Which reminds me of the acronym OMGUSSBISYA (Oh My God Ur So Scummy Because I Say You Are)
A Tale of One City [Game Thread]
- Thread starter Skwink
- Start date
Which reminds me of the acronym OMGUSSBISYA (Oh My God Ur So Scummy Because I Say You Are)
Askthepizzaguy
Know the Dark Side
choxxy, you're right up there with MoreEpicThanYou in terms of never-gonna-get-lynched-itude. The difference being you're still alive. If you feel like it, a list of your top several suspects in order would be lovely to have on record.
Diana Abnoba
Warlord
Vote: BigTin
Diana Abnoba
Warlord
What does tl;dr mean again?
too long; didn't read
Zack
99% hot gas
Everyone who has voted for you has morphed into one of your top suspects.
Unvote, Vote: ATPG
Am I a suspect now?
Diana Abnoba
Warlord
Right, now I remember, thanks.
Askthepizzaguy
Know the Dark Side
Ah I see. I guess I must have forgot when Mergle voted for me, or when the late wagoners on NinjaCow all voted for me, because those folks are all ahead of Joecoolyo in terms of my suspicion level.
Your voting for me right now doesn't even register on my give-a-
-ometer, since you're not listening to what I have to say seriously, and instead just mocking what I've been trying to do. So, the best possible response I have right now is to just sit back and wait and let the chips fall where they may. Do whatever you like Zack, you obviously put a lot of thought and effort into that vote there.
landlubber
Scottish Nationalist
- Joined
- Mar 5, 2010
- Messages
- 1,534
This post strikes me as very anti-town and demoralizing. It's clear that that's not what ATPG was saying. Why try to get him lynched?
Vote: Zack.
Askthepizzaguy
Know the Dark Side
He's not trying to get me lynched. He's trying to score debate points and show that he's annoyed with me.
I'm pointing out that he's wasting his time and mine.
I'm pointing out that he's wasting his time and mine.
landlubber
Scottish Nationalist
- Joined
- Mar 5, 2010
- Messages
- 1,534
If he's not trying to get you lynched, then his vote is nonsensical, so my vote stands.
Zack
99% hot gas
This game has alignment reveals on death, and the mafia have only one nightkill. Thus, the standard number of mafia (2) for a vanilla game this size would be unfair to the mafia. So, I'm guessing there's probably 3 mafia. The statistical probability of lynching two mafia - or, in other words/numbers, two-thirds of the mafia team - within the first three days is extremely, extremely low. There are 22 players alive, and let's for the sake of argument assume that 2 of them are mafia. That means that if I used an RNG to produce a name right now, there would be roughly a 9.1% chance the randomly generated name is mafia. Now, yesterday there were 23 people alive, and let's assume three of them were mafia. That left about a 13% chance of lynching a mafia, if one used an RNG. Now, let's do some math:
9.1% (2/22) * 13% (3/23) = ~1.2%
That means, assuming we picked someone randomly, there is a 1.2% chance that player is mafia.
Therefore, it is highly, highly unlikely that either BSmith or BigTin - by far, the two most popular lynch candidates today - are mafia, regardless of their behavior. That's just simple probability.
Conjecture #1: Neither BSmith nor BigTin are mafia.
Thus, I will look towards other players, personally. Let's start off with ATPG's prime suspects:
My take: lolwut? That's worthy enough to merit a ranking as your #1 suspect, Pizzaman? You're better than that.
My take: ...Really?
My take: Valid. Why the hell aren't these people at the top of your list, ATPG?
My take:
Listen, ATPG is a fantastic player. I personally voted him a 10 in all player awards. But, he's not infallible; three of his four top suspects, including the top two, are based on some of the weakest cases ever to land someone as a prime suspect.
Also, some notes on Pizzaman:
Now, let's take a look at the case on BigTin:
My take: BigTin seems to be exhibiting very similar behavior to when he was in a similar situation in Simpsons Mafia. Poor reasoning is more townie behavior than mafia behavior, in any case.
Now, I also think it's interesting that MoreEpicThanYou was killed. It seems like a very odd choice, until you remember that ATPG said MoreEpic was a very likely townie.
Conjecture #2: The mafia have been paying very close attention to the words of Professor Askvaard von Pizzaguy.
I think the mafia are likely to fall into at least one of the following categories:
Anyone who falls in two of those categories should be looked at very closely.
Some lists for reference:
Unvote, Vote: landlubber
My vote on ATPG was just to see how he responded. I don't think he merits a lynch at this point in time. As for you, you didn't vote for NinjaCow and you just fawned over ATPG like he was a walking pair of boobies. "Voting against ATPG? THAT MEANS DEATH!!!!"
9.1% (2/22) * 13% (3/23) = ~1.2%
That means, assuming we picked someone randomly, there is a 1.2% chance that player is mafia.
Therefore, it is highly, highly unlikely that either BSmith or BigTin - by far, the two most popular lynch candidates today - are mafia, regardless of their behavior. That's just simple probability.
Conjecture #1: Neither BSmith nor BigTin are mafia.
Thus, I will look towards other players, personally. Let's start off with ATPG's prime suspects:
The case: BSmith's vote broke a lynch tie and put a mafioso in first place, leading to said mafioso's eventual lynch.
My take: lolwut? That's worthy enough to merit a ranking as your #1 suspect, Pizzaman? You're better than that.
The case: He forgot he had signed up for a game which has been in sign-ups for months.
My take: ...Really?
The case: There is a scumbag(s) hidden among the later votes on NinjaCow.
My take: Valid. Why the hell aren't these people at the top of your list, ATPG?
The case: "He voted for me!"
My take:
Listen, ATPG is a fantastic player. I personally voted him a 10 in all player awards. But, he's not infallible; three of his four top suspects, including the top two, are based on some of the weakest cases ever to land someone as a prime suspect.
Also, some notes on Pizzaman:
- He made such a huge deal about NinjaCow, then couldn't even be bothered to vote for him.
- Everyone who had voted for him at the time of that post was one of his suspects.
- Pizza usually will say how people who kiss his ass are often scum; this time, he went the complete opposite direction.
Now, let's take a look at the case on BigTin:
The case: Made the vote with Ninja closer, said noobies are better dead than alive.FoS: BigTin
You would rather have a townie gone, just because they are new? What, are you doing? Trying to save Ninja or something?
My take: BigTin seems to be exhibiting very similar behavior to when he was in a similar situation in Simpsons Mafia. Poor reasoning is more townie behavior than mafia behavior, in any case.
Now, I also think it's interesting that MoreEpicThanYou was killed. It seems like a very odd choice, until you remember that ATPG said MoreEpic was a very likely townie.
METY falls into the above category.
Conjecture #2: The mafia have been paying very close attention to the words of Professor Askvaard von Pizzaguy.
I think the mafia are likely to fall into at least one of the following categories:
- People who were late on NinjaCow bandwagon.
- People who didn't vote for NinjaCow.
- People who have been kissing ATPG's ass. (This is not meant as a slight to ATPG; rather, mafia tend to either fawn over him like he is an angel, or rage against him like he is the devil. Townies typically fall somewhere in the middle ground.)
- People who have been raging against ATPG like he is Satan (really only BSmith at this point, but I find that unlikely; some of you might throw me in here, but disagreeing =/= frothing at the mouth against him and screaming for his head).
Anyone who falls in two of those categories should be looked at very closely.
Some lists for reference:
Spoiler :
Unvote, Vote: landlubber
My vote on ATPG was just to see how he responded. I don't think he merits a lynch at this point in time. As for you, you didn't vote for NinjaCow and you just fawned over ATPG like he was a walking pair of boobies. "Voting against ATPG? THAT MEANS DEATH!!!!"
Zack
99% hot gas
Also, FoS: Kennigit
Askthepizzaguy
Know the Dark Side
That was at the very least constructive.
However Zack, if BSmith or Mergle flips mafia, you need to finish that entire burger, and stop just looking at it like you're going to eat it.
Eat it, bucko.
However Zack, if BSmith or Mergle flips mafia, you need to finish that entire burger, and stop just looking at it like you're going to eat it.
Eat it, bucko.
Askthepizzaguy
Know the Dark Side
Now, my cross-examination:
Zack goes LOLWUT when I say Mergle is a suspect, then he puts Mergle on two different lists of likely scum. You just didn't like my reasoning given, which was that he happened to show up, at just the right time, to join a wagon, which by the way was one of the wagons deciding the fate of a mafioso.
That's what a lurking mafioso might do to spare his partner or take credit for lynching said partner. It shows an unusual amount of interest in the game (no prior interest...) at precisely the moment the fate of a mafia is being decided.
ORLY? Ya rly Zack. He's on your list of scum too, so don't even.
"Conjecture: Neither BigTin nor BSmith are mafia", sez Zack.
Well BigTin gonna die today so we'll find out, won't we? But I'm afraid I need BSmith dead and by lynch, at some point soon. Unless he lynches a second mafioso. No amount of handwaving is going to make me go oh, well BigTin wasn't mafia, so I guess BSmith won't be either.
Other comments:
The case: "He voted for me!"
Yeah? Well what did NinjaCow do? And who was right there trying to get people to pay more attention to Askthepizzaguy while NinjaCow's head was being placed on the block?
Don't act like it hadn't led directly to NinjaCow already. And since his life was on the line, you're saying that nobody on his team tried to get suspicion onto a different suspect? Surely you're not? You're saying they all just lined up to vote for him and wagon him right away, early in the round?
If not, then there are only two other positions. They took no position, or they tried a counterattack. You agree with that much. At least one mafioso took the position of attacking me to begin with, and BSmith was right there urgently pressing for more attention on me.
Now, it might not have been me. That's valid. It might have been JoanK they were pressing for. But the underlying premise is the same; they tried to spare NinjaCow and failed.
You say well, not BSmith, because hey, he did vote to tie it back up when BigTin voted for JoanK. So it makes absolutely no sense that BSmith would be mafia.
Okay, well I find that cute.
I've pulled off that same tactic before as mafia and won those games. And it's not that risky a strategy either.
1) It's just a tie. NinjaCow's fate is still not sealed. And there was lots of momentum on JoanK, who looks pretty darned townie to me right now.
2) BSmith gets super townie points if NinjaCow dies and flips mafia.
3) BSmith gets super townie points if NinjaCow survives, later dies, and flips mafia.
4) BSmith gets super townie points if JoanK dies, and flips townie, and then Ninja dies, and flips mafia.
5) BSmith and NinjaCow enjoy a great distancing for the remainder of the game. If BSmith dies and flips mafia, NinjaCow looks good.
So don't act like this is a dumbass strategy, it bloody works and it's been done before a dozen times. The fact that you would overlook this speaks volumes about how sloppily you're playing the game right now.
You know why that strategy works? Because even smart townies like you will give BSmith a pass for a half dozen rounds or more because of it.
If you're going to bus your partner, you do it to gain maximum innocent points. When is the moment you get such points? Why, deciding a tiebreaker situation against them, for one. But the next best thing is re-tying it up.
Joining after his fate has already been decided risks nothing and these days, you'll admit, gets you basically no innocence points. So please, don't act like bussing your mafia partner is such a complicated and rare maneuver. This is a freaking mafia game, you've all seen this same BS before. You've also seen it fail enough times, because it wasn't done convincingly. So, someone does it convincingly and now you're all googly-eyed because of it?
You guys need a verbal slap in the head. Get a grip. BSmith is an excellent player, don't act like he couldn't possibly do that, or that I'm a nutter for suggesting it's possible. You're not noobs anymore, act like it.
Zack goes LOLWUT when I say Mergle is a suspect, then he puts Mergle on two different lists of likely scum. You just didn't like my reasoning given, which was that he happened to show up, at just the right time, to join a wagon, which by the way was one of the wagons deciding the fate of a mafioso.
That's what a lurking mafioso might do to spare his partner or take credit for lynching said partner. It shows an unusual amount of interest in the game (no prior interest...) at precisely the moment the fate of a mafia is being decided.
ORLY? Ya rly Zack. He's on your list of scum too, so don't even.
"Conjecture: Neither BigTin nor BSmith are mafia", sez Zack.
Well BigTin gonna die today so we'll find out, won't we? But I'm afraid I need BSmith dead and by lynch, at some point soon. Unless he lynches a second mafioso. No amount of handwaving is going to make me go oh, well BigTin wasn't mafia, so I guess BSmith won't be either.
Other comments:
The case: "He voted for me!"
Yeah? Well what did NinjaCow do? And who was right there trying to get people to pay more attention to Askthepizzaguy while NinjaCow's head was being placed on the block?
Don't act like it hadn't led directly to NinjaCow already. And since his life was on the line, you're saying that nobody on his team tried to get suspicion onto a different suspect? Surely you're not? You're saying they all just lined up to vote for him and wagon him right away, early in the round?
If not, then there are only two other positions. They took no position, or they tried a counterattack. You agree with that much. At least one mafioso took the position of attacking me to begin with, and BSmith was right there urgently pressing for more attention on me.
Now, it might not have been me. That's valid. It might have been JoanK they were pressing for. But the underlying premise is the same; they tried to spare NinjaCow and failed.
You say well, not BSmith, because hey, he did vote to tie it back up when BigTin voted for JoanK. So it makes absolutely no sense that BSmith would be mafia.
Okay, well I find that cute.
I've pulled off that same tactic before as mafia and won those games. And it's not that risky a strategy either.
1) It's just a tie. NinjaCow's fate is still not sealed. And there was lots of momentum on JoanK, who looks pretty darned townie to me right now.
2) BSmith gets super townie points if NinjaCow dies and flips mafia.
3) BSmith gets super townie points if NinjaCow survives, later dies, and flips mafia.
4) BSmith gets super townie points if JoanK dies, and flips townie, and then Ninja dies, and flips mafia.
5) BSmith and NinjaCow enjoy a great distancing for the remainder of the game. If BSmith dies and flips mafia, NinjaCow looks good.
So don't act like this is a dumbass strategy, it bloody works and it's been done before a dozen times. The fact that you would overlook this speaks volumes about how sloppily you're playing the game right now.
You know why that strategy works? Because even smart townies like you will give BSmith a pass for a half dozen rounds or more because of it.
If you're going to bus your partner, you do it to gain maximum innocent points. When is the moment you get such points? Why, deciding a tiebreaker situation against them, for one. But the next best thing is re-tying it up.
Joining after his fate has already been decided risks nothing and these days, you'll admit, gets you basically no innocence points. So please, don't act like bussing your mafia partner is such a complicated and rare maneuver. This is a freaking mafia game, you've all seen this same BS before. You've also seen it fail enough times, because it wasn't done convincingly. So, someone does it convincingly and now you're all googly-eyed because of it?
You guys need a verbal slap in the head. Get a grip. BSmith is an excellent player, don't act like he couldn't possibly do that, or that I'm a nutter for suggesting it's possible. You're not noobs anymore, act like it.
Askthepizzaguy
Know the Dark Side
However, I'll agree that Jarrema and Kennigit could be higher on the suspicion list. That's why they're included on my suspicion list, under the heading "late to the Ninja wagon".
The early death of a mafioso under near-tie bandwagon conditions is bound to provoke the mafia into some kind of action. Those types of actions have been discussed already:
1) The counterattack
2) The late join of the bandwagon
3) Coming out of lurking to help decide things one way or another
The least common move is to not join one of the wagons in decisive fashion; not to vote or to keep your vote on a third party candidate. Scums are unlikely to act this passively when they could either spare a partner or gain points for killing him in a situation where he's likely to be killed or spared by their own actions.
As such, I'm looking for categories of behavior, not necessarily specific names. That's why there are so many people under the thumb of my suspicion at the moment.
BSmith for the counterattack, and then, bussing NinjaCow.
Mergle for coming out of lurking to join a decisive wagon.
Later voters for the Ninja wagon, to gain credit for his death.
That's a lot of people. But you know Zack, reading your post, you basically agree with the general premise behind all of this. You're just stuck on the BSmith issue, saying it has no merit. You also seem to think Jarrema and lubber and Kennigit deserve to be higher on the suspect list.
Fine, that's not strange thinking. I don't disagree except in terms of priorities; I think BSmith and Mergle, you think Lubber and Kennigit. It's a start. I'll suggest that it is worth pressuring lubber/Kennigit/Jarrema to give their opinions regarding the other suspects that fit this category, including each other.
Until BSmith lynches another mafioso or is murdered, he's going to be on my suspect list. You'll just have to deal with that much.
Edit: And yeah, landlubber does appear to be pouring on the flowers and honey a bit thick. I haven't been swayed by the happy rays of sunshine, he's a perfectly legit suspect.
The early death of a mafioso under near-tie bandwagon conditions is bound to provoke the mafia into some kind of action. Those types of actions have been discussed already:
1) The counterattack
2) The late join of the bandwagon
3) Coming out of lurking to help decide things one way or another
The least common move is to not join one of the wagons in decisive fashion; not to vote or to keep your vote on a third party candidate. Scums are unlikely to act this passively when they could either spare a partner or gain points for killing him in a situation where he's likely to be killed or spared by their own actions.
As such, I'm looking for categories of behavior, not necessarily specific names. That's why there are so many people under the thumb of my suspicion at the moment.
BSmith for the counterattack, and then, bussing NinjaCow.
Mergle for coming out of lurking to join a decisive wagon.
Later voters for the Ninja wagon, to gain credit for his death.
That's a lot of people. But you know Zack, reading your post, you basically agree with the general premise behind all of this. You're just stuck on the BSmith issue, saying it has no merit. You also seem to think Jarrema and lubber and Kennigit deserve to be higher on the suspect list.
Fine, that's not strange thinking. I don't disagree except in terms of priorities; I think BSmith and Mergle, you think Lubber and Kennigit. It's a start. I'll suggest that it is worth pressuring lubber/Kennigit/Jarrema to give their opinions regarding the other suspects that fit this category, including each other.
Until BSmith lynches another mafioso or is murdered, he's going to be on my suspect list. You'll just have to deal with that much.
Edit: And yeah, landlubber does appear to be pouring on the flowers and honey a bit thick. I haven't been swayed by the happy rays of sunshine, he's a perfectly legit suspect.
Askthepizzaguy
Know the Dark Side
I just realized something else, Zack.
BSmith and Mergle. Put them together and what do you get?
Bergle. It sounds like Burger. And you can't eat that entire burger.
That totally proves that they're both mafia. Choke on that!
BSmith and Mergle. Put them together and what do you get?
Bergle. It sounds like Burger. And you can't eat that entire burger.
That totally proves that they're both mafia. Choke on that!
Not sure if scummy or just really bad innocent.
Zack
99% hot gas
Pizza:
My problem with the BSmith case is that the whole case seems to be predicated on BSmith voting to tie the vote with NinjaCow (or put him ahead by one, I can't remember which), and the rest of it stems from that vote. I know that mafia can be ruthless in bussing their partners, and that BSmith is a great player and surely wouldn't be the first player by any means to pull off such a maneuver. I mean, let's just be honest here -- if someone has posted as much as BSmith has, you can drum up a case on them and convince yourself they're mafia even if they're the towniest townie in the history of townies. The whole case just seems to me as if it sprung from a hypothetical, "Hey, if BSmith was mafia, that would have been a brilliant and ruthless move to tie up his teammate like that; I'm going to see if I can make a case on him" instead of a more organic, "BSmith seems suspicious, and I think he's a cunning enough player to tie up his teammate like that."
And with Mergle, you're right; I was just pointing out that I thought the reasoning you gave was total BS.
As for Joe, I don't think "Vote: ATPG" was a very convincing case, especially when it came at a point where NinjaCow's lynch was inevitable.
My problem with the BSmith case is that the whole case seems to be predicated on BSmith voting to tie the vote with NinjaCow (or put him ahead by one, I can't remember which), and the rest of it stems from that vote. I know that mafia can be ruthless in bussing their partners, and that BSmith is a great player and surely wouldn't be the first player by any means to pull off such a maneuver. I mean, let's just be honest here -- if someone has posted as much as BSmith has, you can drum up a case on them and convince yourself they're mafia even if they're the towniest townie in the history of townies. The whole case just seems to me as if it sprung from a hypothetical, "Hey, if BSmith was mafia, that would have been a brilliant and ruthless move to tie up his teammate like that; I'm going to see if I can make a case on him" instead of a more organic, "BSmith seems suspicious, and I think he's a cunning enough player to tie up his teammate like that."
And with Mergle, you're right; I was just pointing out that I thought the reasoning you gave was total BS.
As for Joe, I don't think "Vote: ATPG" was a very convincing case, especially when it came at a point where NinjaCow's lynch was inevitable.
Similar threads
