Worst odds you ever won/lost?

[automator]

I had a lucky stroke where I tossed an un-upgraded cat against a fortified machine gunner in a city with 60% defense. When I saw that the cat still had .4 life, I thought maybe it had withdrawn, but then I got the message that the machine gun had died. Pretty happy there. I thought I had no chance of taking the city, but I did.

 

[Thomas G.]

Is it possible to have 106,7% odds? This must be some programming/calculating error, as 100% would be max (The chance to get a head OR tail if you throw a coin and only allow those two results...)

I have also seen 100% propability, but I'm pretty sure the game rounds off to one decimal point for display purposes, but still keeps the true value. If anyone lost with 100% odds this sorta proves this. (If the true propability was like 99,96 it would show as 100, but still have a certain margin of failure.)

I have had units at 0.0 strength still alive, so this also indicates this.

However 106.7% does not mean anything mathematically or statistically.

And I state again that humans only remember the extraordinary bad luck, but forget about expected "good luck" paying off

In my most recent game, I had to beeline to gunpowder due to lack of copper AND iron in my and my neighbours land.
I sent a force of 7 musketeers to fight archers in cities.
I had typically 70-80% odds to win every fight, so I expected to mostly win, but I proceeded to lose only 1 unit after 15 fights. Not that spectacular, but this really was very good luck, even though I expected it every fight...

By the way, has anyone found a way to protect the mouse those times you lose an elite unit at >95% odds? It has a tedency to get slammed about a bit...

 

[cabert]

Is it possible to have 106,7% odds? This must be some programming/calculating error, as 100% would be max (The chance to get a head OR tail if you throw a coin and only allow those two results...)

I have also seen 100% propability, but I'm pretty sure the game rounds off to one decimal point for display purposes, but still keeps the true value. If anyone lost with 100% odds this sorta proves this. (If the true propability was like 99,96 it would show as 100, but still have a certain margin of failure.)

I have had units at 0.0 strength still alive, so this also indicates this.

However 106.7% does not mean anything mathematically or statistically.

firaxis sure aren't too good at mathematics
it usually comes from first strikes miscalculation.
Not sure, but i have the feeling that cIV calculates the odds from a single attack basis, and adds something for each first strikes (i had drill 4, that's a lot of first strikes!)

 

[automator]

By the way, has anyone found a way to protect the mouse those times you lose an elite unit at >95% odds? It has a tedency to get slammed about a bit...

You attack your mouse? I have a tendency to directly attack the units on screen. My poor LCD has so many scratches on it.

 

[Duke Anselmi]

I had once changes of 0.5% and won. I dont remeber sure what kind of units were facing each other, but it was probaply Swordsman vs. Tank
best changes came with lose were 97 %. it was Modern armor vs Camel archer

 

[Teg_Navanis]

I played with Zuul's Perks and Promotion Mod and lost many battles with odds higher than 100% (since most units get several first strikes through stack aid). I really hope the combat odds will be fixed with the new patch - my Unit Statistics Mod tracks all battles and calculates each unit's average combat odds and also stores the 'luckiest fight' for each unit.

I could also imagine a statistic called "how lucky is your unit still to be alive", where all combat odds are multiplied. Hey, I'll do that

 

[Teg_Navanis]

done. Phew, 28 minutes (including a beta-test and the publication) is a pretty short time from the first idea to the release of a new feature, I hope it's bug-free...

 

[Tatran]

... and I very nearly broke my mouse.

Had to buy a new one,but man,I was very relieved after that.

I only remember the bad scores,because I never attack with
low odds.As the attacker 99.6% and as the defender 99.3% odds.
(the AI attacked with 0.7% odds )

 

[Sir Booboo]

I almost feel sometimes that you are more likely to lose with high chances at higher difficulty levels, but that is probably just my imagination.

 

[Harald]

Worst loss I've had was while defending. Lost against an animal who had 0.6% chance of winning. The worst part of it was that it happend again shortly thereafter, same odds. It was rather depressing since it was my starting warrior and my first produced one.
Don't remember the odds for my worst odds win since I didn't check them. It was with an archer against an fortified archer in a city. Don't remember the uppgrades either, it was a while ago. I´m fairly certain that the odds can't have been good.

 

[`DG`]

Harald when i get things like that in the very early game I crack open the worldbuilder in annoyance and replace the unit. I feel like I've been cheated, and cheated back, spoils the game for a bit but losing a very early unit in such a way is a big setback.

 

[BadHorsie]

By the way, has anyone found a way to protect the mouse those times you lose an elite unit at >95% odds? It has a tedency to get slammed about a bit...

Yeah, I'm a mouse-slammer too. Made the ball all crappy and insensitive with my last mouse.

 

[Tatran]

Unless it's an emergency I never attack with low odds.
I sent 4 archers to kill 2 archers in an enemy city close
to my capital.I never expected the first archer to win
at 4.4% combat odds.He also earned 6 XPs.

 

[CiverDan]

In an MP game I lost a game when 2 unpromoted warriors attacked my full health Combat 1 warrior in on my hill cap. The first warrior had 0.1 health left when it had a 99.2% success chance.

 

[Shadowsong]

Believe it or not but I once lost 8 Praetorians in a row against an archer in a game. I had 50% odds in the first battle and 99.99% in the last but still lost.

 

[cabert]

Believe it or not but I once lost 8 Praetorians in a row against an archer in a game. I had 50% odds in the first battle and 99.99% in the last but still lost.

the archer had drill 4, city garrison III?

hope you had a warrior to send in as ninth to finally kill rambo the archer?

 

[Shadowsong]

the archer had drill 4, city garrison III?

hope you had a warrior to send in as ninth to finally kill rambo the archer?

The archer's only promotions was city garrison 1 & 2. The city was placed on a hill with this archer as the only defender. Anyway I managed to take the city the next turn with another stack of Praetorians.

 

[777]

I remember I got sometime ago victory over 5-6% percentage when my catapult attacked I knew that whatever unit I'll be sending next it gets beated, IMO usually if you've win with 50 or 60-70 odds you have greater changes to get slaughted by next unit, if calculator shows those percentages. Three victories in a row with 60% changes is quite good.

 

[777]

Yeah, I'm a mouse-slammer too. Made the ball all crappy and insensitive with my last mouse.

I slammed so much my keyboard so eventually it looked a happy face It really looked happy face when you look it straight Though I've quitted that behaviour now, nowdays I just hit monitor with a good punch since it can take pretty much of damage. I don't know but civs have been allways the games what makes me so furious but still I go back and try again.

 

[Blazer6]

On my first game I picked the wrong unit and won with a 0.1 strength warrior against an archer defending a city.