The future of the Conservative party in The UK

[Hamlet]

Do you believe and hope that it is as bleak as I do? Thoughts and opinions please.

 

[sonorakitch]

I think in the long term, the conservative party will rebound. They have not adjusted themselves to the changing times. Too bad they didn't elect Kenneth Clarke.

In the 1980's, the same was said for the leftist parties in both our nations. It is just a phase IMHO.

~Chris

 

[ComradeDavo]

hopefully there screwed
seriously there probably rebound but then again they might go through a similar patch as that of the Liberals 1906-1922 when they regained power surprisingly but then saw them themselves torn apart during the 1st world war (i'm studying this at A level right now) over a split in the leadership which helped the rise of the labour.....wait a sec Tony Blair...Gordan Brown...AHHHH!!!!

 

[Hamlet]

Originally posted by sonorakitch
I think in the long term, the conservative party will rebound. They have not adjusted themselves to the changing times. Too bad they didn't elect Kenneth Clarke.

In the 1980's, the same was said for the leftist parties in both our nations. It is just a phase IMHO.

~Chris

I wonder, though. The Conservative party is essentially dying. It's average membership age is in the mid-sixties (I doubt even it's that high in the republicans), and ironically enough, it has become the conservative party. It has reached a point where it is becoming incapable of change.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/g2/story/0,3604,612110,00.html

Is a fascinating article.

I thought the quotation "no group of 300,000 adults, other than the membership of the Conservative party, would have chosen Iain Duncan Smith over Ken Clarke." rang particularly well.

 

[sonorakitch]

Hamlet,

Excellent article. One thing I will definetely agree with you on this is the Torys are doing a horrible job of gaining new recruitment. They should heed our Republican Parties' initiatives to gain new members...it has worked really well. Most repubs. here are in the mid-40's--the baby boomers. Most kids are leftists, but they seem to grow out of that when they pay their taxes.

Clarke was still the finest tory in Britain. But remember the 1980's, when Thatcher was toasting the opposition and everybody questioned the future of the liberals. It happend here in the 80s.

Great article. Thanks!

~Chris

 

[polymath]

It's a bit late now, but they should have gone for Portillo - he looks the part. Ian and Duncan Smith look like Hague too much, Ken Clarke looks fat, sweaty, scruffy and 'club'-ish. The Tories are in a hopeless mess.
I've never voted in my life BTW (I'm 31). The politicians have to do a lot better than they are at present to earn my vote.

 

[adamsj]

The future of the Conservative party in The UK is that they will last for another 20 years as a major party by their skin of their teeth. And then they will reinvent it! like New Labour! but Fail! Great I hate the Conservatives!

 

[redtom]

They'll steer closer to the extreme right. To compete votes with BNP and NF. And that worries me as I am a minority.


VOTE SOCIALIST ALLIANCE!!!!!

 

[Crazy Eddie]

I don't think there are enough votes to be had from the extreme right to put the Tories back in power at the moment. Hell, the Monster Raving Loony Party used to get more votes. :crazyeyes
The Tories problem is that they need to have a strong leader to rebuild the party, but all of the best candidates are pro Europe, which is what the grass-roots membership wont have at any price. So leadership elections end up with poor compromise choices that don't have any impact. Ken Clarke should have been elected, He's the best option they have to face Blair.

 

[ComradeDavo]

redtom - glad to see another Socialist supporter (though I got another one and a half years till I get the right to vote)

The rise of the BNP and the increasing extreminism of the Conservative party is certainly very worrying

 

[Hamlet]

I am a Lib Dem myself, but I voted Labour last time, as I found the thought of Hague's lot getting in utterly repugant. If it's close between Labour and the Conservatives next time, then I'll do the same, although I doubt it; Labour will probably win easily. I need not have really voted Labour, but when you have right wing nuts as the opposition, you become scared that they may possibly get in.

Personally, I can't really see how the tories can get themselves in any fit shape whatsoever for the next election. The noises of privatisation they will make with regards to services will probably discourage many voters. Basically, what peple want at this time is good services, and they don't feel the tories can provide that. Having a record of 20 years of abuse towards the said services doesn't really help them.

The tories really are in a dire shape at the moment. Defeat at the next election is probbaly inevitable, especially so after the elction of Duncan Smith. How much they will loose by, and whether the party will even be able to recover after a hypothetical third disastorous election will be intresting to watch. If they are ever going to be a relevant political force ever again, they need to serious reinvent themselves fully, and wheher they have the will to do that is highly questionable.

 

[Suppersalmon]

I hope they are going down hill futher than they are as i hate them

 

[Crazy Eddie]

Here's an interesting thought: With more people getting dissapointed at Blair's rather shallow, PR motivated government (I mean, the PPP for the London Underground? that's even more unworkable than Rail Privatisation) and the Tories poor performance at the moment, do you think the Lib-Dems might make a good few seats at the next election? Might even be a hung Parliament.

 

[Hamlet]

Originally posted by Crazy Eddie
Here's an interesting thought: With more people getting dissapointed at Blair's rather shallow, PR motivated government (I mean, the PPP for the London Underground? that's even more unworkable than Rail Privatisation) and the Tories poor performance at the moment, do you think the Lib-Dems might make a good few seats at the next election? Might even be a hung Parliament.

I think they probably will gain a few more seats, although I'm obviouly quite biased on the issue. Very much doubt it will be a hung parliament, though.

 

[Hamlet]

Originally posted by Suppersalmon
as i hate them

Doesn't everybody?

 

[Crazy Eddie]

It wouldn't take too much of a swing in votes to get a hung parliament Hamlet, it's only the UK's "first past the post" system that gives the Lib-Dems so few seats in the first place, which is why they are so keen on PR. They won almost as many votes as the Tories in the last 2 elections IIRC.

 

[Hamlet]

Yeah, but I don't think Blair is going to introduce PR anytime soon. besides, it would be totally unheard of for Blair to go from the majority he has to a hung parliament. That would mean that either the tories or the lib dems made huge gains between now and the next election, and I can't see either possiblity occuring.

 

[Crazy Eddie]

lol! Neither Labour or the Tories will ever introduce PR, they stand to lose out the most if it was brought in. The point about the Lib Dems is that they are the favorite of the tactical voter, if enough of the electorate are dissapointed with Blair at the next election but still don't find the Tories worth voting for (and thats not an unreasonable assumption) then they'll go for the Lib Dems as the only other option. It would only take a 10% or thereabouts shift from Labour to the L-Ds to force a coalition gov next time.

 

[redtom]

If the Lib Dem ever gain any ground, as they will no doubt do. It will (hopefully) push Labour further left as the middle ground will be oversubscribed. My next vote, knowing there is little chance for Socialist Alliance party to win in Middle Class Surburbia will be for Lib Dem.

 

[Hamlet]

Originally posted by Crazy Eddie
lol! Neither Labour or the Tories will ever introduce PR, they stand to lose out the most if it was brought in.

Actually, if it was ever brought in, it would almost certainly mean permanent Labour/Lib Dem coalition government. Bad thing? Decide for yourself.

Originally posted by Crazy Eddie
The point about the Lib Dems is that they are the favorite of the tactical voter, if enough of the electorate are dissapointed with Blair at the next election but still don't find the Tories worth voting for (and thats not an unreasonable assumption) then they'll go for the Lib Dems as the only other option.

Ah yes, but that scenario already played itself out at the last elction: The result? Lin dems win a few seats, Tories stay static, Labour lose a few.

Hardly goundbreaking.

Originally posted by Crazy Eddie
It would only take a 10% or thereabouts shift from Labour to the L-Ds to force a coalition gov next time.

Will never happen. As I said, I'm a lib dem yourself, but you're living in cloud ****oo land if you think the Libs will be in government next time if there is no change is the voting system.