2011 MLB Thread

[El Justo]

10 years is indeed nuts. if i were a bettin' man, i'd say that the total years of any potential albert deal will come down to, say, 7 or 8 years. otoh, if there is any player in the game that can take that type of bargaining stance, it's albert. not that i agree with it but from a contractual pov, it isn't a big surprise.

 

[downtown]

I bet the Cardinals make more money if they sign Puhols to a 10 year deal, compared to what will happen if he walks.

From a competitive standpoint though, I doubt it's smart to give him more than 7.

 

[illram]

If Cards fans are supposed to be the knowledgeable "smart" baseball fans everyone always makes them out to be, they should know a crap deal when they see one, and giving ten years at big money each year to a guy who probably should be DH'ing in about six or seven is unwise.

It's bad management to make these sweetheart deals for big names--there are numerous wise, objective ways to make a sound player valuation standard for contracts and good teams stick to them. (Albeit occasionally screwing that up too.)

 

[Strider]

If Cards fans are supposed to be the knowledgeable "smart" baseball fans everyone always makes them out to be, they should know a crap deal when they see one, and giving ten years at big money each year to a guy who probably should be DH'ing in about six or seven is unwise.

It's bad management to make these sweetheart deals for big names--there are numerous wise, objective ways to make a sound player valuation standard for contracts and good teams stick to them. (Albeit occasionally screwing that up too.)

Ideally (assuming were not in contention this season) were be able to trade him off for a ton of awesome prospects, but that appears to be out of the picture. Shelby Miller, Garcia, and Wainwright are a good pitching core for the years to come (assuming wainwright comes back to his old level).

 

[El Justo]

we can vent about the monstrosity of ten year Ks, $30M salaries but the fact is that the market will dictate it all and there's someone out there that will give him what he wants. it's the natural progression of things despite our consensus that it's outrageous.

addit: phils release former met castillo

 

[downtown]

I don't follow the Cards much, but maybe one of you guys can answer this. How old is the rest of the Card's core? Are they in win-now mode? Do they think they have the prospects and juice to win a title (or the NL) in the next 5-6 years if he walks?

Hypothetical, lets say they give him the gazillion dollar, 10 year deal, and the Cards win a title in year 4 of the contract...then they blow up the team are remain quasi-uncompetitive for the duration of the deal. Is that worth it?

 

[El Justo]

not a cards fan but they have an ok nucleus. holliday in LF is a stud and him and pujols together for multi-years is a nice combo. rasmus in center is nice too but not a red light guy like the other two. pitching looks good despite losing wainwright. pitching coach dave duncan might be the best in the game. i know i like to snag cards pitchers in our fantasy leagues, the buy low method and all that. nl central is usually up for grabs each year so i think that the cards would be competitive if albert walked but it would be devastating in other ways. holliday would never see a strike, ever. can't see them tanking completely though. not much has been said, though, about larussa possibly retiring after this season. maybe albert has that in his pocket? would be interesting to see if larussa stays or goes. if he goes, i would expect at least some fall-off.

 

[Strider]

Wainwright was a huge blow, but assuming he'll be fine after this season the rotation looks pretty strong. Without Pujols the lineup looks to center on Rasmus, Freese, Craig, Jay, and Holliday which is also a fairly solid young core to build on. I'm fairly certain that if Freese has injury free year he's going to hit like a beast and I expect Rasmus to up his numbers slightly. I may be optimistic, but I think Kyle McClellan is going to blow a lot of people away. He's a career starter who gets moved up to the big leagues as a reliever for a few years before being switching back to the rotation. Remind you of anyone? A certain reliever who closed the 2006 world series?

If he can prove me right I absolutely love the Wainwright, Garcia, Miller, McClellan rotation in another two or three years.

 

[El Justo]

what are they saying in the papers in st louis about larussa's future?

 

[Strider]

what are they saying in the papers in st louis about larussa's future?

Absolutely nothing. Our 3rd base coach will probably take over if he leaves though and TBH he's a pretty damn good replacement. I'm more scared to see the wizard (Duncan) go, but we have him signed for 3 years.

 

[El Justo]

who is the 3B coach?

 

[Scratch]

It'd be nice to see Tony Larussa, micromanager extraordinaire, retire.

 

[El Justo]

he's not a real likable, dude, right

 

[dgfred]

AL East: Boston
AL Central: Minnesota
AL West: Oakland
Wild Card: New York Yankees

NL East: Philadelphia
NL Central: St. Louis
NL West: San Francisco
Wild Card: Atlanta

World Series: Philadelphia over Boston

Nice picks Darkness. I feel almost exactly the same way, except I suspect the White Sox to challenge the Twins/ Angels the A's (love that pick tho)/Brewers the Cards/ and the Rockies the Giants. Looking forward to the season!

 

[schlaufuchs]

@Owen
cliff lee, well, don't hate. he's a beast. peripheral stats are off the chart. comparing him to zito is a joke and shows you aren't thinking clearly. and espn? what are you talking about? that is my take. don't insinuate that i'm ripping material from somewhere else. i study this stuff, you know. 4th or 5th starter on the giants staff can you hear me laughing from here?! you should insert foot in mouth right about now!

This is ignoring, of course that he had absolutely unspectacular statistics last season?

I mean 12-9 doesn't by any stretch of the imagination sound like a top tier pitcher to me. Lincecum had by all accounts the worst season he's had since he came up to the big leagues and he still managed to win 15 games.

Oh and before you start saying that it was because he spent half the year on the worst team in baseball, do note that he performed better on the Mariners than he did on the Rangers.

As for my ESPN comment, it does follow the East Coast bias trend. The Giants quite simply have the best pitching staff in the Majors right now. Halladay may be the best pitcher, but as a whole I'd take Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, and Sanchez over Halladay, Oswalt, Hamels, and Lee any day, and that's not to mention our spectacular relief squad. As for hitting, Posey's still awesome, Huff will be great if he puts up the same numbers, Sandoval is a thousand times better than he was last year, Sanchez is healthy, Belt is probably going to be the next Posey, etc. etc. If anything, we're even stronger this year than we are last year. I think the Rockies are going to be really good this year, and West and Wild Card will be a toss up between the two West teams.

 

[El Justo]

bubbly must not have worn off since that parade, huh? you're a homer, bro. where's your objectivity? perhaps it's at the courthouse where douche bag bonds is being strung up at? let me pull some cliff lee stats for you since you are not inclined to discuss anything other than wins and losses and that loser barry zito

2010 stats --
3.18 era in the rugged and dh-laden AL. not shabby. 7 CGs. again, not shabby. 18 walks issued all year long in 212 1/3 IP. ridiculous. he gave up 185 hits. so this equals a whip of 1.003 which is off the charts by any standard. find me a whip that low by a starting pitcher and i'll put him in the same league as lee. that is a herculean number by any stretch. a .08 BB/9 rate. you're kidding, right? and the most impressive of them all: a 10.28 K/BB ratio. insanity. lump in the 185 Ks and what do we have? hmm...a 4th or 5th starter on a team that got hot last october and rode the cody ross wave to a championship? i think not. he is actually the no2 on the best team in the National League and behind the best pitcher in the universe and reigning CYA winner.

cliff lee at baseball-reference.com

 

[illram]

We will all be able to put our money where our mouth is at the CFC draft. Owen, would you ride Zito over Lee on your fantasy squad this year? Or even Sanchez over Halladay? I certainly would not.

 

[schlaufuchs]

We will all be able to put our money where our mouth is at the CFC draft. Owen, would you ride Zito over Lee on your fantasy squad this year? Or even Sanchez over Halladay? I certainly would not.

Zito over Lee? Maybe :3.

I never said Sanchez was better than Halladay. Halladay is unequivocally the best Starting Pitcher in the leagues right now, arguably of this generation. That being said, the rest of the pitchers on the staff are mediocre to disgustingly overrated. I'd take Halladay over any pitcher on the Giants staff. But I'd take the Giants staff over the Phillies staff any day of the week.

Oh yeah, illram: did you hear Romo picked up a change? He might actually become a damned good reliever now

 

[illram]

Well I might take the Freak over anyone, I think he is freakishly amazing. He reminds me of my favorite pitcher ever, Pedro Martinez, in that he is small and seemingly lacking the body type of a dominant pitcher, but just possesses some really funky pitches that makes him a stud. He lacks Pedro's complete balls out I don't give a **** attitude though.

With his body though he will probably abruptly stop being good at some point when he is older, rather than the big, tall aces who gradually fade out of existence. Which is why I think Bumgarner is the sleeper ace on that staff.

Romo will probably get the ball in the 9th while Wilson is out. His beard is scary enough that people won't notice. I bet that dude has trouble getting on planes for away games.

 

[downtown]

I'm sorry, but on no planet are Oswalt and Hamels (not to mention Lee, who has been amazing the last two seasons, not withstanding some early struggles once he first got traded to Texas) mediocre. Any of those three guys would be the ace for half of the national league.

I ain't got no dog in this hunt, i'm an Indians fan. The Giants have a very good staff, but the Phillies, on paper, is freakin' historic. Its maybe a peg below the 1995 Braves for the best staff in our lifetimes.