Sullla's AI Survivor Season Three Alternate Histories

S3P2 Writeup

A shocking result, to say the least. I also encourage readers to ponder the Diplomatic victory question.




To use my best Sullla voice: Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat?!?!?! :run: :eek::run:

I mean, seriously. Wat?!? Gandhi winning the most games by a good amount? Against this hostile field? With Mansa Musa in the game, who looked like a massive disappointment here? De Gaulle being the 3rd best leader in this setup? Five Diplomatic finishes, all from the same two leaders? Minimal strong teching performances despite this star studded cast? The Actual Game turning out to be atypical? What the heck happened here?

For starters, this field was quite unique in that despite having a 2:1 Evil to Good leader ratio, most of these leaders had builder-oriented personalities. The only true warmonger in this field was Peter, and, well, the results made it blatantly obvious that he was the odd man out here. Although these leaders did fight early and often – with such polarized peaceweight divisions this was inevitable – their general approaches to these games were by and large through internal development rather than external conquest.

To call this a 2v4 Good vs. Evil showdown oversimplifies things. To start, Peter was a major wildcard in these games despite, or perhaps because of, his pathetically poor showing. Peter could be useful to the low peaceweights in two ways. First, he could do his job and launch cross map wars against one of the good guys, keeping them occupied while the other three baddies built up and eventually overwhelmed Team Good, like in Games 18 and 19. Otherwise, he could be so incompetent that he becomes an easy source of extra territory for one of his evil neighbors, whether it was from gifting over culturally crushed cities, fudging his expansion, or suiciding into a much stronger leader. The worst thing Peter could do for Team Evil was to be the middling or trollish kind of bad, as all this meant was wasting precious turns that could have been used to stop the ticking time bombs that were Mansa and Gandhi. Indeed, Peter was bad enough at being bad that Team Good more often than not overcame this hostile diplomatic environment, winning eleven games altogether and coming quite close to winning a few more.

Of course, it helped that Team Good happened to consist of the best economic leader and the best culture-monger in Civilization IV. Moreover, both leaders had the most and the best land in the map. In particular, Gandhi was all but guaranteed a nice peninsula to his east that secured him 3-4 extra cities – his main competition for that peninsula was Qin Shi Huang, but Qin’s expansion was slow due to his isolated coastal start and his penchant to go after early wonders (amusingly, Qin built The Great Wall in all twenty games). It was not always rosy between Mansa and Gandhi, however, as the two frequently held differing faiths. This sometimes sparked conflict between the two that derailed multiple of their games.

The elephant in the room: it was Gandhi who got the king’s ransom of the winshare. Thankfully, there is an easy explanation: Mansa’s central position gave every single one of the evil leaders easy access to him, making it a deathtrap. In many games, Mansa would be so embroiled in war that all he could do was serve as a meat shield for the Indians. As Gandhi’s eight wins can attest, Mansa did an incredible job, but it came at a cost nonetheless: Mansa only won three games, and was either dead or utterly broken in most of the other games.

There were three primarily antagonistic pairings between leaders in these games that affected map dynamics in this setup. The first one was the Pacal-Peter pairing. In most games, Peter attacked Pacal early in a desperate attempt to gain some territory. This usually backfired on the Russians, and Peter was usually Pacal’s springboard to the Championship game. Also, Peter’s propensity to avoid culture haunted him greatly, and there were multiple instances of him gifting over culturally crushed cities to the Maya. As much as Peter was a boon for Pacal, there were a couple of scenarios where he was instead the bane of Pacal’s presence. Sometimes, Peter was the catalyst to a dogpile that crippled the Mayans, like in Game 5 when he sparked an early 4v1 that led to Pacal’s one death in this set:


Now you know how it feels!

Almost equally as disastrous for Pacal’s winning prospects was if another leader, say De Gaulle, were to conquer Russia instead. Game 13, in fact, saw Mansa conquer Peter instead, permanently relegating Pacal to the role of second fiddle.

The next pairing was between De Gaulle and Mansa, and oh boy. I would never harbor such sheer hatred for my worst enemy. These two fought, frequently to the death, in every single game, and it was De Gaulle who generally came out on top. There were two main reasons:
  1. Mansa was THE dogpile magnet, and there were many instances where Mansa’s army was struggling in China or Maya while De Gaulle was primed to start toppling the Malinese dominoes with a fresh army in Mansa’s Western border.

There is an imposter among us here…
  1. De Gaulle’s land had a TON of production, while Mansa’s land was on the flatter side, which meant not only that it was relatively sparse on hammers, but also was easier to attack.

That’s enough hammers to give one Gaullestones

Like Hatty in Opening Round Game Eight, it was almost always a De Gaulle invasion that broke Mansa’s back. De Gaulle seemed to have a knack for well timed attacks this season. Upon killing Mansa, De Gaulle’s success hinged on if he could take out Gandhi early enough, or if Gandhi was already too far ahead to be stopped. Mansa would only come out on top if he had an unusually strong opening, De Gaulle had an unusually weak one, or De Gaulle attacked Mansa too late for his massive numbers to overcome Mansa’s tech disparity. In a select few, less common cases, De Gaulle merely served to soften up Mansa for Pacal to take the spoils instead, with predictable results.

Finally, there was the Qin v Gandhi conflict, one that often determined if the outcomes of the other two pairings even mattered. Qin and Gandhi’s rivalry began long before the first war horns blared out announcing their conflict. The two would initially be embarked on a settling race, especially over the aforementioned peninsula and the barbarian settlements that sprouted there.

As I previously stated, Gandhi usually won this race, but when he did not, it was a disaster for Team Good. Like De Gaulle and Mansa, Gandhi and Qin fought in virtually every game, although Qin was a slightly more forgiving opponent than De Gaulle. If Gandhi was able to stalemate (or outright win, which he did a surprising number of times), then his victory was all but assured.

A typical game would see Pacal kill Peter, followed by the three remaining evil leaders to continuously deal hit-and-runs to Mansa until he collapsed or became permanently crippled. From there, two scenarios could take place: either the evil coalition took Gandhi down, with the victor generally being the largest leader no matter who the tech leader was (more on that later), or Gandhi was just too far ahead to be stopped. There were three games that deviated from the game script: the Mansa victories. The livestream game was one of those weird games, where Mansa and Pacal worked together as religious allies to take down the rest of the world (the two almost always had differing religions alongside peaceweight and were by and large bitter enemies in the replays) while Gandhi was the dogpile magnet and completely failed to defend himself. Mansa’s Game 5 win coincided with Pacal’s one death, of which Mansa was the prime beneficiary. His Game 13 win saw Peter ruin Pacal’s game with a Turn 73 war declaration while his rivals generally played poorly. Meanwhile, his Game 15 win was the single most spectacular performance I have, and will have, ever witnessed by a leader in Civilization IV: he mustered a victory despite getting attacked an unfathomable ELEVEN TIMES.

Most Alternate Histories sets have 1-2 random Diplomatic finishes which stem from two scenarios:
  1. Coronating the obvious game winner 30 or so turns before that leader would have won anyway – this is the more common scenario.
  2. A backdoor troll scenario where a much less deserving leader wins because he had better diplomacy with the non-ballot leaders, while the non-ballot leaders were relevant enough to play kingmaker – we always remember these cases, but they occur far less frequently than we think.
However, this was one of the rare Alternate Histories in which a Diplomatic finish actually felt like a legitimate win condition in a separate category from the other three. In fact, the UN had an immense impact on the results, to the point where it nearly ended Mansa’s existence in Game 14. For readers, my hope is that this set shines a spotlight on the debate of if the Diplomatic victory should remain a win condition for AI Survivor. The argument against the inclusion of the Diplomatic victory: had it been disabled, the Runner Up finisher would have won at least three of the five Diplomatic finishes. Even the two “rightful” UN victories were questionable: in Game 1, it looked like De Gaulle’s much larger empire would help him catch up to Pacal in tech, but that was no guarantee, while in Game 10, Qin’s election as World Leader interrupted a down-to-the-wire race to Alpha Centauri between the French and the Chinese; both leaders had launched their spaceships on the same turn, and perhaps this should be a major ding against the inclusion of the Diplomatic victory condition as it robbed us of an exciting space race.

However, with the exception of Game 12 where Gandhi was legitimately shafted out of a win (although part of it was his fault for beelining Mass Media before Rifling :hammer2:), every game with a UN finish saw the most deserving winner come up on top. De Gaulle and Qin are not the types of leaders who can just sit back and coast on Financial like Pacal. They had to go out and earn every scrap for themselves, without being born with a silver spoon in their mouths, and while Pacal arrogantly sat back thinking that his Financial trait and a weak Peter suiciding into him was enough, De Gaulle and Qin put in all the hard work taking down Mansa and/or Gandhi. They may have been too far behind in tech to win in any other way, but they still played the best, and I could not conceive of any Diplomatic finish as a troll ending save for Game 12.

Religion had a minimal impact on games, as in the vast majority of cases the Evil leaders all shared a religion. If anything, religion had the potential to sow the seeds of division for Team Good. This was a violent world filled with stalemated wars, as these leaders were generally evenly matched in military tech, considerably slowing down the tech pace despite this field of elite techers. Mansa’s economy was especially mediocre by his lofty standards, although that had a lot to do with his nearly 5.5 wars per game average. When Gandhi and Mansa win eleven games, it is no wonder that Cultural is the dominant victory condition, but I still found it crazy that there were as many Diplomatic finishes as Spaceship and Domination combined.

Onto the leader summaries:

Pacal II of the Maya
Offensive Wars: 37
Defensive Wars: 33
Survival Rate: 95%
Finishes: 4 Wins, 10 Runner Ups (40 Points)
Kills: 16
Overall Score: 56

My expectation before running this set was that this was going to be a Pacal romp, with a few Mansa or Gandhi wins sprinkled here and there and the occasional random De Gaulle or Qin victory. However, this was only a romp as far as Runner Up finishes were concerned. Regarding actually winning, Pacal had to overcome three hurdles:
  1. Gandhi having a Gandhi game and winning
  2. Mansa having a Mansa game and winning
  3. De Gaulle or Qin getting large, building camaraderie, and then using the United Nations to pull the rug underneath Pacal.
In sixteen games, the three above factors proved too much for Pacal to overcome, forcing him to settle for second, or for outright elimination from the tournament in the most nightmarish of cases, sometimes when he was only a few techs away from building all of his spaceship parts. Truth be told, Pacal did little to dispel the notion that he is an otherwise mediocre leader blessed with a golden package. His overall inactivity cost him dearly in many cases, and in fact was the crucial ingredient in the higher than usual number of Diplomatic finishes. This came from him having the awkward combination of having a small empire yet also being the tech runaway. As a result, when he inevitably reached Mass Media first and built the UN, the election would be between him and a leader like De Gaulle with, say, 35-40% of the world population, while there was a third party, say Qin, with around 25-30% of the world population who thus held the kingmaking power. Since Qin and De Gaulle had done most of the heavy lifting against Mansa and Gandhi, they had built up an immense amount of mutual military struggle bonuses that made them into steadfast allies, and one would crown the other as victor right under Pacal’s nose. All of this was avoidable if Pacal was able to muster any sort of military initiative. Yes, he had 16 kills, but a good chunk of those came from Peter having drank too much vodka in these games. Naturally, Pacal’s four wins came in the games where he actually got his hands dirty and conquered some fools.

Pacal is one of the game's very best economic leaders, but this set demonstrated why he does not quite belong in the absolute top tier of leaders. For a Financial leader with one of the best packages in the game, a dream diplomatic setup, and two easy neighbors to kill, Pacal should have performed much better than 56 total points and four wins. There is a reason why he is a leader that we root against in every game.

Best Performance: Game 6 demonstrated Pacal’s sky high ceiling, as he actually leveraged his economic advantage and murdered the rest of his competition.

Worst Performance: I can give a pass to his one death – there is nothing anyone can do about an early 4v1. More embarrassing was his Game 12 performance, where Peter caught him without metals, leaving Pacal a complete afterthought and out of the championship game.

Hare Award: Pacal should have easily won Game 11 had he not taken a nap with his Mechs and Modern Armors and allowed Gandhi to win by Culture.

Democratic People’s Republic Of Wang Kon Award: De Gaulle was for once the tech runaway in Game 10… but Pacal baited the French into attacking him and devoting his entire production to military rather than research, allowing Qin to catch up in tech (with some help from the Internet). Then, when De Gaulle was about to run over Pacal, the Mayans used the UN to end De Gaulle’s conquest, keeping it in Mayan hands. De Gaulle then voted Qin as world leader on the same turn he launched his spaceship, and Pacal had completed a successful troll.

Gandhi of India
Offensive Wars: 13
Defensive Wars: 59
Survival Rate: 50%
Finishes: 8 Wins, 2 Runner Ups (44 Points)
Kills: 2
Overall Score: 46

For once, Gandhi was not a lamb to the slaughter in a playoff game! In many ways, this was a miraculous showing from the ultimate peacenik of Civ IV. To start, Mansa Musa should never have to pay for his drinks in Delhi ever again. Put literally any other leader in Mansa’s spot, and Gandhi would be dead meat in this setup. Mansa had Skirmishers to shelter Team Good from early dogpiles, and his economic skills kept his tech going despite being mired in a brutal struggle for his survival from Turn 100 and on. Mansa’s resilience was crucial in helping Gandhi get those precious few extra turns that meant the difference between victory and destruction.

This is not to suggest that Gandhi did not deserve his success. He executed his part of the bargain to near perfection, and was generally good at defending himself if he needed to, unlike in the official game. Normally, being in culture mode from Turn 0 is a weakness, but in this case, every turn mattered for Gandhi. Game 20, for example, saw Gandhi get three legendary cities just as Qin’s and De Gaulle’s tanks were outside of his 3rd city – one more turn, and Gandhi was done for. I noticed some utterly absurd cultural beelines: getting Meditation AND Polytheism, going for Philosophy before getting the crucial defensive Longbows, and, which I had already mentioned, going for MASS MEDIA before RIFLING, a move that directly threw away a certain victory in Game 12. Despite this extreme display of culturephilia, Gandhi’s teching was excellent (perhaps aided by the immense amount of room for cities he had), and he was more than capable of helping with military matters. This was one of the most warmongery versions of Gandhi I have observed; he really was more aggressive than his 13 offensive wars may have suggested.

Unsurprisingly, Gandhi’s performance was boom-or-bust: he either won, almost won, or died. There were three ways Gandhi could falter. First, he and Mansa could come to blows due to religious differences, fracturing Team Good and making it easy for Team Evil to win. This was not necessarily a death knell for Gandhi’s chances, as there were two games where the two fought and Gandhi still won, one of them being the oddball Game 2 where Indira took the helm. Luckily in that game, Gandhi and Mansa eventually reconciled and worked together to take down Qin, and the Indians coasted to victory in that game. Nevertheless, fighting his one ally was not good for his prospects. Second, Mansa could fall apart too quickly, meaning that Gandhi was next on the chopping block – this was the most common cause of Gandhi’s failures. Finally, Gandhi could sometimes be his own worst enemy. With Deity starting techs removed, Gandhi was prone to crashing his economy if he combined over-expansion with the over-prioritization of cultural techs over essential development techs like Wheel and Pottery (like in Game 13). To mitigate these early research struggles, I noticed Gandhi quite effectively utilized a failgold economy (for those unfamiliar, this means to use gold from incomplete wonder builds to fuel research – a common technique on higher difficulties) in these games. Another way Gandhi faltered was to fail to properly defend himself, like in Game 15 where he died to a cross map invasion from De Gaulle. Nonetheless, this set showed why Gandhi is an elite culture-monger who would be a top five leader in the game if it were not for his extreme peaceweight. He was quite unlucky in the livestream, and based on these results and the Playoff 1 Alternate Histories, he may have had a better shot at a title than it seemed.

Best Performance: Game 14 was one of the best executed culture victories I have ever seen from a non-Financial leader.

Worst Performance: Crashing his economy in Game 13, failing to expand, and dying one turn before Mansa’s victory triggered. Dishonorable mention to Game 15, for reasons already mentioned.

Tortoise Award: With some help from Pacal’s inactivity, Gandhi won a Culture victory in Game 11 without ever turning up the Culture slider.

No More Mr. Nice Guy Award: Look at his Game 2 statline! At first glance, his zero kills may have made it appear that Gandhi is a poor warmonger, but he should have had at least two kills in that game. His first one was stolen when Peter troll sniped Qin in a last minute vulture of a dying civ, and Gandhi was in the process of running over De Gaulle and Peter at the same time when he hit three legendary cities.

Why You Should Never Give The Nice Guy A Chance Award:


De Gaulle of France
Offensive Wars: 60
Defensive Wars: 20
Survival Rate: 90%
Finishes: 3 Wins, 5 Runner Ups (25 Points)
Kills: 17
Overall Score: 42

Qin Shi Huang of China

Offensive Wars: 54
Defensive Wars: 19
Survival Rate: 80%
Finishes: 2 Wins, 3 Runner Ups (16 Points)
Kills: 4
Overall Score: 20

Although there was a large disparity in score between these two leaders, I grouped them together as in this setup, they were for all intents and purposes on the same team. One could have thought of these results as depicting a “Big Three” of Pacal, Gandhi, and the De Gaulle/Qin tandem. Even outside of map dynamics, these two leaders share many similarities. Both leaders have excellent starting techs and like-minded personalities, both being Industrious low peaceweight backstabbers who prefer more builder-focused strategies. Qin has the blah Protective while De Gaulle has the decent Charismatic as a second trait, but Qin makes up for this trait disparity with better uniques.

Regarding the map, both leaders had Fishing starts and at least one dogpile candidate as a neighbor. These two were not strange bedfellows in these replays – despite being conniving backstabbers, their goals and pathways to victory were in perfect tandem with each other. All of their wins followed the exact same pattern – run over one or more of their neighbors, wait for Pacal or Gandhi to build the UN, and then rig the UN in their favor. Yet another sign of how similar the two were: they had virtually identical offensive to defensive war ratios of 3:1. At the very least, one leader could get into the championship game by killing one of their neighbors and leveraging that into a Runner Up finish. Their strategies reminded me of a human Deity player – they tended to break out with Cuirassiers (De Gaulle’s two move Musketeers were quite useful with this), before getting enough to win through the UN. Their failures stemmed from the following: taking too long to conquer, being unable to coordinate dogpiles, and eventually getting wrecked in the late game by a much more advanced enemy.

The main reason why De Gaulle’s score was so much better: his land and neighbor situation. While Qin had to contend with Pacal and the hyper-cultural Gandhi as neighbors, De Gaulle had the hapless Peter and the more vulnerable Mansa as neighbors, the latter of whom was a more consistent dogpile magnet than Gandhi. Moreover, De Gaulle’s capital and surrounding land was better, especially regarding growth and production. Qin either needed to conquer Gandhi in due time or effectively use a Great Lighthouse-Colossus economy in order to have a chance. Switch Qin and De Gaulle’s starting positions, and their results would likely be flip-flopped. Altogether, this was a better performance from the two than I was expecting, and perhaps the community especially underestimates De Gaulle. The French leader has flailed around more often than not, but this season did demonstrate that there are situations where he can succeed.

Best Performances: Games 1 and 10, respectively, as those were the games where the two would have had a chance to win without the UN.

Worst Performances: De Gaulle’s expansion was moribund in both the games he died, and Qin tried to backstab Pacal in Game 18, only for it to completely backfire in his face.

Civil Disobedience Award: In Game 14, De Gaulle (and Pacal) were about to finish off Mansa… when his last city became ensconced in Gandhi’s borders. Since Gandhi refused to sign Open Borders, De Gaulle was stuck in a forever war, and Gandhi was safe to pursue his patented Cultural victory.

South Park City Wok Award:

Gotta keep out those darn 北京人.

Mansa Musa of Mali
Offensive Wars: 26
Defensive Wars: 93 :faint:
Survival Rate: 40%
Finishes: 3 Wins, 0 Runner Ups (15 Points)
Kills: 4
Overall Score: 19

Poor, poor Mansa. 93 defensive wars says it all. His games were painful to watch, as the Malinese leader would frequently explode out into what appeared to be a dominant position, until the first of what would become a relentless barrage of attacks took place, taking down the titan through death by a thousand cuts. It was impossible to keep track of the number of times Mansa was about to stabilize his situation only for some leader with a gigantic and fresh army to come barreling in from the opposite side of where Mansa’s forces were currently concentrated. In every game, Mansa was teetering on the knife’s edge, never sure if the latest invasion would cause the whole moneybags machine to collapse. Even if he survived, he was more often than not a husk of himself, failing to advance in more than half of the games he survived. Ultimately, Mansa’s true survival rate – where he was not clearly on his way out – was 30%.

With that said, it was still clear why Mansa is one of the best leaders in AI Survivor. No other leader, in my opinion, would win 3/20 games while being attacked 93 times. In fact, they would be lucky to win one game. Mansa only had one easy game, that being Game 5 where Pacal uncharacteristically died early. In the other 19 games, Mansa had one major issue: this was not the right field for culture-monging, not in this hostile field and especially not with Gandhi in the game. Mansa could have done better had he played more like he did in his opening round game, rather than trying to build missionaries while being in a 3v1 and still missing out on the cultural milestones. When Mansa did exhibit aggression, it was not always smart – he attacked Gandhi more often than I thought he would, and taking out his only potential ally tended to backfire on him. At the end of the day, Mansa’s central position proved to be a deathtrap.

Best Performance: In Game 15, Mansa had to contend with a 3v1 on five separate occasions. Also:


Worst Performance: Game 1 was perhaps the one game where Mansa looked extremely pedestrian, and was deservedly First To Die.

Living Long Enough To Become The Villain Award:


Peter of Russia
Offensive Wars: 40
Defensive Wars: 6
Survival Rate: 25%
Finishes: 0 Wins, 0 Runner Ups (0 Points)
Kills: 1
Overall Score: 1

I have read Alternate Histories sets where leaders scored zero points, where leaders died in all twenty games, and where leaders squandered starting positions that would make a human Deity player jump in joy. Yet, there is a valid argument that this may be the single worst Alternate Histories performance ever. To start, look at the war count. Despite only being attacked a total of six times – that’s 0.3 invasions per game – Peter died in three quarters of the replays, was the overwhelming favorite for First To Die despite his majority status, did not ever come remotely close to advancing to the championship game, had the UN nearly tie him in score, and would have laid a complete egg had he not randomly sniped what should have been Gandhi’s kill in Game 2. This was an utterly inexcusable performance for a warmonger with a dream diplomatic setup and golden dogpile opportunities.

The huge problem with Peter: in this field, he might as well have been Ragnar or Genghis Khan. Indeed, if you replaced him with one of those leaders, there would have been little difference (actually, I think those guys might have performed better). For whatever reason, Peter would stop expanding after five cities in order to plot a war he had no chance of winning, whether it was against one of his neighbors or a fruitless cross map venture. Most games saw him either launch random attacks without rhyme or reason, get absorbed by one of his neighbors, or derail the evil gameplant with troll war declarations. His only usefulness to the bad guys was his being so incompetent that he became a mechanism for extra territory for his evil neighbors. Now, here is the caveat: Peter had BY FAR the worst land. He had a coastal capital without coastal resources, little room to expand (exacerbated by his poor cultural output), and lots of jungle with land that was not good enough to compensate post-Iron Working. His land was so awful, I think Huayna Capac would have struggled in his position. Nevertheless, although there is some debate over if Peter is an underestimated or overrated leader, I see him perfectly rated as a mediocrity.

Best Performance: Surely, you must be joking…

Worst Performance: Game 1, where his expansion was so awful that De Gaulle was able to jam border cities right next to Moscow.

Temujin Award:

Three cities on Turn 73…

Conclusions

This was yet another fascinating set, full of twists and turns, some shocking results, and some of the most exciting and awesome individual games I had the pleasure of watching. Some people enjoy seeing pure dominance, while others like to see evenly matched Alternate History sets – as I have done more, I personally find my favorite sets to be the ones with clashes to the death between Good and Evil, like in both this and the first playoff game. Some final food for thought: maybe we underestimate high peaceweights a little bit? This was not the first set in this season where the high peaceweights were able to overcome long odds to find success. For readers who have not yet made it to future seasons: do not be surprised when the goodie two shoes of Civ IV eventually get their time to shine.
 
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Alright, kinda makes more sense that the read I posted.
I knew Peter would be bad (bad AI + worst start on the map), I didn't think he'd be 55% FTD bad.
A bit surprised at Qin's only 4 kills too.

About the Diplomatic Victory Condition, I've expressed myself on the subject a lot, but to recap my stance:
  • I disable it in my runs because I'm interested in measuring up AI performance, and the AI is not programmed to use the UN (if it is, the code is buggy enough to be undistinguishable from random dice rolls).
    Basically, the UN just adds random noise to the measurements.
    • An AI won't call the vote when it can win (or delay it for ages, sometimes until too late)
    • It will call the vote when it can't win
    • It won't adapt its diplomacy to an attempt at winning
    • Votes and calls for resolutions are nonsensical (vote "No" to end a war it's losing badly, etc...)
  • I call it the "troll winning condition" in reference to AI Survivor Picking Contest
    Even in games (like this one, apparently) when diplo is more prevalent, it's never the most likely winning condition
  • The UN should definitely remain enabled for AI Survivor
    It may be bad (imo) for AI ranking purposes, but AI Survivor is first and foremost a show, and UN drama is an integral part of the show.
 
A bit surprised at Qin's only 4 kills too.
Gandhi was a much, much tougher foe than expected, and often had more cities than Qin. Also, Qin was dead last in turn order which hurt a bit in claiming dogpile kills.
About the Diplomatic Victory Condition, I've expressed myself on the subject a lot, but to recap my stance:
  • I disable it in my runs because I'm interested in measuring up AI performance, and the AI is not programmed to use the UN (if it is, the code is buggy enough to be undistinguishable from random dice rolls).
    Basically, the UN just adds random noise to the measurements.
    • An AI won't call the vote when it can win (or delay it for ages, sometimes until too late)
    • It will call the vote when it can't win
    • It won't adapt its diplomacy to an attempt at winning
    • Votes and calls for resolutions are nonsensical (vote "No" to end a war it's losing badly, etc...)
  • I call it the "troll winning condition" in reference to AI Survivor Picking Contest
    Even in games (like this one, apparently) when diplo is more prevalent, it's never the most likely winning condition
  • The UN should definitely remain enabled for AI Survivor
    It may be bad (imo) for AI ranking purposes, but AI Survivor is first and foremost a show, and UN drama is an integral part of the show.
All reasonable and I believe the UN and Diplo victory definitely belong in AI Survivor, another argument in favor is that it can save us 30-50 turns of uninteresting next turning in some scenarios
 
I figured Mansa had to be the win with 11 defensive wars, but I would've bet on him being the 40% winner (I didn't get around to analyzing any of the other result lines - a lack of links to the original game materials certainly didn't help with that, by the way!) Definitely an unusual result.

Diplo should 100% remain enabled for AI Survivor because it's a core part of the game of Civ 4 (unlike the AP which was tacked on in an expansion) and more often than not makes things more interesting and/or entertaining when it does come into play.
 
Speeding these up a bit as I want to finish S3 before 2025 at least.

Playoff 3 teaser! Recall in the actual game that JC and KK, two leaders with last names that have become synonymous with king, had partitioned the globe for themselves and only THEN turning on each other like the rabid dogs they are, Caesar ultimately winning the space race.

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Here we have yet another one of these "Big Three" types of sets. The question is, for those of you who followed 2010s NBA, which group constituted the Miami Heat Big Three and which one constituted the Brooklyn Nets "big three"?
 
I'll guess that this one played out largely along peaceweight lines. The big question is who's the odd one out? The fact that only one leader had a high kill total suggests that it's one of the two who did well in the actual championship... so I'll guess that JC flounders without the extra starting techs. That leaves Kublai to do much of the heavy lifting militarily, although he struggles to actually outpace Hannibal doing Financial things or Louis doing culture.

Hannibal is Financial, has good room to grow militarily, and doesn't border three warmongers, so I like his odds better than Louis's. Of the bottom three, JC seems pretty likely to be the one with the kills, while Rams probably squeezed out two wins and Burger King did not much of anything.

Final answer: Hannibal, Kublai Khan, Louis XIV, Julius Caesar, Ramesses II, Charlemagne
 
Hannibal borders both marked men, so that would indeed make him the de facto favourite. He has an exposed central position, so you'd expect things to go very wrong for him sometimes though.
That kinda fits the first entry.

Louis has a central position and borders none of the high peaceweights: he seems the least likely to do well among the low peaceweights.
Kublai's start I've already discussed: lots of room + no commerce makes for a dangerous proposition early game.
And Caesar's, according to Keler's data, wasn't that good either.

  1. Hannibal
  2. JC
  3. Kublai
  4. Louis
  5. Ramesses
  6. Charlie
(but honestly, 2 & 3 could be reversed).
 
Hanni - JC - Louis - Kublai - Rammy - Charly

Hanni is extremely close to Rammy, who has great land but is a clear PW outcast, along with Charly, and Charly. Going for Charly would probably be more difficult. Nonetheless this is a great advantage for him. Some FTD are on the cards due to a central start and Rammy having close horses. After the early game Financial carries him to win most of the games.

JC probably is the one going around the map killing people.

For the third good AI I am unsure. Louis has much better Land than KK, but is way more threatened. Basically Louis has to survive and beat Hanni, and KK has to beat Louis and then beat Hanni.

IMHO, the fourth having nine kills indcates that this is Kublai and Louis is third.

Rammy can probably get the odd culture victory, making him fifth.

Edit: spelling
 
S3P3 is ready! @Eauxps I. Fourgott had an excellent read of the map (and the overall capabilities of these leaders), and this was a tough one that certainly surprised me a lot! Perhaps there is merit in the belief that ALL of the French leaders are quite underrated...

Also, thank you Eauxps, I foolishly completely forgot to link Sullla's writeups, which I will do in all the other posts. Whoops!

Anyways, here it is!

S3P3 Writeup



I had a hunch that the livestream game was an unlikely result. Both of the advancing leaders got insane goodie hut luck, with Julius Caesar popping Mysticism before morphing into Constantine, and Kublai Khan popping an early Writing to enhance his already formidable land-grabbing abilities. This was bad news for the rest of the world, especially Louis, who had the misfortune of being sandwiched between the two lucky bastards of the map.

What I did not expect was the official game being a total outlier. In these Alternate Histories, Julius Caesar was a complete buffoon, never ever coming close to even backdooring into the Championship game, let alone winning. So what happened to one of AI Survivor’s OG titans, perhaps one of the most significant men in all of Western civilization?

There were two factors. To start, Caesar was an odd man out in this field, despite his perfect peaceweight for this setup. Of his five rivals, four were major culture pumpers due to some combination of being Creative and having a religious and/or cultural emphasis, and the fifth, Hannibal, had the Financial trait and was no slouch at expansion himself. All the Roman dictator could lean on was his Praetorians, but that is a segway to the second factor (the use of modern AI Survivor settings), which will be discussed in the individual leader section.

As it turned out, this ended up being another one of those “Big Three” Alternate Histories. The story of this map was that of Louis, Kublai Khan, and Hannibal being the alpha males who bullied and pansted the three beta males, that being Ramesses, the Burger King, and the aforementioned Caesar. There was an intriguing rock-paper-scissors dynamic amongst the three alphas. There were certainly exceptions, but as a general rule of thumb, Louis would culturally overwhelm the Carthaginians, Hannibal would outtech the Mongolians, while Kublai would lay the wrath of Khan unto the French.

This was a world ruled by a crime syndicate. Louis was the big bad boss, the man whose ring everybody else had to kiss. Blessed with the best land, easy access to the runt of the map, and the shortest countdown to victory, Louis lived up to his Sun King nickname, every game revolving around his orbit. If Louis was Don Eladio, Kublai Khan was Hector Salamanca. The Yuan emperor was an absolute brute on this map, netting himself a staggering 27 kills (albeit a lot of them were troll snipes), and the fuel to his success was his merciless bullying of that poor Egyptian guy to his East. In game after game after game, KK smacked around Ramesses, encroached on his land, stole his lunch money, slept with his sister-wife, and then strung Ramesses upside down on top of a pole for the rest of the world to see. Following his dismemberment of the Egyptians, KK generally served as the mafia enforcer, although once in a while he could launch a coup of his own and establish himself as the boss. Although Hannibal ostensibly lacked much in the way of quality land, his Gus Fring-like ambition more than made up for it, as he continuously expanded his way out of his funk and leveraged his Financial trait to eventually become an unstoppable force. Moreover, he had easy access to two of the three wannabes of the map, and unlike his criminal counterparts, was much more sound in his decision making.

There were a few things that separated the alphas from the betas. First was that in a world where space was limited, the Big Three excelled the most at the land-grabbing stage, whether it was from settling, stretching their culture, or through barbarian conquest. Conversely, the other leaders either got too hung up on mediocre wonders (Ramesses), liked to plot war prematurely (Caesar, Burger King), had the slowest starts (JC, BK), or struggled at handling the barbarians (BK, Ram). Secondly, the Big Three lacked any crippling flaws that the beta triumvirate had. Caesar’s avoidance of Culture as if it would bring the Ides of March combined with his commerce poor land meant that he usually reached Praetorians too late for them to be of much use; the Burger King’s awful starting techs (this was played with Deity techs removed) and religion focused strategy meshed poorly with his seafood start; Ramesses’ military incompetence was astoundingly apparent in these games.

Some stats to highlight this disparity:

  1. The Big Three combined for 18 wins, with the two outliers being Ramesses victories that stemmed from Louis and Kublai falling into an extremely early and mutually destructive conflict, allowing the Egyptians to use their high quality land to fill the void.
  2. The Big Three all survived the majority of these replays; the three stooges only exceeded 35% survival.
  3. Two members of the Big Three constituted a championship ticket in 15/20 games, while at least one member of the Big Three clinched a championship spot in 19/20 games.

However, there was a boom-or-bust nature among the Big Three, with each member experiencing the entire gamut of possible results. Their victories could be easy romps or brutally hardfought wins, their 2nd place finishes could be almost-wins or lucky backdoor games, and their eliminations could either be embarrassing early exits or heartbreaking last-minute collapses. The Jekyll-and-Hyde nature of the Big Three was also apparent in the general map dynamics, as it felt like every game was either a laugher (Games 10, 14, 18) or a bloody slogfest (Games 13, 16, 20). Oftentimes, whichever leaders made it to the finish line depended on who was able to get on the right side of dogpiles. One thing remained constant: the relatively low number of wars. Despite this aggressive bunch of leaders, the war counter was quite low due to most wars being fought to the death, whether it was due to a war being a vicious dogpile, a protracted stalemate, or a much stronger leader Thanos snapping some poor sap out of the realm of existence. There was also a lot of last minute vulturing of dying civs that served to artificially tick up the war counter in many games.

An interesting tidbit was that although the Big Three clearly dominated the Winner and Runner Up categories, First To Die turned out to be much more unpredictable. Although the community favorites (Louis, Ramesses) were proven to be reasonable choices, especially Ramesses, every leader ended up First To Die at least once, and all save for Kublai Khan were First To Die on multiple occasions. As it turned out, dogpiles were hard to predict, and a few games saw a leader collapse from a dominating position to be First To Die after getting ganged up on. Whichever victory condition took place was also a tossup, usually dependent on whichever leader came out on top and if that leader decided to leverage his tech advantage towards military conquest. However, unlike Playoff Two, where the UN was one of the defining facets of the map, these games never came close to any Diplomatic finish. Most games only had two remaining relevant leaders, and even when this was not the case there was too much bad blood from border tensions and past conflict history for these leaders to be willing to vote for each other. The religions were dominated by Ramesses, Charlie, and (to a lesser extent) Louis, but religion was of little relevance in these games save for aiding pushes towards Cultural victories. Usually, Ramesses was able to spread his religion globally, but this did little to help his diplomatic situation due to border tensions being the primary driver of conflict in this world.

Analyzing each leader’s individual performance:

Louis XIV of France
Offensive Wars: 33
Defensive Wars: 43
Survival Rate: 70%
Finishes: 10 Wins, 2 Runner Ups (54 Points)
Kills: 11
Overall Score: 65

Louis deservedly won this set for two main reasons. First, he was the only member of the Big Three still capable of winning if things went sideways, if only because his cultural emphasis made him a ticking time bomb to win no matter what happened. Secondly, he was the most well-rounded of the Big Three, excelling at the landgrab stage, maintaining military supremacy, and keeping up in tech; Kublai and Hannibal were less consistent in these aspects. Louis did have a lot going for him here: as I had mentioned, he had the best land and the weakest neighbor. In many games, Louis’ victory was all but assured by Turn 100, as he would expand to a double digit city count, pump tons of culture to squeeze out his competition, make the Roman lands fine additions to his own, and be the primary executor of dogpiles. It spoke volumes that his most dominant showings were not his Cultural finishes, but actually his three pre-T300 Domination wins. He had many pathways to victory: run over Caesar and snowball, run over Hannibal early, sit back and allow everyone else to fight while he cultured or teched away, or build up and run over one of his neighbors at a later stage of the game.

The biggest roadblock for Louis was his Southern neighbor, Kublai Khan. Every single game in which Louis faltered had one constant: the French found themselves mired in conflict with the Mongolians, whose single-minded dedication towards everything military made them formidable foes. Louis’ inability to deal with the Mongolian threat led to multiple poor showings, including three First To Die performances. The Sun King did run over Kublai multiple times, but this almost always came when he had pulled out into enough of a tech lead to do so. Louis was lucky that despite his central position, he only had to deal with one dangerous neighbor – as the livestream showed, a stronger Caesar would not have been good news for the French. This set demonstrated what many already know about Louis: he is a quintessential boom-or-bust leader who can be his own worst enemy at times. At least he redeemed himself after his disappointing Opening Round Alternate Histories. For those who have not watched later seasons yet, I would keep Louis in the back of your mind – he is as capable as anybody at AI Survivor.

Best Performance: His shockingly strong Game 10 victory easily takes the cake here.

Worst Performance: Going way, WAY too crazy with expansion in Game 18, provoking a 3v1 that led to his early demise.

Wang Kon Burger King Minority Shareholder Award:


All of Gaul is Divided Into Three Parts Award:


Kublai Khan of Mongolia
Offensive Wars: 53
Defensive Wars: 23
Survival Rate: 80%*
Finishes: 3 Wins, 7 Runner Ups (29 Points)
Kills: 27
Overall Score: 56

*This stat is EXTREMELY deceiving. When accounting for the games where Kublai Khan would have died within five or so turns had his would-be conqueror not reached some victory threshold, his “true” survival rate plummets to 55%.

Kublai may have scored the 2nd most points in this set, but he was clearly the 3rd cog in the Big Three, more Chris Bosh than Lebron or DWade. With that said, it became pretty obvious why Kublai is one of the most formidable warmongers in Civ IV. His traits and the Mongolian civ nullified the two biggest weaknesses that most warmongers have (early culture and early economy), and he was excellent at expansion and warfare. Kublai was a kingmaker here: games swung depending on who Kublai chose to attack, and he was always a strong contender to make it to the Championship game due to the tasty snack to his east that was Ramesses.

With all that said, there was a reason why nearly half of Kublai’s points came from kills (and many of these kills were stolen from more deserving leaders). To start, being completely devoted to military matters had tradeoffs: Kublai was a subpar economic leader. There were a multitude of games where Kublai had conquered an entire hemisphere, only to falter because he had fallen too far behind in tech or because it was too late to stop Louis from getting three legendary cities. Kublai was also not the smartest with his war declarations at times. Too often did I see him launch cross map wars for little gain, wasting time, gaining little of note for his efforts. In particular, there were a couple of games where he had a chance to stop Louis from winning, only to sic his entire army against Charlie on the opposite corner of the map and then have to give away his conquests as they got culturally crushed.

Interestingly, killing Ramesses was the “safe” choice, one that made it likely that he would advance but not nearly as likely to win. Two of Kublai’s three wins saw him kill Louis early instead, as Louis’ land was just much better for snowballing while also giving him much more easily accessible secondary targets to keep up the momentum. The one game where he did not kill Louis yet still won (Game 20) was a major slog where everybody got stuck in wars, and Kublai was able to crawl to space by getting the most territory for himself. Kublai is deserving of his reputation as one of AI Survivor’s top leaders, but as these games showed, he lacks the economic heft to truly measure up to AI Survivor’s Big Three of Justinian, Huayna, and Mansa.

Best Performance: His incredible Turn 267 victory in Game 18 takes the cake here, and this date undersold how amazing he played. Had Charlie not sniped a couple of cities from Kublai, he could have won before Turn 250.

Worst Performance: Somehow getting run over by Ramesses in Game 2.

Mongolia Delenda Est Award:


Hannibal of Carthage
Offensive Wars: 23
Defensive Wars: 38
Survival Rate: 65%
Finishes: 5 Wins, 7 Runner Ups (39 Points)
Kills: 11
Overall Score: 50

In many ways, Hannibal was the foil to Kublai Khan. While the Mongolians supplied the brawn to the Big Three mafia, Hannibal was the brains of the operation. Kublai was a far more consistent leader, while Hannibal had much more variance in performance, either absolutely dominating or being a pathetic 5-6 city weakling without much in between (do not be fooled by his seven second place finishes – most of them were backdoor “everyone else died” finishes). Hannibal had three hurdles he had to overcome to succeed. First was his lack of cultural inclinations, which left his border cities struggling to control their first ring tiles. Second was his jungle coated land, which, in the short term, left much to be desired. Especially painful was the fact that his capital was one tile away from the coast, preventing Hannibal from being able to play the water economy game that he has proven adept at in the past. Hannibal was also rather unlucky at times, as in quite a few games he found himself hampered by inopportune barbarian city spawns, blocking off his expansion after six cities and leaving him irrelevant. Finally, due to having to deal with cultural border tensions from three sides, Hannibal was vulnerable to dogpiles that led to three games where he became First To Die.

In return, three factors kept the Carthaginians afloat. First was his Financial boosted double Ivory capital which kept his economy in pristine shape and also had enough hammers to aid his landgrab. Indeed, Hannibal’s best games saw him go absolutely crazy with settling, even claiming Northern territory between the Salad Man and the Burger King. Secondly, Hannibal built and utilized the Pyramids extremely well in most games, either adopting an early Representation to boost his economy or an early Police State to fuel an early conquest. Finally, Hannibal had two weak neighbors to pick on, and when a Financial leader doubles his empire size, the game is all but sealed for him. Hannibal’s performance in this set was much like many of his other AI Survivor games: it seems that he either has crazy games that garner him the “Chadnibal” moniker, or he has some stinkers that make everyone wonder if he is the most overrated leader in the game. In truth, all this balances out to make Hannibal an above average leader for AI Survivor purposes.

Best Performance: His crazy Game 14 teching performance, sparked by a perfectly executed conquest of Ramesses.

Worst Performance: All three of Hannibal’s First To Die eliminations followed the same pattern: he barely expanded, launched a failed war against one of his neighbors, and was quickly delended into the bottom of the Mediterranean sea.

Fingernails Scratching A Chalkboard Award:


Charlemagne of the Holy Roman Empire
Offensive Wars: 32
Defensive Wars: 28
Survival Rate: 35%
Finishes: 0 Wins, 4 Runner Ups (8 Points)
Kills: 9
Overall Score: 17

After the Big Three, there is a steep drop-off to the next tier of leaders, with the Burger King proving to be the best of the worst. Charlie is generally regarded as the worst leader in the game in human hands due to his bottom tier trait and starting tech pairing, and with Deity starting techs removed, this set certainly showed why. With a Fishing start that lacked rivers for commerce, Charlie’s early game was almost always too slow to ever contend for a victory, and his best hope for a Championship spot was to be lucky enough to get enough of Caesar’s or Hannibal’s territory to finish in 2nd place, or for Kublai Khan on the opposite corner to take out everyone else.

Charlie is a decent leader at worst, but here, he was not able to execute his religious strategy due to his slow start and lack of rivers to spread his religion. Although he and Ramesses almost always founded two of the first three religions, Ramesses was far more effective at spreading his religion, as the Egyptians would often build Stonehenge for the Obelisks that give them extremely early Prophets, allowing for extremely early shrines and thus a virtual monopoly on the religious race. Too often, Charlie would find himself a diplomatic pariah, being the only practitioner of his religion alongside his relatively high peaceweight, and there were games where it seemed he would have been able to muster something when Kublai came crashing in from the other side of the world, leading to the Holy Roman collapse. Even in Charlie’s good games, he was far too behind in tech to amount to anything. Altogether, Charlie just did not have the tools to make much of his tenuous at best situation, and if “Second To Die” was an AI Survivor category, Charlie would have been a great pick.

Best Performance: The only game where Charlie had a shot to win was Game 13, where if Louis was not a culture-monger, the Burger King would have probably limped to a late Spaceship win.

Worst Performance: Allowing Hannibal to catch him without metals in Game 7, losing two cities on the first turn of the war.

Opera-Loving Aztec Empire Award:


Vandalized Headquarters Award:

Charlie made it to the Championship round in this game. 🍔

Ramesses II of Egypt
Offensive Wars: 8
Defensive Wars: 36
Survival Rate: 25%
Finishes: 2 Wins, 0 Runner Ups (10 Points)
Kills: 1
Overall Score: 11

All one needs to do to diagnose what went wrong for the Pharoah here is to look at his war counters. Not only was Ramesses such a soft leader as his eight wars suggested, but also his Defensive war count was shockingly low considering his survival rate. That suggests one thing: when Ramesses was attacked, he usually melted in an instant.

In most games, Ramesses’ death warrant was already signed by Turn 100 as his inability to outcompete his western neighbor Kublai Khan in the expansion phase would leave him without enough cities to defend himself from the eventual Mongolian invasion. Moreover, his expansion was further hampered by constant barbarian harassment, made worse by his northern neighbor Hannibal often building The Great Wall to steer the barbarians towards Egypt. These issues were exacerbated by the Egyptian leader spending too much time on lesser wonders like Stonehenge and Temple of Artemis (a good reminder to human players that both of these wonders are classic noob traps), which were great for spreading his religion, but not for straightening out his other priorities. Ram’s issues with his Mongolian neighbor were understandable, but with War Chariots, his inability to handle the barbarians does not reflect well on him. Speaking of which, one issue I noticed from Ram was in general, he was far too attached to his War Chariots for too long. Despite being strength five, War Chariots make for terrible defenders, especially against Keshiks and Elephants.


War Chariots and Aqueducts will surely save me from War Elephants, amirite?

All Ram could muster was two somewhat flukey victories, which as I had mentioned stemmed from Louis and Kublai fighting each other into irrelevance in a pre-T100 war. After Game 4, it was all downhill for the Egyptian leader. Ram is a great culture-monger, but for someone with a more neutral peaceweight, his lack of consistency feels enigmatic at times. I do wonder if he high-rolled on his peaceweight in this set.

Best Performance: Killing Kublai early in Game 2, and then out-teching HANNIBAL to space. Of the games Ram did not win, he came close in Game 20 (and would have won had he turned up the culture slider), before finding out that going to Space on six cities generally is not a viable strategy, and there were a couple other games where he was having a decent game before he foolishly turned up the Culture slider too early, leading to his downfall.

Worst Performance: Tough to say. He got steamrolled a lot, perhaps his earliest eliminations in Games 5 and 6?

Real Poverty Point Award:


Tarquinius Superbus of Rome
Offensive Wars: 41
Defensive Wars: 22
Survival Rate: 15%
Finishes: 0 Wins, 0 Runner Ups (0 Points)
Kills: 3
Overall Score: 3

For all of Ramesses’ faults, at least he never reached the ineptitude of this guy. Clearly, Caligula’s horse was leading the Romans in this set. :deadhorse:

To say this was an embarrassment would be an understatement. I saw Nero crash his economy, never use his Praetorians effectively, stop expanding after six cities (perhaps to plot war), ignore culture for way too long, and effectively serve as the game troll, launching fruitless wars at the worst possible time until he was swatted away like a barbarian. My hypothesis for Commodus’ perplexing performance: he is one of the leaders most hurt by the removal of Deity starting techs. The consensus among the best Civ IV players in the world is that Praetorians are an overrated unit, great for mowing down leaders on Monarch difficulty or for Hall of Fame speedruns, but a very awkward unit in normal high difficulty games. This is because even as an eight strength unit, military progress is virtually impossible without Catapults, which happen to be on the opposite side of the tech tree. Without Deity starting techs, Elagabalus was often beelining his unique unit without much in the way of useful development techs, smashing Praetorians against a Protective or Creative leader without Catapults, and subsequently becoming a non-factor. Moreover, with Deity starting techs, Honorius had six starting techs, while without, he was stuck with the Mining/Fishing combo, which in the hands of the AI is good in some situations but useless in others (because the AI are not good at maximizing the benefits of immediate access to Bronze Working).

That really is all I can say. Maximinus Thrax was a complete afterthought here, one whose only points came from random kill snipes. What a horrific performance from the Actual Game winner that really taints his dominant early season legacy.

Poisoned Bread and Circuses Award:


Conclusions


This was an interesting and unexpected set of games, and of all the Season Three sets I have run, this one was, in my opinion, the one most affected by the removal of Deity starting techs. I think Caesar would have been a lot better with Deity starting techs, while Louis would have been much weaker due to the faster starts of all the warmongers who surrounded him. There was definitely a luck factor in this set, as much depended on who was able to benefit the most from dogpiles. I would not be surprised if another set has quite a different result.
 
Good grief Caesar :eek: Although as I've mentioned before, given the different conditions of these AHs, I think you assign too much weight to them when looking back on the season itself. JC wasn't playing without Deity starting techs during Season 3, so this doesn't taint his successful performance there nor prove it a fluke.
 
Merry Christmas everyone!

It's been a while - I have been extremely busy over the past 1.5 weeks or so, but I was finally able to get all the championship games done:

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To recall: Stalin won in a stunning upset in a really tight game, while Justinian came oh so close to being AI Survivor's only leader with multiple rings as of now (post S8).

Now, a quick disclaimer: As may be obvious here, I arbitrarily decided to alter the scoring system so that the winner gets 10 points instead of the usual 5.

Why? Well, this is the Championship game after all, where winning means everything, and I felt that it was most important here that the final results actually reflect which leaders actually had the best chances of winning a title. Had I kept the usual scoring system, second and third place would have been switched, and it did not feel right for me to rank a leader with only two wins above a leader with six wins (and, frankly, quite a few near wins).

There were pretty much three tiers of two leaders: the winners, the spoilers, and the suckas. Who was where?
 
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