Was WWII Inevitable?

[RickFGS]

Right, that´s why he used half a million men working in shifts of 20 hours to build the "Siegfried Line", Hitler never thought France and England would declare war on him when he invaded Poland, lol, common, Hitler never did/followed a single thing he signed his name on, in fact after Checoslovakia, none trusted Hitler anymore, he was only buying time, the whole Blitzkrieg tactic was approved because he saw the potencial for "speed war" in it, before blitzkrieg he was presented with a dozen diferent plans that he rejected, Guderian only came to show him the new plans after all the existant ones were dismissed, not because it was innovative, but because he could pin the allies in one place while he was finishing off the other front, and for that, he needed above all, speed.

You can read from records that after seeing Blitzkrieg in a training session he stated "This is it! This is what i want! And this is what i will have!", clearly he saw speed of execution possible on one front, and a swift war, while he pinned down an allied invasion against the Siegfried Line in the other.

 

[Terxpahseyton]

Rick, I would like you to take a look at this Graph and to tell me where you think you belong.

In all seriousness, it is good if you have something to contribute. It is bad if you do it while being on an ego trip of some sort. The "Siegfried Linie" doesn't rule out that Hitler counted on France and the UK staying neutral and also believed in it. It only rules out that he thought it to be impossible.

 

[LightSpectra]

I'm clearly missing something here because every source I've ever read has considered tomatoes to botanically be fruit.

 

[shortguy]

Vegetable is a culinary term, not a botanical one. So it's correct that tomatoes are botanically fruits, but the statement betrays significant conceptual confusion anyway.

 

[Masada]

On August 25th, 1939, Hitler received the French Ambassador in Berlin at 5:30pm to explain him about the situation in Poland. I have a book with the verbatim of this conversation, as it's been sent to the French Ministry of Foreign affairs the same day at 10:30pm.

From this text, I can conclude that Hitler actually did strong diplomatic efforts to avoid war with Britain and France. He called for an agreement similar to Munich's which was immediately refused by London and Paris. As the French Ambassador confirmed that an attack over Poland would immediately lead to a declaration of war by Britain and France, Hitler even added that in such circumstances, Germany wouldn't fire the first bullet.

From the document, we can really believe that Hitler was deeply convinced France and Britain would never declare war on Germany as a support of Poland. It's actually rather unbelievable to read how sure he was about it, constantly minimizing the multiple alerts sent by the French ambassador.

Yeah, no. The Nazis had been sabre rattling about Danzig for months before the war. Which might have been justifiable in the context of the aggressive irredentist foreign policies that the Nazis had been running until that time. But just to make sure that modest lol demand wasn't met, thus frustrating war, the Nazis demanded the whole of the Polish Corridor on 29 August 1939, something no government would ever have bowed to. The Nazis knew this and moreover knew that the French were bound to aid the Poles per the terms of the Franco-Polish Alliance of 19-freaking-21.

But to make this line of argument even more farcical the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact was signed on 23 August 1939, the day before these negotiations, the secret protocols of which held that Poland was to be partitioned between Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia. So even had the French backed down and counselled that the Poles give up their effective independence it wouldn't have mattered because the Nazis and Soviets still would have invaded them!

Also, what happened to the first Munich Pact? Hint: it didn't last. So we might suppose that had France allowed the Nazi's to devour Poland, it almost certainly wouldn't have stopped them. Much as pandering to Napoleon ever stopped him.

 

[Marla_Singer]

OK people let me clarify this, I was only sharing with you my reading of a historical document. I probably badly expressed myself, but my point was certainly not that Hitler didn't actively triggered war!

Hitler of course made everything to lead Europe to war. The thing however is that, as of August 1939, he was convinced France and the UK had no guts and were ready to accept all compromise in order to avoid war. The idea is that, as they did nothing for Austria, Czechoslovakia, Ethiopia or Manchuria, there was no reason they would do anything about Poland.

But that doesn't mean France and the UK were wrong to declare war on September 1st 1939. As a matter of fact, it was probably already too late then, and even worse, very badly prepared.

 

[Masada]

Hitler of course made everything to lead Europe to war. The thing however is that, as of August 1939, he was convinced France and the UK had no guts and were ready to accept all compromise in order to avoid war. The idea is that, as they did nothing for Austria, Czechoslovakia, Ethiopia or Manchuria, there was no reason they would do anything about Poland.

That might have been the case. It's still insane to think that the French would have made a blood sacrifice of a million Poles and an allied nation, knowing that the Poles would fight because of the Polish Corridor no matter what, just to keep the Germans pacific for a little while longer. It also demonstrates just how insane Hitler was thinking that might somehow work.

 

[Leoreth]

The thing is, though, if the Allieds had decided to call his bluff earlier, say over Czechoslovakia, we'd also say it was insane for Hitler to try that! But in reality it worked. Hitler's foreign policy was a huge gamble from the beginning, and the Allied leadership has presented itself as utterly spineless. So it wasn't actually that risky, at least not more risky than everything before that.

 

[Masada]

Nah, we wouldn't. The Poles weren't going to back down and had made that clear. Fair point to them: the Germans were asking nothing less than the effective end of Polish independence. This was driven home when the Germans turned around and added the Polish Corridor to their list of demands. The French didn't have the pull to ask them to make that sacrifice and had no intentions of doing so to begin with. Throwing the Poles under the Nazi bus was asking far to much: the Czechs were one thing, the Poles another and the Poles, to their credit, realised that. Hence their refusal to give an inch in the face of Nazi sabre rattling. Shame the Soviets intervened and the Western Allies didn't grind the Germans to dust to begin with.

 

[Marla_Singer]

Throwing the Poles under the Nazi bus was asking far to much: the Czechs were one thing, the Poles another and the Poles, to their credit, realised that.

If it would only be about me, the Czechs were already far too much.

The thing is, though, if the Allieds had decided to call his bluff earlier, say over Czechoslovakia, we'd also say it was insane for Hitler to try that! But in reality it worked. Hitler's foreign policy was a huge gamble from the beginning, and the Allied leadership has presented itself as utterly spineless. So it wasn't actually that risky, at least not more risky than everything before that.

I totally agree about Hitler's foreign policy being a huge gamble.

Even when Hitler remilitarized the Rhineland in early 1936, the risk was already huge. At the time, the German military was still in a very poor shape compared to France's and Britain's.

It's very surprizing to see a foreign policy being driven in such a way so late in History, considering administration and military of the time, and despite the trauma of ww1.

 

[Lord Baal]

So, 1934 Germany was in relation to 1934 Italy considerably weaker than 1940 Greece in relation to 1940 Italy?

Yes, actually. While Hitler had unilaterally abrogated the Versailles Treaty (which limited the German army to 100,000 personel, along with restrictions on the weaponry and vehicles they could use, including the air force) the previous year, the German military had not yet rearmed or increased its size to the point where it could pose a legitimate threat to Italy, which was one of the most powerful states in the world. It couldn't have beaten Austria without the assistance of the Austrian Nazi Party, which is why they relied on them pulling off a coup, instead of simply annexing Austria as they did in 1938. In the early-1930s, even small countries like Lithuania were pushing Germany around.

Don't forget that, in addition to its quantitative and qualitative advantages over Germany in 1934, the morale problems which plagued Italy during WWII wouldn't affect it when it was actually fighting to defend an ally from a foreign invasion. Also, the terrain in Austria, while not good, is better suited to an invasion from Italy than Greece's terrain is to an invasion from Albania. While Italy would by no means march to Berlin, they wouldn't need to do so. Simply kicking the Germans out of Austria would fulfil their goals, and likely lead to Hitler's arrest (and execution) by the wehrmacht, which would doubtless take over the country at this point.

I am not sure what to say other than "hugh?" I mean I am generally inclined to trust you on your expertise, but still, hugh?

Are you enquiring about the Polish refusal to allow Soviet troops to enter their territory to fight the Germans? Because it's been well-documented that the USSR was fully-prepared to fight off a German invasion of Poland even without the assistance of the Western Allies, if only the Poles would allow them free passage. Stalin made the same offer to the Czechs before the Munich Pact. Neither nation would allow Russian troops on their soil, though they certainly had their reasons.

How important was the Treaty of Locarno? Kissinger spent about a chapter and a half on it which indicates that (to him at least) it was important.

I've read some scenarios that showed Germany would've been barely able to handle Czechoslovakia if it would've come to war over the Sudetenland issue in 1938.

It would have taken Germany about four-to-six weeks to defeat Czechoslovakia in 1938. In that time it would have been completely defenceless against a French attack across the Rhine, which was far more likely in 1938 than 1939. The French grew more hesitant to engage Germany as time went by, though I've never found a satisfactory reason as to why the government's belligerence decreased as Germany's increased.

In addition to gaining an extra year in which to prepare for war, the Munich Pact also gave Germany access to Czechoslovakia's many mines and munitions factories, almost all of which were located in the Sudetenland. To make matters worse, when Bohemia and Moravia fell almost without a fight in March 1939, Germany commandeered as much Czech military equipment as they could. There was very little fighting and the Czech army followed their government's order to surrender rather than destroy their equipment before turning it over. Those who deserted with their equipment only ended up in Slovakia, which was a German puppet-state, so that equpiment all became de-facto German anyway.

Also, Germany was nearly broke before the annexation of Austria (as Nazi Germany was almost constantly broke) and only Austria's rather large currency reserves helped them to sustain their budget any longer.

Not to mention Austria's iron ore, which fueled German armament production.

@LordBaal: That was the kind of answer I was looking for and since other posters seem to testify to your expertise, I will trust the accuracy of your response. I actually find it quite heartening to know that war was not inevitable and that it was just the result of a tragic series of events.

Thank you. Never forget, nothing in history - excepting natural disasters, of course - is inevitable. If Franz Ferdinand doesn't stupidly decide he wants a sandwich in Sarajevo, he doesn't get shot and WWI doesn't happen. If Hitler dies during WWI instead of merely being wounded, then there's no WWII. If JFK doesn't get shot in Dallas, then the moon landings may well have been a joint US-Soviet mission. History is contingent, not inevitable.

The USSR was pretty much shut out of European diplomacy for most of the interwar years. I don't recall how they were brought into the League of Nations, but it wasn't for very long.

I'm pretty sure they joined in 1934 - partly in response to Hitler's rise in Germany, actually - but didn't have much to do with the League.

Wait, wasn't the whole thing staged?

Not on the part of the defending troops. They were completely unaware that they were being attacked by Germans wearing Polish uniforms, who were shooting blanks. It wasn't the same as the "artillery attacks" Stalin used as casus belli against Finland, which were entirely staged - and didn't hit any troops.

From the document, we can really believe that Hitler was deeply convinced France and Britain would never declare war on Germany as a support of Poland. It's actually rather unbelievable to read how sure he was about it, constantly minimizing the multiple alerts sent by the French ambassador.

Hitler was genuinely surprised that Britain joined the alliance against him, but fully expected France to declare war. In fact, he was so put off by Britain's unexpected last-minute alliance with Poland that he delayed attacking it by two days.

the whole Blitzkrieg tactic was approved because he saw the potencial for "speed war" in it, before blitzkrieg he was presented with a dozen diferent plans that he rejected, Guderian only came to show him the new plans after all the existant ones were dismissed, not because it was innovative, but because he could pin the allies in one place while he was finishing off the other front, and for that, he needed above all, speed.

Hitler had already agreed to an invasion of France using the original plan presented to him, only to change it a few weeks out when Manstein came to him with the plan. Hitler was notoriously fickle when it came to his orders to the military. Sometimes he'd change plans at the last minute, he'd remove generals from command only to bring them back a short time later (Guderian was removed from his command on the Russian front, only to be promoted to Chief of Staff a short time later, despite having no experience as a staff officer)

You can read from records that after seeing Blitzkrieg in a training session he stated "This is it! This is what i want! And this is what i will have!", clearly he saw speed of execution possible on one front, and a swift war, while he pinned down an allied invasion against the Siegfried Line in the other.

The so-called blitzkrieg (Guderian named it after WWII) tactic of tactical bombing followed closely by fast-moving armoured assaults did not exist in any form until the Manstein Plan was formulated. This was after the invasion of Poland. What the Siegfried line has to do with the Battle for France I don't know.

Rick, I would like you to take a look at this Graph and to tell me where you think you belong.

That graph is hilarious.

 

[Leoreth]

In the early-1930s, even small countries like Lithuania were pushing Germany around.

That sounds interesting, what are you referring to?

 

[RickFGS]

@SiLL - The only stupid thing here is your lack of brain cells, i have pity on those who live and share air space around you, please do me a favour and warn others that your are about to say something you think is "clever", that way people can prepare their brains for your genious.

Plus, you should learn that when discussing a theme, calling someone else that clearly doesn´t think the same way you do on subjects, stupid, not only reveals your own limitations on the matter, but also gives us a perfect understanding of how your spirit works, do me a favour and make a trip of humility and knowledge to somewhere.

 

[Agent327]

trying to pass as oficial that Hitler believed that France and England would not declare war on him after he invaded Poland is not stupidity, it´s completly idiocracy and mediocraty

Actually, it is official. You can check the relevant pages in part II of Ian Kershaw´s Hitler-biography: 1936-1945 Nemesis.

 

[Terxpahseyton]

@Lord Baal and Justo and Leoreth
Thanks for the replies. I was aware of the relative German weakness, but probably underestimated its extend and likewise the strength of Italy.
The SU offering its active military assistance against Germany prior to WWII was just a complete black spot of mine and I needed further explanation to put that into context (and find it believable). So, thanks again

@Rick
I understand that what I posted was hurtful, but to make one thing clear, I didn't post it because you hold a different opinion. That in deed wouldn't shed a good light on myself (though I think it can be justified to ridicule an opinion in order to make someone aware of how spurious it really is - but that doesn't apply here). I did so because of the way you deal with other opinions and represent yours, which is quit inflated, to use a diplomatic word.

 

[Lord Baal]

That sounds interesting, what are you referring to?

Lithuania coerced the Memel Territory, a strip of land that had been fought over by Prussia and Lithuania centuries earlier, out of Germany some time in the early 1920s. Germany had a standing protest over this action until after the invasion of Poland, when it forced Lithuania to give the Territory back. This was part of the Secret Protocols in the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. In the early-30s Lithuania was still refusing to even entertain the idea of arbitration regarding the border.

@Lord Baal and Justo and Leoreth
Thanks for the replies. I was aware of the relative German weakness, but probably underestimated its extend and likewise the strength of Italy.
The SU offering its active military assistance against Germany prior to WWII was just a complete black spot of mine and I needed further explanation to put that into context (and find it believable). So, thanks again

You can find out more about the Soviet offers here, here and here. Unfortunately, Wiki doesn't have a page devoted solely to the Tripartite talks.

It just occurred to me that I never actually answered Ajidica's question about Locarno earlier. The short answer is that it wasn't very important at all, at least not to Germany. It was mostly important for its effect in Poland, where it was roundly denounced, even causing a rift in Franco-Polish relations. It made Poland more belligerent and was a contributing cause to the coup shortly thereafter. Having a belligerent Poland to the east made German politics more volatile, but probably not enough to matter.

 

[Domen]

Germany had a standing protest over this action until after the invasion of Poland, when it forced Lithuania to give the Territory back.

Wasn't the annexation of Memel by Germany before the invasion of Poland? It surely was.

Germany annexed Memel from Lithuania in March 1939 - I am sure about this.

This was part of the Secret Protocols in the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.

No, part of this Pact was something different (as Memel was already annexed by Germany in March - few months before invasion of Poland).

According to the Molotov-Ribbentrop Secret Protocols, Germany was going to have entire Lithuania in its zone of "influence".

Only later - yet in September (in "Pact about Friendship...") - Germany exchanged Lithuania for areas of Poland between Vistula and Bug.

According to M-R Pact German-Soviet border was going to be along Vistula (and right-bank part of Warsaw was going to be Soviet) - not along Bug.

However - as I wrote above - later they modified this. And as the result Stalin occupied Lithuania, while Hitler took more of Poland - up to the Bug.

 

[Lord Baal]

Wasn't the annexation of Memel by Germany before the invasion of Poland? It surely was.

Germany annexed Memel from Lithuania in March 1939 - I am sure about this.

Apologies, you are correct. I was thinking March 1940 for some reason.

No, part of this Pact was something different (as Memel was already annexed by Germany in March - few months before invasion of Poland).

According to the Molotov-Ribbentrop Secret Protocols, Germany was going to have entire Lithuania in its zone of "influence".

I'm aware of this original provision.

Only later - yet in September (in "Pact about Friendship...") - Germany exchanged Lithuania for areas of Poland between Vistula and Bug.

According to M-R Pact German-Soviet border was going to be along Vistula (and right-bank part of Warsaw was going to be Soviet) - not along Bug.

However - as I wrote above - later they modified this. And as the result Stalin occupied Lithuania, while Hitler took more of Poland - up to the Bug.

This is true. They modified the Secret Provisions due to the surprisingly quick German advance. The German invasion moved so quickly that they actually arrived in territory set aside for the USSR in the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact before the Soviets had launched their invasion of Poland from the east. To avoid any problems arising from this, Germany relinquished their claims in Lithuania in exchange for a larger chunk of Poland.

 

[Domen]

The German invasion moved so quickly that they actually arrived in territory set aside for the USSR in the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact before the Soviets had launched their invasion of Poland from the east.

In some areas they did arrived in territory set for the USSR, but in some other areas they didn't even reach the demarcation line.

Actually most of the area between the Vistula and the Bug was still in Polish hands at the time of the Soviet Invasion.

On the other hands, the place where Germans advanced beyond the demarcation line was in the South - in the region of Lviv.

They modified the Secret Provisions due to the surprisingly quick German advance.

I don't think the speed of their advance was surprising for the Germans, they planned quick advance. What surprised them was rather the speed of Polish withdrawal - i.e. they didn't manage to encircle and destroy all of Polish forces in area west of Vistula-Narew-San, as they originally planned.

To avoid any problems arising from this, Germany relinquished their claims in Lithuania in exchange for a larger chunk of Poland.

Still it did not help them to avoid problems, as they (German 14. Army) had to withdraw behind the demarcation line in the south. In case of some German units that withdrawal took place under Polish pressure, by the way. And these Polish units came under pressure of Soviets from the east.

 

[Traitorfish]

@SiLL - The only stupid thing here is your lack of brain cells, i have pity on those who live and share air space around you, please do me a favour and warn others that your are about to say something you think is "clever", that way people can prepare their brains for your genious.

Plus, you should learn that when discussing a theme, calling someone else that clearly doesn´t think the same way you do on subjects, stupid, not only reveals your own limitations on the matter, but also gives us a perfect understanding of how your spirit works, do me a favour and make a trip of humility and knowledge to somewhere.