Personally I'm not willing to risk our settler even at those good odds. The Winery can wait imo. I'll either play tonight after work (if we have a consensus), or first thing in the morning.
Turn 70 The Winery Predicament
- Thread starter Methos
- Start date
Yeah, I too think the gain is so small in comparison to the loss that even 9% chance is too high.
KingMorgan
Deity
Chariot will arrive before the 2nd barb attacks?
Hold the settler back 1 square then found the city with both units, defend against 2nd barb.
Hold the settler back 1 square then found the city with both units, defend against 2nd barb.
I'm still not convinced it's 9% - one thing I am certain of is that we will not heal any more before the barb attacks... (Civ4 heals at start of turn, always, for some crazy reason). In other words if he's at 65 right now he'll be at that when the barb attacks... won't be 85 until our next turn (if there was no barb) But it seems we decided to wait and be safe anyway, that's good.
Diamondeye
So Happy I Could Die
I agree that we can't risk it. Damn barbie luck we have, huh? 
Earthling is right of course, this is not simultaneous pitboss so our units won't heal until the start of our turn. That lowers the odds quite significantly for both scenarios, making waiting even more important.
