The Stock Market...?

Skullbones

Captain
Joined
Dec 14, 2002
Messages
1,085
Location
on a 40 gun frigate
I admit it. When it comes to economics, I'm ignorant bordering on moronic. It makes absolutely no sense to me and so I'm hoping someone can shed some light on this subject for me.

The Stock Market. Just what IS it? How is it everyone (not everyone I guess) is at one point rich and happy and the next day some guy named "Bob" wrecks a car/finds rockets in Iraq/forgets to shred a document and suddenly everyone has a whole lot less money and is worth less??? I don't get it. Stocks go up and down, somebody says "Hey, I'll give you $1,000,000 for .0001% of Company X." The next day they sell it back for $1,500,000 having done absolutely nothing.!?!. Just what does this do? It all sounds like a small kid tricking another kid with the line "I'll give you 2 dimes for a quarter."

I was talking about the crappy job market in my area with my girlfriend yesterday. I mentioned the economics of the area has gone to garbage. She said it was because they were overinflated and were bound to fall. What and how exactly does the market get inflated in the first place???

Ack! I don't get it! :wallbash:
 
The only people who get rich off the market are the people who run it.

They draw a percentage whether it's up or down.

Some years ago, I worked for NY Stock exchange, right on the trading floor you see on MSNBC.
I wouldn't trust those bums with one cent of my money.
 
Well, for starters, it's no different from the fact that the value of a house rises and falls based on market perceptions. Here in Toronto, when there were no jobs downtown in the early '90s, people percieved that the place was a lousy place to live and no one bought property. Hence, it got harder to sell property. Hence, prices dropped for those people who needed to sell if they wanted to find buyers.

Now, jobs are everywhere, so the reverse is happening. Downtown is a hip place to live, so the values of properties skyrocket, because the lineup to buy them is bigger. It's real as long as someone is willing to pay more.

Likewise, with stocks. Back when Enron (to pick a random example) was percieved as something that would generate a profit for its owners...

R.III
 
There are some people here for whom economics is their job/passion/religion, so you will no doubt get answers to your questions. I am NOT one of those people, however...

Edit: I was TOO SLOW! One has already shown up. :D
 
The stock market is an example of mass self-delusion. If we all THINK our Priceline.com stock is worth more than three major airlines combined, then it is. Eventually, however, reality kicks in. The late 90s were an "overprice" time when everyone was willing to pay many times the actual value of stock because they thought the companies had enormous futures. However after the bubble broke, and reality started to kick in again - for example the dismal failure of banner ads - then stocks "readjust" to their REAL values. That means a lot of people lose money - unless you're already rich, in which case, by a mere coincidence, you pull out your money JUST IN TIME :hmm: ;)
 
As I see it, market value is all really just good will. The value that really matters is called book value which is what a company is actually worth, but the market value is what the company is traded for because of what people think of the company. (Someone correct me if I said that wrong)
 
Hmm... ok. I think I understand. But, now it actually sounds kind of strange. So, who decides the price of the stock? Does somebody working for the SM get a note saying something like, "Everyone thinks Priceline is worth more than it is!" and then goes and changes the price of the stock?
 
Originally posted by Skullbones
Hmm... ok. I think I understand. But, now it actually sounds kind of strange. So, who decides the price of the stock? Does somebody working for the SM get a note saying something like, "Everyone thinks Priceline is worth more than it is!" and then goes and changes the price of the stock?

It works like this. When someone buys (a significant enough amount) of a stock, the stock's price goes up. When someone sells in the same fashion, the stock goes down.

Example: When the Enron scandal became public, there was a massive selling off of the stock, and therefore the stock's price plummeted from upwards of $50 a share down to a few cents a share.
 
Originally posted by titansfan216


It works like this. When someone buys (a significant enough amount) of a stock, the stock's price goes up. When someone sells in the same fashion, the stock goes down.

Example: When the Enron scandal became public, there was a massive selling off of the stock, and therefore the stock's price plummeted from upwards of $50 a share down to a few cents a share.

If nobody sold their stock would the price never go down, then?
 
Originally posted by Skullbones


If nobody sold their stock would the price never go down, then?

Correct, I think. However, this is an impossible scenario, because then nobody would be able to spend any of that money, or gain anything from investing at all.
 
Originally posted by Skullbones
Hmm... ok. I think I understand. But, now it actually sounds kind of strange. So, who decides the price of the stock?

The price is decided by the traders. It is important to remember that people don't just buy and sell stocks, they trade them. Whenever someone buys or sells, there is someone at the other end doing the opposite. I offer 10 shares of Priceline for $20/share. You want to buy 10 shares, but only want to pay $0.20/share. We're not going to trade. Trading occurs when the bid (price offered to buy at) matches the ask (price offered to sell at). So maybe we agree to trade at $1.25. Maybe someone sees us do that and tries to sell his shares at $1.30. If someone is willing to buy at that price, the trade happens. The stock "price" is the price where the last trade was executed.

This is oversimplified, but the general idea should be correct.

Someone can flame me if I'm wrong.
 
Originally posted by Skullbones
I don't get it. Stocks go up and down, somebody says "Hey, I'll give you $1,000,000 for .0001% of Company X." The next day they sell it back for $1,500,000 having done absolutely nothing.!?!. Just what does this do? It all sounds like a small kid tricking another kid with the line "I'll give you 2 dimes for a quarter."
Well, stock markets don't deal with values, they deal with expectations. The price of a stock represents the common opinion on how much it's going to be worth in the future - "or in the time past the future" as a german newspaper put it.

Around 98/99 everyone (including me btw) thought technology stocks were priceless. Remember the AOL/Time Warner merger? What a joke, but it was real.

A little later it became obvious that there's a big difference between possibilities and realities. So some technology stocks dropped by 50%, others by 99%.

Funny thing is that some of those who grabbed the money and ran didn't get away with it this time - especially banks are in severe trouble these days since they all invested into their stock market activities and declared the loan business "dead". Bad idea ...
 
Originally posted by titansfan216


It works like this. When someone buys (a significant enough amount) of a stock, the stock's price goes up. When someone sells in the same fashion, the stock goes down.

Example: When the Enron scandal became public, there was a massive selling off of the stock, and therefore the stock's price plummeted from upwards of $50 a share down to a few cents a share.

That's not quite right, because every time there is a buyer there also has to be a seller.

The stock market works like any other market; prices are set by what people are willing to pay, and by nothing else.

The difficulty in the stock market is imperfect information. People want to buy stocks that they think will increase in value - but it's hard to predict the future of a company or of a whole industry, so values can fluctuate quickly.

If a sudden change in an industry make analysts think it is going to suffer, then a lot of people will want to sell their stocks in that industry. The reason this makes prices go down is simply supply and demand - suddenly everyone wants to sell but no one wants to buy at that price. So the price has to fall in order to get people to buy.

Similarly, if analysts believe an industry is going to take off, then everyone wants to buy in to that industry, but few want to sell. Demand outstrips supply, and prices go up, because those who wish to buy in are willing to raise their offers in order to persuade others to sell.

A bubble happens when everyone thinks an industry is going to make a ton of money, so they all pour money into the stocks of that industry. The bubble bursts when, for whatever reason, the industry tanks.

The recent tech bubble happened in part because analysts got stupid and thought there was money to be made even in companies whose business plans couldn't possibly make money (Cozmo.com's delivery service is a good example).
 
First of all, I just realized that my postcount passed 1000. :D

OK, the stock market: A basic problem for developing economies in the middle ages and Renaissance times in Europe was, how to raise enough money to pay for further development? In other words, how can we sustain growth indefinitely? The Age of exploration, discovery and European imperialism that was launched in the 15th century brought an urgency to this question, as well as the advances in military science that led to standing armies and massive navies. Warfare has always been expensive but in late Renaissance warfare the armies started growing and the governments needed huge navies to guard their trade routes and new overseas possessions. It used to be in medieval warfare that in times of need you'd conscript or buy (mercenaries) armies and build navies (all paid through simple tax levies) but as soon as the war ended they'd be disbanded or left to rot. Now the Europeans needed armies and navies 24/7 - and it was literally bankrupting monarchs across the Continent.

The Dutch were the first to find a solution to this problem, in the 17th century. They invented the public company. The problem they solved was that a company made money through its operations - making and selling a product - but the company itself and its assets had a value that was just sitting there, unreachable and unused. What they did was break ownership of the company into a thousand (+) pieces and sold each of those pieces individually on a public market. The pieces were called shares, (or later, stocks). The stock market, because it's a market where people trade ownership of companies, is called the Equities market. ("Equity" = "ownership".) The amount of shares that a company issued (i.e., "sold") began to grow so that modern companies issue millions of shares. How much of an ownereship you own when you buy a stock is based on percentages - if they issued 1000 shares and you bought 1 stock, then you own 1/1000th of the company. Obviously, people buy many more than 1 stock... To have a controlling interest in a company, you need to own at least 51% of its stock. There's a shady practice (illegal in some places) whereby companies issue x amount of stock and let investors (people who buy their stock) build up percentages in ownership of the company, only to issue more stock later - diluting the value of the original stock, because it skewered all the percentages.

Public companies, like private companies (i.e., companies that are fully owned by a single person or group), must answer to their owners so they hold annual shareholders' meetings where they discuss the company's performance so far and what the plans are for the next year. Shareholders must approve every major decision made about anything the company does, including appointing company officers. Public companies can pay out money to stockholders in profitable years as a form of profit-sharing (called dividends) but they are not obligated to do so.

Off-track a bit, another way a company can raise cash is by borrowing money. They can simply go to a bank and ask for a loan, but the amounts of money they need is usually far more than the average bank can supply so what they usually do is borrow money from investors buy selling them debt securities - called bonds. Bonds behave like credit cards; the company borrows the money investors give it by buying their bonds, and must pay it back on a regular schedule, and with a % interest rate. So, once again: When you buy a company's stock, you're buying a small piece of ownership of the company, when you buy their bonds you're buying a piece of their debt - i.e., you're lending them money, for a %. I work in the bond world, although my company was just acquired a month ago by a stock company. Only companies can issue stock, but many kinds of entities can issue bonds - companies, governments (national and local), as well as assets by themselves; that gets a bit complicated and I won't drag you there. ;)

Now, just like everything you own you have the right to sell stocks, so the moment the first stocks were sold they had to open a stock market. It's very complicated though for a simple reason: since what you own is a piece of a company when you buy a stock, then the value of the company will determine the value of your stock (how much it's worth) - and company values change constantly. There are armies of stock research analysts whose job it is to try to figure out the value of companies, or industries. Stock analysts are usually organized by industry - financial sector, energy, public utilities, technologies, etc. - which they specialize in studying. (I'm a bond analyst; we do things a little differently.) A company's single value is how much $$$ it will make for its owners, both now and in the future. Millions of different factors go into determining this. As you can see from the likes of Enron, Worldcom, etc., they are accounting tricks that can hide problems the company may be having (artificially making the company's value seem higher than it really is, tricking investors into buying the stock), though each time someone like this is caught new laws come out banning whatever they did. Anyway, valuation is the main point of the stock market. Maybe a company is making huge amounts of money now but analysts think the technology will be out of date in 10 years, so they lower the stock's ratings. Or, the opposite - for instance, Amazon.com (the online bookstore) wasn't making any profit at all for years but analysts still believed that someday it would, so they gave it higher ratings. There isn't a standard, but the general way analysts rate stocks is by declaring a stock either a "Buy" (i.e., a good stock to buy because you'll make money off of it if you do so), a "Neutral" (doing OK for the moment but the future isn't clear yet) or a "Sell" (If you buy this stock or you already own it you will lose money so get it out of your portfolio ASAP!). Like I said, millions of things can affect a stock's price. For instance, the possibility of a war in Iraq is negatively affecting worldwide stock prices because a war would affect the avaibility of oil for at least a short period driving oil and gas prices up everywhere. Well, that cookie you just ate, that computer game you're playing, the computer itself, cars, clothes, etc. etc. etc. like all products need to be transported from where they're made to where they're sold - and because the rpice of oil will likely be higher that means all companies will likely have to pay more to transport their goods, which means less profit. That means stock value goes down.

A market bubble happens when a particular industry or sector is artificially highly priced. The classic current example is the Technologies stock sector. Basically, people became rapidly aware in the 1990s of the internet and they fell in love with it - without ever really fully understanding what it could do or how it could be used. We're still only beginning to understand how it can aid communications now, and even things like energy transfers. Anyway, people just assumed that the internet was a golden goose and anything connected to it would automatically make lots of $$$, so they bought, bought, bought - driving stock prices through the roof. Well, whenever you have an artificial valuation, sooner or later reality will show up and ruin the party. The bubble bursts. After years of technology companies having sky-high stock prices but with almost none of them making any profit, it all began to collapse in 1999. People suddenly remembered that the point of a company is to make money, and far too many of these technology firms weren't. A backlash ensued where everyone avoided any firm's stock even remotely connected to the internet or technology - even those firms that were actually making a profit - and it took several years, until just about now actually, for those firms with good sound business models who were turning a profit to be accurately valued again. Investors are cautiously moving back into technology stocks again, but this time remembering that they are businesses like any other - meaning they need to fit certain criteria before they can realize value in their stocks.

Analysts touched off a scandal recently when it turned out in NYC first that investment bankers (the people who actually organize new stock or bond issues for companies) were influencing the research analysts at their own firm to help sales. In other words, the investment bankers were hired by a company to create more stocks (called an "IPO") and the investment bankers leaned on their own analysts to say that these new stocks were hot stuff - even though the analysts in private e-mails said the stocks stink. This is a common practice unfortunately world-wide, but the U.S. is currently cracking down on it, which is good news for investors.

The ability to take money (or something that has value that can be converted into money), invest it into something else, and get back not only what you invested but more is the basic point behind capitalism. The initial investment (i.e., "capital") makes money for you. Capitalism owes its first baby steps to the stock market, and ever since those first primitive days humans have figured out extremely complex ways to squeeze financial value out of things and places you would never imagine possible. Yes, with these extremely intricate ways of making money there is plenty of opportunity for corruption but keep in mind that most people in the markets are honest and playing by the rules. Every country has regulatory bodies that strictly control what goes on, and while they can never be 100% they keep the market place level and pretty much guarantee that the only way to lose money in the markets is through bad investments, and not through crooked players.

So what's this all mean for you, the average person who might be considering investing in stocks? Because of the above-mentioned market bubble and the analyst scandals, many common people have soured on the stock market but that's because they had unrealistic expectations in the 1990s. Yes, stocks do go up and you can make lots of money in them, but they also go down too (meaning you can lose money too). There is only one thing to consider when you want to buy stocks: yourself. What are your financial goals? Make $1 million in 5 years? Buy a house in 10 years? Pay for your kids' university in 20 years? Your retirement in 40 years? All of these goals require very different investing strategies. One thing financial advisors emphasize is the long-term goals, because in the interim stocks go up and down. In other words, although you may lose money now because the stock market's in the toilet, over a 20 year period you may still make money. It's keeping your eye on the ball. Everyone's situation is different (where they are in life, what their goals are, etc.) so you need to sit down with a professional advisor and sort out the best way to meet your goals.

Does that answer your questions, Skullbones? Hit me with any more! BTW, the investment markets are broken into two categories, institutional and retail. Institutional markets are for corporations and governments, retail markets are for individual people. I work in the institutional markets, meaning I deal with banks, insurance companies, asset managers, trusts, governments, etc.
 
Good stuff, Vrylakas! Thanks for taking the time to be so thorough!

Does that answer your questions, Skullbones? Hit me with any more!

Ok. You said that stocks are sold so companies can have money (right?). What about when people buy gold or money? How does a country determine what their money is worth, is it based on their overall stock market situation? Or is that something completely different?
 
Originally posted by Alcibiaties of Athenae
The only people who get rich off the market are the people who run it.

They draw a percentage whether it's up or down.

Some years ago, I worked for NY Stock exchange, right on the trading floor you see on MSNBC.
I wouldn't trust those bums with one cent of my money.
I would have thought that you would know better.;)

Huge fortunes have been made in the market. Warren Buffet of Berkshire Hathaway for example. The famous raiders of the 1980's, that the media loves to revile, generated Billions, if not trillions of dollars of cash in the mergers.

but the reason that the markets work as well as they do is that as long as the nation keeps growing, so will prices. Sure you can get blindsided if you are not careful, but that is true of crossing the street. Bottom line: the markets are a reflection of the country. If it is healthy, they will be healthy also.

As to the original point, this is why there are mutual funds. Get a handful of professional to pick your stocks for you. Instant diversity. You wont get rich, but you wont get your nest egg eaten by inflation either.

J

PS Happy new millenium V:goodjob: With your per post word count, that must be a trilogy by now.
 
Skullbones wrote:

Ok. You said that stocks are sold so companies can have money (right?). What about when people buy gold or money? How does a country determine what their money is worth, is it based on their overall stock market situation? Or is that something completely different?

Oh, now we're sliding down a slippery slope indeed. Yes, currency value is completely different from stock valuation.

The stock market is only one kind of investment market; there's the fixed-income (i.e., bond) market, the commodities market (silver, gold, pork bellies, etc.), the currency markets - it goes on. And any good investment portfolio is going to dabble in several of them at once - that's called diversification.

Currency is a nasty little business. In medieval times land was the only absolute value, but precious metals (gold, silver, copper, etc.) also had an intrinsic value and they were therefore used in exchange markets. However, the growth of economies (with the commensurate inflation) by the 18th and 19th centuries required something a little more manageable than metal coins for trading. Paper IOUs began to circulate - at first issued by individual banks, governments, local governments, and even wealthy people but eventually brought under national government supervision - and these became currency. The basic idea behind these paper notes was that a government somewhere guaranteed that it would trade x amount of (usually) gold for each one - giving paper money a value. This of course meant that governments had to keep large stockpiles of gold around and as anyone who watches their own government at work knows they can never manage to keep $$$ without spending it, so consequently currency values in the 18th and 19th centuries fluctuated a lot, making currencies very unstable. Economic growth and industrialization was making this system creak already by the early 20th century when disaster struck, in the guise of WW I. WW I wasted vast quantities of wealth in all its participants and mauled their economies to an extent that they couldn't make up the lost wealth. Luckily the U.S. was the exception and was able to keep the international economy teetering along throughout the 1920s but it was not near strong enough to do so indefinitely and things tanked in 1929.

In this period there was a lot of public debate about how currencies should be secured - some opting for the gold standard, others on GDP, some on fairy dust, etc. The basic problem was that there was no international standard anymore, and this really lies at the root of the Great Depression; the West had lost the last vestiges of medieval internationalism in the Great War, but hadn't built a replacement system, and it needed it more than ever. WW II did some more fun damage to the world economies, but something good came out of it. The U.S. finally recognized the need for its leadership, and simultaneously was strong enough to provide it. The Marshall Plan wasn't just about handing Western Europeans a big bag of cash; it was an intricate economic system designed to initially allow Western Europe to re-develop its economy and fully integrate the world's economies in sane ways. One aspect of the Marshall Plan was that the U.S. went over to something akin to, but not exactly the same as, a gold standard - meaning that for every Dollar the U.S. printed it guaranteed that a person could walk up to the U.S. TReasury and exchange it for $1.00 worth of gold. Then the U.S. allowed the Western European currencies peg themselves against the Dollar - so that their value was now guaranteed by the Dollar. This of course lent Washington some political leverage and the expression "Dollar Diplomacy" comes from this agreement (leading, according to some, to "Dollar Imperialism") but it also meant that American government currency policy had significant input from Western Europe, who were directly affected by what happened to the Dollar. This system lasted until I believe 1971, when Charles De Gualle pulled France off the Dollar Standard, and the system collapsed.

Since then, well, this is a dirty little secret but there is no effective valuation for currency. There is no guarantee that a Dollar, Euro, Yen or whatever has any value other than because the government says it has that value. As societies we've become so used to and comfortable with paper currencies that we've forgotten that there used to be an underlying value. There are a few extremist economists who are sounding the alarms saying that the world economy will someday soon collapse because of this, but others say that gold and silver also have arbitrary values assigned them, so what? Currencies are traded on an open market just like stocks and they therefore are valued on the markets according to the economies health and prospects of their issuing goverments, but that's a very limited value. You'll notice that currencies' value is always portrayed in comparison to other currencies in the news; this is because there is nothing else (i.e., no underlying value) to compare them to.

Incidentally the Dollar has been one of the most successful currencies in history. It started in the 14th century (probably sooner actually) as a combination of silver and gold mines in the Joachims Valley in what is today the Czech Republic ("Valley" in medieval German was "Thal", so coins minted in Joachimsthal were called "Thalers"). It soon became a European standard and was used all over the Continent, until being undermined eventually by Spanish-imported South American silver. Its memory as a stable coin currency is why the American Founding Fathers chose it (in its Anglified version, "Dollar") as the new country's national currency.

Unfortunately nearly all countries play political tricks with their currencies. That in fact was one of the major arguments against the Euro by Euro-skeptics, that creating a signle Euro currency would take what is politely called "currency policy" out of the hands of national governments. The U.S. government is currently tinkering with the value of the Dollar, and in my humble opinion in a moronic way. The current U.S. administration wants to lower the value ("weaken") of the Dollar because they believe (based on what I think is an outdated ideology) that it will help American exports abroad (because a weaker Dollar means those exported goods are now cheaper), and therefore create more jobs in the U.S. to make those exports. This is a subtle form of trickle-down theory. The problem is that this "Weak Dollar" theory was developed in the first half of the 20th century, when almost everything an American could want to buy (house, car, toothpaste, clothes, chocolate bar, stocks, etc.) was made in the U.S. The only non-American, imported goods were usually luxury items, that only the more affluent could afford anyway - so Weak Dollar policy became an American nationalist policy. Nowadays however it's almost impossible to buy something that's completely made in the U.S. because the world economy is so much more integrated. Your house, car, toothpaste, clothes, chocolate bar, stocks, etc. are probably at least partially made overseas, usually in many places. This means that a Weak Dollar policy makes it harder for average Americans at home to afford imported items - which now constitute a substantial portion of their necessary consumption. It makes life, even for just the basic necessities, much more expensive for Americans and at the same time weakens their buying power through technically lower wages (since the Dollar is worth less, although they get the same amount in their paycheck). Sadly, Dollar policy is not the only area the current administration is decades behind reality, but that's another topic. ;)

OneJayHawk wrote:

As to the original point, this is why there are mutual funds. Get a handful of professional to pick your stocks for you. Instant diversity. You wont get rich, but you wont get your nest egg eaten by inflation either.

Yup - I didn't get into any of the details. You can either buy stocks directly, or indirectly through investment vehic;es (like mutual funds, insurance annuities, UITs, REITs, etc.) run by asset management professionals.

PS Happy new millenium V With your per post word count, that must be a trilogy by now.

If it can't be said in at least 10 paragraphs, then it ain't worth saying. :D Thanks J -
 
One should also note that the Market is THE most performance driven theatre on Earth. You dont produce, you gone. This Darwinian selection process has produced a clear winner, the Index Fund. 40-50 years ago a small company, Standard and Poors, decided to publish reports on the quality of the credit obligations--Bonds--of various companies. To say the idea took off is an understatement. What was once a two man partnership is now a global behemoth. The area of interest is a collection of 500 companies that S&P tracked on a daily basis, called obviously enough, the S&P 500.

This was at the start just a list of companies, like the Dow 30 Industrials. What people noticed after a while, is that this group of 500 large important companies did quite well as a group, so Vanguard Investments started a fund which bought all 500 stocks. That is the only thing it does. There are no decisions, no analysis, and more relevantly, no costs to speak of. Most funds take $.02-.06 from every dollar invested to pay for overhead, which is called a "Load". Index funds typically take $.0025. This is why they are called "No Load." There is no purchase charge.

One of the simplest things that you can do is park your money in this or one of many other similar funds, and leave it alone. If the economy tanks, you may lose some short term, but over a 20-40 year time frame, you make some real money. Thee key term is "Index Funds." Any investment agent will know what you want. They may not want to sell it to you--no commision--but they will understand.

J
 
Back
Top Bottom