The Failure of Civ 4

bluemethod

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As a game developer, I'm predicting that Civ 4 is not going to be successful as a game. It's designed to appeal to hardcore fans of the series, who on their own don't have a good view of what makes a game actually playable. Modding, as you can see from this forum, is going to result in little more than laundry lists of features that add little or nothing to the gameplay. The reason I'm posting this here, in the ideas forum, is that I hope someone, either the developer or enlightened modders, will realize that there's still hope for this game.

There are three main elements of Civ 4 that are going to make it an obscure, fans-only affair: linearity, determinism, and political correctness.

Linearity: The Civilization series has always differed from history in this important aspect. History is cyclical. History shows that anyone has a chance of winning in the end. In Civ 4, you're not going to see that. There's going to be 'permanent alliances', which will encourage worldwide dominance. In historical terms, the game needs some mechanism for an American Revolution or American Civil War in order to be consistent with how reality works. In gameplay terms, that very mechanism would encourage smart strategy and diplomacy. It would prevent a situation in which players that start out slow, or have a difficult early game, from having a hopeless, unenjoyable experience.

Determinism: Civ 4 is going to see an increase in the greatest weakness of the series. Whichever player starts out winning will inevitably win in the end. The same factors that lead to military dominance also lead to cultural and religious dominance. How exactly you win isn't really important: if you have the highest number of the most productive cities, you can churn out military units, cultural buildings, wonders, or missionaries. There's no chance for a weaker civilization from coming back from the brink of destruction and getting to the point where it might win.

Obviously, this point is closely related to linearity. In the real world, civilization began in the Iraq-Kuwait area. In Civ terms, you could call it the Babylonian civilization. What's happened in the Middle East for all this time? It's been conquered by a variety of other civilizations, but now it's asserting itself, and also has a high degree of wealth and power, due to trading a rare, strategic resource. In game terms, it just isn't possible for this to happen. Once a civ is conquered, it's gone forever. Not only that, but Civ 4 is going to balance resource allocation, making it essentially a meaningless feature, since there will be no rarity or strategy when dealing with resources.

Political Correctness: It's funny how game developers who try to act PC end up coming across as the most insensitive. I shouldn't even have to mention how successful GTA3 and The Sims 2 are, despite (or because of) having a high degree of offensive content. Firaxis has dropped the ball on two great features: religion and terrorism.

First, though, here's the thing with TRYING to be PC: it doesn't work. People talk about how it's such a big deal that Civ 4 is going to have slavery. Guess what? It was in Civ 3! What do you think it is when you capture someone's settlers? Gee, here's this unit that I captured with military power or blackmailed from my enemy diplomatically, I know it represents a chunk of population, and I'm going to make it work indefinitely, without pay. Not only is slavery in Civ 3, it's an extremely useful strategy, and every advanced player here knows that they've used it. Meanwhile, the only black civilization in the game is portrayed as the most primitive, complete with a dehumanizing Zerg rush strategy built-in.

Firaxis has decided to have a half-dozen religions in the game, each of which act identically, because they don't want to offend anyone. I guess all the other religions in the world, throughout history, don't really count as 'real' religions to them, since they aren't major modern religions. Each religious viewpoint is equally valid, as long as it's popular and current, right? A better idea than their off-hand misrepresentation of religion is to have the development of religion by category. You get animism, pantheism, polytheism, monotheism, and some others. When you develop the religion, then you get to choose the name. That way, each religion can have it's own effects, rather than just be a meaningless name.

Terrorism, on the other hand, is more than just about having respect in the representation for something important in human lives. Terrorism is a vital strategy for weaker nations to deal with dominant ones. Without it, the only way to compete is through raw power. See where I'm going with this? The game becomes more linear, and more deterministic. I'd have it so that, after the development of the UN, other nations can produce militant units. These units, acting like diplomats or missionaries (but with even more freedom of movement), would be able to attack cities in the same way that a diplomat can engage in espionage. A terrorist attack would create 'fearful' citizens (from happy citizens, on the way down), which would act as unhappy citizens, except that they could not be pacified except through the passage of time.

I've gone through most of the big problems of Civ 4, and the solutions aren't really that complicated. There needs to be a way for civilizations to split, so that smaller, less powerful civs can compete against huge empires. There also needs to be a way for completely conquered civilizations to exist, in order to allow them to assert themselves later (like real-world France, Germany, or Japan). Real history is ugly, and Firaxis needs to stop dodging it, or they'll just look like they're inconsiderate. Terrorism needs to be included. Religion needs to be handled with some dignity, instead of saying "yeah, this'll make the hardcore fans happy." As for other details, like overpopulation, concentration camps, and however they're bound to mishandle the expansion of slavery, I'm not yet conviced that, while they would enhance realism, they would enhance actual gameplay.

For some of these features, Firaxis will hopefully pay attention. For others, it's bound to be left up to modders. I hope that someday, Civ 4 will be a good game, that will be worthy of play.
 
Wow. Well said. I agree with all of your points. I think you go overboard when you say that civ4 will be a failure. I believe it would be a better, deeper game if it incorporated the issues you describe, but I don't think it will be bad. The developers know they have a legacy to live up to; I think they know that if they put out something mediocre, they're going to take a beating. It might not be perfect, but I'm confident it will be good. Besides, they have to leave something for civ5 ;-)

Which, actually, brings up an annoyance I have with civ (and other games). Why can't they release it like other types of software? i.e., instead of civ1, civ2, and civ3 released once every 5 years as ground-up rewrites, why can't they release an upgrade every year for like $15 that incrementally goes from civ3 to civ4 over the same period? One upgrade might switch from 2-D to 3-D. Another might add 8 new civs and traits. A third might rebalance strategic resources and upgrade the AI. The cynic in me says it's because they can sell us the same expansion pack for each version every time. The optimist in me hopes they'll realize that by pushing out fresh content every year, they'll keep people playing civ who might otherwise have forgotten about it in the 5-year gap between versions. The optimist in me hopes they would realize the reduced costs and increased productivity that comes with evolving a (well-designed) code base rather than rewriting a whole game from scratch every time.
 
bluemethod said:
As a game developer, I'm predicting that Civ 4 is not going to be successful as a game.

I'll bet you $50.00 point blank that your dead wrong. We could easilly do an entire pay pal account transer of the losers $50.00 to the winner, 6 months after the games release; I'm more then confident this game is gonna kick ass, and take the sales charts like the black plague hitting england.
 
Why would you care if the game does bad? Afterall they are in some way your competitors.

Have you even played Civ3? or anyother Civ game? From your post it seems like you have barely played it at all.

Guess what? It was in Civ 3! What do you think it is when you capture someone's settlers? Gee, here's this unit that I captured with military power or blackmailed from my enemy diplomatically, I know it represents a chunk of population, and I'm going to make it work indefinitely, without pay. Not only is slavery in Civ 3, it's an extremely useful strategy, and every advanced player here knows that they've used it.
Even if an advanced player uses slaves I'll guarentee most of their workforce is made up of their own workers. (at least up untill everything has been railroaded)

Also the game is not being designed for the hardcore civ fans. Otherwise Corruption, Eras, Pollution, and Stacks of Death would of still been in.

Again why do you care it will be a faliure? Are you about to realease another TBS game at around the same time an are afraid of it taking a large amount of your profit? I don't understand.

Even if it is a faliure I will buy it right after it comes out and have a hell of a lot of fun. :)
 
As a game developer, I think Civ4 will sell pretty well. Most likely, the best selling Civ game yet.

And even though I work for "the competition", I wish the guys at Firaxis the best of luck, because I want to see Civ4 succeeed for the most selfish of reasons, I want to play it.
 
Bluemethod raises a few good points that could make the game alot better (I really like your idea of adding terrorism in the game) but i have to agree with Xen on the game being successful. I think your standards are too high Bluemethod but who knows maybe you will be right.
 
apatheist said:
Why can't they release it like other types of software? i.e., instead of civ1, civ2, and civ3 released once every 5 years as ground-up rewrites, why can't they release an upgrade every year for like $15 that incrementally goes from civ3 to civ4 over the same period?

Well, let's see.

Civ1 was designed by Sid and Bruce when they were at Microprose. Civ2 was designed by Brian when he was at Microprose. Civ3 was designed by a bunch of people (I'll narrow it down to Jeff as lead) at Firaxis, a different company than the one that made the previous. Civ4 is by Soren at Firaxis, but for a diffenet publisher.

BTW, other than sports titles which are released every year (and charge full price for each installation), what franchise follows the pattern you listed? I can't think of any.
 
To say it simply.

Looking at how successful previous Civ games have been, and looking at how Firaxis is good at keeping the tradition and studying their bad habits over time, I can say that Civ IV will be a very big success for Firaxis, and a very delightful product for its fans.

Not much more has to be said really, it is that simple.
 
I think that bluemethod needs to read Soren's power point tittled "Don't Blow it". If he really thinks that Firaxis is totally catering to us C3C veterns.

"The Point

Don’t be afraid to change your target audience

If you put something in, take something out

Good rule of thumb:1/3 old, 1/3 improved, 1/3 new” – Bing Gordon"

CS
 
vbraun said:
Why would you care if the game does bad? Afterall they are in some way your competitors.


You are right. In fact, I have read the first post before anybody posted any answer, but I miss the part where he said he is a game developer (Yeah, I know, it is the first sentence, I skip it, pretty stupid). Although at the end of my reading I thought "Ummm... this post looks like one of these letters you find in cnet or other hardware/software review webpages that gives 0's to all categories and says something like "this milimoles brand cellphone is c.r.*.p. I'd better go for the micromoles brand"'
Then, you realize that the poster is really a micromoles sales representative or something like that and that he is advertising his product.

Now, I came back, and I read the replies, and I realized that he might be acting as a sales representative trying to discourage us from buying Civ IV. He didn't say anything about what game he develops, anyway. But it was his first post.
 
I have been advocating for a more realistic Civ in the expectation it would mirror the volatility, the imbalance, the unpredictability, the terrors, the fears, the hopes and the wonder and the glory of this planet.
But does anyone listen…

q (game, but not a developer of)
 
Determinism

I actually agree with the idea that there needs to be a way for civs to come up from behind late in the game. There needs to be a way to leap huge bounds forward, rather than the slow and steady race that Civ currently is. I'm not sure if I agree with the idea that terrorism is that feature, though. It's really more of a modern phenomenon. Civil war and seperatism makes sense from 4000 BC to 2000 AD and might offer more hope, but it could also be implemented horribly.

I've talked about it in a document I put together with some friends called "A Big Vision for Civ 4". There are still a lot of skeptics. I didn't explain how it would work, but some general goals to prevent it from sucking. I could probably write another document on how to make civil wars not suck, because it's such a tricky thing to implement.

Religion Had to be Inadequate in Some Way

As for religion, I never thought it sounded like a good feature. I've posted extensively before, but my main conclusion was that you could only implement religion in a few general ways:

1. realistically flexible, big impact, but too complex. (e.g.: religion is something completely different every single age)
2. simple, big impact, but deterministic and infantile (e.g.: religion always ends up in a nuclear crusade, one religion is always better for war)
3. simple, realistically flexible, but with almost no impact (e.g.: a few empty labels that do next to nothing)
4. no religion

An abstract model like you suggested (and I've seen suggested before) would be even more politically correct, but still runs into the same risks of choices 1-3.

It sounds to me like they picked number 3, which I think is the best choice next to #4. The idea that there could be 6 equal religions with missionaries flying around is much less infantile than making gross generalizations about a religion.

Will Civ 4 Suck?

When all is said and done, I really think your main comment is wrong. Civ 4 doesn't sound like it's being designed for hardcore fans in the least. Nor does it look like it will be a commercial flop. It sounds like they're trying to reach a little bit more into the broader strategy-game market.

It might not be everything you or I hoped, but that won't make it a failure.

It sounds to me like they've got something for everyone.

Civics and Religion for the loyal fanboys.
More detailed combat, better AI, and mod tools for the cynical gamers.
3D Graphics and Improved Interface and Fast Multiplayer for new fans.
And overall pollish that will make the game better for everyone.

I think the overall pollishing phase of the game is hugely underrated for Civ 4's pending success. They've allegedly been playing multiplayer games since a year and a half ago, and the game is yet to come out in half a year. That might not be as exciting as civil war or terrorism, but is guaranteed bigger results.
 
I don't think cIV will suck, I'm really hyped up (and have been for some time) and can't wait to get my hands on it.

I spent way too much of my college time playing Civ II, and bought Civ III right away. I remember how much I hated the game at first. I couldn't build Caravans, had to build seperate Settlers/Workers, couldn't heal my troops in enemy teritory, etc.

Once I finally figured it out, though, I realized all those changes made the game better. That is my only expectation with cIV, that I'll get my brains beaten in until I figure out all the changes that make it a completely new game.

November can't come soon enough!
 
apatheist said:
Which, actually, brings up an annoyance I have with civ (and other games). Why can't they release it like other types of software? i.e., instead of civ1, civ2, and civ3 released once every 5 years as ground-up rewrites, why can't they release an upgrade every year for like $15 that incrementally goes from civ3 to civ4 over the same period? One upgrade might switch from 2-D to 3-D. Another might add 8 new civs and traits. A third might rebalance strategic resources and upgrade the AI. The cynic in me says it's because they can sell us the same expansion pack for each version every time. The optimist in me hopes they'll realize that by pushing out fresh content every year, they'll keep people playing civ who might otherwise have forgotten about it in the 5-year gap between versions. The optimist in me hopes they would realize the reduced costs and increased productivity that comes with evolving a (well-designed) code base rather than rewriting a whole game from scratch every time.
Switching from 2D to 3D is a huge project - in fact, it requires you start over from scratch. Which is what they did. ;) If they were ever going to make the jump over that gap then it can't be done through a $15 incremental boost. The other things you describe are what expansion packs do. If you ignore things like the graphics engine, then if you just keep adding and adding to a game eventually there will be more stuff than people will be able to keep up with. While many hardcore fans would love that the same isn't true of people who casually play Civ.
 
well... heck even with all religions being the same gamewise some people are still ticked off that their religion's promoters in the game are called missionaries... theres just no pleasing some people
 
dh_epic said:
It might not be everything you or I hoped, but that won't make it a failure.

It sounds to me like they've got something for everyone.

Civics and Religion for the loyal fanboys.
More detailed combat, better AI, and mod tools for the cynical gamers.
3D Graphics and Improved Interface and Fast Multiplayer for new fans.
And overall pollish that will make the game better for everyone.

I cannot possible agree more.

Civ IV how I see it now will be commercial success no doubt about it.
They must do some serious damage in order it not to succeed.

This doesn't mean it will be tasty treat for everyone, however it might be especially if the modding is easy and there will be people doing mods, then we are talking about major success.

I'm still sceptical whether it will satisfy my needs but as said above, modding can save a lot to even most critical hardcore fans. And there you go wrong.

Non-critical hardcore fans would probably buy any box of crap that has Sid Meier's name on it (I have seen some of them over here too) and the critical hardcore fans will wait for the results but eventually will wish that they can "tweak and tinker it" to be best in the series.
So both groups buy it, then even those that before were horrified because of the looks of the game will get it, not forgetting that RTS crowd that might consider to get one Turn-based strategy and Civ IV could be it.

How on earth you can even consider Civ IV to be failure?
Now that even the graphics are gone a notch better and there's actual music how you interpret it as failure?
And those things you mentioned:
Linearity, determinism and political correctness will make it playable for wider audience than adding complex strategy elements in free brutal world.
I'm fan of the latter but tell you the truth I believe most of the world want former.

Nobody wants Civ to be something like GTA.
As a history fan I would love to see game that would portray history as dirty as it can come but I know that Civ will never be the game unless we fans make it through some modding and that's were major Civ IV strength lies.

Replayability of self made mods.
Only heaven is the limit and your ability to "fly" of course.

I seem to be in maximum overdrive right now about how successfull Civ IV will be so I have to jus stop.............
 
Being designed for a fairly hardcore audience (and yet, by all signs one that's less hardcore than the audience CivIII was aimed at) doesn't mean a game is a failure. We all want a game to be polished and play smoothly, but at the same time everyone craves some "rough edges" in the games they play (OK, not everyone--but those that don't, just don't play games period). The level of tolerance varies from person to person, and hardcore gamers are much more accepting--indeed, even demanding--of game design "flaws". It boils down to a matter of taste--game design is not an objective science, and you cannot mathematically measure how many "fun units" a game will produce. I personally agree with the individual points you make about CivIV's gameplay, but there are plenty of hardcore fans who would happily argue you to death about them and would refuse to touch any Civ-like game that did not make these "mistakes"--it is pretentious to the extreme to say that the opinions of these players don't matter because "they don't know what's good for them". As far as commercail success goes, sure, maybe Firaxis could move more copies if they smoothed out the gameplay--but then, maybe not. Logic dictates that they have to be doing something right, as the Civilization series has always been a reasonable success despite being riddled with all the apparent defects you mentioned and many others besides. Aiming for a broader audience means competing in a larger market--there'd be greater potential there, yes, but also greater risk, as they would be losing their reliable niche market.

So, to recap:

1. Civilization's developers seem to be happy; they're making the game they want to make.
2. Civilization's players seem to be happy; they're playing the game they want to play.
3. Civilization's corporate backers seem to be happy; they're seeing a profit from the game.

Remind me again where the problem is?
 
warpstorm said:
Well, let's see.

Civ1 was designed by Sid and Bruce when they were at Microprose. Civ2 was designed by Brian when he was at Microprose. Civ3 was designed by a bunch of people (I'll narrow it down to Jeff as lead) at Firaxis, a different company than the one that made the previous. Civ4 is by Soren at Firaxis, but for a diffenet publisher.

Oh, I know that the civ series has been developed and published my multiple companies. That's kind of moot, though, because civ1, civ2, and civ3 were almost certainly not designed from the beginning to be expandable like that, and you have to plan on it from the beginning. Even if Sid and Bruce and Microprose was still running the franchise, they'd still be doing it as a series of one-offs. That strategy makes some sense when your distribution system has a high per-unit cost, as then you want each unit to have maximum revenue to amortize that cost. You do better selling one unit for $50 than you do selling 4 units for $15 if you have middleman costs eating up $5/unit before you see your money. In 1990 or 1995, that was definitely the case, as you could only distribute a game through physical stores. Nowadays, the Internet provides a distribution system that is much better suited for that. Furthermore, civ4 has been designed from the beginning to be modularly expandable. Hopefully, they did it from top to bottom so that they can pursue such a strategy.

I know I will buy Civ 4.0 in 2005 for $50. I also would buy a Civ 4.1 for $10 in 2006, a Civ 4.2 in 2007 for $10, etc. Developers and publishers should like that because they get steadier revenue in smaller chunks, as opposed to a big gulp every 4-5 years. Players would like it because they would have a steadily evolving and improving game, rather than one they burned out on after a year and then waited 3-4 years for a sequel.

warpstorm said:
BTW, other than sports titles which are released every year (and charge full price for each installation), what franchise follows the pattern you listed? I can't think of any.

Don't some MMPORGs go that way? Maybe not 100%, but they have more expansion packs that are more sizable? I can't think of any for games that do. I'm saying I can't think of any reason why they can't, and, given the reasons outlined above, that they should.
 
Vael said:
Switching from 2D to 3D is a huge project - in fact, it requires you start over from scratch. Which is what they did. ;) If they were ever going to make the jump over that gap then it can't be done through a $15 incremental boost. The other things you describe are what expansion packs do. If you ignore things like the graphics engine, then if you just keep adding and adding to a game eventually there will be more stuff than people will be able to keep up with. While many hardcore fans would love that the same isn't true of people who casually play Civ.

Maybe I'm dense, but I don't see how a change that is solely at a UI level should require a rewrite of the whole game, especially if you designed it well from the beginning.

Elysium Dreams said:
So, to recap:

1. Civilization's developers seem to be happy; they're making the game they want to make.
2. Civilization's players seem to be happy; they're playing the game they want to play.
3. Civilization's corporate backers seem to be happy; they're seeing a profit from the game.

Remind me again where the problem is?

1. I think they're happy, but they could be happier. I'm sure that leaving out terrorism is annoying to them, but they're publishing a game to a world that seems to think that, if you don't mention bad things, they won't happen. I'm guessing that at least some of them want civil wars and revolutions in there for the same reasons that bluemethod does, but it's not in the game because... well, I'm not exactly sure ;-).

2. I think the players will also be happy, but they could be happier. And if they're happier, they're more profitable. I'm guessing a lot of people have gotten burned out on earlier versions of civ for some of the reasons bluemethod outlined (and for other reasons mentioned elsewhere in these forums). Those are buyers lost, which brings us to 3.

3. They want to see a profit from this game, but if they could see a bigger profit... Granted, most of the potential audience for Civ4 has already decided whether they will buy the game. Some of the people who have decided to pass might get brought back into the fold if they discovered Civ4 incorporated some of these deeper features. Furthermore, Civ4 is setting expectations for Civ 5. If Civ4 is good, but not great, some people won't buy Civ 5. Civilization is a franchise. The backers expect it to produce a consistent revenue stream with each iteration. That sets high expectations, and to meet those expectations, Civ4 has to be more than just good.
 
I have been playing civ III for more than two years and I am still enjoying it. I am looking forward to having civ IV now but I am not sure whether I would be as excited if they release one version per year. I think that you can enjoy Civ III for more than two years until you start to lose interest on the game. (Unless you don't do anything but playing Civ III in your spare time) One year seems too short to me.
 
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