Saldo: Phil for (not mentioned by Trikos) -40 gold (?)trikos said:Phil:
1) Can we afford it? Yes
2) Do we need it? Not right now (not an interesting wonder and nobody can research republic).
3) Can it be traded off profitably? Yes. We pay 194g. We can sell for 102+50+24+22+19=215>194. I choose to buy Phil from Spain. It sold the tech cheaply to some of the opponents, but got all their money. That might have been a mistake (?).
1: What do we want ?
There is Poly and Philosophy on the market. Do we want/need them Not for their use; Philo has nearly no benefits and Poly the same. So we want them only for their trade value. And to see if there are techs beyond the visible techs. But that is unlikely. Only Greece has had Poly for some time. The tech beyond that is the uninterresting monarchy.
2: Trikos' trade.
Did Trikos do a perfect trade ? Well; not really.
He bought only Phil and sold it for extra cash. If an AI pays all their gold it is very likely he would pay more if he had more. And more importantly; Trikos missed a 2fer1. Greece had Poly, but not Phil and The Netherlands had Phil, but no Poly. As Trikos showed us in the price Spain asks for it Poly is more expensive than Phil. But buying Poly from Greece and then trading it to The Netherlands (the usual smart thing to do) has nearly no revenue though, as Neth only has 3 gold. If Phil is bought from the Neth and then used to buy Poly from Greece and then Poly sold to Neth to get out money back, we get a nice 2fer1. It's not good that Trikos missed this 2fer1.
Alternative 1:
Greece: Poly <-> 342
Nether: Phil + 3 <-> Poly
Greece: 156 <-> Phil
Saldo: Poly + Phil for -183
Alternative 2:
Nether: Phil <-> 194
Greece: Poly <-> Phil + 168
Nether: 197 <-> Poly
Saldo: Poly + Phil for -165
3: The Timing.
Was it the right moment to trade? Phil just entered the market and if we'd let it be it could have been a missed 2fer1. That Trikos chose to just buy and not do the 2fer1 doesn't change the fact that the timing was correct. If you use Bede's "3 rules" just to determine the timing, you would have been correct in the trade as well and not only in timing.
4: The trading partner.
There was a 2fer1 as described above. Although Spain also had both techs it wasn't wise to buy from them. Sure, they were lowest in score (of the tech holders) but if you buy Poly from Spain and use it to obtain Phil, you can't get your money back as Spain already has the tech. So Spain was the wrong choise his time. Correct would have been:
Nether: Phil <-> 194
Greece: Poly <-> Phil + 168
Nether: 197 <-> Poly
Saldo: Poly + Phil for 165
Rik's conclusion
I'm sorry; Not a very good display. Bede's "3 rules" were used incorrectly. It did help you to choose the right moment, but blinded you from what is even more important; 2fer1's. Instead of giving us tech equality we are still behind in techs. In 730 BC we are still (at least) 2 techs down on the leaders. I did Rik's alternative and continued the game.
In 825 BC Greece and Spain still have CoL up on us, but all other civs are at least Phil + Poly behind. If Rik's Alternative was chosen we'd be Only 1 tech behind with lots of trade possibilities left. Just Imagine Japan or Neth or Germany being the first and only one with Construction or Currency or Greece or Spain with Monarchy. Immediate 2fer1 or 3fer1.
In all: You've missed a 2fer1 and that is something you will need to learn to spot. 2fer1's are cheaper than just buying a tech. Buying a tech is not as powerful as a 2fer1 and should be only considered if a 2fer1 isn't possible.