We need to find out if we have any copper in case we find neighbours when we land on the other island. We also need slavery if we are planning to whip that worker after the 2 workboats. Doing pottery first will delay the whip because the 2 workboats will finish before BW.
Now regarding skipping AH. The bonus for writing that we will miss if we skip AH comes down to 36 beakers. A library at size 6 (2 fish, 2 gold, 2 spec) will increase research by 8 beakers. So the question is, if we skip AH will we get the library up 5 turns earlier than if we research AH?
Thats terrible simple math but I know some of you here will be able to figure it out so I thought I'd ask.
Btw, If we run into a neighbour before getting AH (if we skip it) and if they have AH we receive another little bonus so that might even things out again.
However all of this is irrelevant if we don't have copper because we will need to see if we have horses.
If we avoid AH we save X turns but loose 36 beakers in free science because we'll research writing without an aditional pre-req. If we avoid AH we can produce our library X turns earlier, thus gaining X turns of +25% research. We will also be able to start using a scientist X turns earlier, meaning our great scientist will arrive X turns earlier as well, and will found the Academy X turns earlier, giving us X turns of +50% research.
X is equal to how long it would take us to research AH before writing minus however many extra turns we need to research writing without those additional 36 beakers.
The capital will produce 29 base beakers at size 6 if it is not running scientists, but will produce 35 if it runs two scientists. I will assume that we will run two scientists for the 17 turns necessary to prouduce our great scientist and will then return to running no scientists.
At 29 beakers per turn it will take about 5 turns to finish AH, and about 6 turns to finish writing without the additional pre-req. So X should be 3 or 4 depending on beaker overflow.
So with X=3, the worst case scenario, avoiding AH will grant us 3 turns of +25% on 29 beakers and 3 turns of +50% on 29 beakers, or 65.25 beakers. This is greater than the 36 beakers we would loose by not taking advantage of writing's pre-req, so I think we should skip AH. Do you guys agree with this analysis?
As a side note, I agree that we should trust the turnplayer to move the warrior in an inteligent manner, without having to debate each move individually. Explore the coast fully, and do it as quickly as possible.