Things are getting better!

The evidence for progress raises many questions.

Isn’t it good to be pessimistic, many activists ask—to rake the muck, afflict the comfortable, speak truth to power? The answer is no: It’s good to be accurate. We must be aware of suffering and injustice where they occur, but we must also be aware of how they can be reduced. Indiscriminate pessimism can lead to fatalism: to wondering why we should throw time and money at a hopeless cause. And it can lead to radicalism: to calls to smash the machine, drain the swamp or empower a charismatic tyrant.

Is progress inevitable? Of course not! Solutions create new problems, which must be solved in their turn. We can always be blindsided by nasty surprises, such as the two World Wars, the 1960s crime boom and the AIDS and opioid epidemics.

And the greatest global challenges remain unsolved. This does not mean they are unsolvable. In 2015 the world’s nations came to a historic agreement on climate change in Paris, and pathways to decarbonization, including carbon pricing and zero-emission technologies, have been laid out. Since the closing days of World War II, nuclear weapons have not been used in almost 73 years of saber-rattling (including standoffs with the half-mad despots Stalin and Mao), and the New Start treaty between the U.S. and Russia, capping nuclear arsenals, went into full effect just this week.

On these matters, the policies of President Donald Trump —denial of climate change, planned withdrawal from the Paris accord, provocation of North Korea, nuclear arms expansion—are alarming. But continued progress is in the interests of the rest of the world, and numerous states, countries, corporations, political actors and sectors of the military are pushing back against the intemperate plans of the administration.

The challenges lie before us and we keep developing tools to help solve them. The big picture is a positive one while the problem solving takes place a the human level.
 
The only name I mentioned was Narz.
You said:

The article, if you actually read it, is about how the the changes brought about the Enlightenment have significantly improved the world in measurable ways. It is not about your particular life, even though more than most of those living now are reaping the benefits. It is quite easy to find particular things that you find unsatisfactory or scary. Old problems have gone away and new ones have arisen. I think his point, other than to promote his new book, is to make the case for the thoughtful processes of science to solve those problems.
following my post. The part where you addressed Narz specifically is in the next paragraph. you gave no indication in the above paragraph that you were addressing Narz, so I assumed you were addressing me.
 
Best not to assume.
 
It's unclear whether Pinker things that some kind of magical History Force is responsible for making things better, or whether he thinks that the dumb complainers he dismisses as just Unable To Grasp Reality in the first few sentences might have had something to do with these measurable improvements. I also would be interested to see whether things would continue to improve if we took Pinker's ostensible advice and became complacent about everything getting better always, because, something something, the Enlightenment, something something.
 
It's unclear whether Pinker things that some kind of magical History Force is responsible for making things better, or whether he thinks that the dumb complainers he dismisses as just Unable To Grasp Reality in the first few sentences might have had something to do with these measurable improvements. I also would be interested to see whether things would continue to improve if we took Pinker's ostensible advice and became complacent about everything getting better always, because, something something, the Enlightenment, something something.
is thios what you are talking about?

For all their disagreements, the left and the right concur on one thing: The world is getting worse. Whether the decline is visible in inequality, racism and pollution, or in terrorism, crime and moral decay, both sides see profound failings in modernity and a deepening crisis in the West. They look back to various golden ages when America was great, blue-collar workers thrived in unionized jobs, and people found meaning in religion, family, community and nature.

Such gloominess is decidedly un-American. The U.S. was founded on the Enlightenment ideal that human ingenuity and benevolence could be channeled by institutions and result in progress. This concept may feel naive as we confront our biggest predicaments, but we can only understand where we are if we know how far we’ve come.

You can always fool yourself into seeing a decline if you compare rose-tinted images of the past with bleeding headlines of the present. What do the trajectories of the nation and world look like when we measure human well-being over time with a constant yardstick? Let’s look at the numbers (most of which can be found on websites such as OurWorldinData, HumanProgress and Gapminder).

This is at the end of the article:

How should we think about future progress? We must not sit back and wait for problems to solve themselves, nor pace the streets with a sandwich board proclaiming that the end of the world is nigh. The advances of the past are no guarantee that progress will continue; they are a reminder of what we have to lose. Progress is a gift of the ideals of the Enlightenment and will continue to the extent that we rededicate ourselves to those ideals.

Are the ideals of the Enlightenment too tepid to engage our animal spirits? Is the conquest of disease, famine, poverty, violence and ignorance … boring? Do people need to believe in magic, a father in the sky, a strong chief to protect the tribe, myths of heroic ancestors?

I don’t think so. Secular liberal democracies are the happiest and healthiest places on earth, and the favorite destinations of people who vote with their feet. And once you appreciate that the Enlightenment project of applying knowledge and sympathy to enhance human flourishing can succeed, it’s hard to imagine anything more heroic and glorious.
 
Ah, I didn't see most of the second half of the article the first time, must've missed the second quote is an accordion. Okay, heading back...

To what do we owe this progress? Does the universe contain a historical dialectic or arc bending toward justice? The answer is less mysterious: The Enlightenment is working.

This is interesting, because to me the statement "the Enlightenment is working" contains only marginally more content than a statement like "purple gleeblors are very dangerous." "Keep doing the Enlightenment" is a hopelessly abstract prescription. It's a slogan, a platitude, rather than an actual plan of action, just as "the Enlightenment is working" is a platitude rather than a theory or even a description of historical change. The crudest Marxist dogma about dialectics is more helpful than this stuff.
 
That's just it though. Even the people now who aren't having such a rosy time of it are still doing much better than those who weren't having such a rosy time of it 50 or 100 years ago.
100 years ago lot of people were poor. Now as many people are starving as even existed back then.

Are you saying the existence of the middle-class cancels that out. 6 of 7 semi-well off cancels out kids with flies in their eyes?
 
I like these kinds of articles, because it makes me more appreciative of where I am today compared to where I could be. But I also recall how much of this has been subsidized through the destruction of natural capital. I don't mind capital conversion, but I am certainly wary of unsustainable growth. The median person seems to be unable to save money, which means that using part of our current surplus in order to invest in future solutions also seems low. No one my age has a polio vaccine scar in my region, because there was no need. But I also don't know anyone who's serious about donating to upcoming threats on their health, either. I don't know anyone who has serious plans to migrate to a reduced carbon lifestyle.

I am also not sure about the 'by every meaure', things are getting better. There are currently more hungry people now than there were a few decades ago.
Well put. Wsj has an agenda and better believe their agenda has nothing to do with the well being of the common man. It's moral boosting. "Stfu and be glad you're not working in a factory 20 hours a day minion!" is the message. Gratitude is a beautiful thing, it shouldn't be used as a weapon to silence those with concerns about civilizations blind momentum.
 
Ah, I didn't see most of the second half of the article the first time, must've missed the second quote is an accordion. Okay, heading back...

This is interesting, because to me the statement "the Enlightenment is working" contains only marginally more content than a statement like "purple gleeblors are very dangerous." "Keep doing the Enlightenment" is a hopelessly abstract prescription. It's a slogan, a platitude, rather than an actual plan of action, just as "the Enlightenment is working" is a platitude rather than a theory or even a description of historical change. The crudest Marxist dogma about dialectics is more helpful than this stuff.
The spoilered content gets squirrelly sometimes. I went back and redid it this morning because some of post two had disappeared.

IIRC Pinker defines "the Enlightenment" as the thoughtful, scientifically oriented process of improvement.
 
Ah, I didn't see most of the second half of the article the first time, must've missed the second quote is an accordion. Okay, heading back...



This is interesting, because to me the statement "the Enlightenment is working" contains only marginally more content than a statement like "purple gleeblors are very dangerous." "Keep doing the Enlightenment" is a hopelessly abstract prescription. It's a slogan, a platitude, rather than an actual plan of action, just as "the Enlightenment is working" is a platitude rather than a theory or even a description of historical change. The crudest Marxist dogma about dialectics is more helpful than this stuff.
Pinker gets high off his own supply (of koolaid).

The enlightenment inspired Europeans to manifest destiny, raping all pillaging the whole world. We live in soft times where the costs of crime are higher than the rewards. You got cameras on every street corner and anyone in a large city in the 1st world won't go hungry. If fossil fuel supplies get cut off for even a week or two see how enlightenmed people are.
 
Well put. Wsj has an agenda and better believe their agenda has nothing to do with the well being of the common man. It's moral boosting. "Stfu and be glad you're not working in a factory 20 hours a day minion!" is the message. Gratitude is a beautiful thing, it shouldn't be used as a weapon to silence those with concerns about civilizations blind momentum.
You would be more on target to say "Steven Pinker has an agenda." It is his book that he is promoting. What is your agenda?

If civilization's momentum to the future is blind as you say, then what we say, think or do is pretty meaningless. If it is controllable, then listening to smart people is not such a bad idea. In any case understanding how we got to where we are now and seeing the big picture is the first step to understanding how all the smaller pieces fit. changing civilization's momentum happens at ground level, but it only works well when you also grasp how the little pieces fit into each larger element that makes up the big picture.
 
You would be more on target to say "Steven Pinker has an agenda." It is his book that he is promoting. What is your agenda?
Wsj published his agenda therefore it's their''s too.

My agenda is a healthy future for my progeny.

If civilization's momentum to the future is blind as you say, then what we say, think or do is pretty meaningless.
Mostly correct, but we should still act as if we can make a difference.

If it is controllable, then listening to smart people is not such a bad idea.
Pinker may have certain types of intelligence but he believes his own hype too much. A little knowledge is a dangerous thing. Thinking current trends will continue forever is dumb.

In any case understanding how we got to where we are now and seeing the big picture is the first step to understanding how all the smaller pieces fit. changing civilization's momentum happens at ground level, but it only works well when you also grasp how the little pieces fit into each larger element that makes up the big picture.
Ok. But blanket stating everything is already getting better all the time why should we need to change, just get out of the way of progress
 
IIRC Pinker defines "the Enlightenment" as the thoughtful, scientifically oriented process of improvement.

Aargh, then his whole explanation of the process kinda becomes circular, no? I am interested in how this process of improvement comes about, and he doesn't seem to have much to offer in that department. Fortunately, as you probably know, I have some theories. One problem I noticed in the quoted text in this thread is that in noting how much less dangerous various occupations have become, I think Pinker is perhaps ignoring the fact that the growth of the informal economic sector means that many injuries, etc. simply don't get reported and thus don't show up in the statistics.

On a far more basic level, it's going to take a lot to convince me that a world where Donald Trump has an end-of-the-world button is better than world where he doesn't, even if the latter world includes slavery and feudal monarchs and all that stuff.

Pinker gets high off his own supply (of koolaid).

I've been grappling with Pinker for a long time, ever since his book The Better Angles of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined first came to my attention. I think that book makes a number of claims that aren't really tenable It was panned by anthropologists and archaeologists for drastically misrepresenting the levels of violence in pre-state societies, but my beef is deeper: the whole notion that 'violence has declined' essentially relies on comparing two trends. The first trend is the absolute increase in violence, the second is the absolute increase in population. That we're breeding faster than we're killing each other off certainly says something, but I don't think it says that violence has declined.

It is his book that he is promoting. What is your agenda?

It's never quite clear to me what agenda he is promoting. He frequently comes across as a kind of "stop whining children, you have it better than your grandparents did" which I just think is Stupid Discourse that breeds complacency about the world.
 
Wsj published his agenda therefore it's their''s too.
Don't be silly. What you say is certainly true of the editorial pages, but not of the remaining content. The agenda of the WSJ overall is to be profitable and include in their paper what interests their subscribers. Marketing 101.
My agenda is a healthy future for my progeny.
Feed them well, educate them, raise them in a clean environment, and help them find meaningful work that provides a decent income.
Mostly correct, but we should still act as if we can make a difference.
Why pretend to have control if you don't think we do? Sounds like a waste of time. Just spend your time on the item above.
Pinker may have certain types of intelligence but he believes his own hype too much. A little knowledge is a dangerous thing. Thinking current trends will continue forever is dumb.
You need to read the whole article.
Ok. But blanket stating everything is already getting better all the time why should we need to change, just get out of the way of progress
Again, read the article.
 
I did read it, he gives taken lip service to "yeah there are some problems, environment, etc" but it doesn't dissuade him from his dogma. His theory is wrong and his explinations as to current trends are wrong.

I read a whole book by Pinker, that's more than enuf for one lifetime.

I can see how he'd be popular with the older generation, they don't want to feel like they've f-ed up the world for the rest of us.
 
Are you saying the existence of the middle-class cancels that out. 6 of 7 semi-well off cancels out kids with flies in their eyes?

So because poverty still exists that means we aren't doing any better? You don't see the flaw in that logic? The argument isn't that absolutely every single person on Earth has an awesome life now, the argument is that, on average, humanity as a whole has a higher quality of life than humanity as a whole 100 years ago. This is an undeniable fact. It is also proven by the fact that some of those very same children who have flies in their eyes also have cellphones and internet access.

My agenda is a healthy future for my progeny.

So I assume you have sold off all your crypto currency and now advocate for the banning of them due to the negative impact crypto mining is having on the environment. Especially since 60% of all crypto mining takes place in China, and the computers that do the mining are connected to a power grid that gets most of its electricity from burning coal.

If not, then this statement just goes to show your raging hypocrisy. Practice what you preach Narz.
 
Lol, a kid with flies in his eyes but who had a cell is better than a kid with flies in his eyes without one. Can't argue with that.

The amount of bitcoins is fixed, therefore whether I own them or someone else does the same amount exist.

Just correcting you in case it was your intention to make some sort of coherent argument.
 
He frequently comes across as a kind of "stop whining children, you have it better than your grandparents did" which I just think is Stupid Discourse that breeds complacency about the world.
There's a healthy balance between complacency and whining.
The amount of bitcoins is fixed, therefore whether I own them or someone else does the same amount exist. Just correcting you in case it was your intention to make some sort of coherent argument.
... and that fixed amount will probably take another ~120 years to be mined entirely.
https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/10486/when-will-the-last-bitcoin-be-mined
God only knows how much electricity this will take.
Spoiler :
Key Network Statistics
Description Value
Bitcoin's current estimated annual electricity consumption* (TWh) 49
Annualized global mining revenues $7,225,206,933
Annualized estimated global mining costs $2,449,987,805
Country closest to Bitcoin in terms of electricity consumption Singapore
Estimated electricity used over the previous day (KWh) 134,245,907
Implied Watts per GH/s 0.235
Total Network Hashrate in PH/s (1,000,000 GH/s) 23,849
Electricity consumed per transaction (KWh) 650.00
Number of U.S. households that could be powered by Bitcoin 4,537,014
Number of U.S. households powered for 1 day by the electricity consumed for a single transaction 21.98
Bitcoin's electricity consumption as a percentage of the world's electricity consumption 0.22%
Annual carbon footprint (kt of CO2) 24,010
Carbon footprint per transaction (kg of CO2) 318.72

https://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption

In short... you're a smart guy, WTH are you smoking?
 
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