2011 MLB Thread

I went to my first Cubs game last night against the Rockies. I can certainly see the old timey charm of Wrigley (it's refreshing to not hear piped in Rock Music reminding people when to cheer, the seats were great, etc)...but it was hard to get over 1) how it was cold as balls outside, and 2) the Cubs looked awful.

I have never seen a Major League team lose a game like that. The Rockies only had 4 hits (and only one extra base hit), but they gave up 5 runs thanks to a mind boggling 4 errors. Castro, supposedly the best position player on the Cubs these days, had 4 of them. If I was Matt Garza, I'd take him out behind the clubhouse and break his nose.
 
It might be time to issue a missing persons' report for the Phillies offense. 14 straight games without scoring more than 4 runs, longest such streak since 30 years ago. Polanco had 2 hits last night and Jimmy Rollins hit was an infield hit that most good 2nd baseman would have turned into an out.
 
I went to my first Cubs game last night against the Rockies. I can certainly see the old timey charm of Wrigley (it's refreshing to not hear piped in Rock Music reminding people when to cheer, the seats were great, etc)...but it was hard to get over 1) how it was cold as balls outside, and 2) the Cubs looked awful.

I have never seen a Major League team lose a game like that. The Rockies only had 4 hits (and only one extra base hit), but they gave up 5 runs thanks to a mind boggling 4 errors. Castro, supposedly the best position player on the Cubs these days, had 4 of them. If I was Matt Garza, I'd take him out behind the clubhouse and break his nose.

That was rough, Castro had 3 errors (all in the same innings) not 4, Garza had the other one. Castro had been coming along defensively this year, but that was a pretty big hiccup. He's got great range, a great arm, and soft hands at times, so I definitely think he will become a good defensive shortstop in the future. He's the youngest player in baseball so there's going to be some rough spots.

I'm not worried about him offensively. He's still leading baseball in hits and displaying
an outstanding ability to get the barrel of the bat on the ball. He has an amazing 92.1 contact percentage (% of contact made when swinging at all pitches).
 
I'm not worried about him offensively. He's still leading baseball in hits

No, he's not. Matt Kemp leads the majors in hits with 36 right now. Casto is second with 35 though.... ;)
 
That was rough, Castro had 3 errors (all in the same innings) not 4, Garza had the other one. Castro had been coming along defensively this year, but that was a pretty big hiccup. He's got great range, a great arm, and soft hands at times, so I definitely think he will become a good defensive shortstop in the future. He's the youngest player in baseball so there's going to be some rough spots.

I'm not worried about him offensively. He's still leading baseball in hits and displaying
an outstanding ability to get the barrel of the bat on the ball. He has an amazing 92.1 contact percentage (% of contact made when swinging at all pitches).
You're right, that was a typo. It should have been 3 errors instead of 4. Garza had the deciding error I suppose, but Casto's mistakes were pretty inexcusable. Those throws didn't even look that close.
 
Strangely enough saw an article on mlb.com posted today that says the same things about closers/bullpen that I mentioned a few days ago:

If Jim Leyland were to set his lineup in order to maximize the number of home runs Miguel Cabrera hits, he'd be hooted out of Detroit. If Charlie Manuel worried more about Roy Halladay's individual win total than the Phillies' team win total, he wouldn't have a job.

Yet a culture has developed around one individual stat to the extent that some managers and pitching coaches sometimes seem to focus as much on that number as on winning a game. That statistic is the save. The culture of saves has changed baseball strategies and tactics, and not for the better.

The save rule unilaterally decrees that the most important outs of the game are the final outs. Sometimes, that's the case, but often a game hinges on at-bats in the eighth inning or even the seventh. And too many managers worry more about having their best reliever available for a ninth-inning lead that may not exist if they don't get through the eighth.

Cardinals manager Tony La Russa, along with his longtime pitching coach Dave Duncan, is credited by many with being the father of modern bullpen usage. For La Russa, it's not the save rule that drives decision-making, it's a belief that the ninth inning is simply a different animal, no matter the circumstances.

"If the closer is rested and you've got the middle of the lineup in the eighth, I'd pitch the closer in the eighth," said La Russa, who brought in his de facto closer Mitchell Boggs for one out in the eighth just Friday night. "He should have an easier time with the bottom of the lineup in the ninth. But you can't just pick somebody and say, 'OK, you've got the ninth inning,' and have the same expectancy of winning. Because the ninth is different."

But is it always?

Which is tougher to protect -- a three-run lead with Nos. 7-8-9 in the order coming up with the bases empty in the ninth? Or a one- or two-run advantage in the eighth, against the heart of the batting order?

Obviously, it's often not that cut-and-dried. And sometimes it's the other way around. Sometimes the toughest situation comes in the ninth. When that's the case, the best thing to do is to use your best pitcher.

It's rarely that clear, though. And when it's not, managers should be willing to bend the rules. The mindset tends to be, if you use your closer -- theoretically your best reliever -- before the ninth, then you have to use him through the ninth. But that's not etched in stone -- or at least it shouldn't be.

"If you've got a bunch of left-handed hitters and you've got a left-handed reliever, you might get your closer in the eighth inning and the left-hander gets them in the ninth," La Russa said. "I've done that before, with [Rick] Honeycutt. But the bullpen works when guys have, as best you can, identified roles, and you pitch them to their roles."

Either way, you need quality pitchers to have an effective bullpen. When the Red Sox floated the idea of a closer-by-committee in 2003, it was misconstrued in some quarters. The idea, critics said, was that anybody could protect a lead in the ninth inning, and that anybody could be plugged in the bullpen. That was just a straw man, though.

You need at least one top-quality pitcher -- and ideally more, with varying skill sets -- for any bullpen to work. The idea is simply that when you have a great pitcher, sometimes you waste him by pitching him in situations in which another pitcher would give you very nearly as much of a chance to win. And sometimes you lose out by not using him in a critical situation, such as a tie game in the ninth inning on the road, or with a star hitter batting with men on base in the seventh or eighth.

Then there are more granular tactical concerns. From the fifth or sixth through the eighth, managers match up their relievers. They look for the platoon advantage. They consider ground-ball versus fly-ball tendencies. If they need a strikeout, they'll go to a strikeout pitcher.

Then the ninth comes, and all of that is out the window. A closer with a platoon split can face a series of batters who hit from the opposite side. A fly-ball pitcher can face a power-packed part of the lineup in a cozy ballpark during a game in which a solo home run could cost you the lead. These are moves that managers would avoid earlier, but the ninth belongs to the closer, no matter what.

It doesn't have to be that way, and it shouldn't.

None of these decisions are made in a vacuum, of course. It's not a Strat-O-Matic game. The manager makes decisions regarding players he'll have to face in the clubhouse a little later. Some pitchers have been conditioned to feel that it's not their job to come in a game with runners on base. They develop habits, then, that make it difficult to succeed with men on -- becoming slow to the plate, for example.

And then there's the big issue: dollars. Jose Valverde signed for $7 million per season to be Detroit's closer. Joaquin Benoit, coming off a better year, got about three-quarters that per year to be the Tigers' setup man. The guys who get the saves get the dollars. And the guys who get the dollars get the saves.

"The difference is that you never have anybody behind you as the closer," said former big league closer, setup man and starter Braden Looper. "When you go out there as the closer, good, bad or indifferent, that's it. That's the difference. ... Other than that, it's pretty much the same. The only other difference is that you don't get a save in the eighth."

It's not that anybody can close, or that it doesn't matter who pitches the ninth. The point is simply that sometimes, the game is won and lost before the ninth. And when the game is on the line, you need to have your best pitchers and players in the game.

http://houston.astros.mlb.com/news/...26&content_id=18267988&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb
 
454901.jpg


the horrors! it's true! Charlie Sheen Bails Lenny Dykstra From the Klink
 
johnny oates claimed to have invented the closer? :lol: he was a funny man.

No, he's saying that Jerome Holtzman created the closer, by dint of creating the save statistic. As soon as you have a measure for elite relievers, then the elite relievers (and their agents) will want to be able to maximise that stat. It's a pretty common problem in IT and process engineering (and, if you remember the term, Operational Research) - if you create a poor metric, you shape behaviours towards maximising the metric, not towards maximising the genuinely desired end result.

Which is just a clumsy way of repeating the stuff Strider just posted...

Anyway, El J, what's up with your man Lee ? Just unlucky so far ? Not that he's doing badly, but the numbers and end result just aren't like Cliff, you know ?
 
The cubs are a mountain of errors and bad baseball. From soriano letting balls through his legs in the outfield, to castro unable to pick the ball up at short, from pena not hitting his weight in Kilo's to our high starting pitcher ERA (in another "Year of the pitcher"). We are a team I only pay attention to anymore due to the car accident style of "baseball" we put out there.

Man I miss Santo. He always knew just how I felt.


@Danny Castro gets crazy contact! He is like a little Vlad Guerrero out there!
 
i never asked the cubs fans here about Sandberg going back to the phils as the AAA mgr. the local scribes have waxed nostalgic about his return. and there are hints that he may even succeed charlie manuel in a few years. he's received some good remarks in the local papers, too.

@Lambert
oh, i know of holtzman. he is a renowned baseball scribe. agreed 100% on the poor metric. it is a little askew nowadays. re Clifton Phifer :lol: yes, he looks human. imo, he hasn't been hitting his spots with the regularity he's accustomed to. phils sleepy offense also hasn't helped him. he's done ok on the whole, but surely not at maximum output.
 
Well, Boggs blew a save for the Cards, so I guess it's back to the drawing board for LaRussa and Duncan... :rolleyes:
 
Well, Boggs blew a save for the Cards, so I guess it's back to the drawing board for LaRussa and Duncan... :rolleyes:

:evil:

9-14 isn't bad, considering our best pitcher at this point might be Brett Meyers. Three of our other starters (Happ, Rodriguez, Figueroa) have an ERA above 5.
 
In good news for the Phils, they reached double digits in hits for last night's game and scored 5 runs. In bad news, Oswalt didn't look good and there is growing concern that his back might be more tweaked than is comfortable for him to pitch well.

Ben Francisco hit a home run, now roughly on pace to hit 28 and increase shoe consumption by an individual who's a Cleveland fan.
 
Was bored last night so I compiled this for the NL based on each teams Pythagorean record (runs scored vs runs allowed):

Spoiler :
NL EAST:

Florida Marlins:
13-9 (15-7 Actual)

Philadelphia Phillies:
14-9 (15-8 Actual)

Atlanta Braves:
14-11 (12-13 actual)

Washington Nationals:
10-12 (10-12 Actual)

New York Mets:
11-12 (10-13 Actual)

NL Central:
St. Louis Cardinals:
14-9 (12-11 Actual)

Milwaukee Brewers:
13-10 (12-11 Actual)

Cincinnati Reds:
14-10 (12-12 Actual)

Chicago Cubs
:
9-14 (10-13 Actual)

Pittsburgh Pirates:
9-14 (10-13 Actual)

Houston Astros:
9-14 (9-14 Actual)

NL West:

Colorado Rockies:
14-9 (16-7 Actual)

San Francisco Giants:
11-11 (11-11 Actual)

Los Angeles Dodgers:
11-14 (12-13 Actual)

Arizona Diamondbacks:
10-12 (10-12 Actual)

San Diego Padres:

10-14 (9-15 Actual)

This isn't perfect; IE it does not take into account strength of schedule or matchups, but it does give you an idea of how many runs a team scores vs how many it allows. A team that scores more runs than it allows will have a winning record and one that allows more runs than it scores will have a losing one. The Pythagorean record usually finishes the season only about 3 games off of a teams actual record.

It's a bit early in the season thus far, but this usually gives you a good idea of which teams are currently over-performing and which ones are under-performing. Both the Marlins and the Rockies are a full 2 wins above what they would have; which is actually quite a bit this early in the season. The Reds, Cardinals, and Braves are all two wins below their estimated record

Pythagorean Record said:
Pythagorean winning percentage is an estimate of a team's winning percentage given their runs scored and runs allowed. Developed by Bill James, it can tell you when teams were a bit lucky or unlucky. It is calculated by

(Runs Scored)^1.83
---------------------------------------------------------
(Runs Scored)^1.83 + (Runs Allowed)^1.83

Some other interesting tidbits:
  • The NL Central dominates the offensive categories. Cincinnitti, St. Louis, and Milwaukee all appear in the top 5.
  • The phillies are the 'oldest' NL team with the average batters age at 32.2. The average is 29.2.
  • The Padres and Astros, two of the worst teams this year, are both leading the league in triples.
  • The cubs lead the league in total strikeouts (the good ones).
  • The Marlins lead the league in fewest number of hits allowed.
  • Florida is the only team with a team ERA below 3.00 (they have 2.98).
  • The top 5 in team era are in this order: Florida, San Diego, Atlanta, St. Louis, and Philadelphia.
  • Only 5 teams have pitched complete game shutouts (STL, PHI, MIL, COL, and ARZ) with only one team (STL) doing it twice.
  • Kyle McClellan is the only SP that every game he has started his team has won.
  • Five pitchers have thrown Quality starts in every game pitched (Quality start is 6 or more inning pitched and 3 or less earned runs allowed): Kyle McClellan(STL), Josh Johnson(FLA), Jason Marquis(WSH), Jair Jurrjens (ATL), and Dustin Moseley(SDP).
  • Seven pitchers have yet to throw a quality start. Among those are three Cubs and Ubaldo Jimenez
 
No they're not - they are actually 10-13, and "should be" 11-12. They still suck.

Strider, it's interesting stuff, but I do think you're focusing on the stats which show how good the Cardinals are (at the risk of going all ElJ on you... :mischief:). Didn't mention the top 5 teams for blown saves, did you ?
 
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