I agree with Ori mostly again.
We must not take the word of any Firaxians in this manner as the absolute truth. While Firaxis has created a great game, I don't necessarily see their point of view as superior to any of the posters here. When confronted with the barrage promotion bug in BTS 3.17 they said 'remove it'. When confronted with a Glance Screen that wasn't universally considered a work of art, they said 'remove it'. They view this product as finished and thus will take a point of view that results in as little as work as possible. I don't really think that's bad or something from their point of view, but it shouldn't necessarily be our point of view.
Interesting and well-stated thoughts, I suppose I'm just trying to find an "impartial" arbiter that we could all agree upon to resolve the issue.
I'm in favour of the following model:
The patrol ships are the attackers. They can intervene pillage attempts as long as they're alive (just like fighters can). They still get a coastal defence bonus when they're on coastal terrain (weird yes, but I want to give the advantage to the defender which I guess was the intention of making the patrol units de facto defend in BTS 3.17-patrol/pillage-initiated combat). The chance that the patrol ships intervene is directly related to their hitpoints (exactly as is true for fighters and jet fighters, 40 hitpoints = 40% chance of patrol-intervention). If no intervention takes place, then pillaging succeeds.
It's a solution that's better than the current mechanism, but I still don't like the way that it (in comparison to Dan's fix) lowers the effective power of the "idealized" patrol function, and it still leaves defenders open to a second (although not a third and fourth...) attack from units that have already attempted to pillage. Hence, it's only a partial fix.
Result 1: The pillager cannot retreat from combat because defenders cannot retreat from combat. That removes one weird issue that some players have with the BTS 3.17 patrol mission.
Result 2: If the pillagers are stronger (by pure unit strength or after bombardment, missile attacks, nuke attacks), then the patrol ships might suicidally attack the pillaging fleet. However the patrol ships are unlikely to intervene when seriously wounded and thus might not suicidally attack in that case.
Motivation for this model: I like the aerial interception model and it would work fairly well for patrol. It doesn't really mess with other standard game rules.
Problem: I don't even have nearly enough knowledge about programming to implement this model.
Me either. I suppose we can at least agree that we both suck at that part, ha?! lol