3.6 AI Only Game Statistics 700 game update (350 Emperor / 350 Warlord) + vote for next config

Settings for 3.7 games


  • Total voters
    44

L. Vern

Warlord
Joined
Sep 5, 2022
Messages
117
Location
Ontario, Canada
Includes the 263 from the previous post plus an additional 87, as well as 350 warlord games. Results are overall quite different on warlord difficulty compared to emperor; results with no AI bonuses might be insightful. I've also included a Poll this time to decide on the settings for the next batch of games to play, can vote for multiple options if you're interested in multiple (d4 = difficulty 4)

My quick thoughts:
  • pretty interesting how without the instant yield bonuses France performs better than Japan, could be largely how the civ scales with instant yields behind it
  • Austria pretty good on both, although interestingly more culture focused on Warlord
  • Warmonger civs in general seem to be performing way better on Warlord (Songhai, Iroquois, Greece, Rome in particular doing quite well) which could explain a good portion of the larger share of time victories, although in general civs are having a hard time reaching a win condition (maybe also cause they're getting rekt by warmongers)

Spoiler Victory Types :

1687831821340.png

1687832599520.png



Spoiler Civilizations (Graph) :

1687831640474.png

1687832827208.png



Spoiler Civilizations (Graph with 95% Confidence Intervals*) :

1687831680724.png

1687832812725.png



Spoiler Civilizations (Table) :

Emperor:
Civ
Games​
Victories​
Winrate​
Culture Victories​
Diplomatic Victories​
Science Victories​
Time Victories​
Domination Victories​
Average Victory Score​
Average Score Rank​
Turn 100 Average Score​
Turn 100 Average Rank​
Turn 200 Average Score​
Turn 200 Average Rank​
Turn 300 Average Score​
Turn 300 Average Rank​
Turn 400 Average Score​
Turn 400 Average Rank​
Turn 500 Average Score​
Turn 500 Average Rank​
1​
Austria
66​
18​
0.27​
2​
16​
0​
0​
0​
1941.92​
4.14​
382.14​
4.06​
952.94​
4.15​
1445.08​
4.32​
1913.12​
4.35​
791.8​
6​
2​
Arabia
61​
16​
0.26​
16​
0​
0​
0​
0​
1324.92​
4.56​
366.54​
4.92​
908.67​
4.7​
1279.36​
4.81​
1112.29​
5.71​
446.4​
6.4​
3​
Japan
58​
15​
0.26​
5​
0​
4​
0​
6​
2736.69​
3.64​
402.19​
3.52​
1131.9​
3.6​
2088.29​
3.41​
2389.18​
4.11​
2956​
4​
4​
The Ottomans
66​
17​
0.26​
4​
5​
6​
0​
2​
2448.03​
3.82​
404.41​
3.71​
1024.08​
3.74​
1733.91​
3.7​
2678.97​
3.5​
1159.5​
6.25​
5​
Germany
69​
17​
0.25​
7​
8​
0​
0​
2​
1587.04​
4.64​
359.3​
5.19​
885.59​
4.52​
1369.22​
4.72​
1354.06​
5.39​
nan​
nan​
6​
Greece
79​
19​
0.24​
3​
13​
2​
0​
1​
1921.97​
4.54​
391.68​
3.78​
953.87​
4.09​
1439.91​
4.75​
2013.66​
4.53​
1419.6​
5.3​
7​
Poland
53​
10​
0.19​
9​
0​
1​
0​
0​
1412.15​
4.79​
390.38​
3.91​
849.32​
4.74​
1284.06​
4.81​
1342.1​
5.21​
918.5​
5.75​
8​
China
68​
12​
0.18​
10​
1​
1​
0​
0​
1727.24​
4.31​
380.22​
4.13​
925.12​
4.32​
1501.6​
4.22​
1661.43​
4.51​
2316.4​
3.8​
9​
Rome
63​
11​
0.17​
0​
1​
0​
4​
6​
2867.7​
3.62​
360.83​
5.06​
984.57​
4.11​
1726.68​
3.81​
2470.76​
3.7​
4050​
3.29​
10​
India
63​
11​
0.17​
8​
1​
2​
0​
0​
1585.1​
4.59​
376.06​
4.38​
938.75​
4.27​
1390.46​
4.4​
1279.45​
5.55​
770.67​
5​
11​
Korea
86​
15​
0.17​
6​
0​
9​
0​
0​
1522.21​
4.71​
367.67​
4.76​
812.41​
5.13​
1229.49​
4.98​
1373.59​
5.3​
0​
7.5​
12​
Brazil
64​
11​
0.17​
7​
0​
4​
0​
0​
1751.59​
4.31​
379.27​
4.36​
886.34​
4.47​
1441.75​
4.27​
1713.05​
4.76​
535​
6.33​
13​
Babylon
61​
9​
0.15​
4​
0​
5​
0​
0​
1591.15​
4.49​
401.69​
3.54​
906.59​
4.77​
1317.21​
4.85​
1268.1​
5.52​
929.33​
5​
14​
The Inca
62​
9​
0.15​
2​
0​
2​
0​
5​
2050.52​
4.45​
400.56​
3.6​
977.44​
4.26​
1583.77​
4.45​
1836.88​
4.96​
839.25​
6.5​
15​
Morocco
76​
11​
0.14​
3​
7​
1​
0​
0​
1534.7​
4.74​
344.61​
5.72​
804.84​
5.13​
1224.45​
5.04​
1479.43​
5.17​
1099.33​
6​
16​
Indonesia
73​
10​
0.14​
2​
0​
7​
1​
0​
2080.48​
3.99​
417.45​
3.14​
1077.71​
3.34​
1649.41​
3.73​
2163.19​
4.33​
2563.67​
5​
17​
Assyria
66​
9​
0.14​
2​
0​
7​
0​
0​
2018.17​
4.35​
409.32​
3.38​
1000.09​
3.83​
1548.61​
4.24​
2101.08​
4.22​
1150​
5.67​
18​
Egypt
54​
7​
0.13​
7​
0​
0​
0​
0​
1122.69​
5.13​
360.87​
4.93​
832.43​
4.85​
1125.61​
5.33​
950.06​
5.94​
0​
7​
19​
Ethiopia
63​
8​
0.13​
7​
0​
1​
0​
0​
1559.46​
4.49​
397.49​
3.84​
903.87​
4.48​
1321​
4.71​
1565.07​
5.03​
859.5​
7​
20​
The Zulus
73​
9​
0.12​
0​
1​
0​
1​
7​
2267.7​
4.51​
349.53​
5.37​
849.03​
4.85​
1433.95​
4.71​
2551.07​
4​
4406​
3.67​
21​
Siam
62​
7​
0.11​
0​
6​
1​
0​
0​
1210.35​
5.32​
380.4​
4.02​
747.26​
5.61​
1050.43​
5.68​
1019.88​
5.94​
nan​
nan​
22​
Byzantium
65​
7​
0.11​
3​
2​
2​
0​
0​
1522.57​
4.68​
363.14​
5.03​
894.95​
4.63​
1329.46​
4.67​
1723.39​
4.27​
1807.33​
4.33​
23​
The Iroquois
56​
6​
0.11​
1​
2​
0​
2​
1​
2808.64​
3.41​
381.89​
4.27​
1045.39​
3.71​
1831.8​
3.5​
2801.23​
3.31​
4599​
3​
24​
Sweden
69​
7​
0.1​
0​
1​
0​
3​
3​
2177.29​
4.28​
345.88​
5.77​
834.06​
5.19​
1400.01​
4.81​
2045.57​
4.66​
2703.78​
3.67​
25​
The Aztecs
53​
5​
0.09​
1​
1​
0​
0​
3​
2875.42​
3.75​
384.47​
4​
1014.91​
3.72​
1576.06​
3.98​
2807.61​
3.9​
2826​
3​
26​
Songhai
85​
8​
0.09​
0​
1​
1​
2​
4​
2225.64​
4.13​
366.48​
4.81​
953.39​
4.44​
1545.34​
4.43​
2177.71​
3.89​
3044.73​
3.27​
27​
America
77​
7​
0.09​
2​
3​
0​
2​
0​
2110.69​
4.09​
392.04​
3.99​
925.45​
4.32​
1397.36​
4.61​
2181.12​
3.81​
4068.8​
2.2​
28​
Portugal
56​
5​
0.09​
1​
2​
2​
0​
0​
1445.54​
4.96​
353.11​
5.23​
805.07​
5.16​
1249.12​
5.11​
1518.88​
5.18​
1172​
5.5​
29​
England
57​
5​
0.09​
0​
2​
0​
0​
3​
2150.11​
3.86​
353.63​
5.14​
916.58​
4.47​
1478.81​
4.16​
2057.7​
4.58​
3825​
2​
30​
Russia
71​
6​
0.08​
1​
0​
5​
0​
0​
1882.96​
4.32​
391.46​
3.87​
853.3​
4.76​
1352.38​
4.7​
2093.5​
4.32​
844​
6​
31​
The Celts
50​
4​
0.08​
1​
0​
2​
0​
1​
1394.36​
5.28​
408.08​
3.26​
886.82​
4.56​
1216.73​
5.1​
1448.75​
5.59​
992.75​
6.5​
32​
The Netherlands
65​
5​
0.08​
3​
2​
0​
0​
0​
1502.28​
4.66​
351.55​
5.46​
885.51​
4.85​
1301.31​
4.71​
1418.12​
5.45​
1082.67​
6​
33​
Persia
55​
4​
0.07​
2​
1​
0​
1​
0​
2034.84​
4.22​
366.75​
4.71​
901.16​
4.55​
1446.56​
4.22​
2177.62​
3.97​
2280.4​
4.8​
34​
The Maya
72​
5​
0.07​
2​
1​
2​
0​
0​
1362.81​
5.06​
392.94​
3.82​
909.76​
4.5​
1160.31​
5.25​
1288.55​
5.74​
0​
8.5​
35​
The Shoshone
82​
5​
0.06​
1​
3​
0​
1​
0​
1545.52​
4.56​
366.13​
4.59​
882.67​
4.66​
1301.56​
4.81​
1660.12​
4.6​
2440.75​
4.88​
36​
Denmark
52​
3​
0.06​
0​
0​
0​
1​
2​
1827.94​
4.6​
326.42​
6.08​
842.77​
4.9​
1310.41​
4.96​
1931.71​
4.61​
3042.83​
3.17​
37​
Mongolia
64​
3​
0.05​
0​
1​
0​
2​
0​
1315​
5.06​
343.12​
5.61​
759.28​
5.31​
1087.19​
5.41​
1659.11​
4.97​
2516.29​
4.43​
38​
Carthage
65​
3​
0.05​
1​
1​
1​
0​
0​
1342.74​
4.71​
416.77​
3.37​
964.17​
4.02​
1334.7​
4.69​
1572.97​
4.53​
1056.5​
5.25​
39​
Polynesia
66​
3​
0.05​
2​
0​
1​
0​
0​
1531.2​
4.7​
378.44​
4.58​
934.71​
4.55​
1402.85​
4.68​
1524.6​
5.03​
1323.4​
5​
40​
Spain
66​
3​
0.05​
0​
1​
0​
1​
1​
1384.62​
5.24​
340.42​
5.94​
777.36​
5.59​
1162.85​
5.21​
1566.53​
5.16​
3313​
3.75​
41​
Venice
60​
2​
0.03​
1​
1​
0​
0​
0​
1395.15​
4.72​
413.53​
3.25​
982.38​
3.78​
1200.45​
4.92​
1332.25​
5.32​
1296.5​
6​
42​
The Huns
60​
2​
0.03​
1​
0​
0​
0​
1​
1311.98​
5.13​
352.5​
5.12​
885.07​
4.88​
1147.76​
5.22​
1671.26​
4.84​
1208.43​
5.43​
43​
France
68​
1​
0.01​
0​
0​
0​
1​
0​
1272.85​
5.03​
340.04​
6.03​
821.79​
5.32​
1209.78​
4.96​
1268.24​
5.32​
1654​
5.75​
Warlord:
Civ
Games​
Victories​
Winrate​
Culture Victories​
Diplomatic Victories​
Science Victories​
Time Victories​
Domination Victories​
Average Victory Score​
Average Score Rank​
Turn 100 Average Score​
Turn 100 Average Rank​
Turn 200 Average Score​
Turn 200 Average Rank​
Turn 300 Average Score​
Turn 300 Average Rank​
Turn 400 Average Score​
Turn 400 Average Rank​
Turn 500 Average Score​
Turn 500 Average Rank​
1​
Austria
61​
18​
0.3​
11​
3​
0​
4​
0​
1739.82​
4.16​
286.25​
3.23​
651.2​
4.25​
1012.03​
4.49​
1451.6​
4.43​
1630.78​
4.43​
2​
The Netherlands
70​
19​
0.27​
12​
4​
0​
1​
2​
1951.27​
3.81​
268.81​
3.93​
653.83​
4.11​
1094.76​
4.13​
1600.81​
3.99​
1719.46​
4.25​
3​
China
59​
16​
0.27​
11​
0​
0​
5​
0​
1843.56​
3.93​
292.58​
2.54​
680.63​
3.64​
1141.12​
4.03​
1536.79​
4.28​
1990.85​
4.08​
4​
Songhai
67​
17​
0.25​
0​
0​
0​
12​
5​
1918.61​
4.09​
237.15​
5.61​
627.87​
4.39​
1057.35​
4.08​
1428.19​
4.37​
2071.3​
4.19​
5​
The Iroquois
66​
16​
0.24​
0​
0​
0​
13​
3​
2489.73​
3.05​
250.95​
4.68​
701.08​
3.52​
1241.58​
3.42​
1962.1​
3.3​
2584.67​
3.15​
6​
India
68​
16​
0.24​
13​
0​
0​
3​
0​
1649.91​
4.1​
274.29​
3.81​
655.54​
4.07​
1124.72​
3.75​
1579.9​
3.89​
1425.28​
5.07​
7​
The Aztecs
55​
11​
0.2​
0​
0​
0​
6​
5​
1882.42​
4.29​
242.49​
5.33​
678.18​
4.11​
1072.8​
4.47​
1441.4​
4.58​
1905.44​
4.22​
8​
Greece
76​
15​
0.2​
4​
2​
0​
8​
1​
1684.78​
4.55​
278.84​
3.16​
672.93​
3.71​
990.37​
4.53​
1319.91​
4.89​
1992.83​
4.61​
9​
Poland
72​
14​
0.19​
13​
0​
0​
1​
0​
1547.15​
4.11​
276.94​
3.47​
665.31​
3.72​
1067.51​
4.01​
1483.21​
4.22​
1443.72​
5.08​
10​
Carthage
68​
13​
0.19​
4​
0​
0​
6​
3​
1727.43​
4.29​
289.37​
2.93​
701.79​
3.51​
1069.91​
4.26​
1457.82​
4.5​
1576.89​
4.48​
11​
Siam
59​
11​
0.19​
7​
2​
0​
2​
0​
1759.59​
4.1​
283.27​
3.36​
628.44​
4.51​
1009.03​
4.47​
1486.72​
4.47​
1580.24​
4.33​
12​
Germany
71​
13​
0.18​
5​
3​
0​
5​
0​
1553.94​
4.35​
271.01​
3.89​
617.87​
4.34​
974.18​
4.48​
1274.47​
4.79​
1590.86​
4.44​
13​
Indonesia
66​
12​
0.18​
6​
0​
0​
5​
1​
1895.74​
4.11​
266.26​
4.03​
676.62​
3.56​
1123.27​
3.97​
1564.52​
4.25​
2206​
3.88​
14​
Rome
58​
10​
0.17​
0​
0​
0​
8​
2​
1632.52​
4.43​
219.31​
6.59​
583.38​
5.12​
941.64​
4.84​
1331.91​
4.68​
1718.39​
4.58​
15​
Denmark
80​
12​
0.15​
0​
0​
0​
9​
3​
1718.99​
4.21​
229.92​
5.72​
596.34​
4.75​
1059.1​
4.13​
1405.83​
4.48​
1916.26​
3.93​
16​
Brazil
62​
9​
0.15​
4​
0​
0​
5​
0​
1925.63​
3.6​
258.13​
4.71​
624.81​
4.39​
1167.89​
3.84​
1637.39​
3.78​
2146.29​
3.71​
17​
America
65​
9​
0.14​
1​
0​
0​
7​
1​
1213.29​
5.23​
241.72​
5.52​
531.09​
5.68​
783.98​
5.62​
1061.87​
5.42​
1364.88​
5.44​
18​
The Inca
64​
8​
0.12​
1​
0​
0​
7​
0​
1761.62​
4.2​
257.25​
4.41​
675.7​
3.66​
1124.11​
4.05​
1554.11​
4​
2262​
3.77​
19​
Morocco
70​
8​
0.11​
8​
0​
0​
0​
0​
1412.56​
4.57​
251.31​
5.06​
571.63​
5.4​
990.31​
4.73​
1294.58​
4.61​
1201.25​
5.28​
20​
France
71​
8​
0.11​
3​
0​
0​
5​
0​
1245.31​
4.97​
230.77​
6.01​
512.24​
5.99​
773.27​
5.67​
1082.25​
5.4​
1445.32​
4.89​
21​
Sweden
72​
8​
0.11​
0​
0​
0​
5​
3​
1370.65​
4.92​
230.92​
6.15​
539.68​
5.71​
802.9​
5.58​
1073.85​
5.3​
1438.41​
5.21​
22​
The Ottomans
46​
5​
0.11​
0​
1​
0​
3​
1​
1919.24​
3.8​
268.78​
4.04​
680​
3.57​
1174.91​
3.62​
1622​
3.73​
1966.23​
4.05​
23​
Arabia
60​
6​
0.1​
6​
0​
0​
0​
0​
1264.92​
4.9​
265.93​
4.53​
669.07​
4.2​
1049.05​
4.3​
1334.62​
4.69​
1222.4​
5.32​
24​
Persia
74​
7​
0.09​
0​
0​
0​
4​
3​
1510.66​
4.66​
240.14​
5.34​
563.68​
5.28​
868.03​
5.19​
1203.87​
5.2​
1486.46​
5​
25​
Korea
57​
5​
0.09​
4​
0​
0​
1​
0​
1049.44​
5.11​
260.7​
4.67​
557.49​
5.37​
856.44​
5.18​
1054.29​
5.13​
949.88​
5.68​
26​
England
70​
6​
0.09​
0​
0​
0​
4​
2​
1819.66​
4​
240.14​
5.36​
607.06​
4.79​
1024.41​
4.51​
1546.84​
4.19​
2265.31​
3.54​
27​
Egypt
50​
4​
0.08​
4​
0​
0​
0​
0​
1413.26​
4.48​
267.6​
3.98​
620.36​
4.5​
1025.41​
4.55​
1260.76​
4.83​
1116.5​
5.27​
28​
Babylon
76​
6​
0.08​
4​
0​
1​
1​
0​
1344.57​
4.49​
273.25​
3.42​
654.26​
4.11​
1022.59​
4.43​
1284.46​
4.53​
1068.36​
5.58​
29​
Venice
80​
6​
0.08​
4​
1​
0​
1​
0​
1596.64​
4.1​
297.2​
2.81​
754.26​
2.69​
1167.04​
3.5​
1430.58​
4.22​
1444.56​
4.56​
30​
Assyria
57​
4​
0.07​
0​
0​
0​
3​
1​
1321.25​
4.84​
267.56​
4.09​
682.46​
3.46​
1049.68​
4.23​
1293.35​
4.69​
1421.81​
5​
31​
The Shoshone
79​
5​
0.06​
2​
0​
0​
2​
1​
1537.84​
4.54​
260.1​
4.35​
619.75​
4.53​
983.86​
4.71​
1310.47​
4.84​
1396.21​
5.12​
32​
The Huns
65​
4​
0.06​
0​
0​
0​
4​
0​
1036.31​
5.12​
242.09​
5.34​
534.43​
5.15​
791.02​
5.36​
992.9​
5.41​
1341.19​
5.46​
33​
The Maya
82​
5​
0.06​
2​
0​
0​
3​
0​
1092.99​
5.11​
267.7​
4.17​
630.78​
3.95​
913.42​
4.72​
1061.06​
5.19​
1332.89​
5.24​
34​
Portugal
69​
4​
0.06​
0​
3​
0​
1​
0​
1521.41​
4.43​
257.26​
4.41​
564.26​
5.2​
963.06​
4.8​
1318.88​
4.5​
1377.75​
4.86​
35​
Ethiopia
57​
3​
0.05​
1​
0​
0​
2​
0​
1261.37​
4.88​
267.37​
4.14​
607.26​
4.56​
907.35​
4.82​
1161.02​
5​
1334.72​
4.9​
36​
Japan
60​
3​
0.05​
1​
0​
0​
2​
0​
1275.75​
5.1​
260.72​
4.43​
630.22​
4.9​
992.68​
4.87​
1284.43​
5.05​
1484.6​
5.57​
37​
Polynesia
62​
3​
0.05​
0​
0​
0​
3​
0​
1345.53​
4.68​
254.53​
4.77​
598.97​
4.89​
978.76​
4.52​
1244.11​
4.82​
1562.85​
5.04​
38​
The Zulus
68​
3​
0.04​
0​
0​
0​
2​
1​
1265.88​
4.84​
233.88​
5.93​
526.68​
5.71​
805.1​
5.46​
1143.59​
4.89​
1414.55​
5.03​
39​
Russia
52​
2​
0.04​
0​
0​
0​
2​
0​
1341.87​
4.6​
274.08​
3.62​
628.29​
4.35​
913.94​
4.63​
1172.38​
4.98​
1728.74​
4.32​
40​
Mongolia
57​
2​
0.04​
0​
0​
0​
2​
0​
1153.96​
5.14​
223.51​
6.53​
510.75​
5.91​
788.86​
5.57​
1038.91​
5.38​
1310.28​
5.44​
41​
Byzantium
58​
2​
0.03​
0​
1​
0​
1​
0​
974.47​
5.24​
257.03​
4.62​
573.38​
5.26​
842.45​
5.29​
1058.38​
5.27​
949.25​
5.83​
42​
The Celts
71​
2​
0.03​
1​
0​
0​
1​
0​
972.28​
5.32​
271.66​
3.77​
600.79​
4.41​
935.21​
4.82​
997.57​
5.38​
1063.17​
5.41​
43​
Spain
50​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
910.1​
5.2​
241.2​
5.4​
540.02​
5.72​
785.94​
5.59​
917.58​
5.58​
947.29​
6.1​


Spoiler Policy Branch Stats :

1687832080780.png

1687833212362.png




Spoiler Technology Research Times :

1687832183925.png

1687836111404.png

 
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Definitely play without Time Victory next time. You can still get the "winner" on turn 500 from the data, but it won't stop the "actual" victory from being generated.
 
Definitely play without Time Victory next time. You can still get the "winner" on turn 500 from the data, but it won't stop the "actual" victory from being generated.
Yet the "actual" victory doesn't matter if it happens after the time victory. In the time victory, the greatest empire in general wins (Although the formula for score may not be perfect).
 
Ultimately I can’t accept results where SV is nonexistent, that just throws everything out of whack. I look at my own recent game as India, I won SV on turn 454, and I was in the middle of the pack score wise, but I still won. Hey in an AI setting that win would have gone to someone else.

I think you have to remove time victory to see the “real results”.
 
Yet the "actual" victory doesn't matter if it happens after the time victory. In the time victory, the greatest empire in general wins (Although the formula for score may not be perfect).
Well IMO Time Victory shouldn't be a thing at all. The world doesn't end in year 2050 and decide a winner based on arbitrary scores. Now that the game doesn't start breaking on turn 501 anymore, we don't need a time limit.

Also don't play on Continents+, you'll just see Siam at the rock bottom.
 
Maybe still count Time Victory but disable Time Victory so then the game won't end.
Account civs that are reached the highest score at turn 500, but let them still gain other VC types.
 
So I thought about this more, and more I'm convinced that warlord is just a bad difficulty to do this on.

Now it does seem fairest at first glance, but what the results to me show is.... warlord is not a competitive difficulty. The AI isn't winning as much as it just plays until the time runs out. and that is perfectly fine for a player that wants a more casual experience, nothing wrong at all. But from a balance standpoint....it doesn't matter. It frankly doesn't matter how balanced or imbalanced the civs are on warlord, because warlord isn't a competitive difficulty. Its there to kick back and have fun, you don't need really good balance at that point.

Likewise if we remove time victory, sure we will see other VCs come out. but at the same time competitive players aren't playing games till turn 550 or 600 on standard speeds....so that assessment is somewhat flawed as well.

Perhaps its better to try King, the AIs get a few bonuses but not as many, and if they are actually winning games in the 500 turn window, than that maybe the most accurate representation we can hope to get.
 
Warlord results can still be helpful in showing what the "AI gap" looks like though, compared to a human. They can't win SV in a timely fashion for example, so however humans are managing to do it isn't how the AI is playing. Maybe something to look at in terms of helping cleanup scoring on the AI logic side.

At the very least it shows that the AI bonuses are important to the AI's ability to win given the current constraints (research time being one that has been tweaked semi-recently), and so mechanics that interact favorably with AI bonuses (Japan's on-level-up ticks being a prime example right now) are going to have outsized impact for higher difficulties.
 
So I thought about this more, and more I'm convinced that warlord is just a bad difficulty to do this on.

Now it does seem fairest at first glance, but what the results to me show is.... warlord is not a competitive difficulty. The AI isn't winning as much as it just plays until the time runs out. and that is perfectly fine for a player that wants a more casual experience, nothing wrong at all. But from a balance standpoint....it doesn't matter. It frankly doesn't matter how balanced or imbalanced the civs are on warlord, because warlord isn't a competitive difficulty. Its there to kick back and have fun, you don't need really good balance at that point.

Likewise if we remove time victory, sure we will see other VCs come out. but at the same time competitive players aren't playing games till turn 550 or 600 on standard speeds....so that assessment is somewhat flawed as well.

Perhaps its better to try King, the AIs get a few bonuses but not as many, and if they are actually winning games in the 500 turn window, than that maybe the most accurate representation we can hope to get.
I agree with this assessment. I ran a ton of warlords games as it was by and large the most requested scenario that people wanted to see, and what we've seen is at this difficulty is civs don't really have the oomph to score consistent wins. Which as you've said is absolutely great if you're new or casual and don't want the AI trying too hard to win, but probably not so great for gauging performance in situations where players want a challenge.

Probably still some useful information to be gleaned from this though, like "Nerf Austria" :)
 
The world doesn't end in year 2050 and decide a winner based on arbitrary scores.
What kind of argument is that? :D The world also doesn't end when a country launch a rocket or is very popular. It's just a game and those are just winning conditions.
Time victory is similar to science victory. It happens when you prevent all other victories from competitors and you have the greatest empire. This is similar to a victory in Humankind or Dune. It feels much more natural than those other arbitrary victory conditions that you have to accumulate enough tourism, launch a rocket or have enough votes... With the time victory, whoever has the greatest empire wins.
 
Also if we balance around Emperor where the performance is skewed a lot by handicaps, we dont generate any meaningful data on how a civ would perform handled by the player, who obviously doesnt have handicaps above chieftain.

Edit: And balancing around AI performance with difficulty handicaps also means the balance is strictly dependent on them which also means that the balance is very different with another difficulty with different handicaps.

The ideal balance situation for me would be that AI is balanced around Warlord and difficulty handicaps minimally impact the distribution.
 
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It frankly doesn't matter how balanced or imbalanced the civs are on warlord, because warlord isn't a competitive difficulty.

Which as you've said is absolutely great if you're new or casual and don't want the AI trying too hard to win, but probably not so great for gauging performance in situations where players want a challenge.
That's also a good point, but with that in mind, the balance would be the most important on deity difficulty, because the most competitive players play on it. On the other hand, deity is the most different difficulty from other difficulties and balance around it could break earlier difficulties.
 
I was excited to see what the AI's, independent of the handicap bonuses, could show us, but ultimately I think this leaves me a bit cold. I don't think the Warlord tests tell us much other than that the AI needs the handicaps in order to win.
At warlord, the AI just has to give a human player a run for their money, but the human is still heavily favored to win. These win %s reflect that. It's not a competitive game mode.
This also brings me back to my older comment: The AI doesn't need to win, it just needs to knock a human out. At Warlord, I think we are seeing the lower end of that reality.
Other observations:
  • With time victory gobbling up most of the % wins, all other wins recede in roughly the same order as their speed. The average victory speed for DomV, DiploV and CV all moved back roughly 80 turns. The average SV on emperor was already within 80 turns of 500, so it is just gone. The fastest victory types (domV and CV) are much less affected than the slower victory types (DiploV and SV). I interpret this as the handicaps affecting all victory types fairly evenly. If that weren't the case we would see victory times move a lot further for some victories than others.
  • The exception to this victory drought is the absolute top tier civs. There are very few time victories in the top 3. These are all civs that can win an actual victory in the time given.
  • Nerf Austria.
  • As @L. Vern pointed out, military civs do a lot better in general without the AI bonuses. This makes sense because conquest/wide gives a lot of score, and if no one is winning any other way, the person that simply has the most conquest will have the most score most of the time. We aren't seeing military civs do better, we're mostly just seeing how the game biases score, which doesn't have much bearing on who is actually closest to winning.
    • One exception is domination/Science civs. Assyria and Russia both got their SV's deleted by Warlord. Russia was already at the bottom though
    • Another exception is Domination civs that augment XP and levels. Once again Assyria dropped a lot. So did Zulu, and so did Japan. All civs are getting free XP and more % XP from combat, and it looks like taking that handicap away hit those 3 civs hard. Hard enough for them all to go down while the rest of the Domination civs went up.
    • Mongols, Huns, Russia, and Spain all stayed at the bottom on both difficulties. The only conclusion is that they're just bad, even when the settings favor them. Their badness is a strong signal that cuts through the noise.
 
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balancing around AI performance with difficulty handicaps also means the balance is strictly dependent on them which also means that the balance is very different with another difficulty with different handicaps.
An argument can be made that balancing around AI performance is more important than around players, because you handicap yourself through difficulty anyway and runaway AIs hurt your experience much more that way.
 
Also if we balance around Emperor where the performance is skewed a lot by handicaps, we dont generate any meaningful data on how a civ would perform handled by the player, who obviously doesnt have handicaps above chieftain.

Edit: And balancing around AI performance with difficulty handicaps also means the balance is strictly dependent on them which also means that the balance is very different with another difficulty with different handicaps.

The ideal balance situation for me would be that AI is balanced around Warlord and difficulty handicaps minimally impact the distribution.
The ideal balance is that AI is balanced around having no bonuses at all aside from their own kit. Let them play with their raw kit properly, and then we can adjust the bonus later to balance the difficulty handicaps.

If we balance around Emperor, then the game will only be balanced around Emperor. There will be lopsided results on other difficulties.
We have to balance while accounting for all existing difficulties.
 
I don't see how you can balance around Warlord besides lowering all costs/inflating yields more so they can win before turn 500.
 
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