2.7 AI-only Game Statistics (update: now with summary list of games)

L. Vern

Warlord
Joined
Sep 5, 2022
Messages
106
Location
Ontario, Canada
Hello everyone,
this post is quite similar to the last one I made of this type, just on the new patch. I do also want to put the disclaimer that these numbers can't be directly compared to the last post as it was run with numOptionsConsidered=2, whereas this one was run with numOptionsConsidered=1.

Victory Types:
Spoiler victory types :

1665579062955.png


We got a domination victory now! Otherwise the ratios look fairly similar, but once again the AI is playing more efficiently now with numOptionsConsidered=1 so I don't think the CV nerf did nothing

Spoiler civilizations :

Rank​
Civ
Games​
Victories​
Winrate​
Culture Victories​
Diplomatic Victories​
Science Victories​
Time Victories​
Domination Victories​
Average Victory Score​
Average Score Rank​
Turn 100 Average Score​
Turn 100 Average Rank​
Turn 200 Average Score​
Turn 200 Average Rank​
Turn 300 Average Score​
Turn 300 Average Rank​
Turn 400 Average Score​
Turn 400 Average Rank​
Turn 500 Average Score​
Turn 500 Average Rank​
1​
Austria
23​
12​
0.52​
2​
10​
0​
0​
0​
2013.91​
4.39​
360.39​
4.74​
932.7​
4.7​
1622.39​
4.43​
1793.85​
5​
0​
9​
2​
Brazil
18​
9​
0.5​
9​
0​
0​
0​
0​
2443.44​
3.72​
370.39​
4.33​
1039.5​
3.56​
1884.5​
3.61​
2814.71​
3.14​
nan​
nan​
3​
Arabia
22​
7​
0.32​
7​
0​
0​
0​
0​
1842.41​
4.5​
376.36​
4.32​
972.77​
4.55​
1591.45​
4.27​
1445.12​
5.5​
nan​
nan​
4​
The Netherlands
17​
5​
0.29​
3​
2​
0​
0​
0​
2076.06​
4.29​
359.25​
4.56​
864.06​
5.12​
1456.56​
4.75​
2166.22​
3.78​
nan​
nan​
5​
Venice
28​
8​
0.29​
5​
3​
0​
0​
0​
2034.04​
4.25​
405​
2.79​
1043.79​
2.96​
1734.61​
3.82​
1692.2​
5.07​
nan​
nan​
6​
Germany
25​
7​
0.28​
1​
3​
2​
1​
0​
2307.08​
3.68​
364.33​
4.58​
922.21​
4.38​
1597.5​
3.96​
2325.87​
3.4​
3362​
1​
7​
Japan
16​
4​
0.25​
3​
0​
1​
0​
0​
2706.31​
3.12​
380.62​
3.81​
1118​
2.56​
1897.62​
2.94​
2430.5​
4​
0​
7​
8​
Poland
12​
3​
0.25​
2​
1​
0​
0​
0​
1998.5​
4.08​
372.25​
3.75​
897.75​
4.17​
1455.5​
4.67​
1687.62​
5.25​
nan​
nan​
9​
Morocco
20​
5​
0.25​
4​
1​
0​
0​
0​
1957.1​
4.65​
333.4​
6.2​
834.5​
5.2​
1299.7​
4.85​
1587.2​
5.4​
1496​
6​
10​
Siam
17​
4​
0.24​
1​
3​
0​
0​
0​
1835​
4.06​
378.53​
3.35​
902.35​
4.82​
1377.41​
4.71​
1889.1​
4.3​
3467​
2​
11​
The Maya
20​
4​
0.2​
2​
1​
1​
0​
0​
1683.95​
4.5​
391.45​
3.45​
969.1​
4.15​
1362.95​
4.9​
1430.1​
5.6​
nan​
nan​
12​
The Inca
21​
4​
0.19​
4​
0​
0​
0​
0​
2619.14​
3.52​
402.86​
3.43​
1109.19​
3.05​
1898.81​
2.95​
2887.5​
2.75​
nan​
nan​
13​
Ethiopia
32​
6​
0.19​
5​
0​
1​
0​
0​
1762.94​
4.47​
387.81​
3.28​
957.75​
3.91​
1451.56​
4.25​
1586.41​
5.06​
nan​
nan​
14​
Egypt
16​
3​
0.19​
3​
0​
0​
0​
0​
1676.56​
5.56​
368.29​
4.5​
945.21​
4.21​
1349.14​
5.14​
1545.67​
6.17​
nan​
nan​
15​
America
22​
4​
0.18​
0​
3​
0​
1​
0​
2055.18​
4.77​
353.23​
4.59​
840.91​
5.32​
1424.05​
4.86​
1835.55​
5.09​
3413​
4​
16​
Korea
18​
3​
0.17​
3​
0​
0​
0​
0​
2113.56​
4.5​
377.33​
3.94​
915.39​
5​
1662.78​
4.28​
2170.17​
3.83​
nan​
nan​
17​
China
25​
4​
0.16​
4​
0​
0​
0​
0​
1651.68​
4.88​
388.25​
3.71​
928.25​
4.96​
1429.5​
5​
1429.22​
5.89​
2479​
3​
18​
Indonesia
21​
3​
0.14​
2​
0​
1​
0​
0​
2598​
3.67​
376.9​
3.95​
1030.57​
3.52​
1799.57​
3.43​
2430.9​
4.4​
nan​
nan​
19​
Byzantium
22​
3​
0.14​
0​
1​
2​
0​
0​
2411.32​
3.95​
356.59​
4.91​
972.5​
4.09​
1666.18​
4.14​
2426​
3.69​
nan​
nan​
20​
The Ottomans
19​
2​
0.11​
0​
2​
0​
0​
0​
2319.11​
3.74​
370.74​
4.26​
1008.37​
3.21​
1781.84​
3.32​
2061​
4.29​
nan​
nan​
21​
India
19​
2​
0.11​
2​
0​
0​
0​
0​
1853.89​
4.95​
381.22​
4.06​
929.11​
4.39​
1395​
4.61​
2117.27​
4.36​
nan​
nan​
22​
The Celts
23​
2​
0.09​
2​
0​
0​
0​
0​
1953.87​
4.22​
378.09​
4.09​
968.57​
3.91​
1603.17​
3.96​
2002.5​
4.3​
nan​
nan​
23​
France
25​
2​
0.08​
2​
0​
0​
0​
0​
1857.48​
5​
316.16​
6.52​
807.4​
5.48​
1394.08​
5.44​
2012.2​
4.5​
1991.5​
5​
24​
Songhai
26​
2​
0.08​
1​
1​
0​
0​
0​
2443.31​
3.85​
363.69​
4.19​
991.42​
3.81​
1718.19​
4​
2492.83​
4​
nan​
nan​
25​
The Iroquois
27​
2​
0.07​
0​
0​
0​
1​
1​
2806.59​
3.26​
381.11​
3.52​
1011.81​
3.7​
1883.04​
3.22​
2625.06​
3.56​
4331​
1​
26​
Denmark
17​
1​
0.06​
0​
1​
0​
0​
0​
2023.24​
4.71​
318.88​
6.65​
853.88​
5.41​
1407.65​
5.12​
2322.67​
4​
nan​
nan​
27​
England
17​
1​
0.06​
0​
1​
0​
0​
0​
1613.29​
4.94​
324.53​
6.18​
744.35​
6​
1120.59​
5.53​
2008.44​
4.22​
nan​
nan​
28​
Assyria
17​
1​
0.06​
1​
0​
0​
0​
0​
1598.88​
5.24​
356.18​
4.59​
910.12​
4.29​
1329.12​
5.24​
1689.17​
5.33​
682.5​
7​
29​
Persia
18​
1​
0.06​
1​
0​
0​
0​
0​
1775.61​
5.33​
339.47​
5.88​
810.59​
5.47​
1255.41​
5.88​
2297.25​
3.75​
nan​
nan​
30​
Russia
19​
1​
0.05​
0​
0​
1​
0​
0​
2560.53​
3.42​
389.33​
3.28​
997.72​
3.5​
1804.78​
3.11​
2600.3​
2.9​
nan​
nan​
31​
Portugal
19​
1​
0.05​
0​
1​
0​
0​
0​
1982.32​
4.32​
344.61​
5.5​
822.33​
5.56​
1370.33​
4.83​
2147.46​
3.85​
1460​
5.5​
32​
Babylon
27​
1​
0.04​
1​
0​
0​
0​
0​
1389.37​
5.56​
365.77​
4.19​
807.77​
5.65​
1119.08​
6​
1020.5​
6.57​
2508​
4​
33​
The Zulus
29​
1​
0.03​
0​
1​
0​
0​
0​
2112.03​
4.62​
331.04​
6.19​
822.07​
5.52​
1451.3​
4.78​
2153.69​
4.06​
3368​
3​
34​
Carthage
34​
1​
0.03​
0​
0​
1​
0​
0​
2362.76​
3.74​
407.55​
2.76​
1055.3​
3.36​
1755.7​
3.61​
2209.62​
4.12​
1168​
6​
35​
The Shoshone
21​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
2380.1​
3.9​
375.95​
4.15​
978​
4.15​
1611.15​
4.45​
2340.5​
3.6​
nan​
nan​
36​
The Aztecs
27​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
2229.3​
4.07​
364.96​
4.31​
969.15​
4.23​
1637.92​
4.54​
2122.4​
4.87​
1930​
5​
37​
Polynesia
26​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
1931.92​
5​
379.54​
4.31​
972.12​
4.04​
1516.46​
4.65​
1977.23​
5.23​
nan​
nan​
38​
The Huns
17​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
1911.24​
4.94​
331.18​
6.24​
829.18​
5.71​
1409.06​
5​
2245.33​
4.67​
nan​
nan​
39​
Mongolia
18​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
1768.61​
4.72​
318.33​
6.28​
850.67​
5.39​
1290.44​
5.39​
1864.7​
5.1​
3633​
2​
40​
Spain
27​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
1644.56​
5.48​
367.44​
4.22​
834.26​
5.56​
1190.04​
5.85​
1827.79​
5.14​
0​
9​
41​
Sweden
25​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
1588.8​
5.36​
326.04​
6.33​
786.17​
5.75​
1278.12​
5.42​
1622.44​
5.33​
2962​
2​
42​
Greece
30​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
1554.13​
5.5​
391.1​
3.3​
929.47​
4.2​
1335.13​
5.03​
1037.36​
6.71​
nan​
nan​
43​
Rome
30​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
1058.93​
6.13​
320.43​
6.47​
769.07​
5.87​
994.03​
6.43​
1214.94​
6.41​
nan​
nan​
* 0 means the civ was eliminated at that point in time, nan means zero samples


Technology Scaling
Spoiler technology scaling :

1665579125695.png



Updated tech costs:

Spoiler target turn values :

EraTarget Turns
Medieval6
Renaissance7
Industrial7
Modern7
Atomic5
Information4
Spaceship (InfoT3)3

Spoiler new tech scaling values :

Code:
-- Medieval Era
UPDATE Technologies SET Cost =   500 WHERE GridX =  5; -- Originally 500
UPDATE Technologies SET Cost =   600 WHERE GridX =  6; -- Originally 700
-- Renaissance Era
UPDATE Technologies SET Cost =  1450 WHERE GridX =  7; -- Originally 1750
UPDATE Technologies SET Cost =  2250 WHERE GridX =  8; -- Originally 2400
-- Industrial Era
UPDATE Technologies SET Cost =  3500 WHERE GridX =  9; -- Originally 3600
UPDATE Technologies SET Cost =  4800 WHERE GridX = 10; -- Originally 5150
-- Modern Era
UPDATE Technologies SET Cost =  7200 WHERE GridX = 11; -- Originally 8100
UPDATE Technologies SET Cost =  9850 WHERE GridX = 12; -- Originally 11000
-- Atomic Era
UPDATE Technologies SET Cost = 10900 WHERE GridX = 13; -- Originally 14500
UPDATE Technologies SET Cost = 13750 WHERE GridX = 14; -- Originally 17700
-- Information Era
UPDATE Technologies SET Cost = 12550 WHERE GridX = 15; -- Originally 21250
UPDATE Technologies SET Cost = 15200 WHERE GridX = 16; -- Originally 26000
UPDATE Technologies SET Cost = 17100 WHERE GridX = 17; -- Originally 27150
-- Future Tech
UPDATE Technologies SET Cost = 19950 WHERE GridX = 18; -- Originally 31700

These are substantially lower than the last iteration for two reasons: first, the target turns were slightly reduced, but more significantly I believe the happiness problems causing less and smaller cities significantly reduced science output, so with the average SPT output being lower across the board so are the recalculated tech costs.

Settings used (everything below no trade events is unchecked):
Spoiler settings :

1665585486156.png



I've also attached the civ winrate data as a csv as last time I had a few requests for it

UPDATE: List of games now included
Spoiler list of games :

VictoryCivVictoryType
Turn​
Civ1Civ2Civ3Civ4Civ5Civ6Civ7Civ8
BrazilCultural
361​
JapanAmericaIndiaGreeceMoroccoDenmarkVeniceBrazil
AustriaDiplomatic
379​
AustriaFranceJapanSwedenThe ZulusThe MayaSpainThe Celts
EgyptCultural
452​
IndiaSwedenEgyptBabylonRussiaThe ZulusCarthageThe Shoshone
MoroccoCultural
390​
The CeltsGreeceRomeMoroccoBabylonFranceThe ShoshoneThe Aztecs
AmericaDiplomatic
401​
The IroquoisMongoliaEnglandSwedenIndonesiaVeniceThe NetherlandsAmerica
KoreaCultural
369​
RussiaFranceThe IroquoisThe MayaGreecePersiaKoreaSweden
VeniceCultural
314​
GermanyThe HunsSonghaiArabiaThe IncaVeniceThe ZulusIndia
The IncaCultural
363​
IndonesiaThe IncaThe OttomansFranceRomeKoreaEnglandAmerica
GermanyScience
430​
The NetherlandsEgyptGermanyCarthageAustriaSpainThe HunsPolynesia
IndiaCultural
424​
GermanySonghaiArabiaKoreaPolandIndiaDenmarkThe Shoshone
SiamDiplomatic
433​
IndonesiaIndiaThe MayaSiamThe IroquoisRussiaGreeceMorocco
PolandCultural
349​
CarthageThe OttomansPolandIndonesiaThe ShoshoneMoroccoRussiaPersia
KoreaCultural
421​
KoreaAmericaFranceBabylonThe MayaEgyptThe ShoshoneByzantium
AustriaDiplomatic
419​
AustriaEgyptArabiaRomeChinaThe ShoshoneVeniceBrazil
EthiopiaCultural
367​
The ZulusAustriaJapanByzantiumPolynesiaSpainThe MayaEthiopia
FranceCultural
458​
RomeFranceAustriaEthiopiaThe ShoshoneThe AztecsSonghaiMorocco
ByzantiumScience
491​
The ZulusSonghaiThe HunsByzantiumGreeceEnglandAustriaThe Iroquois
ChinaCultural
381​
The HunsRomeSiamVenicePersiaPolynesiaFranceChina
GermanyTime
500​
GermanyThe AztecsAmericaSwedenAssyriaPortugalFranceBabylon
The NetherlandsCultural
464​
SiamThe NetherlandsVeniceByzantiumEthiopiaMongoliaAmericaRussia
EthiopiaCultural
379​
The CeltsChinaGreeceEthiopiaCarthageIndiaSpainGermany
ChinaCultural
372​
FrancePersiaSpainKoreaAmericaCarthageThe NetherlandsChina
ArabiaCultural
375​
PolynesiaPersiaArabiaGreeceThe NetherlandsIndiaThe ZulusThe Iroquois
EthiopiaCultural
413​
RussiaByzantiumSonghaiArabiaEthiopiaIndonesiaThe IroquoisJapan
MoroccoCultural
402​
SpainMoroccoPolynesiaRomeIndiaSonghaiIndonesiaMongolia
GermanyDiplomatic
417​
GermanySpainThe AztecsAssyriaBabylonThe CeltsAustriaMorocco
EgyptCultural
365​
FranceKoreaEgyptThe AztecsSpainAmericaEnglandSonghai
BrazilCultural
325​
The AztecsAustriaRussiaEgyptThe IncaKoreaBrazilVenice
EnglandDiplomatic
423​
CarthageSonghaiSpainSiamEnglandByzantiumThe MayaThe Inca
VeniceCultural
338​
SpainRussiaSonghaiSwedenMongoliaVeniceByzantiumThe Celts
The NetherlandsDiplomatic
387​
CarthageThe HunsSwedenThe NetherlandsBabylonPolynesiaGermanyBrazil
ArabiaCultural
333​
BabylonArabiaRomeDenmarkPolynesiaFranceByzantiumSonghai
EthiopiaScience
410​
AustriaRussiaGreecePortugalThe ShoshoneEthiopiaBrazilIndia
ChinaCultural
347​
MongoliaDenmarkEnglandPersiaGreeceSonghaiCarthageChina
BabylonCultural
364​
AustriaRussiaThe CeltsArabiaBabylonPersiaSonghaiThe Ottomans
The IncaCultural
407​
The IroquoisGreecePortugalFranceEthiopiaThe IncaMoroccoThe Zulus
CarthageScience
442​
IndiaThe AztecsThe HunsIndonesiaCarthagePortugalByzantiumAmerica
VeniceDiplomatic
377​
BrazilSwedenThe OttomansPersiaGermanyThe CeltsByzantiumVenice
AustriaCultural
389​
The ZulusAssyriaPolynesiaMongoliaThe IroquoisChinaGreeceAustria
BrazilCultural
349​
DenmarkJapanCarthageBrazilChinaPersiaIndonesiaSiam
JapanCultural
365​
The HunsBabylonCarthageThe IroquoisThe OttomansAssyriaThe AztecsJapan
ArabiaCultural
316​
MoroccoArabiaEthiopiaKoreaThe ZulusBrazilThe IroquoisMongolia
BrazilCultural
365​
BrazilCarthageThe ShoshoneGreeceVenicePortugalPersiaArabia
ArabiaCultural
348​
The HunsRomeArabiaEthiopiaCarthageGreeceJapanAmerica
BrazilCultural
425​
BabylonBrazilRomeThe IncaJapanGermanyThe AztecsThe Netherlands
The MayaCultural
381​
RomeSonghaiAmericaThe AztecsEthiopiaPolynesiaThe MayaMongolia
VeniceCultural
342​
ChinaSpainThe ShoshoneDenmarkThe OttomansThe IncaVeniceSweden
ArabiaCultural
346​
GreecePolynesiaSonghaiCarthageArabiaSpainThe ShoshoneChina
IndonesiaCultural
414​
IndonesiaThe IroquoisAssyriaRussiaRomeThe HunsPortugalVenice
BrazilCultural
356​
SwedenChinaThe OttomansThe MayaBrazilThe NetherlandsIndonesiaGreece
PortugalDiplomatic
423​
EgyptGreeceThe IncaBabylonMongoliaPortugalSpainFrance
The NetherlandsCultural
476​
MongoliaRussiaThe NetherlandsSpainRomeThe AztecsBabylonThe Zulus
MoroccoCultural
353​
SonghaiMoroccoSpainEthiopiaSwedenAmericaIndonesiaSiam
The OttomansDiplomatic
389​
The OttomansPersiaEgyptSwedenThe AztecsPortugalBrazilDenmark
AustriaDiplomatic
372​
VeniceThe CeltsCarthageThe HunsThe IncaEthiopiaAustriaMorocco
The MayaScience
423​
The ShoshoneThe AztecsArabiaThe CeltsEthiopiaThe MayaIndiaDenmark
AustriaDiplomatic
348​
The ZulusAssyriaAustriaPersiaBabylonEgyptFranceArabia
AustriaDiplomatic
466​
ByzantiumThe ZulusCarthageThe IncaBabylonAustriaGreecePolynesia
SiamDiplomatic
385​
SiamGermanyMoroccoThe ZulusSpainSonghaiCarthageChina
The ZulusDiplomatic
399​
The ZulusEthiopiaMoroccoDenmarkThe ShoshoneAssyriaPolandSpain
RussiaScience
422​
SiamEthiopiaChinaRussiaIndiaGermanyGreeceRome
AustriaDiplomatic
373​
AustriaThe AztecsAmericaThe CeltsKoreaEthiopiaGermanyFrance
PersiaCultural
479​
SwedenRussiaDenmarkPersiaThe OttomansThe ZulusGreeceCarthage
PolandCultural
377​
SpainThe NetherlandsArabiaVenicePortugalChinaMoroccoPoland
The MayaCultural
350​
RomeEnglandByzantiumThe MayaCarthageChinaGreeceEgypt
MoroccoCultural
463​
SonghaiThe ZulusPolandVenicePolynesiaThe CeltsChinaMorocco
The IroquoisTime
500​
JapanAssyriaThe ZulusThe IroquoisMongoliaPortugalMoroccoAustria
ByzantiumScience
481​
AssyriaChinaThe MayaEnglandAustriaSpainBrazilByzantium
MoroccoDiplomatic
398​
The ZulusAssyriaThe CeltsThe OttomansEthiopiaArabiaMoroccoThe Netherlands
EthiopiaCultural
365​
MongoliaEthiopiaCarthageThe HunsSiamDenmarkKoreaThe Inca
AssyriaCultural
401​
EthiopiaVeniceGermanySwedenThe ZulusGreeceRussiaAssyria
PolandDiplomatic
411​
The IroquoisAssyriaThe ZulusThe ShoshonePolandCarthagePersiaSiam
VeniceDiplomatic
402​
IndiaPolynesiaVeniceChinaSwedenPersiaIndonesiaAssyria
IndiaCultural
411​
ByzantiumEthiopiaPortugalThe OttomansThe HunsIndiaBrazilPolynesia
The CeltsCultural
356​
FranceThe CeltsDenmarkThe ShoshoneThe IroquoisCarthageEthiopiaThe Ottomans
IndonesiaScience
428​
The IroquoisPolandIndonesiaCarthageBabylonMongoliaGermanyEngland
BrazilCultural
392​
JapanBrazilThe MayaAssyriaAmericaRomeMongoliaThe Zulus
SiamCultural
406​
EthiopiaDenmarkGreeceThe CeltsSiamPolynesiaGermanyEngland
VeniceCultural
443​
SpainAmericaKoreaRomeCarthageVenicePolynesiaThe Inca
AmericaTime
500​
MoroccoSpainCarthageAmericaFranceThe AztecsSiamChina
AustriaDiplomatic
378​
The CeltsIndiaMoroccoGreeceThe IroquoisRomeAustriaKorea
JapanCultural
374​
RomeThe IroquoisJapanThe IncaPortugalEgyptFranceEthiopia
ArabiaCultural
365​
SiamEthiopiaFranceSwedenArabiaPolandBabylonIndonesia
GermanyDiplomatic
441​
SonghaiBabylonGermanyThe IncaKoreaCarthageThe AztecsThe Zulus
AmericaDiplomatic
431​
The MayaEgyptAmericaThe HunsBrazilRomeBabylonThe Iroquois
AustriaDiplomatic
414​
SwedenEthiopiaAustriaVeniceThe ShoshoneSpainPortugalAssyria
VeniceDiplomatic
444​
RomeThe CeltsPersiaByzantiumAmericaThe AztecsSiamVenice
DenmarkDiplomatic
458​
The MayaDenmarkRussiaArabiaRomeEthiopiaGreeceThe Ottomans
The CeltsCultural
425​
VeniceSonghaiArabiaThe CeltsPortugalRomeJapanPoland
AustriaDiplomatic
406​
IndiaKoreaGermanyThe OttomansPortugalThe CeltsThe ZulusAustria
BrazilCultural
389​
EgyptPolynesiaBabylonGermanyKoreaByzantiumThe AztecsBrazil
AustriaDiplomatic
458​
The IroquoisPortugalGreecePolynesiaThe NetherlandsAustriaEnglandThe Celts
GermanyDiplomatic
414​
FranceVeniceGermanyThe IncaByzantiumChinaRomeAmerica
The IroquoisDomination
426​
The IroquoisGermanySiamAmericaThe AztecsSonghaiThe IncaCarthage
The OttomansDiplomatic
413​
PolandThe AztecsCarthageJapanGreeceChinaEthiopiaThe Ottomans
ChinaCultural
348​
EnglandThe IncaChinaPolynesiaSwedenPersiaThe OttomansGreece
JapanScience
432​
The MayaJapanCarthageThe NetherlandsArabiaSwedenKoreaMongolia
EthiopiaCultural
398​
SwedenAmericaRomeEnglandEthiopiaIndonesiaThe IroquoisDenmark
The IncaCultural
475​
PolynesiaThe ZulusThe AztecsPolandCarthageThe IncaRomeMongolia
The IncaCultural
407​
The OttomansRomeThe CeltsSpainSwedenThe IncaVeniceThe Netherlands
EgyptCultural
367​
SpainPolynesiaThe OttomansByzantiumEgyptVeniceGermanySweden
AustriaCultural
412​
EthiopiaAustriaThe OttomansThe HunsThe IroquoisArabiaPolynesiaMongolia
IndonesiaCultural
417​
EthiopiaIndonesiaEnglandCarthageVeniceAssyriaThe ShoshoneThe Maya
VeniceCultural
390​
The ShoshoneRomeThe IroquoisArabiaBabylonRussiaPolandVenice
GermanyCultural
340​
GermanyFranceThe AztecsSpainCarthageSonghaiRomeEngland
ByzantiumDiplomatic
371​
The AztecsBabylonThe CeltsThe MayaThe IroquoisChinaIndiaByzantium
BrazilCultural
402​
IndonesiaEnglandThe AztecsBabylonBrazilGermanyChinaThe Inca
FranceCultural
403​
IndiaByzantiumThe AztecsEthiopiaThe ZulusFranceThe HunsEgypt
SiamDiplomatic
394​
FranceThe MayaJapanPortugalSiamThe ZulusSonghaiIndonesia
AmericaDiplomatic
373​
IndonesiaMongoliaThe CeltsThe ShoshoneAmericaBabylonSonghaiRussia
KoreaCultural
372​
PolynesiaThe ShoshoneKoreaIndonesiaVeniceBabylonThe HunsEngland
GermanyScience
452​
The HunsPolynesiaGreeceSwedenBabylonVeniceGermanyThe Maya
JapanCultural
399​
GreeceEthiopiaPolynesiaDenmarkThe AztecsAustriaRussiaJapan
ArabiaCultural
354​
SonghaiCarthageThe NetherlandsArabiaDenmarkByzantiumThe ShoshoneSweden
The NetherlandsDiplomatic
446​
RomeCarthageByzantiumThe IroquoisAssyriaThe NetherlandsSpainThe Zulus
SonghaiDiplomatic
440​
SonghaiSiamRomePortugalThe ZulusThe IroquoisFranceBabylon
The NetherlandsCultural
426​
ChinaThe NetherlandsPortugalGermanyPersiaThe ZulusThe AztecsEgypt
The MayaDiplomatic
354​
IndiaChinaThe IncaIndonesiaGreeceThe MayaKoreaSweden
SonghaiCultural
400​
FranceSpainMoroccoSonghaiBabylonThe CeltsPolynesiaThe Iroquois

 

Attachments

  • civ_winrate_data.zip
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Very interesting results.

There is another thread about the length of games, which think victories come to soon. The fact Timed victories only accounted for 2.5% of the total seems to confirm this.
Domination victory is always difficult for AI, especially if oceans are involved. I wonder how they would do if played on a Pangaea map.
I must admit to being surprised on the amount of Diplomacy wins, as usually Culture wins the vast majority of times. Is that helped by your changes.
 
Of course Iroquois is the only civ capable of winning Domination, being constantly top tier in score but almost never actually win due to being indecisive as heck.
 
We got a bit more games for our civs numbers, making the margins a little tighter. I think its good to note that only Arabia and Austria were in the top 5 win rates in both runs.
 
Imo probably only Inca, Iroquois and Russia can actually do it (if they don't pick another victory condition first).
I know Iroquis can get a good snowball early on if the terrain allows but Im surprised they manage to go all the way.
Maybe they were close a few times consider the high av score.
Sweden, Zulu and Mongols, all strong human war mongers doing terrible.
Surprised France managed to snipe a CV and even more Denmark grabbing a diplo win.
 
It's no surprise to me that any civ with a UNW had their show go down dramatically this round. Only America both has a UNW and more than 1 victory.

Buildingclass yields like Assyria's 3 :c5science: to libraries on empire, etc. are non-functional this version, and that can potentially be a big part of some civ's power.

It's very interesting to me that not only did Brazil get a substantial nerf this version (lost their 25%:c5culture: on WLTKD), they Rose in the ranking, going from 10th to 2nd overall; from 19% win rate to 50%

It's also interesting that Greece went from 7th to 43; 4 wins to 0. That's probably the most radical fall.
 
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Just a brainstorm of interesting information I think would enhance our understanding of the numbers:

What were the matchups in each game?
Are militant civs storming their neighbors but just flatlining when they have to take over a second continent?
Are winning civs overcoming aggressive neighbors, or do they just avoid being setback while others fall?
What are the [most common] target victories for each civ?
How close are runner-up civs to completing their wins?

As always, thanks for the stats!
 
Just a brainstorm of interesting information I think would enhance our understanding of the numbers:

What were the matchups in each game?
Are militant civs storming their neighbors but just flatlining when they have to take over a second continent?
Are winning civs overcoming aggressive neighbors, or do they just avoid being setback while others fall?
What are the [most common] target victories for each civ?
How close are runner-up civs to completing their wins?

As always, thanks for the stats!
Regarding your first point: that is very easily done, have updated the main post with a summary list of all games
Regarding your other points: they are not very easy to automate the gathering, aggregating, and displaying of the information required for them.
I do keep the last save file from each game to have a replay available, for example the domination victory looked like this:
1665607894187.png


So if something looks of particular interest I can sometimes figure out what's going on, but in general it's time consuming and can only really do for one game at a time

What are the [most common] target victories for each civ?
How close are runner-up civs to completing their wins?
These 2 might be possible to get from parsing AI logs, but I think the first one largely depends on personality weights, and the second I'm not sure how would be meaningfully aggregated


One thing that is easily automatable though is saving a minimap snapshot for each game end, and including it with the summary list - if there's any interest I can implement this for the next batch of games I run
 
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I think a screenshot of the map on turn 2 (after all civ have settled) and at the last turn when the victory happens is enough to tell the story. Which civ started near whom is probably pretty important info for peaceful civ/peaceful victory type.
 
It's no surprise to me that any civ with a UNW had their show go down dramatically this round. Only America both has a UNW and more than 1 victory.

Buildingclass yields like Assyria's 3 :c5science: to libraries on empire, etc. are non-functional this version, and that can potentially be a big part of some civ's power.

It's very interesting to me that not only did Brazil get a substantial nerf this version (lost their 25%:c5culture: on WLTKD), they Rose in the ranking, going from 10th to 2nd overall; from 19% win rate to 50%

It's also interesting that Greece went from 7th to 43; 4 wins to 0. That's probably the most radical fall.
Brazil probably benefitted the most from the happiness changes, that's what seems to best explain its performance. Case in point is how China fell from 2nd to 17th, I suspect that civ started to struggle with excessive city growth.

Those happiness changes may also have made things harder for most warmongers, the bottom of the list has plenty of militaristic civs. The only militaristic civ among the top 10 is Japan, who is also a hybrid cultural civ and one that can win through defensive wars, instead of conquest.
 
Brazil probably benefitted the most from the happiness changes, that's what seems to best explain its performance. Case in point is how China fell from 2nd to 17th, I suspect that civ started to struggle with excessive city growth.
There is another explanation of course....that the various is so high that what we are seeing is just natural variance. Aka china happened to get lucky (or had lucky conditions) in that first set of runs, and didn't in the 2nd. That's why the more we can get the better, it will start to weed out those oddities and give us "truth".
 
Brazil probably benefitted the most from the happiness changes, that's what seems to best explain its performance. Case in point is how China fell from 2nd to 17th, I suspect that civ started to struggle with excessive city growth.

Those happiness changes may also have made things harder for most warmongers, the bottom of the list has plenty of militaristic civs. The only militaristic civ among the top 10 is Japan, who is also a hybrid cultural civ and one that can win through defensive wars, instead of conquest.
AI might not know how to lock growth
 
Brazil probably benefitted the most from the happiness changes, that's what seems to best explain its performance. Case in point is how China fell from 2nd to 17th, I suspect that civ started to struggle with excessive city growth.

Those happiness changes may also have made things harder for most warmongers, the bottom of the list has plenty of militaristic civs. The only militaristic civ among the top 10 is Japan, who is also a hybrid cultural civ and one that can win through defensive wars, instead of conquest.
The other major growth-oriented civ is India, who stayed firmly in his mid-tier spot (19th and 21st). I think we need more games, but if the happiness system was having a large effect then I would expect India and China to move in the same direction.
 
There is another explanation of course....that the various is so high that what we are seeing is just natural variance. Aka china happened to get lucky (or had lucky conditions) in that first set of runs, and didn't in the 2nd. That's why the more we can get the better, it will start to weed out those oddities and give us "truth".
The sample size is large enough that we can construct pretty reasonable confidence intervals* - ex. Brazils 95% confidence interval (using Wilson interval scoring criterion) for true winrate is [0.2903 , 0.7097], well above the expected .125.

Similarly, China's 95% CI is [0.06403 , 0.3465] (last patches data yields [0.1416 , 0.556]) - suggesting a shift from above average winrate to average winrate that is unlikely to be explained by random chance alone (although there is still a decent chance the true winrate did not change if it is in fact between 14%-35%)

* This also makes the dubious assumption that a civs win/loss outcome is Binomially distributed ~ Winrate, of course this doesn't tell the whole story, but it's a reasonable simplification that usually does quite well in practice
 
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The sample size is large enough that we can construct pretty reasonable confidence intervals* - ex. Brazils 95% confidence interval (using Wilson interval scoring criterion) for true winrate is [0.2903 , 0.7097], well above the expected .125.

* This also makes the dubious assumption that a civs win/loss outcome is Binomially distributed ~ Winrate, of course this doesn't tell the whole story, but it's a reasonable simplification that usually does quite well in practice
Not sure if I agree with that. Binomial distributions assume that every trial has the same probability of success....and that is not really true in a scenario where every game has extreme differences in map generation, civs, etc. Now if you were to run the same exact civs on the same exact map and run it X times....than I think a binomial distribution approximation makes sense. Of course my knowledge of stats is limited enough I'm not sure what would be better.

You make a fair point that at that confidence interval brazil is a good bit higher than your "standard" win rate of 1 in 8 games (assuming 8 civs with equal chance to win), even if we assume your interval is not as tight due to diverge from a binomial model.
 
Not sure if I agree with that. Binomial distributions assume that every trial has the same probability of success....and that is not really true in a scenario where every game has extreme differences in map generation, civs, etc. Now if you were to run the same exact civs on the same exact map and run it X times....than I think a binomial distribution approximation makes sense. Of course my knowledge of stats is limited enough I'm not sure what would be better.

You make a fair point that at that confidence interval brazil is a good bit higher than your "standard" win rate of 1 in 8 games (assuming 8 civs with equal chance to win), even if we assume your interval is not as tight due to diverge from a binomial model.

Yea, in reality of course you'd have a crazy compound distribution with covariates like map, adjacent civs, barb spawns, etc - fortunately there is a great statistical theorem called the central limit theorem, which basically says regardless of what your distribution is if you take enough samples the sample mean will be normally distributed - an important distinction to be made here is that it isn't the game result that is normally distributed, but rather the distribution governing the average game result (i.e. winrate) that is normally distributed.
This theorem is very nice for constructing confidence intervals because we no longer care about what the underlying distribution is, only that we have enough samples to estimate the winrate distribution, which is always normally distributed when n is large enough. Now we no longer have to estimate a binomial parameter p, we just have to compute the sample mean and sample standard deviation which will us enough about the distribution governing likely winrates that could have produced those samples

What does that mean for the civ winrate analysis? Well, take for example Venices performance - assuming a binomial outcome the 95% CI for winrate is [0.1525 , 0.4706]
Making no assumption about distribution and only using sample mean and sample variance via C.L.T, the 95% CI for average outcome (winrate) is [0.118 , 0.453]

Which is pretty close! In academia the number usually used for minimum required samples before applying C.L.T is 30, and Venice only has 28 games, but it still goes to show that the binomial assumption isn't terrible. Ideally of course all the civs have well over 30 games but that's hard to do when my computers are running 4UC games now

I'm also mostly done putting together the setup+running steps for running the automation, will have that posted in relatively short order so maybe will have more games if some members of the community contribute
 
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