 30+ stack suddenly come from. Huge!!
 
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