2016 NCAA football thread

[tetley]

As long as people worship football, it's still better than high school. The winner of districts goes on to state, the state champion goes on to nationals. The loser doesn't get to play at all.

The double-elimination of the college world series is better, but football just doesn't have that option.

 

[ummmm........]

Yeah, the Big XII's round robin is the closest thing CFB has to a true champion crowned on the field, but it's a necessary limitation given the number of teams and brutality of the game . . .

 

[Commodore]

That happens sometimes: two better teams face early, and the winner faces a not-as-good team next.

Yeah, we saw that in the 2014 playoff. Everyone knows the semi-final game between Ohio State and Alabama was the real title game that year.

 

[ummmm........]

It was certainly the most memorable of those three games, at least. Kind of like how USA/Russia wasn't actually the gold medal game in 1980 . . .

 

[Commodore]

Ah, you know Alabama would have beaten Oregon just as bad as Ohio State did.

 

[ummmm........]

Idk, maybe not if our offense played as poorly as we did against Ohio State . . .

Here's a fairly interesting NYT article about the explosion in enrollment and prestige Alabama the school has enjoyed over the same period that the football team has seen its resurgence. Not a football article per se, but still relevant in a CFB thread, I think . . .

 

[tetley]

It was certainly the most memorable of those three games, at least. Kind of like how USA/Russia wasn't actually the gold medal game in 1980 . . .

Or the CFL this year. The Western Division final will be the toughest. The winner takes on a team that's close to .500 for the Grey Cup.

 

[Commodore]

Idk, maybe not if our offense played as poorly as we did against Ohio State . . .

Oregon had absolutely no defense that year, so even a mediocre offense would have been able to hang 30+ points on them. I mean, look at the abysmal offensive performance FSU had against them and they still managed to put up 20 points. Ohio State also played very sloppy and even turned the ball over several times and still hung 42 points on them. So even with a poor offensive performance, Alabama would have crushed Oregon simply because of Oregon's paper-thin defense.

 

[ummmm........]

So, Navy beat ND, Miss State is up by fourteen over A&M, everything is going according to the script, right . . ?

 

[Commodore]

Navy beating Notre Dame is according to the script. Notre Dame is absolutely awful this season and probably will not make a bowl game. Navy, on the other hand, is probably the most dominant team in the American right now. Anyone who thought Notre Dame was winning that game was delusional.

Michigan State continues their downward spiral into the toilet by losing to Illinois and officially being eliminated from bowl eligibility this year. Seriously, this is just absolutely embarrassing. I don't care how many injuries they have or how young their team is (the two excuses Dantonio is using right now), there is absolutely no excuse for a playoff team from last season to be sitting at 2-7 overall and winless in conference play. This is exactly why I hate that the sports media pumps these teams up just because they have one or two good years. They have those good seasons, the media pumps them up, and all of a sudden these teams think they deserve to be treated like the truly elite programs and cry when they don't get treated "equally". Well, this is why they don't get the favored treatment that programs like Ohio State and Alabama get. When a team like Michigan State, Houston, or whoever else thinks they're good can have sustained success for decades on end like Ohio State, Michigan, and Alabama, then they can start asking to be treated like one of the big boys. Until then, these little upstart programs can take their seat at the kiddie table of college football and leave the playoff and winning championships to the real teams.

Also, Michigan State's season is a huge example of why the AP top 25 and Coach's Poll are meaningless. Michigan State was ranked number 12 in those polls. They thought a team that is now 2-7 and losing to some pretty awful programs was the 12th best team in the country. Shows how much the pollsters know about college football.

 

[ummmm........]

My god that was a great game. Controlled the ball for more than thirteen minutes in the fourth quarter . . .

It's almost down to the Alabama/Auburn game for the West. Would be only the second time that has ever happened. Just need Auburn to beat UGA next week and it's set . . .

There's a very strong chance that the East champion will be 5-3 in conference . . .

None of the undefeateds lost this week so no real changes . . :

Clemson -- Has to beat either Pitt or Wake, then most likely VT in the conference title game. Definitely the easiest path to the playoff for the remaining undefeated teams . . .

Alabama -- got over the LSU hump, Auburn hump still to go. I'm going to say our path is now marginally easier than Michigan's, but it's pretty much the same for both . . .

Michigan -- Beat Ohio State and win the conference, and they're in . . .

Washington -- Beat USC or ASU then Wazzu, then the conf title game. The most difficult path of the remaining P5 undefeateds imo, if only bc I don't really trust Washington yet . . .

Western Michigan -- Still looking like Toledo is their toughest test . . .

FUN FACTS . . :

Alabama is the first team since 1983 Auburn to beat ranked teams in four consecutive games . . .

We have also now held opponents scoreless almost twice as often as the next most successful team in that category over the past ten years . . .

We've also been ranked number one and lost five times over that same span. That actually seems like a lot to me. That's an 88.6 winning percentage as a number one. But I guess if you're ranked number one you pretty much have to lose to stop being ranked number one, so maybe that's not so bad. Seems bad though . . .

We have opened as a twenty-nine point favorite over Miss State. If I were a betting man, I'd take Miss State . . .

Alabama actually lost a vote in the coaches poll lololol. To Clemson, who jumped Michigan for number two lololololololol . . .

Alabama is now at even odds to win the national title. That's just ridiculous . . .

Also interesting: Ohio State is getting better odds than Michigan, Washington is getting better odds than Clemson, and Louisville and Wisconsin are both getting better odds than Auburn . . .

 

[IglooDame]

My god that was a great game. Controlled the ball for more than thirteen minutes in the fourth quarter . . .

I was actually giddy.

 

[ummmm........]

Well, I was talking about Alabama/LSU, but yeah, what Navy did to ND was in the same vein. ND had only six possessions in the entire game, only two in the second half . . .

FUN FACT . . :

Florida/LSU will be the first LSU home game in the early time slot since 1989 . . .

 

[ummmm........]

Duke beating UNC -- for their first conference win of the season, btw -- means that VT now needs to beat only one of GT or UVA to secure the division . . .

 

[Commodore]

Well, things just got...interesting. I'll have more to say when I can collect my thoughts. All I'll say now, is the Buckeyes are in a very bad position right now.

 

[ummmm........]

Things would have gotten interesting if not for the playoffs. Actually not much changed today . . .

With three of the remaining undefeateds losing today, I don't suppose it will be very interesting to just keep tracking Alabama & Western Michigan, esp since Alabama doesn't play another meaningful game for three weeks. So instead I'll start looking at the conference title races, since that matters more to the CFP committee anyway. So, first try . . :

ACC Atlantic -- Clemson beats Wake next week and they win the division. If they lose, Louisville wins the division. So no real change today . . .

ACC Coastal -- VT needs to beat UVA and they win the division. If they lose to UVA, then UNC can win the division by beating NC State. If VT and UNC both lose those games, there is the potential that VT, UNC, Pitt and Miami could all finish 5-3 in the division. I'm not going to bother sorting through that right now though . . .

Big XII -- Oklahoma wins if they win out vs. WVU and Okie State, which happen to be the only other two teams still alive in the conference, so that's kind of neat. If they lose to either then the team they lost to would win the conference if they win out. If they lose to both then WVU would have the head-to-head over Okie State if they both won out . . .

Big Ten East -- Okay, yeah, that does suck for Ohio State actually. Now Michgan still advances if they beat Ohio State, but if Ohio State beats Michigan then Penn State advances. Ohio State's only hope is Penn State losing vs. Rutgers or Michigan State . . .

Big Ten West -- Another one that's kind of a cluster, but basically Wisconsin advances by winning out, Nebraska stands to benefit if Wisconsin loses, and three other teams are theoretically alive if both of those first two take a total nosedive . . .

Pac-12 North -- Still down to Washington and Wazzu, still probably to be decided by the Apple Cup. So no real change today . . .

Pac-12 South -- Colorado, USC or Utah. Will probably come down to the Colorado/Utah game, one way or another . . .

SEC East -- almost over today, but if Florida loses to LSU AND Tennessee beats Mizzou and Vandy, then Tennessee advances. Otherwise, it's Florida . . .

SEC West -- Alabama, first to clinch, bc we're awesome

 

[tetley]

Crazy playoff week, because of the election. And frankly, I don't even care that much, and for the same reason. I'd like to give the playoff teams a mulligan this week.

 

[Commodore]

Things would have gotten interesting if not for the playoffs. Actually not much changed today . . .

How can you say that with any degree of seriousness? It's like you just make these statements without providing any logical justification for them at all other than "I hate the playoff system, so I'm going to rip on it at every opportunity". Listening to you talk about the playoff is like listening to Mark May talk about the Buckeyes; nothing but hate with no logical basis to that hate.

Anyway the committee is now faced with a very tough decision about which Big Ten team goes to the playoff. If Ohio State and Penn State win out, Ohio State will definitely have the better resume, but (as long as I'm understanding the Big Ten tiebreakers correctly) they won't even get to play in the title game due to Michigan's loss today. And since the committee places such a heavy emphasis on conference titles, it would create a ridiculous amount of controversy if they put the Buckeyes in the playoff without them even playing for the Big Ten title, especially if it's Penn State that goes on to win the title.

Washington is out of the playoff picture though, even if they still win the Pac-12. The conference is simply too weak, and their non-conference schedule was garbage so losing like they did today more or less knocks Washington out of the playoff picture unless something drastic happens. Clemson still has a shot despite losing since they are still going to win the ACC. Michigan now has a very tough road to the playoff since they say it's not about who you lose to, but when you lose. Losing this late in the season to an unranked Iowa team may have effectively ended Michigan's run for the playoff even if they do end up beating Ohio State. Of course with the Big Ten having four teams in the CFP top 25 (the only top 25 that matters), all of which have a strong case for the playoff, and with the ACC, Pac-12, and Big 12 looking like absolute doo-doo this year, I think the committee just may consider putting two Big Ten teams in the playoff.

 

[ummmm........]

I was editing actually, feel free to go back and read, or not

As to the rest I think you're overreacting to a bad turn for your team or have just momentarily forgotten very recent history. There is zero reason to believe Clemson or Washington would get left out if they ran the table, or to think two teams from one conference will get in . . .

You were right about Ohio State's chances going in the toilet though. Still, hasn't quite been flushed yet . . .

You're off the mark on Michigan though. No chance they get left out if they win the Big Ten. I don't think there is much chance Penn State, Wisconsin or Nebraska would get left out either, assuming they were conference champions. They just have to be better than one of the other conference champs, which shouldn't be too hard . . .

Also -- just bc I know how you like to project ideas and motivations on to me without foundation -- note that I'm not arguing about who should be in a four team playoff, just about who actually will be in this four team playoff. Ohio State is just the victim instead of the beneficiary this time around . . .

I've got to say, the coaches dropping Clemson behind Louisville doesn't make much sense but it is nice to see Louisville getting some love as the one-loss team with the 'best' loss. Well, best P5 team anyway. Troy has the same one-possession loss to Clemson as their only blemish as well . . .

And hey, look at that, Troy is in at #25 in the AP

First ever AP ranking for Troy, according to Cecil Hurt, and I've no particular reason to doubt him . . .

 

[Commodore]

You were right about Ohio State's chances going in the toilet though. Still, hasn't quite been flushed yet . . .

Penn State's last two games are against Rutgers and Michigan State. There's no chance that dumpster fire of a football program at Rutgers will beat them so OSU's only hope is Michigan State can scrape together whatever small amount of pride they have left and pull off a win against Penn State.