Training game emphasizing trading - Emperor

Roster check:

oopsy-poopsy - UP
bede - on deck
plarq
dl123654
peacemonger
trikos
jurimax - skipped
 
sorry guys, I need a skip too. Thought I might be safe but there isn't gonna be any time for a while.
 
Got it, I guess.
 
I received an email with a trade from Bede.

Polytheism from Spain for 345, a small premium (beaker cost 310), then Polytheism to Germany for Code of Laws, probably straight up or with a small cash kicker our way. (..)
I chose to pass as the two techs will only get cheaper and we have no one to sell them onto.

1: What do we want ?
There is Poly and Code of Laws on the market.
Code of Laws - Leads to Republic and allows the building of courtouses. This tech is a tech we want, as Republic is -most likely- the Government we'd want to be in. But we do not neccesarily want it now. The Republic is an expensive tech and the CoL-owners only had it for about 4 turns. They will not have reseached it yet.
Poly - Leads to Monarchy and allows the Temple of Artemis. Not what we want. This tech is only useful as trade-item.


2: Bede's trade.
Well there was no trade, but there is a possibility for a 2fer1. Buy Polytheism from Spain for 342, a small premium (beaker cost 310), then Polytheism to Germany for Code of Laws, probably straight up or with a small cash kicker our way.
Well, Germany has little money (12 gold) so at best we'd buy Poly + Col for 330 gold. At worst (if Germany wants Poly + cash for CoL) we'll pay 500 or even 600 for Poly+Col. And we can't make money by selling the newly acquired techs as the buyers have hardly any money.
The decision to not trade was made because if more civs get the techs, the purchase price drops. Combined with an analysis of "who knows who?" and who will/can buy/sell to who the risk of loosing this 2fer1 is small. And if we do miss this 2fer1 there isn't lost a lot; Not all civs know eachother and we can still be lucky and sell the techs we get in a future 2fer1 or purchase for good cash.



3: The Timing.
Was it the right moment to trade? Or better: Why wasn't it the right moment to trade ?
The CoL-owners have had CoL for 4 turns. There is a good chance some of them will research a new tech soon; allowing a possible 3fer1. Worst thing that can happen is that Germany (Sci civ) researches Poly themselves. I don't see that happening quickly. And if that does happen, we can still do a 2fer1; if another Civ researches 1 of the 2 techs, or a civ a new tech.


4: The trading partner.
The good partners were chosen; Spain and Greece both want the same amount of money for Poly (342 gold). Spain has a lower score than Greece.


Rik's conclusion
I usually take a 2fer1 if present, but this one isn't required yet. We do not need the techs for anything else than "just having them" and the trade-situation is more likely to improve than to worsen.
I would have waited as well.

Edit: sender=Bede
 
After posting I got another email.
Here is the situation at 670BC:

The Dutch know Construction but lack both Polytheism and Code of Laws. They know both Spain and Greece who have both, so I'm going to work the deal this way:

Polytheism from Spain for cash, then Polytheism to Germany for Code of Laws, then one or the other and some cash to Netherlands for Construction, then whatever is left to the Dutch for the cash I just paid him. Then peddle Construction to Spain and Greece for all their money....
1: What do we want ?
There is Poly and Code of Laws on the market. And the dutch have a Monopoly on Construction. Excellent! This is the 3fer1 we want !!

2: Bede's trade.
Polytheism from Spain for cash, then Polytheism to Germany for Code of Laws, then one or the other and some cash to Netherlands for Construction, then whatever is left to the Dutch for the cash I just paid him. Then peddle Construction to Spain and Greece for all their money....

If it all was so easy ...

I did the trade and I got this:
Poly from Spa for 342 gold.
CoL + 6 gold from Ger for Poly.
Const from Neth for CoL + Poly + 662 gold, or for CoL + Poly + Ivory + 542 gold. I did the non-Ivory trade as we only have 1 extra Ivory and sufficient funds.
Greece is willing to pay all their gold (596) for Const, Spain only 441 gold. Greece gives all their gold, so they are willing to pay even more, but since they know eachother they prices drop as soon as 1 gets it.

I usually sell to the civ that has more money than it offers, as the civ who offers all their money might not drop their offer below what they are willing to pay now.

So: Spain 441 gold, Then to Greece (price dropped) 441 gold.

Saldo = 3 techs for -116 gold.


3: The Timing.
Was it the right moment to trade? Perfect timing as this 3fer1 must not be wasted.(see my preious post)

4: The trading partner.
The good partners were chosen; Spain and Greece both want the same amount of money for Poly (342 gold). Spain has a lower score than Greece.

Or were they ??? -=> See alternative 2


Rik's conclusion
As examinator I have the luxury of being allowed to do a trade and reload to do alternatives.

Alternative 1
Poly from Spa for 342 gold.
CoL + 6 gold from Ger for Poly.
Const from Neth for CoL + Poly + 662 gold.
Const to Greece for 596 gold.
Const to Spain for 408 gold.


Saldo = 3 techs + 6 gold. Bede's saldo was 3 techs for -116 gold.

To be fair, the order of sale first to Spain and Greece is usually the best, only not in this case; Greece dropped their price too much to compensate for the additional money they would have paid.

But it can be better still:

Alternative 2
Const from Neth for 1187 gold.
Const to Greece for Poly + 596 gold.
Poly to Germ for CoL + 6 gold.
Const to Spain for 341 gold.
Poly to Neth for 255 gold.
CoL to Neth for 215 gold.


Saldo = 3 techs + 226 gold. Bede's saldo was 3 techs for -116 gold.

You see here demonstrated how beneficial a 3fer1 is and also immediately what a difference buying a monopoly tech and using that to obtain gold + techs from others is. I made 342 gold more than Bede and still got all 3 techs.

A good educational trade-round this was.
Edit: Sender=Bede
 
Rik, you are quick.

Here's how it played out:
First step was to pay some of our gold hoard to open embassies:

Diplomatic Report 875BC

Japan knows no one.
Spain knows Germany, Greece and Dutch.
Korea knows Greece.
Dutch are at war with Germany.
Russia knows no one.

So our brokering opportunities are with the Spanish Axis to/from Koreans, Russians and Japanese, and with the Germans to/from the Dutch as long as the war lasts.

Dutch are running 80% science, Germans 70%, Greeks 90%, Japanese 60%, Koreans 90%.

There is a trade opportunity:

Polytheism from Spain for 345, a small premium (beaker cost 310), then Polytheism to Germany for Code of Laws, probably straight up or with a small cash kicker our way. There isn't any place to go with our new knowledge, though so the decision is made to pass.

In 670BC another opportunity presents itself. The Dutch know Construction but lack both Polytheism and Code of Laws. They know both Spain and Greece who have both, so I'm going to work the deal this way:

Polythesm from Spain for cash, then Polytheism to Germany for Code of Laws, then one or the other and some cash to Netherlands for Construction.

Buy Polytheism from Spain for 345g. Then Polytheism to Germany for Code of Laws and 5g. Then buy Construction from William for Code of Laws and 1000g. Then Polytheism back to William for 250g. Then Construction to Greece for 596g. Then Construction to Spain for 400g.

Net cost for Polytheism, Code of Laws and Construction 94g.

In 590 I uncover an opportunity to trade for a luxury with Russia but hold off as one additional will not have that great an impact until we get to Currency and can build markets.

In 590 the Japanese finish the SoZ in Osaka so the shields at Theveste are dumped into the FP due in 7.

In 550BC Leptis grows to pop7 with happiness issues so I choose to trade Polytheism to Russia for Furs and can turn lux down.

Workers are running up the west spine bringing water to the dry towns and chopping forests in the east to get courthouses up. I founded Gades on the Inland Sea. Not the best spot but it brings the sugar into play and when its harbor is finished the citizens can go fishing, giving up the sugar to Leptis Magna. I also founded Malaca in the middle of the eastern spine.

There is a settler headed east and should plant on the river next to the iron.

Our town placement is real tight but we will make maximum use of the shoreline. Settler and worker farms are humming a treat, workers in 2 from Utica and settlers in 4 from Carthage.

Settlement possibilities:

West

Trikos01_550BCSettlerWest.jpg


East

Trikos01_550BCSettlerEast2.jpg


Now to compare my deals to Rik's:


Rik's:
Alternative 2
Const from Neth for 1187 gold.
Const to Greece for Poly + 596 gold.
Poly to Germ for CoL + 6 gold.
Const to Spain for 341 gold.
Poly to Neth for 255 gold.
CoL to Neth for 215 gold.


Rik's net=216g


Bede's:
Polytheism from Spain for 345g
Polytheism to Germany for Code of Laws and 5g
Construction from William for Code of Laws and 1000g
Polytheism back to William for 250g
Construction to Greece for 596g
Construction to Spain for 400g

Bede's net=-94g

As always Rik, nicely done. I think I just learned something: Use your CASH!
 
I overreacted to a work problem that I thought was gonna eat up my life for a while (somebody called me the day before we were coming back from vacation to quit) but I think I have everything undercontrol amazingly enough so if I could sneak in after plarq that would be great. If not, no biggy I can wait, but mostly I just wanted to let you know I wasn't jumping ship, I just didn't want to post a got it and then not be able to play.
On a game note, I never would've expected those two results. My first instinct is always to acquire techs to lower the cost of the monopoly, here CoL and poly for Cons, but to see the huge difference going the other way means I gotta remember that. So why in this situation did it work this way. Rik said usually the other way works better and it's how I would try it but what about this situation caused the change? Also, why was CoL worth 215g to Neth in rik's but only 187 to Neth in Bede's (lowering price from 1187 to even 1000? Anyway, good work both of you, nice to see all the work you guys put into explaining and describing all the possibilities.
 
@o-p,
The way it worked out in Rik's sequence is that by trading more cash to Willie there was more cash in Will's pocket to spend on the back deal for CoL. If I had done a better job of assessing relative values I might have seen that. Code of Laws at that point had a base cost of 236g and it was not unreasonable to expect Willie to pay close to base cost.

This is where CivAssist's Technology tab can really help. It shows base cost in beakers (1 beaker = 1 gold) and can be used in establishing relative values. If I had checked that tab before running the deal I might have seen the same thing Rik didi, but then again, maybe not.

The other important thing illustrated here is the value of careful assessment. Take the time to think through all the implications. I am guilty on more than one occasion of leaving out a factor (as well illustrated above).
 
Some extra notes on Bede's trades.
I am, from an educational pont of view, very happy that Bede posted the no-trade update for 875 BC. We would have made a profitable trade, but waiting proved more profitable. The team got a chance to see that.

I am, from an educational point of view, very happy that Bede did an non-optimal trade for Const, Poly and CoL. My first reaction when I saw the situation was to buy Const (which Bede didn't). He gave me the opportunity to point out that my hunch was correct and gave me a way to show you how to handle 3fer1's.

Bede is a bit sloppy with money. For instance: he paid 345 gold to Spain, where 342 would have sufficed. This seems small; but in close trades it can mean a lot.

The amount of money William received for Const has nothing to do with what he wants to pay for the later techs. The increase in revenue had to do with Const being a near monopoly (after we bought it) and we could use that near-monopoly tech twice to obtain Poly and CoL + the Spanish and Greek treasury.

I never use CivAssist. I don't know the beaker cost and I don't know what each civ values. Instead I just open the F4 screen and check what each civ offers for my techs or wants to pay for mine. In fact I think the CivAssist knowledge hinders people and distracts them from the purpose of trading. Bede is an experienced player but even he "messed up" a good 3fer1.
What I do is check (with CivReplay; a tool that shows what techs what civ has clearer than the F4-screen) what techs the civs have and lack and how much money (and later on resources) they have. Then I make a plan on how I would want to trade. I check if that is possible in the F4 screen (the first step at least) and then I take the most important step: I stop.
I rethink and contemplate (and check) alternatives. If for instance in my original plan I count on being able to pay gpt or resources (or obtain them), but the prelimenary results show me otherwise it might be needed to choose an alternative.
In this game this isn't the case (yet) as lump gold is always accepted by the AI. But if our gold-amount is lower or the prices rise we might need to pay gpt or with resources.
When I've finally picked the trade I prefer then I do the trade, rechecking after every step. Civs may hold invisible techs or adjust their prices, which influence the optimal trade. Don't be afraid to change mid-trade; just make sure you know what you want in each individual step as well as what you want as final result.

To answer O-P's question: "My first instinct is always to acquire techs to lower the cost of the monopoly, here CoL and poly for Cons, but to see the huge difference going the other way means I gotta remember that. So why in this situation did it work this way. Rik said usually the other way works better and it's how I would try it but what about this situation caused the change?"

If 2 civs would have had Const at the time and we'd have to buy as the 3rd player; the value of Const to Spain and Greece would have been lowered as a consequence, thus they would probably not have offered all their techs + money for it. The value of Construction in "Rik's Alternative 2" was that this expensive tech (for Spain and Greece) was used to obtain 2 non-expensive techs (as more civs had it then Const).

There is more to it, but I can't explain it in words. You've seen the benefit of buying of a near monopoly tech over the far from monopoly techs and using those techs to obtain the near monopoly tech.

In general:
For a 2fer1: Buy the most expensive tech from a civ with cash; use it to obtain the 2nd tech and then sell the tech to the first to get some money back. (If you buy the cheapest tech, you still have to pay extra when you use it to obtain the expensive tech.)
For a 3fer1: Buy a (near) monopoly tech with cash, use it to get the other 2 techs and use those 2 techs to get some money back.
For a 4fer1: Go for the tech closest to monopoly, use it to get the next closest monopoly tech and use them to obtain the others. Then resell for money back and even profit.

A 2fer1 usually costs some money, a 3fer1 is about break-even and a 4+fer1 usually is (big) profit.
Instead of cash you can use additional maps, resources and alliances (RoP, etc) as well, if the game is like that.
Of course; and that is what makes trading fun; general rules do not always apply... :crazyeye:
 
Thanks rik. That means I have been going about it a little backwards. I usually try to buy the cheaper tech first (as long as the trade will give that civ with enough money for when I sell them the more expensive tech back) to lower the price of the higher cost tech. I just assumed that the computer attached a dollar amount on a tech and whether it was in a trade for another tech or just gold straight up that amount would stay even, but it doesn't.
 
IHT,550BC:Move warrior from Leptis Minor to Magna,lower lux to 10%
IBT:Utica:Worker->Horse,Oea Sword->Horse,Russians build MoM,Spanish
cascades to ToA and GW.
T1,530BC:Get 65g from Japan for 6gpt,boot him and began the WAR,he's
sneaking near my city anyway.Lose an archer and kill Elite Warrior.No
new tech available.
IBT:Leptis Magna Horse->Temple,Greek starts Great Wall.
T2:510BC:Eastern Horse flee from Japanese troops.
T3:Nothing
T4:Isabella has Monarchy.
T5:Alexander follows her.Both cost 850g.
IBT:FP in Theveste,Japan start GW.
T6:Nothing.
IBT:Spain and Dutch allied against Germany,Japan killed my Elite Archer.
T7:Fight Japanese troops,kill 1 archer and 1 warrior.
T8:Alliance vs German counts as 590g to Isabella,in term of Monarchy discounts,same alliance worth 455g to William,striaight coins.
IBT:Damn,Japanese AC kill Horse near Yokohama.
T9:Nothing
IBT:Japan start ToA.So few people knows Japan,why he's developing quite well I wonder.
T10:Gathering troops towards west front.

Summary:Tech:All equal,Alexander and Isabella up Monarchy,Otto lacks Construction,Korea far behind.Alliance can gain us Monarchy and 300g from Isabella and William.
War:Japan want to talk,next one can decide peace or war.I have small bunch of units in the east.But Japanese have 2 archers,1 warrior and 1 AC on the west side.
Domestic:
Calaris have Harbor->Temple to become a fishing village.
Theveste starts Aquaduct,a chop will help.
Carthage will pull out troops.
Utica is doing 11spt,will let Carthage use the Ivory Forest.
New City Tingis and Calaris founded on southern Carthage and east front.
Notice the lux can be down to 0% if hire MP in core.
 
plarq said:
T1,530BC:Get 65g from Japan for 6gpt,boot him and began the WAR,he's
sneaking near my city anyway.Lose an archer and kill Elite Warrior.No
new tech available.

....IBT Damn,Japanese AC kill Horse near Yokohama.

You are kidding, right? War with Japan (who has SoZ) for 65g? (Checks save)

No, you're not kidding.

:dubious:

:thumbdown

:o :cringe: :aargh: :gripe:

:shakehead

Let me try an' 'splain it to you. Shall we reason together?

Here's my view:

Did Japan hold anything we needed?

They have little money, no techs, their cities are far away, most of their land is poor, and they lack Ancient Age resources (Iron and Horses).

In the most likely scenario three things can happen: all are bad.

1) We lose a city to the Japanese who now have a foothold in the west that is not jungle and mountain.

2) We fight a defensive war as we don't have the troops to take the offensive so our production becomes mostly troops and our development is hampered.

3) And the very worst thing; to keep Japan from overrunning us we build NuMercs and trigger a despotic Golden Age.

Are any of those things worth 65g?

On other matters:

The city builds need a close look.

For example, Hippo is building a temple and doesn't need it. It has fields and waters sufficient to its population. Saldae is building a courthouse, not needed, swiitch both to settlers.

Both Carthage and Utica are out of phase for their purposes: building workers and settlers.

The FP location is my fault. Theveste lacks the potential to be a FP city but it was the only reasonable thing I could think of to use the shields for. Accordingly, don't chop the forest there for an acqueduct. The town needs the shields and the acqueduct. It has a food bonus in the wheat.

We still need to claim the choke in the east which we would have been close to doing....:

Trikos01_550BCSettlerWest.jpg


@plarq, First, next time you feel the need for warfare, take a deep breath and consult the team. Second, read the logs carefully before you play. We are close to losing a town site that will lock Japan in the mountains and jungles forever. The only reason we haven't and may not is becasue Yokohama ain't going to grow and the Japanese towns are a long ways off.
 
OK first, I'm not sure whose next up, but can I butt in for my skipped turn? It's not a big deal, I just want to make sure I piss anyone off if I do. Second, what do we do know? I'll look at the save when I get home so I'm not sure what the situation is really like. Anyway, securing the the eastern choke is key although now getting proper defense will be essential as well. How did carthage and utica get out of sync again? That happened to carthage last time and can only be a result of inattention. Anyway, Plarq this is a training game and a game that we all play together. That means that you have to read the posts so that you play along with everyone's prestated goals. If you think those goals are wrong or need a better explanation of those goals then please speak up and we'll discuss (that's the whole purpose of this game), but don't wait your turn and then do whatever you feel like. Any big decisions that aren't agreed upon must be veted by the team.
So the big question is if we're totally unprepared for war with japan then can we get out of it? Also, if we just took gold for a gpt and then began war, won't this do serious damage to our reputation? Isn't that gonna really hurt our trading? I think regardless of who plays next everyone in this game needs to take a long look at the save and give observations or ideas for how to proceed. I'll post again after I've checked out the save.
 
O yeah, I fear we can kiss our rep goodbye.
I haven't loaded up the save yet, but plarq mentioned Japan didn't have any contacts. So one option would be to kill of Japan to save our rep.
But is this doable? They do have ToZ.

I'll look at the save later. Just my 0.02 anyway.

Greetz Jurimax
 
plarq said:
T1,530BC:Get 65g from Japan for 6gpt,boot him and began the WAR

I'm not absolutely clear from this if we declared, or if we asked Japan to leave or declare, after doing a gold for gpt deal for insurance, and they declared. I'm at work and can't look at the saves.
 
The way I take it is:
We took a 65 gold loan and paid 6 gpt for it.
We demanded Japan to leave our lands and Japan declared.

If this is the case I do not think we got a reputation hit. We would certainly have received a rep-hit if we declared war.

But then again; the trade-examinator should shut up and let the trainers do their work ....
 
boot him and began the WAR

Now whether this means that by asking him to leave Japan declared or whether we asked them to leave and then started the war makes a huge difference. Based on our military strength and the difficulty level and the fact that Japan is militaristic I don't think we have a hope of defeating them, at least before they were to make contacts to let everyone know what cheaters we are if we started the war.

Japan want to talk,next one can decide peace or war

Going back I saw this. That probably means they started the war. I'd be just as happy if we could get a quick peace. But does this mean they came to us and asked for peace already? If so what did Plarq do? did he decline peace, or decline to speak to them or what? Let us know Plarq, the little things can make all the difference.
 
I've checked the save and Toku's only contact, Russia, will still let us pay gpt for stuff, so the trading rep is okay.

As I read the log, plarq made the loan deal (~100% interest would have been paid if Toku had left as asked, BTW), demanded that the Japanese leave or declare and they pulled the trigger, not us. Nonetheless, that qualifies as a highly risky move that would have cost us 120g if Toku had not bit and left us vulnerable to Japanese settlement, or war, up there for the twenty turns till the deal ran out

So, our way out of this is, get a peace treaty with Japan ASAP, block the choke with whatever forces we have, and settle that hill soonest.

A suggestion to the next player, sell the barracks in both Utica and Carthage so we are not tempted to use them for military builds. They are too far from any front anyway to be of much use as troop training towns 'till much later.
 
Bede said:
A suggestion to the next player, sell the barracks in both Utica and Carthage so we are not tempted to use them for military builds. They are too far from any front anyway to be of much use as troop training towns 'till much later.

Agree they are unnecessary at least until we reach a point where we can turn off the factories. Beyond dedicated cities, I am not good at figuring out what to build where. Wrt military, how important is it to build vet vs regular, and where/how many barracks are needed tend to bog me down. I probably over-rely on upgrades and therefore tend to overbuild rax because it is a pain to organize and move troops around for the upgrade.

@team, at this early stage, what should our military composition look like and where should we be producing units? (presuming a quick peace with Toka, not a protracted war)
 
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