World War I Turning Point Poll

The turning point that guaranteed an Allied victory was:

  • November 1914 (Failure to take Paris)

    Votes: 12 17.9%
  • June 1916 (Brusilov Offensive)

    Votes: 3 4.5%
  • May 1916 (Jutland)

    Votes: 1 1.5%
  • December 1916 (Verdun)

    Votes: 6 9.0%
  • March-November 1917 (Russian Revolutions)

    Votes: 2 3.0%
  • April 1917 (Nivelle Offensive)

    Votes: 2 3.0%
  • April 1917 (American entry into the war)

    Votes: 32 47.8%
  • March 1918 (Treaty of Brest-Litovsk)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • May-July 1918 (3rd Battle of the Marne)

    Votes: 5 7.5%
  • August 1918 (Black Day of the German Army)

    Votes: 1 1.5%
  • Other (Please specify)

    Votes: 3 4.5%

  • Total voters
    67
Originally posted by MajorGeneral2
It could be argued that the "Turning Point" may have occured before the war even started. I'm referring to when Russia dropped its alliance with Germany in favor of France (1902, IIRC), which almost guaranteed absolutely that Germany would have to fight on multiple fronts, eliminating any chance of repeating the Franco-Prussian War of several years earlier.
It wasn't the Russians who dropped the relationship (it wasn't an alliance) with Germany, it was the Germans. More specifically, it was Kaiser Wilhelm II. And it didn't happen in 1902 but in 1890.

In 1887, Bismarck negotiated a diplomatic masterpiece, a secret treaty with Russia against his ally Austria. Called the Reinsurance Treaty, it was defensive and promised only neutrality, not military assistance, if either party were attacked (German neutrality if Austria attacked Russia, Russian neutrality if France attacked Germany). Despite its limitations, it violated, as Bismarck well knew, the alliance treaty Germany had with Austria. So Bismarck obviously insisted on secrecy. Tsar Alexander III was no less anxious to hide the existence of the Reinsurance Treaty. Himself a pan-Slav, he could predict the reaction of other pan-Slavs. Alexander signed the treaty only because it gave him a promise of German neutrality in case Austria provoked a war with Russia. Russia did not want to fight Germany; certainly the Russian Army was not capable of fighting Germany and Austria together.

In 1890, the Treaty was up for renewal. Wilhelm had just deposed Bismarck as Chancellor (the reasons why are long and involved but basically amount to Wilhelm's dislike of anyone being as powerful as he thought he was). Wilhelm had promised the Russian ambassador, Shuvalov, that the treaty would be renewed. The new German Chancellor, Georg von Caprivi (don't ask about the Italian name), was informed about the Treaty by the eminance gris of the Germany Foreign Ministry, Freidrich von Holstein. Holstein had hated Bismarck (Holstein hated almost everyone) and warned Caprivi that the Treaty undermined the Austrian alliance. Caprivi talked to Wilhelm who, ignoring what he told Shuvalov just two days previously, told Caprivi to let the Treaty lapse.

Stripped of the relationship with Germany, Russia began to seek another. On July 23, 1890, only four months after Germany's refusal to renew the Reinsurance Treaty, a French naval squadron made a visit to the Russian naval base at Kronstadt. Tsar Alexander gave a dinner to the French officers and stood during the playing of the Marseillaise, the revolutionary anthem which had been prohibited within the borders of the Russian Empire. Thus began the Franco-Russian Double Entente.
 
Failure to take Paris. Had Moltke's plan been followed out like planned it very well might have taken France sparring the next 4 years of fighting. After france fell and Russia fell, then there weren't many others who could oppose the german army.
 
I voted for November 1914:

While the Brusilov Offensive was a success for Russia, it was one of it's only successes of the war. Meanwhile, the entire Russian offensive capability was destryed at Tannenburg. This threw the Russians on the defensive and broke their spirits for the remainder of the war. This German victory aslo helped fuel the Russian Revolution further.

The American attitude in 1914 was that of isolation from a far-away Europe and Germany hadn't blundered diplomaticaly as it would in later years.

Germany was steamrolling through the low countries and the arrival of the machine gun anniliated the French offensive through territories Germany captured in 1871. The British hadn't arrived in signifigant force to be a major contender, and it's blockade hadn't reared it's ugly head enough to cripple the German war effort.

Had the Germans taken Paris, surviving soldiers would have had a hell of a lot to brag about to their grand kids for Germany would have won a war on two fronts.

I happen to like Martin Gilbert thank you very much...
 
Originally posted by YNCS

It wasn't the Russians who dropped the relationship (it wasn't an alliance) with Germany, it was the Germans. More specifically, it was Kaiser Wilhelm II. And it didn't happen in 1902 but in 1890.

Excuse my confusion of terms, I was going off memory. You're right, but my post still stands.
 
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