What are your thoughts on BitCoin?

Okay, the way you've phrased that still makes no sense. How does "the black market" address the need for enforcement that results in violent resolutions to disputes in illegal enterprises and illegal trade? Do you mean that using Bitcoin for the black market cuts down on this crime? If so, could you explain a little more?
Shady drug deals IRL can lead to violence (by customers, on customers, dealer vs dealer, gang vs gang), online this doesn't happen (people still screw each other over and conduct illegal trade but it's hard to do a drive by shooting online
 
Oh, you're asking how black market transactions can reduce crime. Merely as a supply effect. People aren't murdering each other for toilet paper if they have toilet paper. It's not like Bitcoin replaces good government. It merely increases the available transactions in regions without a protected currency
 
Shady drug deals IRL can lead to violence (by customers, on customers, dealer vs dealer, gang vs gang), online this doesn't happen (people still screw each other over and conduct illegal trade but it's hard to do a drive by shooting online

Yeah, logistically more difficult, but I highly doubt it simply "doesn't happen." If you stiff someone for enough money they'll reach out and touch you.
 
Bitcoin allows people living under bad governments to conduct transactions on their local Black Market. It's not ideal by any stretch, but people need toilet paper.

Due to rapid high price fluctuations and slow transfer times, Bitcoin is eminently unsuitable for this.
If under "bad governments" you mean Venezuela and such, I'm betting the role you mention has been, is being and for foreseeable future mostly will be filled by regular currencies of other governments, such as dollars.
 
I was hoping this slump would be the end of crypto, in particular ETH, so that I can finally upgrade my graphics card :(

I guess buying ETH would be a decent hedge against rising gfx card prices. Except that it's way more volatile I guess? I'd lose more on ETH going down than I'd gain from cheaper gfx cards. Plus... I don't get a new gfx card!
 
A billionaire is likely to understand how to earn money. They're probably likely to understand finance. But finance isn't the same thing as economics. You can get rich by making other people poorer, by selling a dream to people, or by landing important contracts. The number of billionaires becoming uber-rich through solely win/win transactions is going to be vanishingly small. But even those don't need to understand economics.

The economist is looking at the number from win/win arrangments, or at least from arrangements that limit harms while maximizing goods.

I've spoken to many (many) extremely wealthy financiers. They absolutely know finance. But their economics tends to be rather limited.

It's like psychology and neuroscience. You'd expect a car sales man to actually have a lot of intuitions about psychology, but most of them would be somewhat shallow. You'd not expect him to know very much at all about neuroscience.
 
Due to rapid high price fluctuations and slow transfer times, Bitcoin is eminently unsuitable for this.
If under "bad governments" you mean Venezuela and such, I'm betting the role you mention has been, is being and for foreseeable future mostly will be filled by regular currencies of other governments, such as dollars.

https://www.economist.com/news/fina...d-mobile-phone-minutes-currency-airtime-money

There's no doubt that foreign currencies have a place, which is why I specified "using the internet". Some places are doing trade using airtime minutes, which puts them at terrific risk of inflation under the control of a specific entity. I really liked that idea, where people could use their cellphones to transfer minutes to each other. It's definitely a store of 'real' value while (at the same time) being reasonably portable.

I don't think that bitcoin (specifically) fills this void - there is a reason I never bought any, I strongly believe it's fundamentally valueless (as soon as a superior cryptocurrency comes along, bitcoin's value (as a currency) goes to zero. After that, it's just speculators burning coal to trick money out of each other). But it certainly offers a tool in the toolkit
 
A billionaire is likely to understand how to earn money. They're probably likely to understand finance. But finance isn't the same thing as economics. You can get rich by making other people poorer, by selling a dream to people, or by landing important contracts. The number of billionaires becoming uber-rich through solely win/win transactions is going to be vanishingly small. But even those don't need to understand economics.

The economist is looking at the number from win/win arrangments, or at least from arrangements that limit harms while maximizing goods.

I've spoken to many (many) extremely wealthy financiers. They absolutely know finance. But their economics tends to be rather limited.

It's like psychology and neuroscience. You'd expect a car sales man to actually have a lot of intuitions about psychology, but most of them would be somewhat shallow. You'd not expect him to know very much at all about neuroscience.

Yes, don’t need, I agree. Like that drug baron recently arrested and deported to US or any other petty criminal, who wasn’t caught and put to prison in due time. But, “don’t need” doesn’t mean they don’t understand it. Just pointing towards logical fallacy here. Billionare is likely to understand economics better than most people ever can. Not the opposte.

Saying Bill Gates or Elon Musk don’t understand economics, coming from some random bloke on the internet is a bit over the top, though, wouldn’t you say? They obviously understand economics AND both been formally educated.
 
Yes, don’t need, I agree. Like that drug baron recently arrested and deported to US or any other petty criminal, who wasn’t caught and put to prison in due time. But, “don’t need” doesn’t mean they don’t understand it. Just pointing towards logical fallacy here. Billionare is likely to understand economics better than most people ever can. Not the opposte.

Saying Bill Gates or Elon Musk don’t understand economics, coming from some random bloke on the internet is a bit over the top, though, wouldn’t you say? They obviously understand economics AND both been formally educated.
Why do you think it is obvious? Do you think an understanding of economics is a prerequisite for building an electric car, or an operating system? I would expect that both these markets are so removed from theoretical economic goods that such an understanding would have little use in these fields.
 
Billionare is likely to understand economics better than most people ever can. Not the opposte.

No, billionaires are not more likely to understand economics than economists.

A college professor, perhaps?

If their field is economics or related to economics, then obviously yes.

Saying Bill Gates or Elon Musk don’t understand economics, coming from some random bloke on the internet is a bit over the top, though, wouldn’t you say? They obviously understand economics AND both been formally educated.

https://fee.org/articles/success-at-business-isnt-the-same-as-understanding-economics/

Maybe you'll listen to this guy. I personally think the author of this piece is an idiot but he has some credentials and he's right-wing like you.
 
Saying Bill Gates or Elon Musk don’t understand economics, coming from some random bloke on the internet is a bit over the top, though, wouldn’t you say? They obviously understand economics AND both been formally educated.
Why 'obviously'?

Now, don't get me wrong, both of those guys are clever blokes. And they've clearly done thinking regarding global situations that will cause them to delve into economics. Not because they're billionaires, but because they're curious. Gates, specifically, is quite interested in understanding developmental economics.

I think the major problem with the chart-builder is that they're just using the wrong word. Bitcoin isn't really a question of economics, it's more a financial products question.
 
I think the major problem with the chart-builder is that they're just using the wrong word. Bitcoin isn't really a question of economics, it's more a financial products question.

With nearly 100% certainty, the person who made the chart does not understand economics either.
 
Maybe you'll listen to this guy. I personally think the author of this piece is an idiot but he has some credentials and he's right-wing like you.

Maybe you’ll talk to me directly instead of throwing unasked links, insults and hilarious labels?

Note, it was you, who said billionare = understands economics, not the author of the chart. If the author wanted to put the equal sign in, he would do that, right? He used period though, not equal sign. I do happen to agree with this: it is very likely a guy who built an IT empire spanning all continents has sufficient knowledge in economics to form and vocalize an opinion on digital currencies. It is self-evident to some, and needs Library of Alexandria full of evidence to others. Moreover, he is probably far better candidate to inquire on the subject than some dusty college professor, who read Books and has 0 experience in steering a behemoth vehicle within the economy.
 
Maybe you’ll talk to me directly instead of throwing unasked links, insults and hilarious labels?

I answered you directly and you ignore both those answers. That suggests that answering you directly is, ah, how shall I put it, a waste of time.

Note, it was you, who said billionare = understands economics, not the author of the chart.

The author of the chart listed "self-made billionaire" as evidence that four different individuals "understand economics." That you can't see the logical implications of this is not really my problem.
 
The author of the chart listed "self-made billionaire" as evidence that four different individuals "understand economics

Of course they don’t. Bill Gates, Musk - 0 knowledge in economics. Ask any college professor.

As for my two previous questions - they were rhetorical, don’t mind them
 
This divergence isn't really useful. The maker of the chart used the word 'economics' incorrectly. He really probably means Finance. A college professor is the most likely to understand economics. There is no guarantee that a college professor will do well in business, because the psychology of Behavioral economics isn't well understood yet.
 
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Okay, a bit of a summary as to why buying/holding bitcoin is terrible for the environment.

The blockchain is being calculated by every single miner in the world. The software is designed to (roughly) spit out a bitcoin every ten minutes. This is true whether there are a thousand miners or a billion. Every ten minutes. What happens is that the difficulty of the mining increases proportionately to the number of miners. But the blockchain is recalculated every ten minutes. Additional miners don't 'help' this updating, calculations still get processed regardless of the number of miners.

But, at the individual level, it's worth mining if your reward is sufficient. If I know that you're willing to pay $10k USD for my next mined coin, it's worth spending $9999.99 of electricity doing it. Especially if the servers are already set up, and now are just mining their next coin. Now, people who're super-good at business won't spend that much, because they're going to amortize the wear-and-tear on their machines and factor that in.

But other people are mining used pre-existing infrastructure. They're willing to damage their computer in order to get money, or (more likely) they don't know how to run the amortization. But every single person is willing to burn $9999.99 of assets in order to get the next bitcoin. In Edmonton, AB (using conservative statistics) this means that mining one coin is going to generate 21 tonnes of CO2 emissions. That's the average emission per Canadian per year.

And, it's even worse. In some regions of the world, electricity is subsidized. You know, because electricity is such a useful tool, it's sold at below-cost. But the miners in these regions will only care about their personal bank account. It doesn't matter how much their society spends on the electricity, they're willing to spend $9999.99. Or criminal hijackers using malware. Students hijacking school computer labs. Technicians hijacking company servers. They're willing to spend other people's hardware and electricity in order to get the next coin. Hell, I ran folding@home on work computers when I was younger, and I was just trying to be altruistic. I didn't heavily weight that I was spending someone else's money ...

So, being willing to hold a bitcoin at $10k means that you're providing a signal "the next mined coin is worth $10k". Being willing to 'buy back in' at $8k sends a signal of what that next coin is worth.

Keep in mind, all of the really great things about bitcoin don't require a high value. The Venezuelan buying toilet paper doesn't care if he's transferring 0.01 bitcoins or a thousand of them. The transaction will be conducted at what they perceive to be the very best real price. But the social cost of the bitcoin is utterly dependent on its actual value. There will still be people mining like stink if Bitcoin were worth $0.10. But only if their electricity + amortization (+ subsidy) makes it worth it.

Finally, most of bitcoin's value is maintained through a parasitical relationship with our governments. If the EU said "we will not enforce (using our courts) if the contract contains bitcoins", the value would plummet. And we wouldn't have to spend any tax dollars looking at these contracts, and chasing rabbit trails of ownership. Nada. Never mind that Venezuela would literally have more money, since one additional avenue of abusing a subsidy would be reduced.

Edit: as an aside, a similar problem is achieved by fixing a country's currency to gold. The difference being "the more gold miners there are, the more gold gets pulled up". Each increase in price is followed by an investment intended to increase supply.
 
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Finally, most of bitcoin's value is maintained through a parasitical relationship with our governments. If the EU said "we will not enforce (using our courts) if the contract contains bitcoins", the value would plummet. And we wouldn't have to spend any tax dollars looking at these contracts, and chasing rabbit trails of ownership. Nada. Never mind that Venezuela would literally have more money, since one additional avenue of abusing a subsidy would be reduced.
I agree with the vast majority of your post, but I think this is the weakest point. How would you do this within the framework of UK (and I presume US, Canada, etc.) contract law? I don't see how Bitcoin could not meet the criteria for consideration, for example.

I also fail to see how Bitcoin's relationship with the government is any more "parasitical" than any other contractual agreement. If the government decided to not enforce contracts containing various other types of consideration then the value of those other things would also plummet. I don't see how this is evidence of Bitcoin's lack of value.

EDIT: And I also disagree that the value of Bitcoin is substantially dependent on the enforceability of contracts containing Bitcoin. I think Bitcoin is relatively unique in that it markets itself as something that doesn't even need enforceability, so it's likely that most people don't consider government enforceability of Bitcoin contracts to be significantly valuable or important to them.

(PS. For "Bitcoin" read "any cryptocurrency".)
 
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Yes, don’t need, I agree. Like that drug baron recently arrested and deported to US or any other petty criminal, who wasn’t caught and put to prison in due time. But, “don’t need” doesn’t mean they don’t understand it. Just pointing towards logical fallacy here. Billionare is likely to understand economics better than most people ever can. Not the opposte.

Saying Bill Gates or Elon Musk don’t understand economics, coming from some random bloke on the internet is a bit over the top, though, wouldn’t you say? They obviously understand economics AND both been formally educated.


I think the point here is that whether or not someone is a billionaire does not provide a point of information concerning whether or not they understand economics. An understanding of economics is not an either necessary, nor a sufficient, condition for being a billionaire. By whatever method the billionaire became a billionaire, an understanding of economics as an academic discipline isn't really a requirement. Trump is, or at least claims to be, a billionaire, and he certainly doesn't understand economics. The Koch brothers are billionaires, and they certainly do not understand economics. As to more self made billionaires, such as Gates, knowing economics just isn't relevant to how he made his fortune.

Knowing business, knowing the market you work in, is a fundamentally different subject from knowing economics. Which is why the Republicans have gotten all these "business friendly" policies either into law or proposed law, and they have been utter crap for the economy as a whole. Two different subjects.
 
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