The inevitability of WWI

WWI was pretty much inevitable once Germany had unified. The Balance of Power in Europe had been seriously disturbed and the Great Powers had to sort each other out, so to speak.

What wasn't so inevitable was the side taken by the British. Had German diplomacy and policy in the early 20th century been more subtle it would have been quite likely that the British would have taken the French and Russian alliance to be a greater threat than Germany and Austria-Hungary (after all, that's how they saw it up until that point) and thus taken the German side.
 
WWI was pretty much inevitable once Germany had unified. The Balance of Power in Europe had been seriously disturbed and the Great Powers had to sort each other out, so to speak.

Please read the page before this one on the inevitability of World War I, and basically any post ever made by Dachs on the balance-of-power theory.
 
"Balance of power"? :lol:

If I'm feeling uncharitable, the concept of the balance of power is an opiate for the masses, a meaningless phrase employed by foreign ministers to give some veneer of legitimacy to their actions by appealing to some geopolitical "science". If I'm being slightly more serious, the concept of the balance of power is still a meaningless phrase, but instead of foreign ministers actively deceiving people as to what it actually is, it's a case of those foreign ministers deluding themselves into thinking that the balance of power is a real concept and one that has any effect whatsoever on international relations. It is more dangerous to peace to operate a policy based on this concept of the balance of power than it is to be claimed to have "disturbed" it.

EDIT: Hey, look, ninja'ed. It's not just me that says stuff like this about the balance of power; Lord Baal talks about how much of a crock it is, too.
 
If I'm feeling uncharitable, the concept of the balance of power is an opiate for the masses, a meaningless phrase employed by foreign ministers to give some veneer of legitimacy to their actions by appealing to some geopolitical "science". If I'm being slightly more serious, the concept of the balance of power is still a meaningless phrase, but instead of foreign ministers actively deceiving people as to what it actually is, it's a case of those foreign ministers deluding themselves into thinking that the balance of power is a real concept and one that has any effect whatsoever on international relations.

Can you give some examples of those things happening?
 
Which in particular? That the concept of a balance of power is essentially meaningless needs no historical examples. Nobody has ever bothered to define what one actually is, for instance. That's a rather big stumbling block: how can anyone be so sure that the "balance is disrupted" if you don't demonstrate what it was in the first place? Invariably, different statesmen develop different concepts of what a "balance" is; shockingly, these all seem to favor the country they govern. So the United Kingdom, probably the only state to deploy "balance of power" reasoning before the twentieth century, defined a balance as, loosely, the various states of Europe being too weak and too internally divided to challenge Britain itself, with the unsaid corollary being that the United Kingdom continually grows stronger outside Europe, where apparently no balance is needed. A contemporary statesman from, say, France, would regard this definition as ridiculous. Instead, he would claim that a balance - if he suddenly decided to use this way of putting things - meant that France had no enemies on the Continent, while the UK was prevented from doing anything untoward by rivals overseas, e.g. the United States, Spain, Russia, or whomever. Take the case of Edward Grey, the British foreign minister in 1914. Grey believed that Germany was disrupting the balance of power, yes, and that the UK had to take a stand on the Continent in order to deal with it. It's unclear as to how Germany "imbalanced" things when the Central Powers were unquestionably weaker in every military regard compared to the Entente in 1914: manpower, organization, scale of mobilization, naval quality, financial resources, industrial production, size of battle fleet, number of potential allies to draw into the conflict...hence the rather understandable German view at the time, espoused by the Kaiser and Chancellor Bethmann Hollweg, that Germany was being "encircled" preparatory to being dismantled by war and revolution at the hands of the conniving Entente, and that Germany had to fight in 1914 because if they waited, Germany would have an even smaller chance of saving itself from the abyss.

Furthermore, it has been quite effectively demonstrated - and the more intelligent of the balance-of-power adherents fully admit this - that a balance, even if it were to exist, would neither work towards peace or towards war. Wars have happened because there was a balance and states wished to find a way past the stalemate; wars have happened because there was an imbalance and states wished to "redress" it, too, according to these "realists". And since, again, virtually nobody outside the UK subscribed to this theory for most of history, if a balance has any effect at all on the thinking of statesmen, it did an amazing vanishing act. That last bit is the kicker, at least for me. It's unquestionably true that statesmen do not necessarily view even the concept of a deterrent the same way, and it's further true that statesmen lead their countries into war despite low to no odds of success as they themselves acknowledge. Indeed, this was the case in Vienna in 1914. Why on Earth should they draw back from the abyss due to some abstract "balance" thought up by somebody in some other country's Foreign Office? The natural question to ask, then, would be why the concept of a balance matters at all.

Take Gangor's comment specifically. He claims that the balance of power in Europe was disrupted by the unification of Germany and that the First World War was the inevitable redressing of said balance. That comes out to forty-three years of imbalance with no general European war and a sizable increase in living standards across the continent, whereas a redressed balance led to further political turmoil, revolution, famine, military coups, economic depression, and eventually an even bigger war two decades later. One might tend to think that imbalanced power is a Good Thing for peace. Of course, he doesn't demonstrate that post-1871 Europe was "imbalanced" by the arrival of Germany, or how pre-1870 Europe wasn't "imbalanced". There is no inquiry into the intervening four decades between the Treaty of Frankfurt and the July Crisis as to possible 'shifts' of the balance there. And the problem of causation - the ever-present problem of causation - is never addressed. The outbreak of war is painted as a response to a Germany that apparently had gotten too big for its britches, never mind the actual cause of the war being a crisis of internal and external security for the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Apparently Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia because Germany had gotten too powerful, and Russia declared war on Austria-Hungary for the same reason. Right.
 
EDIT: Hey, look, ninja'ed. It's not just me that says stuff like this about the balance of power; Lord Baal talks about how much of a crock it is, too.
I completely agree with you on this Dachs, and I've made posts about it in the past, but I'm not sure where I ninja'd you here? :dunno:
 
You didn't, LS did.
 
Very interesting stuff Dachs, thanks for the reply. TBH though, I meant examples of when statesmen have used the theory as an opiate for the public. Also what's a good book about this sort of thing?
 
Which in particular? That the concept of a balance of power is essentially meaningless needs no historical examples. Nobody has ever bothered to define what one actually is, for instance. That's a rather big stumbling block: how can anyone be so sure that the "balance is disrupted" if you don't demonstrate what it was in the first place?
I certainly have no sympathy for the so called "political realists" here, and you make a a good point very well.

Just wondering how much there's to it where "balance" and "equilibrium" gets confused? A balance, as in a thingy for weighing things would be the basic metaphor. There's just not a lot to indicate it would spend its time in equilibrium, as opposed to doing a lot of near-constant see-sawing. If see-sawing is its normal state, political history described through a "balance" metaphor might make at least some sense?

There's a fair bit of example of shifting alliances, and powers weighing in to make sure no single entity got too much of an upper hand — like the Chinese Warring states, which warred, hence the name, but could go on doing so apparently through a system of constantly shifting alliances — or the 17th c. in the Baltic, with the Dutch seem to have weighed in on either the Danish or Swedish side, to make sure none of these contenders might actually consider finishing the other off for good.

None of this is of course indicators of stability or equilibrium, as much as of a constant shifting and tinkering.
 
Very interesting stuff Dachs, thanks for the reply. TBH though, I meant examples of when statesmen have used the theory as an opiate for the public. Also what's a good book about this sort of thing?
Ah. Well, in that case, look no further than Palmerston, especially in the debate over Belgium, who insisted on trying to play off Continental powers against each other and actually created a greater likelihood of war than there otherwise might have been, or Grey himself, whose balance-of-power formulations as to the causes behind the war eventually found their way into most major published books on the prewar diplomacy over the last several decades.
I certainly have no sympathy for the so called "political realists" here, and you make a a good point very well.

Just wondering how much there's to it where "balance" and "equilibrium" gets confused? A balance, as in a thingy for weighing things would be the basic metaphor. There's just not a lot to indicate it would spend its time in equilibrium, as opposed to doing a lot of near-constant see-sawing. If see-sawing is its normal state, political history described through a "balance" metaphor might make at least some sense?

There's a fair bit of example of shifting alliances, and powers weighing in to make sure no single entity got too much of an upper hand — like the Chinese Warring states, which warred, hence the name, but could go on doing so apparently through a system of constantly shifting alliances — or the 17th c. in the Baltic, with the Dutch seem to have weighed in on either the Danish or Swedish side, to make sure none of these contenders might actually consider finishing the other off for good.

None of this is of course indicators of stability or equilibrium, as much as of a constant shifting and tinkering.
Yeah, that's the way a modern realist looks at things: I think I remember Winner alluding to this back when he still visited CFC. I certainly agree that it might be descriptive, but it certainly isn't a policy for the maintenance of peace (so, what's the point?) and it definitely doesn't describe anything systemic and actually identifiable.
 
The "balance" metaphor makes sense, but not in terms of a balance of power. My brother-in-law converted me to the idea of a balance of threat, rather than power. In this theory, which is only around 20 years old, states attempt to balance the level of threat they face from certain nations. It's also entirely subjective; WWI is actually a great example, in that France felt more at threat from Germany than Russia, due to Germany's closer proximity, its previous successes over France and Kaiser Wilhelm's general verbal asshattery. Under the BoP doctrine, France would be far more likely to ally with Germany against the far more powerful Russia, rather than the reverse, which is what actually happened.

The theory works on how a nation feels threatened by other nations for some reason or other. The example most used is the Cold War (also the example used by the man who invented the theory, Stephen Walt).

During the Cold War, Western European nations such as France and the UK allied with the US against the USSR, despite the fact that the US was always far more powerful. A BoP theorist might try to claim that the USSR had more power in the area than the US, meaning that a British alliance with the US actually balanced out the forces in the area, so that Anglo-American power could achieve equilibrium with Soviet power in the region. This argument is crap, since the US always had more power than the USSR, even in the USSR's own backyard of Europe, dating from 1945-present.

A BoT theorist, on the other hand, will simply point out one incontrovertible truth: the UK and other Western European states felt directly threatened by the USSR, with its communist system and apparent expansionism. They did not feel threatened by the capitalist - and previously isolationist - US. Therefore, it made perfect sense to ally themselves with the regional powerhouse (the US), in direct contravention of BoP doctrine, in order to defend themselves from the regional bogeyman (the USSR). When Charles De Gaulle recognised that the USSR was no longer much of a threat to France and decided that the US was actually more of a threat to France than Russia - probably wrongly - he withdrew from NATO. BoT is subjective, whereas BoP is objective, and demonstrably false.
 
Dachs, how seriously did contemporary statemen take the balence of power idea? It seems like they should have known better after the Congress of Vienna failed to maintain the BoP.
 
The whatnow? To the extent the BoP exists, the Vienna Congress didn't fail. I mean, there were slight hiccups like the Crimean War, decades down the line, but I think the vast majority of historical analyses (other then sour grapes from the 48 crowd) have found the Vienna Congress a reasonable success for maintaining peace.
 
The whatnow? To the extent the BoP exists, the Vienna Congress didn't fail. I mean, there were slight hiccups like the Crimean War, decades down the line, but I think the vast majority of historical analyses (other then sour grapes from the 48 crowd) have found the Vienna Congress a reasonable success for maintaining peace.
I believe I read somewhere that Metternich's goal was to maintain European peace for twenty years. He managed to get fifty. Though the quote I'm thinking of may well be misattributed.
 
The "balance" metaphor makes sense, but not in terms of a balance of power. My brother-in-law converted me to the idea of a balance of threat, rather than power. In this theory, which is only around 20 years old, states attempt to balance the level of threat they face from certain nations. It's also entirely subjective; WWI is actually a great example, in that France felt more at threat from Germany than Russia, due to Germany's closer proximity, its previous successes over France and Kaiser Wilhelm's general verbal asshattery. Under the BoP doctrine, France would be far more likely to ally with Germany against the far more powerful Russia, rather than the reverse, which is what actually happened.

The theory works on how a nation feels threatened by other nations for some reason or other. The example most used is the Cold War (also the example used by the man who invented the theory, Stephen Walt).
It certainly isn't worse than BOP, and seemingly a more realistic model. Except... the level of anthropomorphization of political entities like states looks to be massive. Individual psychology as applied to states?
 
It certainly isn't worse than BOP, and seemingly a more realistic model. Except... the level of anthropomorphization of political entities like states looks to be massive. Individual psychology as applied to states?
It suffers a bit from me condensing the crap out of it. It's my fault for anthropomorphising it, not the original theory. BoT recognises that the leadership of a state has a tremendous influence on its actions - unlike traditional realism, which states that in order to maintain BoP states will always act in very similar, predictable ways, which is demonstrably false - but there are some basic rules which hold up across the board.

For examply, states will never intentionally increase the level of threat to themselves; even if they appear to do so, this will be intended to limit the actual threat. The current North Korean shenanigans are a prime example: they seem to be openly risking war with SK and the US - thus increasing the level of threat - but in the process they seek to coerce SK and the US into giving them aid, thus propping up their failing regime - thereby actually decreasing the threat of internal collapse.

It's far more complex a theory than I can state here on CFC without basically just regurgitating something my brother-in-law dictates to me, but I've yet to see a successful argument against it, unlike all other international relations theories I've seen.
 
Dachs, how seriously did contemporary statemen take the balence of power idea? It seems like they should have known better after the Congress of Vienna failed to maintain the BoP.
Like I mentioned before, very seriously, in Britain. Not at all, anywhere else. I assume you haven't been reading the thread, otherwise you wouldn't have said what you did about Vienna. :p

Outside of my usual pissing and moaning about the use of the phrase "balance of power" seriously, the Vienna congress and the concert of Europe that it inaugurated essentially prevented Great Power wars from breaking out until after all of its initial formulators had been died or been ousted from power. Admittedly, you asked about the "balance of power", not the maintenance of peace; since the "balance of power" has nothing to do with peace, technically I'm not talking about what you asked about at all. Think of it this way: imagine you asked a Makhnovite anarchist about how well the price system was working out for her. That's basically what you just did. ;)
 
Think of it this way: imagine you asked a Makhnovite anarchist about how well the price system was working out for her. That's basically what you just did. ;)

That's a Bill Simmons analogy if I've ever seen one.
 
That the concept of a balance of power is essentially meaningless needs no historical examples.
Strawman.

that's a rather big stumbling block: how can anyone be so sure that the "balance is disrupted" if you don't demonstrate what it was in the first place? Invariably, different statesmen develop different concepts of what a "balance" is; shockingly, these all seem to favor the country they govern.
What a load of crap. "Balance of Power" isn't a policy or justification for anything - it just is. Its disruption has a number of consequences, however. Nations work in their own best interests, and if these interests are threatened (for example by a neighbour becoming very powerful) then naturally they do what they can to avoid the threat. France discovered during the Franco-Prussian war that they now had a neighbour which was far more powerful than them, and so they sought to find allies to reduce the threat. France's efforts in this regard were far more pertinent to the start of WWI than anything the British did.

It's unclear as to how Germany "imbalanced" things when the Central Powers were unquestionably weaker in every military regard compared to the Entente in 1914
W...T...F? Have you read history? The Franco-Prussian War? A now-unified and industrialized Germany? Russia may have had a big army, but it was poorly equipped and lead. Hell, they lost a war with Japan.

understandable German view
Uh, no. Germany of the late 19th and early 20th century acted like a spoiled child not being paid enough attention to. Abandoning the restraint of Bismark, they precipitated the biggest arms race in history (at that time) and sought to bully it's neighbours into doing what it wanted. Frankly, from the point Bismark was removed war was inevitable.

Furthermore, it has been quite effectively demonstrated - and the more intelligent of the balance-of-power adherents fully admit this - that a balance, even if it were to exist, would neither work towards peace or towards war. Wars have happened because there was a balance and states wished to find a way past the stalemate; wars have happened because there was an imbalance and states wished to "redress" it
Rational wars happen because one side feels they have an advantage over the other, ie power is not balanced. WWI and everything around it (at least from the perspective of the Central Powers) was not in the least rational. Germany was easily the most powerful nation in mainland Europe, but didn't know what to do with their power. They wanted prestige and recognition but didn't receive enough to satisfy their hubris. Austria was looking outward for a way to solve internal problems.

And since, again, virtually nobody outside the UK subscribed to this theory for most of history, if a balance has any effect at all on the thinking of statesmen, it did an amazing vanishing act. That last bit is the kicker, at least for me. It's unquestionably true that statesmen do not necessarily view even the concept of a deterrent the same way, and it's further true that statesmen lead their countries into war despite low to no odds of success as they themselves acknowledge. Indeed, this was the case in Vienna in 1914. Why on Earth should they draw back from the abyss due to some abstract "balance" thought up by somebody in some other country's Foreign Office? The natural question to ask, then, would be why the concept of a balance matters at all.
Austria was rotting from the inside. Like many authoritarian powers whose lights are dimming, they tried to divert the attention of their people by causing trouble abroad - in this case the balkans. This was the spark.

The keg however was more complex, and it is this which the threat is about. Germany, afraid of encirclement (Bismark's "le cauchemar des coalitions"), build up it's military to the point where the surrounding nations felt so threatened that they had to form strong alliances to counter the threat, thereby increasing German paranoia. Britain must have been worried by this, but were unsure initially who to back. In fact were it not for inept German diplomacy and naval policy they likely would have been on the other side - negotiations were going on as late as 1912.

Apparently Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia because Germany had gotten too powerful, and Russia declared war on Austria-Hungary for the same reason. Right.
Germany to Austria July 6 1914: "Austria must judge what is to be done to clear up her relations with Serbia; but whatever Austria's decision, she could count with certainty upon it, that Germany will stand behind her as an ally." Without this reassurance, Austria would never have provoked Russia by invading Serbia.
 
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