The thread for space cadets!

I'm not much into the technology but it was kinda cool watching them test the engine for their new sls rocket

I didn't know there were so many small start ups building rockets for the satellite delivery market
There's between 30 and 50* start ups working on launch vehicles right now. Most of them will go bankrupt in the next 3 or 4 years. The overwhelming majority of them are based in the US.

*Depending on how seriously you take some companies that are just a name and slick power point presentations at the moment.
 
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Another big issue is budgeting. Big flagship missions are expensive both upfront and on an ongoing basis due to the teams of engineers and scientists you have to pay to continue flying/driving them. Because of this and the way our flaky, year-over-year spending bills are handled by Congress, NASA can't always budget all of the money they need for operating the mission long-term. They choose instead to rob Peter to pay Paul by taking money out of the future ongoing-operations budget to pay for the immediate construction and launch of the mission - or rather they construct the budget such that it's heavily front-loaded to begin with, even if it means they can only afford a short duration of operation. If you can claim success early into the life of the mission, it's easier to go back to Congress and ask more money to fund continuing operations than if you go back to them without total success already behind you.
Real life example of this at work -

Nixon and Carter were both dead set against 'The Ground Tour' option for the Voyager probes. Despite a once-in-a-lifetime planetary alignment, those two presidents were insistent that the missions were to end after just a few years. Because of this, NASA set the mission goals to be a flyby of Saturn and Titan. This was a goal they could accomplish within the limited confines of the mission budget while still being a major accomplishment.

After Voyager 1 successfully flew by Saturn and Titan, NASA was able to leverage all the fan fare of the success to convince Congress to fund a longer-duration mission. With funding assured, they redirected Voyager 2 such that during its flyby of Saturn it adjust its trajectory as needed to flyby Uranus and then Neptune later on but would miss Titan in the process.

Conversely, this is why Voyager 1 missed Uranus and Neptune - setting up the flyby of Titan required a trajectory that would not pass the outer gas giants but at the same time, garnered enough excitement and science returns to allow them to try the even riskier, long-term flight profile for Voyager 2.

The missions were such massive success that Congress still funds them to this day. They are currently staffed mostly by guys in their 60's to 80's who have been with the missions almost since the beginning. They will retire along with the Voyagers themselves - the RTG's that power the probes have between 5 and 10 years left of life at this point and mission operators are deactivating their remaining instruments one by one as they sail into infinity.
 
v'ger will be a fact when humans starting travelling that far . As a museum piece , not as a delivery platform of Force level 12 whatever .
 
There's between 30 and 50* start ups working on launch vehicles right now. Most of them will go bankrupt in the next 3 or 4 years. The overwhelming majority of them are based in the US.

*Depending on how seriously you take some companies that are just a name and slick power point presentations at the moment.

Do we have a list?

I know of the ULA guys, SpaceX, Virgin Galactic, and ARCA. All of them have factories and rockets. Oh, and the New Zealand guys.
 
Someone on reddit did a good write up but I can't find it. These two wikipedia pages contain partial lists.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NewSpace
(Under Business Ecosystem/Active Companies)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_private_spaceflight_companies
(Under Launch Vehicle Makers)

My off the cuff list of companies working on either whole launch vehicles or major LV components such as upper stages:

++ULA
*SpaceX
++Mitsubishi Heavy Industries/JAXA Consortium (Japan)
Boeing
Lockheed (most of the rockets that Boeing and Lockheed make are through ULA though they still retain some independent business lines)
Arianespace
Relativity Space
ABL Space Systems
Moog (US/UK)
Linkspace (China)
OneSpace (China)
Rocket Lab (US/NZ)
Astra Rocket Company
Parabilis Space Systems
Virgin Orbit
Virgin Galactic
Northrup Grumman Innovations Systems (formerly Orbital ATK)
Interorbital Systems
PLD Space (Spain)
Vector Launch
Firefly Space Systems
Orbex (UK)
Generation Orbit
ARCA Space Corporation (US/Romania)
Blue Origin
Stratolaunch
++Great Wall Corporation (China)
++Roscosmos (Russia)
++ISRO/Antrix (India)
IAI (Israel)

++Denotes consortiums/conglomerations which are functionally different than a merger or buy out

As you can see, it's quite a busy field. This list also misses out on a lot of second-tier manufacturers who could all claim to be rocket manufacturers with various amounts of credibility. There are also many more New Space rocket companies that are little more than power point slide decks. All the ones here have progressed to at least hardware testing. All companies listed are American unless otherwise specified. Almost all of these companies are new space companies.
 
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Last time I checked the estimates for Kuiper belt combined mass was about E-4 Earth masses. Granted it's hard to spot the stuff that's out there but 5 orders of magnitude is a big gap. I'd expect we'd see much more objects if the number was higher.
What is E-4?
 
I believe these belts came from collisions between large objects, not pre-planet accretionary processes. The link I posted showing how the Earth had two possible fates or destinies - a water world with a very deep ocean (dozens or hundreds of miles) or a rocky 'dry' world - depended on the arrival of material from a nearby supernova 4+bya, ie the late heavy bombardment. Jupiter didn't disperse the asteroid belt, the hot (radioactive) and heavy stuff from that supernova invaded our system.

Makes sense, a big star blows up, the shock wave compresses nearby gas and dust and our solar nebula forms. Later on the slower moving material from the blast eventually reaches the already formed sun and planets. The Earth got hit by that stuff. So did the Moon absorb the same material? The maria formed from impacts but maybe the debris flying into the Moon came from Earth, not the supernova material.

If both objects were smacked by the same material we should see it in the crusts and upper mantles, but if only one - the Earth - was hit then the ejecta striking the Moon would be a mix of Earth's original crust and the impactor(s), but mostly Earth's crustal rock.
 
The Air Force just spent ~$750 billion procuring 6 launches of national security payloads. SpaceX and ULA each got three launches a piece but ULA is charging 50% more for each launch. The USAF is in a tricky position because it has a vested interest in supporting two independent launch vehicle providers to control costs but at the same time it's still dramatically overpaying to achieve that goal. Since SpaceX won their lawsuit to be allowed to bid on USAF launches, ULA has reduced their prices but they're still much more expensive than their competition.

On top of this, the USAF provides over $1 billion per year directly to ULA as a subsidy to ensure they can always buy rockets from them when they need them.

I thought I wrote about the following before but I can't find the post -
California legislators are asking the USAF's office of inspector general to investigate why ULA, Blue Origin and Northrup were all given development contracts to design their next launch vehicles they will sell to the Air Force. Basically, the USAF is paying those companies quite a lot of money to develop launch vehicles to sell to the USAF but did not provide SpaceX any such funding. Now it can be argued that SpaceX did this to itself because they likely offered up the Starship/Superheavy for development which the Air Force doesn't need. They could have instead bid on a development of a vertical integration capability (SpaceX can't do this and some sensitive USAF payloads require it) or they could have bid on a new, high-energy (read: Hydrogen- or maybe Methane-fueled) upper stage which is also a capability they lack. But they didn't do those things and the USAF doesn't want Starship so they got no money.

The thing is that when SpaceX was developing the Falcon, they got little to no money from the USAF to develop and certify it for sale to the USAF. At the same time, the USAF was handing over those billion dollar subsidies to ULA. So while it's fair to say that SpaceX should have bid something more practical for development, it's also fair to say that SpaceX has consistently gotten the short end of the stick from the USAF.

Then there is the matter of a recent NASA launch contract which went to ULA which SpaceX itself is protesting. NASA is paying a 50% premium for the launch of this probe by ULA without technical justification. The likely reason is 'schedule assurance' which basically means that ULA is rarely late for a launch while SpaceX is frequently late. Of course the billion dollar per year subsidy from the USAF is the sole reason why ULA is rarely late which is deeply unfair. Additionally, the launch is in 2 years and given that commercial satellite orders are way down and SpaceX has cleared most of their backlog, there is no reason to believe SpaceX couldn't make this launch window. Plus, ULA has actually been late with launches lately - while they are pretty much always able to produce a booster in time, the boosters themselves (in particular the Delta IV which is a bit of a hangar queen) have had issues on the pad lately which have caused launch scrubs on the order of months long. So even that advantage is evaporating for ULA.
 
https://phys.org/news/2019-02-volcanoes-asteroid-blame-dinosaur-extinction.html

The dino-killing impact in the Yucatan induced the bulk of Deccan Trap formation on the opposite side of the world.

A more in depth look into this debate. This is kind of cool if they've found that literally the answer is both, since the debate has been pretty vitriolic and long lasting. This is a long and cool story.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/09/dinosaur-extinction-debate/565769/
 
Spoiler :

so , a video takes the Turkish web scene by storm . Some Party Faithful tells of the latest ; so much glorious that there are many warnings about it being a trolling , much like Party Faithful are mimicking Commies and writing slogans on the walls on how the "Revolution" is coming in Ankara due to former Nationalist guy who is the candidate for the Opposition alliance for the local elections . Well , it even made into late night news . So , the guy naturally starts with Mustafa Kemal deciding to make a space center in Izmir of 1928 . Plausible , with Goddart's success in 1920 something and immediate formation of young rocketeer clubs in Germany . Izmir also plausible , the place has 320 or 340 VFR days a year and could be reached by ship back then and like a "civilized" location for summer camps and the like . Won't happen due to finances . So , the leader of the century , which is a discreet claim to an Islamic traditon , in which one person every hundred years comes and fixes wrongs that have arisen in the Religion and discreet as the idiot who will become the next Saudi King claims it "openly" and he is just laughed at . Yes , the PM orders a space base built in Konya . If Virgin Galactic has a spoaceport in New Mexico , expect its visuals distributed here as the secret Turkish Space base , next to the story of Turkish chameleon tanks changing shape and camouflage at will to crush the Kurds before their Independence referandum . And in 2017 a shuttle is launched to Jupiter . It finds extreme reserves of Boron there . Plausible as New Turkey has now launched a washing machine powder / detergent with the same and everybody has alreeady been called on to buy some as a patriotic duty . The reserves will be carried to Mars first , because , well because . Then a pipeline will be built for transfer across the atmosphere . Making New Turkey the only superpower , actually the single power in 2071 .

translation . ı expect the search for the supposed blueblood companies have failed and yet the American trolling continues non-abated . Please shoot them Americans , shall we ? ı categorically reject space elevators , when anything goes wrong on whose head it will fall ? So , ı wouldn't have a single office , single table , single computer company designing one ! When 50 000 tons of payload appears at high hypersonic speed in otherwise still air , without even a bow-wave , a bang is what you should get .


summary , this is what you get when one becomes famous . Do not become famous , it's not worth the hassle .
 
News Roundup:

Russia suffered another Soyuz mishap. They launched a spy satellite they built for Egypt to replace one they previously built that failed after launch. This time around, the Soyuz upper stage (called Fregat) suffered a failure during an injection burn. It was able to recover a bit later and get the satellite where it was going but it's still worrying.

NASA is in talks to buy more seats on the Soyuz later this year and next over fears Boeing and SpaceX will fail to meet their schedule for deploying their new manned capsules. SpaceX just got clearance to do their first unmanned test launch to the ISS with the Dragon 2 capsule today. The launch date is March 2nd.

SpaceX just launched a privately-funded Lunar lander from Israel. It was built to compete in the Google Lunar X-Prize and even though that competition was cancelled, they managed to push the project to completion. Now they just have to land it. Landing is April 11th I believe and I'm very excited for them.

The for-profit arm of Mars One went bankrupt. The non-profit is still around but hopefully this farce is over for good.

Russia published some vague details about a new super-heavy manned moon rocket called Yenisei. I'll add it to the growing list of fantasy programs they are developing. I wish they would just focus on fixing the rockets they are currently flying and finishing the ones already in semi-advanced development.
 
They could have instead bid on a development of a vertical integration capability (SpaceX can't do this and some sensitive USAF payloads require it) or they could have bid on a new, high-energy (read: Hydrogen- or maybe Methane-fueled) upper stage which is also a capability they lack. But they didn't do those things and the USAF doesn't want Starship so they got no money.

I think if SpaceX bid for vertical integration or some sort of Raptor second stage for F9, that would have yielded funding only for those projects, and none for the BFR/Superheavy vehicle. Since SpaceX doesn't want to spend resources on those things, in wouldn't have been useful anyway.

The thing is that when SpaceX was developing the Falcon, they got little to no money from the USAF to develop and certify it for sale to the USAF. At the same time, the USAF was handing over those billion dollar subsidies to ULA. So while it's fair to say that SpaceX should have bid something more practical for development, it's also fair to say that SpaceX has consistently gotten the short end of the stick from the USAF.

Word on the grapevine seems to be that the Airforce launch certification reevaluation might be a way for them to threaten retaliation over SpaceX going over their head with these LSA protests.
 
Vertical integration would open up a lot of contracts for them that they can't currently bid on right now. Those also tend to be the most expensive contracts but I can't say for certain that more expensive translates directly to higher profit margin though I suspect it does.

The Air Force already gave them money to do a design study for a Raptor upper stage for F9. Given how petty their relationship can be at times*, I wouldn't be surprised if there was some element of the Air Force saying F*** off when SpaceX didn't ask for more money to bring that project to fruition.

A Raptor upper stage wouldn't be super useful without significant redesign of the entire vehicle, unfortunately. Methane is less dense than RP-1 which would require bigger tanks. Falcon is already very squirmy, with a fineness ration (length to girth) so high it's pushing the design to the limits. A bigger upper stage to achieve a better total impulse than the current stage would force the rest of the rocket to be redesigned. While Methane does have higher performance than RP-1 in specific impulse and in how clean it burns, the specific impulse is only marginally better and they waste the advantage of a cleaner-burning fuel when the second stage gets thrown away.

Superheavy and Starship would have benefited from this development though. Right now, no one is paying SpaceX (beyond the initial R&D contract - likely spent already) to develop Raptor and build the first flight articles. The Air Force would have paid for almost the entirety of building out a Raptor production line and test facilities.

** The bad blood goes all the way to the beginning of SpaceX. It was the Air Force that provided the initial contracts, logistical support and expertise to help SpaceX build the Falcon 1 - a role which NASA played with Falcon 9 years later. The Air Force really wanted the capability that Falcon 1 offered and is currently pushing the industry pretty hard to develop new small rockets and space vehicle platforms. Anyways, they had begun to plan around the introduction of the Falcon 1 into their stable of launch vehicles when SpaceX pulled the plug over their protest. That was a traumatic break that still reverberates today.

You could even reasonably argue that even though Falcon 1 was a dead end technologically relative to their ultimate goals, cancelling it cost them more in lost contracts and therefore set the whole goal back. If it hadn't been for that bad blood, SpaceX likely would have received Air Force certification years earlier and been able to stop (through competition) the 36-core block buy that ULA received and won a chunk of the lucrative contracts they missed out on as they fought the Air Force in court to be allowed to compete.

In my opinion, Elon makes a lot of unforced errors, despite how brilliant his companies are.
 
Oddly enough, I think I have previously argued with @uppi about why Falcon 1 needed to be dropped for SpaceX to focus on Falcon 9 but with additional hindsight it seems more and more like a bad decision. I think given the state of the launch market then and Elon's goals, it was a justifiable decision. But there was a huge opportunity cost they paid by cancelling it and they made powerful enemies in doing so. Not that the Air Force is truly an enemy now but for a while the Air Force was determined to cause them harm by denying them even a process to work through to be allowed to bid and it seems that they're still beef there to some extent to an outsider like myself.
 
-----Carried over from this thread, starting at this post and immediate responses to it.-----

Yeah, and Operation Paperclip never happened, nor the race beetween USA, Britan and Soviet Union to retrieve as many V2s as possible. And the Mercury-Redstone rocket was not a descendant of the crappy V2s at all, designed by the same guys: von Braun and Arthur Rudolf, who also designed the Saturn V... Come on, nobody like nazis, but give credit where credit is due.

OTOH while the soviets also drank from the nazi fountain, they already had one of the greatest rocket scientists ever: Serguei Koroliov.
This is a different point from what I'm making.

I'm not saying that the Nazis weren't advanced rocketeers - they were hands down the global leaders - it's instead that:

1) Despite their technological edge, the notion that they could have carried this through to the point where they were landing on Mars in the 60's is absurd. They weren't that far ahead. This is a bit like claiming the Chinese would have invented a Warp Drive in '89 if only Chiang Kai-shek had kicked the commies out of the country. It's borderline absurd though thematically, given the West's obsession with Nazi rockets, it makes sense in a setting like that book.

2) The Nazis did not accomplish anything the Allies couldn't have also accomplished had they chosen to do so.

Von Braun spent more money on the V-2 than the US did on the Manhatten Project. For all that spending they got a missile with a range and accuracy so bad that it was completely useless in both tactical and strategic roles. More people died building it than by it though of course that's got more to do with the Nazis being literal Nazis than the rockets themselves - which to reiterate, were pretty crappy designs.

Absolutely the V-2 was the granddaddy of American and Russian rocket lines all the way to today in some cases. And yes, stolen Nazi technology and personnel kick started rocket programs world-wide. But again, my point is that the Allies were capable of building rockets as good as the Nazis but they saw no utility in it and did not. In the end, hypothetical Allied V-2 equivalents during WWII would have been just as crappy as the real ones which meant they would have been a massive distraction from the overall war effort. No plausible German targets would have been within striking distance of a V-2 type weapon until damn near the end of the war and even then, targets may have been in range but the weapons would not have had the accuracy to hit anything anyways. Even with all the stolen technology and unprecedented levels of spending, it took the Americans and Russians another 15 years to develop strategic and tactical missiles that were actually useful.

And I wasn't proudly chanting USA! USA1 USA! when I said the Nazis cribbed from Goddard, either. They absolutely did and you could reasonably make the case that had there been no Goddard* showing the world how to build a liquid rocket engine, there would have been no Von Braun, such was his influence on the field.

You're also being uncharitable by claiming the Redstone and Saturn V were designed by Nazis as well. Yes, captured German scientists played an outsized role in the American missile programs through the 60's but that effort spanned dozens of companies and hundreds of thousands of engineers - the overwhelming majority of whom would have never have had any interaction with Von Braun et al. JPL and Aerojet (two huge players in rocketry) both predated Nazi infusions and worked on a ton of projects that were outside of the scope of what the Americans learned from the V-2. Britain had an active, (though much, much smaller) rocket research field and the Soviets had plenty of talented engineers that could have designed rockets just as well as aircraft.

Engineering was a team sport and while Von Braun was a great coach for the Americans, almost their entire bench was home-grown. Same with the Russians to an even greater extent. None of those countries, least of all the Nazis themselves, could have developed a manned exploration program of the inner solar system by the 60's in any plausible time line in my opinion.

* I was recently debating with @Timsup2nothin about whether or not Venturi would have recognized every part of a rocket engine based on his research. I say he wouldn't have but Goddard is the first person in history that everyone could agree would recognize every part of a rocket engine. His influence can't be understated, the guy was a prodigy that reduced a bunch of theory to practice while still managing to invent theory of his own. Absolute unit. He wasn't just a technical influence either, he was an actual inspiration that got people, including Von Braun and the entire German rocket research establishment, interested in space flight and rocketry.
 
Goddard was obviously one of the founding fathers of rocketry and in general cant but agree with you in everything, however in your previous post I think it was you who were uncharitable (if such word can be applied here) with the importance of nazi Germany in modern rocketry, which is capital. V2 "crap"? Compared with what? With rockets developed 15 years later based on it? The V2 was an amazing achievement for the time but crappy by any measurement we would apply today, just like Little Boy and Fat Man. Nobody knows if the allies would had obtained the same results had they tried, fact is they didn't and modern rocketry is at a high degree descendant of nazi rocketry.
 
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