Would Israel attack Iran, if they where close to the bomb?

[Bronx Warlord]

America has had decades to deal with Iran. Don't whine now

Hardly. I'm the NCO with five in the service. You really think I have a problem going to Iran? It's when the draft notices go out that it becomes real. I'll see you in Terran Curt, frist round on me.

You should have put on your boots back in 1979.

I agree, the peanut farmer diden't. Considering I wasen't alive at the time and chances are neither were you, it's a moot point.

 

[Rambuchan]

Would Israel attack Iran, if they where close to the bomb?

Israel have had the bomb - and a whole load of other filthy stuff that others have been invaded over - and that the USA has used already - for ages. And yes, they did.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mordechai_Vanunu

 

[nc-1701]

They blasted Iran's incomplete nuclear station 25 years ago, and will do it again. I hope so too!
I want to see that bearded chump Ahmadinejad's face when his nuke ambitions are demolished by the Jews!

That will be sweet, seeing the moslems in a real twist!

Actually that was Iraq

Iran learned a great deal from that and has hardend and spread out their nuclear sites I seriously doubt Isrel could do much damage to them and in retaliation Iran would do the folowing.
*Order Hizbullah to attack Isreal again.
*Sik Al-Sadr on US troops in Iraq
*Shoot down most or all of the Isreali strike force.
*Rain down hunrdeds of ballistic missiles with warheads far more damaging than what Hizbullah used on Isreali cities.

End result atleast 100,000 dead on both sides Irans nuclear program suffers only minimal damage.

This estimate is meant to be realistic not to make a point so please don't call me a "Isreal hater" or a "America hater" for simply stating facts and probabilities as I see them.

 

[CartesianFart]

A military attack would ultimately be largely futile as this would provoke the construction of secret facilities and probably a withdrawal from the NPT. Risking bringing about the scenario that several states seek to avoid would be the result of an attack.

It is important to realize that of the possible candidates to conduct air strikes most are too weak for this task and would find themselves in yet another failed, non-won situation from which they would be unable to extricate themselves. How would it end; would it even be possible to stop the back and forth attacks after it initiates? Once any air strikes occur there would instantly be various forms of retaliation such as missile attacks. Though the United States is the only country capable of causing much of an effect it is quite doubtful that it would get involved as doing so would cause extremely negative, dangerous, and long lasting effects.

Iranian internal politics will be the most important factor in determining their final position. The more pragmatic leaders are seeking to milk as much as they can from the negotiating states to improve the government's situation and ease domestic problems. The less compromising ones believe that opposition to the nuclear program has been substantially lackluster. Much of the militant speech that has been issued is aimed at concealing domestic changes that have been occurring. They are gambling that public opinion turning against some members of the Security Council will negate increased economic and social problems resulting from the stepping up of diplomatic confrontation. They may eventually decide that cutting a deal is more worthwhile if the costs of not doing so start to harm their position.

I hope to see you around more often,if you read this.I have to say you have a knack for international relations narrative better i've seen in this thread or for awhile now.

 

[nivi]

Actually that was Iraq

Iran learned a great deal from that and has hardend and spread out their nuclear sites I seriously doubt Isrel could do much damage to them and in retaliation Iran would do the folowing.
*Order Hizbullah to attack Isreal again.
The sooner the better, i'd rathar deal with a less powerfull hizballah then a nuclear Iran anyway and anyday
*Sik Al-Sadr on US troops in Iraq
Ditto
*Shoot down most or all of the Isreali strike force.
Overestimating Iran air defense a wee bit, don't you think? Considiring they haven't much of an air force and ground to air defenses never proved to be that effective
*Rain down hunrdeds of ballistic missiles with warheads far more damaging than what Hizbullah used on Isreali cities.
At least some will be picked up by the Hetz and Patriot

End result atleast 100,000 dead on both sides Irans nuclear program suffers only minimal damage.
You have no idea what kind of damage needs to be done to have 100,000 dead now do you? Thats just complete BS

This estimate is meant to be realistic not to make a point so please don't call me a "Isreal hater" or a "America hater" for simply stating facts and probabilities as I see them.

And about the effectiveness of the strike? The strike itself won't be much effective, sure it will push Iran back a few years but it wouldn't stop her, I do believe however that the USA will have enough reasons to attack Iran from the air after that that they will finish the job.

 

[nc-1701]

And about the effectiveness of the strike? The strike itself won't be much effective, sure it will push Iran back a few years but it wouldn't stop her, I do believe however that the USA will have enough reasons to attack Iran from the air after that that they will finish the job.

Irans air defences are many times better than Iraqs ever were they have F-14s and MIG-29s as well as a fairly modern air defence system.

As for the death toll I see maybe a total of a hundred from your attack on Iran. A thousend from their retaliatory missile strike, and another thousend from the second Hizbullah war. The remaining 98% come from the conflict between the US troops in Iraq and the Mahdi army.

The end result is basicaly thousends dead no major benefits. The USA is the only country who can effectively take down Iran and even that would be no sure thing costing billions and many lives.

I say let them get the bomb just make they no if it goes off in one of our cities or our allies we will turn your nation into radioactive rubble.

 

[nivi]

Irans air defences are many times better than Iraqs ever were they have F-14s and MIG-29s as well as a fairly modern air defence system.

As for the death toll I see maybe a total of a hundred from your attack on Iran. A thousend from their retaliatory missile strike, and another thousend from the second Hizbullah war. The remaining 98% come from the conflict between the US troops in Iraq and the Mahdi army.

The end result is basicaly thousends dead no major benefits. The USA is the only country who can effectively take down Iran and even that would be no sure thing costing billions and many lives.

I say let them get the bomb just make they no if it goes off in one of our cities or our allies we will turn your nation into radioactive rubble.

F-15s got a perfect record on migs. The F-14s are falling apart, and the fairly modern air defense? Meh, that's russian tech, and western tech beat russian tech again and again, some jets will be shot down by the air defense undoubtebly, but not enough to compirmise the mission.

You are way overestimating the Mahdi army, they can be a pest but causing tens of thousands of deaths? Nah, not in thier job description.


Thousands dead...Beats millions everyday, and, by recent speech by ahmednijad about god, wiping israel etc etc, I would not doubt it for a second that a nuke will be detonated in Israel, and the "deterrence"? In the cold war you had deterence, here...A nuclear war might be just what he wants, the muslim apocalypse the fight between good and evil...
IIRC he said he was the mahdi...

 

[nc-1701]

F-15s got a perfect record on migs. The F-14s are falling apart, and the fairly modern air defense? Meh, that's russian tech, and western tech beat russian tech again and again, some jets will be shot down by the air defense undoubtebly, but not enough to compirmise the mission.

You are way overestimating the Mahdi army, they can be a pest but causing tens of thousands of deaths? Nah, not in thier job description.


Thousands dead...Beats millions everyday, and, by recent speech by ahmednijad about god, wiping israel etc etc, I would not doubt it for a second that a nuke will be detonated in Israel, and the "deterrence"? In the cold war you had deterence, here...A nuclear war might be just what he wants, the muslim apocalypse the fight between good and evil...
IIRC he said he was the mahdi...

Yeah of course they do the only time I remember MIG-29s taking on F-15 was the Gulf war and Iraqs airforce has always been pretty poorly maintained with poor training.
Iran recently got a delivery of modern Russian SAMs (post cold war tech) and remembering that a 60s era SAM system took down an F-117 never underestimate your enemy.

Sure the Mahdi army won't kill hundreds of thousends. We Americans will when we put down the revolt you caused.

This is where we disagree I believe that knowing it will be anihilliated within an hour of attacking should be sufficient deterant. Even for crazy extremists.

Finally I highly doubt your attack would be succesfull there nuclear sites are hardened against air attack and spread out in numerous places Isreal lacks the numbes to effectivly do more than piss Iran off.

Oh and don't count on us coming to the rescue such a mission if done without first consulting us and causing us a massive new insurgency. Would doubtlessly make America very unhappy.

 

[nivi]

Yeah of course they do the only time I remember MIG-29s taking on F-15 was the Gulf war and Iraqs airforce has always been pretty poorly maintained with poor training.
And the Iranian AF is well maintianed?
Iran recently got a delivery of modern Russian SAMs (post cold war tech) and remembering that a 60s era SAM system took down an F-117 never underestimate your enemy.
Recently as in 15 years ago? And sure it shot down the F-117, but not becuase of merit, just becuase the commanders were a "bit" delerict.

Sure the Mahdi army won't kill hundreds of thousends. We Americans will when we put down the revolt you caused.
Maybe so, still prefer it over millions

This is where we disagree I believe that knowing it will be anihilliated within an hour of attacking should be sufficient deterant. Even for crazy extremists.
Death has never been a detterent for crazy extremist, as so many of them say: "you love life as much as we love death"
Finally I highly doubt your attack would be succesfull there nuclear sites are hardened against air attack and spread out in numerous places Isreal lacks the numbes to effectivly do more than piss Iran off.
We lack the number? Several hundereds of the finest jets in the world should do the trick

Oh and don't count on us coming to the rescue such a mission if done without first consulting us and causing us a massive new insurgency. Would doubtlessly make America very unhappy.

I would count on G.W.B coming for the rescue.

But even if they don't, setting them back a few years (which such a mission will do, would give some breathing room.

 

[nc-1701]

I would count on G.W.B coming for the rescue.

But even if they don't, setting them back a few years (which such a mission will do, would give some breathing room.

Better than Iraqs was.

Yeah well I read an article on that did you know that battery took out several aircraft not just one? Or that it survived the war intact despite reteated missions to destoy it?
BTW the commander is now working on his strategy guide err I mean memoirs.

Of course but only if you truly believe inaction would result in millions of deaths.

Most of Irans population aren't crazy extremists at least not in the same way as Palestine.

F-15s are by no means the "fine jets in the world" in fact they aren't even designed for ground attack. Also you have no more than maybe a hundred less I think not "hundreds"

After november there ios no garuntee GWB would be capable of helping you even if h so chose in fact I doubt he could now.

Sure you wll set them back a little but then you will be assured that if you screwup and they get the bomb it will be used against you.

 

[nivi]

Better than Iraqs was.
Not by much

Yeah well I read an article on that did you know that battery took out several aircraft not just one? Or that it survived the war intact despite reteated missions to destoy it?
BTW the commander is now working on his strategy guide err I mean memoirs.
Yeah well the mission isn't about SAM, even if there will be losses the main objective will be achieved

Of course but only if you truly believe inaction would result in millions of deaths.
I do.

Most of Irans population aren't crazy extremists at least not in the same way as Palestine.
Doesn't matter what most Iranians belive, only the iranian at the top.

F-15s are by no means the "fine jets in the world" in fact they aren't even designed for ground attack. Also you have no more than maybe a hundred less I think not "hundreds"
Was talking about F-16I too

After november there ios no garuntee GWB would be capable of helping you even if h so chose in fact I doubt he could now.
Even so...

Sure you wll set them back a little but then you will be assured that if you screwup and they get the bomb it will be used against you.

But I thought you said Iranians are rational, even if they were attacked to try to stop them from getting nuclear weapons, they still wouldn't want to be anaihalted just for "revenge" (unfortunatly, knowing arab culture, you'r probably right, but that's assuming they weren't gonna attack first).

 

[Sh3kel]

You are way overestimating the Mahdi army, they can be a pest but causing

Many of our men died in the Lebanese conflict because of this kind of arrogance prevalent in our high-ranking officers. The Iranians aren't all-powerful and all-knowing boogymen who lurk and sleep below our beds, but they're no pushovers. It's vital to acknowledge the limitation of our own strenght- this one is a task we simply cannot pull off without massively overstretching our line and risking a ****-up the size of the 1973 surprise. Please, pay proper respect to the only nation since then with the actual capacity to kill us.

 

[Bronx Warlord]

Nicely put Sh3kel