2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season hits the ground running...

[Evie]

As it stands, the predicted hit on Yucatan looks more like a grazing blow - not going to be nearly enough, not when it can strengthen again

As for Dean's projected path into Texas - don't forget it will have begun a slow Northward turn by then. Extrapolating from the current track probably brings us closer to Corpus Christi, but really it's far too early to say.

 

[Mango]

Hmm, first hurricane season begins at a near record date.

Then it takes till the middle of August for us to get a real good hurricane forming and we get hit with 3 storms almost in succession.

That's just weird.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Why the heck are all the uber vomit: i hate it when people use that word) liberal people in this thread hoping that there will be another horrible hurricane season?

I just can't stand this kind of reasoning. If you try to warn people that this might happen, you are not hoping that it happens. When the uber (sorry, but I have to make a comparisson to your quote ) neocons are warning us for terrorist attack, they are not wishing for more terrorist attacks. When the uber hippies are saying to many people are going to die in the war in Iraq, they do not wish for people to die in Iraq.

When my mother warned me to watch out when I cross the street, she didn't hope I get hit by a car, just so she could say: told you so.

There's a difference between hoping the best and expecting the worst.

 

[EdwardTking]

Why the heck are all the uber vomit: i hate it when people use that word) liberal people in this thread hoping that there will be another horrible hurricane season?

I don't.

But maybe that is only because the more extreme rightist neocons live inland.


Thanks to global warming hurricane damage in the Philippines has gone up.

 

[Quasar1011]

HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE EARLIER TODAY
INDICATED THAT DEAN REACHED 110 KNOTS. NEXT PLANE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH DEAN AROUND 00 UTC TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW
AN EYE FEATURE...NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS
WHICH ARE STILL AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. ALTHOUGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DUE TO EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN LOW AND THE OCEAN TEMPERATURE INCREASES WESTWARD. THIS
WOULD CALL FOR AN OVERALL UPWARD INTENSITY TREND. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE SHIPS....GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS. THE
STEERING PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WESTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THIS
PATTERN WOULD MAINTAIN DEAN OVER THE CARIBBEAN ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN YUCATAN AND THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE GFDL SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS
OUTSIDE THE OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IT CAN NOT BE RULE
OUT COMPLETELY SINCE THIS MODEL HAS AN EXCELLENT FORECAST TRACK
HISTORY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ALL INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/2100Z 15.0N 64.5W 110 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 15.5N 67.4W 115 KT
24HR VT 18/1800Z 16.4N 70.8W 120 KT
36HR VT 19/0600Z 17.3N 74.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 77.0W 130 KT
72HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 84.0W 130 KT
96HR VT 21/1800Z 22.0N 90.0W 100 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 22/1800Z 24.5N 96.0W 105 KT

---------------------------------------

By the way, 130 knots is category 4 hurricane strength. Yesterday, the NHC had Dean's path moving just south of Jamaica; today's official forecast track has it moving right over Jamaica. If this occurs, it ought to happen around noon on Sunday. Jamaica could get hit by a category 3 or 4 hurricane...

 

[Evie]

Dean is already a Category 4 hurricane by now.

 

[skadistic]

Why heck are all the uber conservative people in this thread trying to "debunk" the prediction that there will be greater potential for hurricanes this season?

Personally I don't hold much stock in the predictions. Remember last years predictions? Remember how the season didn't live up to 1/20th of what was predicted? And they just recently lowered the predictions for this year.

 

[bhsup]

I don't.

But maybe that is only because the more extreme rightist neocons live inland.

*looks around* By golly, you're right! Not an ocean in sight for a thousand miles...

 

[Evie]

Skad - yes, lowered them from 13-17 to 13-16 storm, without a change to the prediction for major hurricanes. That's not exactly a dramatic change.

 

[Ansar]

I want some hurricanes this year!

 

[The Yankee]

I want some hurricanes this year!

You want to be the next Dan Rather?

Rather: By golly, this storm's kicking up more dust than your Aunt Sally's porcupine fighting contest!

Rest of America: WTFBBQbaconbits?

 

[Lord Dom]

i'm from houston, and i can tell ya'll that the ground here is so saturated that even a tropical store hitting near will cause big problems.

 

[skadistic]

Skad - yes, lowered them from 13-17 to 13-16 storm, without a change to the prediction for major hurricanes. That's not exactly a dramatic change.

But its a change that shows they aren't sure. Still there was last year. "The worse year ever!" They said. It was only bad for Georgia Pacific with low plywood sales. It wasn't supposed to rain at all today but it did. I'm not saying that there will be no major storms I'm just saying the NOAH and NSFW don't exactly have a stellar track record since the "global warming" trip started in mass.

 

[Ansar]

You want to be the next Dan Rather?

Not really.

I don't think he gets many girls with that attitude.

 

[Evie]

Worst year ever was media hype, not the forecasters themselves (actually, the NHC forecasts for 2007 were higher than those for 2006).

As for "not being sure", they cannot be sure of the exact number, obviously - and that's why they (the NHC) give their numbers as an expected range.

Minor tweaking of that expected range should not be blown out of proportion, and that is exactly what you are doing. 13 to 16 and 13 to 17 storms is an insignificant difference ; particularly when the forecasts remain at 3 to 5 major hurricanes, and all it take is one of them (see also : Dean) making landfall where it shouldn't to make a season hell.

 

[FriendlyFire]

Hurricane Dean has intensified to a category four system with winds up to 215kmh, US hurricane monitors said as the devastating storm blasted across the Caribbean.

The massive storm ploughed through the eastern Caribbean on a direct course for Jamaica and the tourist-heavy tip of the Yucatan peninsula after battering the Lesser Antilles before dawn Friday with heavy rains and winds gusting over 170kmh, according to reports from Martinique.

Doh Why cant they all go to texas ?
It is named DEAN after all !!!

 

[Quasar1011]

I'm going to open a separate thread for Dean. It's expected to become a cat 5 hurricane after smashing into Jamaica.

 

[MobBoss]

Well, I was sitting here thinking, boy, havent heard much about hurricanes lately, I wonder what the status is for the year.

Well, here it is. http://www.weatherstreet.com/hurricane/2007/Hurricane-Atlantic-2007.htm

Unless something happens, we may actually have fewer hurricanes this year than we did last year....despite predictions of a much worse hurricane season this year.

So...was this hurricane season over-hyped much like last years because of the record setting 2005 season.......or do we still have a lot to learn about how such things work?

Please comment.

 

[Atlas14]

Well, I was sitting here thinking, boy, havent heard much about hurricanes lately, I wonder what the status is for the year.

Well, here it is. http://www.weatherstreet.com/hurricane/2007/Hurricane-Atlantic-2007.htm

Unless something happens, we may actually have fewer hurricanes this year than we did last year....despite predictions of a much worse hurricane season this year.

So...was this hurricane season over-hyped much like last years because of the record setting 2005 season.......or do we still have a lot to learn about how such things work?

Please comment.

I'd say a bit of both. Clearly weather does not always follow strict, predictable patterns. There are so many factors that have to be taken into account when trying to accurately predict stuff like this, that such predictions shouldn't be taken overly seriously in the first place.

 

[skadistic]

Well we still have a few months to go.