The inevitability of WWI
- Thread starter Lord Baal
- Start date
LightSpectra
me autem minui
Notice how all of the sources there are over 40 years old? World War I scholarship has changed dramatically in the recent two decades.
r16
not deity
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here is a short version about the inevitability of WW1 . America is having such a boom with oil , the internal combustion engine offers new ways of wealth . And oil territory is guessable . Which means one can gaze at the sand , sort of , and have incredibly detailed for the period maps that were still locked in safes by the time American troops stood guard at the oil ministry watching the plunder going on all around . One can indeed foresee future and weigh the scales with this and that . Then somebody with the blackest of hearts offers the option for easy riches , the sunseekers win the bidding with the best , you know , railroading is also a big biz in those days . No need to comment on the naval race , which was bound to peter down when America the actual Ascendant would join in with gusto , now my track record would lead to accusations that ı see 'em Yanks kinda dumb , but they have a knack for observing . If there was any valid reason to have dreadnoughts for Europeans , so there would be for Americans and they sometime along the race would notice that they actually had the potential to have a larger fleet than , say , the Great Britain . Though before Washington of 1922 could be started a decade earlier , Italians proved Ottoman reforms were going nowhere . And then there was the disaster of the Balkan Wars . Great Powers were careful about a re-run of 1897 but the "Balkanians" , not that there is a such a word but ı need the filler wordcount , had just cooperated with the Jeune Turc riding in triumphant columns into Istanbul itself to shoot people in any kind of non European garb , toppling the evil despot etc etc and were fully aware of the weaknesses and the risk that the German railroad would one day be carrying oil west and money east for "perestroika" , rewamped military power and buying off opinion leaders of subject people . The last was something the Ottomans were so good at at , until the very end . If there was a time to defeat the Ottomans , it was now , and not tomorrow . Because the line meant maybe another century of Ottomans .
so we have a period of calculation where everybody assesses the situation , amicably to avoid an accident of any kind , the West of the time decides on wholesale destruction of the Ottoman Empire , while the East , namely the Germans and Austria-Hungarians see they have been dealt a heavy blow as now there is no "continious land connection " to oil . Yeah , the Bosphorus causes the quotation marks but even then there is not much chance of a naval blockade inside Marmara , and naturally before one reminds me oil is best carried in tankers , Russian railroading style allow for oil transport , in long lines upon lines of blackened wagons , as ı saw in 1981 in Bulgaria with my family , visiting relatives living that side of the border . One might very well argue that the assassination was pre-discussed not as a factual plan but a wargame of sorts where the German speakers preferred the fiery guarantee of armed progression against various Balkanian masses (who looked good only because the Ottomans were simply so bad and would meekly accept anything anyhow as below ) against uncertain promise of various reforms that might revitalize the Dual monarchy , or more probably fail utterly , losing valuable time . Because oil could also revitalize Russia and they looked far more threatening then a 600 years old catalogue of misery . " Better dead now then R.. later " . This thing has really a history ... And the factual plan was also discussed in various languages other than Serbo-Croat . Luckily for US , they are not charged with that one .
because German oil was in the Ottoman Empire , and that was one of the reasons the West of the time decided on our destruction , to deny the said oil , Germans could not allow it happen . As such they had to be destroyed as well . And the Germans were quite ready to deal the same . Because the simple overlying reason is the world had finished , there were no more colonies to be grabbed from savages ; which was the proof of manhood at the time . And the brilliant minds of the period , there are always brilliant minds u know , decided it would be equally easy to destroy million strong armies as it was machine gunning 1000 spear/shield guys .
me qouting myself , but it fits .
"Back in 1914 , there was the Great Powers deal to assign two European governors to Anatolia . The government of the time could not dare opposing one bit though they were confident of Kaiser sweeping the remaining Great Powers with ease , they entered the war afterall . So only because there were 3 big men :
a) Enver chose Turkic lands yet to be carved out of the Russian empire , hence the Sarıkamış affair where he lost 78 000 to General Winter and 12 000 to Russians while he gainfully used the on-off-on telegraph lines with questions about the health of his dog he had left back in Istanbul
b) Talat was content with whatever rump of Anatolia that would be available and he followed the certain German brilliance about relocating undesirables
c) and Cemal the king of Arabia to be , yet who didn't pay much attention to the famine that had gripped his lands and must have done in equal numbers of locals and undesirables , if one is ever ready to accept Encyclopedia Brittanica or the like. None of the trio has been avenged . "
so we have a period of calculation where everybody assesses the situation , amicably to avoid an accident of any kind , the West of the time decides on wholesale destruction of the Ottoman Empire , while the East , namely the Germans and Austria-Hungarians see they have been dealt a heavy blow as now there is no "continious land connection " to oil . Yeah , the Bosphorus causes the quotation marks but even then there is not much chance of a naval blockade inside Marmara , and naturally before one reminds me oil is best carried in tankers , Russian railroading style allow for oil transport , in long lines upon lines of blackened wagons , as ı saw in 1981 in Bulgaria with my family , visiting relatives living that side of the border . One might very well argue that the assassination was pre-discussed not as a factual plan but a wargame of sorts where the German speakers preferred the fiery guarantee of armed progression against various Balkanian masses (who looked good only because the Ottomans were simply so bad and would meekly accept anything anyhow as below ) against uncertain promise of various reforms that might revitalize the Dual monarchy , or more probably fail utterly , losing valuable time . Because oil could also revitalize Russia and they looked far more threatening then a 600 years old catalogue of misery . " Better dead now then R.. later " . This thing has really a history ... And the factual plan was also discussed in various languages other than Serbo-Croat . Luckily for US , they are not charged with that one .
because German oil was in the Ottoman Empire , and that was one of the reasons the West of the time decided on our destruction , to deny the said oil , Germans could not allow it happen . As such they had to be destroyed as well . And the Germans were quite ready to deal the same . Because the simple overlying reason is the world had finished , there were no more colonies to be grabbed from savages ; which was the proof of manhood at the time . And the brilliant minds of the period , there are always brilliant minds u know , decided it would be equally easy to destroy million strong armies as it was machine gunning 1000 spear/shield guys .
me qouting myself , but it fits .
"Back in 1914 , there was the Great Powers deal to assign two European governors to Anatolia . The government of the time could not dare opposing one bit though they were confident of Kaiser sweeping the remaining Great Powers with ease , they entered the war afterall . So only because there were 3 big men :
a) Enver chose Turkic lands yet to be carved out of the Russian empire , hence the Sarıkamış affair where he lost 78 000 to General Winter and 12 000 to Russians while he gainfully used the on-off-on telegraph lines with questions about the health of his dog he had left back in Istanbul
b) Talat was content with whatever rump of Anatolia that would be available and he followed the certain German brilliance about relocating undesirables
c) and Cemal the king of Arabia to be , yet who didn't pay much attention to the famine that had gripped his lands and must have done in equal numbers of locals and undesirables , if one is ever ready to accept Encyclopedia Brittanica or the like. None of the trio has been avenged . "
LightSpectra
me autem minui
Lone Wolf
Deity
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All that discussion in that thread is hopelessly outdated. The real up-to-date method of learning history is interpreting everything in Freudian terms, connecting everything with the libido and sexual complexes. Socio-political analysis is soooo last century.
LightSpectra
me autem minui
Major wars haven't ceased because of the U.N. or nuclear deterrence; it's because of overpopulation. Back in the day, knights would fight to the death for the prettiest lass in the land. Such enduring motivations would naturally go all the way up to the monarch. Nowadays, you can hardly cross the street without seeing at least one breathtakingly gorgeous lady from afar. Assuredly there's less reason for soldiers to get wounded on foreign soil if they can find another beautiful lady just as easily, that cares less about honor and more about poetry or being able to sing their favorite Paramore song.
m i doin dis rite?
m i doin dis rite?
Lone Wolf
Deity
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More or less, but it's not dark, not subversive enough. Now, saying that the Russian Revolution was an expression of "castration complex" on part of the Russian masses, the desires to disempower the "Father" figure represented in the Czar - now, here we're onto something!
r16
not deity
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There is an awful tendency on part of the human mind to assign dumbest mistakes to preplanned actions , say the way Austrian police , secret service .everybody who were paid for the job lost track of what they were doing while the Serbian discardables failed what they were supposed to be . Result being since the first lot had failed , the Archiduke somehow had to be offered as a duck in the pond , to the overseer , who had to do it on his own . It is mere stupidity , not a collusion of interests of sorts . Americans were very "minor players" at the time , content with western hemisphere .
a clearer translation would be German speakers talking about future needs to attack Serbians would have developed contingency plans on what to do , say when a Serbian milkman threw a dynamite at a parade in Vienna . Other major players would have discussed about the ways to paralyse the weaker part of the German speakers . Incomprehensible allright but who leaks such things ?
To the original question, it depends on several things:
Your outlook on life:
If you believe in fate, it was clearly inevitable along with every other event in history.
Barring that (which would make this discussion pointless) there are two things that come to mind:
When are we talking about:
I do believe that the political situation made avoidance impossible by July 6, at the latest, following Germany's promise to support Austria. Move earlier and the avoidabilitiy increases dramtically.
Your definition of WWI:
Are you speaking of specifically large scale war rising from the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand? Or a major war with the same layout of participants? Or just a major European war? And what time period would these latter options have to occur during?
I would say a major European war was immensely likely, even if not starting in July 1914, within a couple decades. But does this count as WWI?
Your outlook on life:
If you believe in fate, it was clearly inevitable along with every other event in history.
Barring that (which would make this discussion pointless) there are two things that come to mind:
When are we talking about:
I do believe that the political situation made avoidance impossible by July 6, at the latest, following Germany's promise to support Austria. Move earlier and the avoidabilitiy increases dramtically.
Your definition of WWI:
Are you speaking of specifically large scale war rising from the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand? Or a major war with the same layout of participants? Or just a major European war? And what time period would these latter options have to occur during?
I would say a major European war was immensely likely, even if not starting in July 1914, within a couple decades. But does this count as WWI?
I
ed.
Lone Wolf did. Nobody disagreed with him so he must be right.
It's a history thread and we're pointing out how incredibly inaccurate his historical views were. Nothing wrong with that. I don't recall anyone turning it into a pissing contest or letting personal egos get into it. The closest was me, saying I'd love to pick his argument apart but that Masa and Dachs had already beaten me to it. I like picking arguments apart, so my problem's with those two assassins of joy, not Bucky.
And Lone Wolf: That stuff is frigging golden.
sophie
Break My Heart
For what it's worth, I love reading you guys picking apart these arguments.
I do as well. I even like them picking apart my own arguments.
Never hurts to be better informed.
innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
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Hopefully for the more accurate.
LightSpectra
me autem minui
The French government has a policy of not declassifying war documents until 100 years after-the-fact. World War I historians are going to have quite a bit of work on their hands this decade; I think the issue on most of their minds is exactly how widespread the 1917 mutinies were.
