Trouble with AI buyouts against you? Some tips

Krupo

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One thing that sucks about the game is that there are no advisors to remind you that, "hey, it looks like Jim Hill might be ready to buy you out". Because, after all, a little notice is all we really want!

The thing that sucks even more is realizing that *YOU* could've bought out said competitor, if you had taken the following steps.

1.a. As soon as all your stocks are bought up (especially if they've invested in you!), pause the game. Go to the competition screen, check how much money they have.

1.b. If you each own 50% of the railroad, and it would cost $15 million to buy *yourself* out, assume the AI will also have to spend $15m (if the share split is different the cost will of course be a bit different - you can 'eyeball' the cost for the AI to buy you out, or do it more precisely by calculating it).

1.c. I'll assume you eyeball it like me, you compare the cost of your company to the AI's cash reserves - are they close? If not, look at their annual profits - roughly how many years will it take them to hit the $15m? If they're earning $0.5m a year and have $10m, you have, in theory, 10 years before they can buy you out - less if they earn more money, more if your stock price continues to rise faster than they earn money.

2.a. How much money do you have? How much money will it cost to buy them out?

Let's say you have $5 million in cash, and all the shares of your competitor are owned. To keep things simple, let's say they will cost $14m to buy them out.

Are you going to do the same thing you did in step 1.c.? Yes, but not yet.

You're probably reading this b/c you got bought out - so you don't have years to wait.

2.b. Instead, look at how many stocks you own. We assumed you won 50% of your own company. Let's assume you get an average of $1m for each 10% block you sell.

2.c. If you use your $5m cash, and the $5m your shares are worth (sell them following advice in 2.d.), you only need $4m more. If you own shares in a third or fourth competitor, sell those to bridge the $4m gap.

2.d. Sell all stock SLOWLY. A little quirk in the AI, I've found, is that it won't buy stock as fast as it can. It'll pause. That means it's (usually) okay to sell off a 10% stake in your company - they (Usually!!) won't buy 10%+buy you out in one 'swoop'. Each time the AI buys up the stock you sold, sell ANOTHER 10%.

If you sell two 10% blocks right away, you lose money: the less shares "available" for purchase, the more they're worth. So wait for the AI to jack up the price of your stock for you, THEN sell.

This trick has meant the difference between victory and bitter, bitter defeat more than once!

2.e. If you're a little short (less than a million), 1. try this again and share your own shares more slowly to gain more, 2. do all you can to maximize your income - micromanage train loads to scoop up all available loads, sell off poor track lines.

3. If you have an older saved game and found the AI running away with the game, ask this: how many companies have train lines into "YOUR" cities? How many train lines have you taken into competitor's cities'?

To win, you need to own more cities of your own (secure profit fortresses), and you need to deprive the AI of every last cargo load you can steal for yourself.

I was just playing a Tycoon game where the AI *completely* neglected a couple of cities' mail/passenger needs. Windfall profits for me! ;)


Remember, assuming you have auto-saves enabled, you can always reload them and try the 'last minute' share tip.

Of course - remember that this will only work if you were in tight contention - if you were short by many millions of dollars, you'll have to declare a loss and be more agressive next time, but you were already doing, eh?

Hope this helps!
 
Interesting that the AI won't swoop in and take advantage of you selling off a block of your stock. If ever playing this game multiplayer, I suspect human opponents wouldn't be so friendly.

If I'm calc'ing this right, every time you sell a block of shares, the cost to buy you out drops. In the above example, say 5 blocks of shares worth $15mil. I make the shares to be about a $1.5mil each market value (2x cost then is $3mil, and 5x$3mil is $15mil). So, to buy that share from you in a buyout costs $3mil. To buy that share on the open market after you sell it costs $1.5mil. So the total cost to buy you out just dropped by $1.5mil from $15mil to $13.5mil.

I think a human player would have to pause between buying that last share from the open market and executing the buy-out. I think the one transaction per "turn" rule would cause that. But those are not very long pauses in the games I've seen so far.

I'm not saying this isn't a good idea. If you are in this spot, it seems like its a case of strike first or be knocked out. IE, if you do nothing, then eventually you get bought out. So if you can't cash in your shares and try to strike first, then its pretty much just wait to die. But it looks like there might be some vulnerabilities to consider if you try this against a human player, or if some future patch improved the AI a bit in this area.

I guess the other thing is that if you try this against a player who doesn't own your stock, you could be very vulnerable. If the target owns your stock, the good news is that you get their possessions when you buy them out, so your number of blocks in your own company will jump back up when you buy them. So hopefully you are an expensive buy-out target when this is done. But if you tried this on a player who didn't own your stock, then you could be left with a 3rd opponent buying up your shares as you sell them, and leaving them with a very cheap buyout opportunity right after you succeed with your triumphant strike on your opponent.
 
I'm not saying this isn't a good idea. If you are in this spot, it seems like its a case of strike first or be knocked out. IE, if you do nothing, then eventually you get bought out. So if you can't cash in your shares and try to strike first, then its pretty much just wait to die. But it looks like there might be some vulnerabilities to consider if you try this against a human player, or if some future patch improved the AI a bit in this area.

I, however, believe this strategy is absolutely INSANE against human players, but I believe it's very unlikely that the AI will be patched to counter this. I'd be shocked and amused if it was, that's for sure!

And yeah; this strategy is rather specialized: works best in "tit-for-tat" fights; 3rd parties can ruin your day.
 
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