So, I've done some more thinking.
First of all, BigTin is almost assuredly innocent. This lynch was folly from the beginning.
General Olaf and BSmith need to come off the "likely townie" list. Olaf fell hook, line, and sinker for the crappy case on BigTin, and he mapped out the lynches for days in advance, which is a big stinky.
We must follow this course of action and ignore anything else that happens along the way. We'll lynch BigTin today, then BSmith tomorrow, then ATPG. If one or more of them are mafia, all well and good. If not, oh well! I don't like it.
BSmith needs to be lynched tomorrow. At this point, he's too much of a distraction to the town anyways, and he'll be constantly hanging over our heads if he's left alive; besides, he's scummy enough to warrant a lynching. He just seems fake to me. Forced. And looking back at the categories I made, he was late enough on the NinjaCow wagon and he has been raging against ATPG all game. Not to mention, he rolled his eyes at ATPG. Never can I recall a townie doing such a thing. The sun rises in the east and sets in the west, mafia roll their eyes at ATPG -- it doesn't even matter if it is indeed rolleye-worthy. It's a fact of life.
Landlubber needs to go the way of the lynch sometime, sooner rather than later. Mafia always tend to go to one of two extremes with ATPG -- either they froth at the mouth against him (like BSmith) or they shower him with kisses. Granted, no townies except the Jebs do the former, but townies have been known to follow the Pizzaman blindly, although it's far more prevalent in mafia.
Watch out for people doing dumb things, like posting nothing except "vote: BigTin" even though the case on him is bullocks.
Doing dumb things is townie. Remember the infamous words of the (innocent) philosopher, Darth Caesar: "
Nictel Ekolite Autolycus Seon Methos."
As the game goes on,
watch out for people who advocate lynching inactives who will likely be WOGed. Especially people who vote for inactives who later are WOGed and found to be mafia; there's a good chance they were trying to bus their partner. Lynching players who tend to drift towards inactivity is an excellent strategy Day One; not so on Day Ten, unless there has been a suspicious lack of night kills.
Look for mafia not among the big talkers (unless it's ATPG or I; we flail our arms and scream and post in volumes regardless of our alignment), but among the medium and small talkers.
Big talkers will be nightkilled or lynched anyways.
Never be content with the suspects you currently have. Look at everyone, not just the big talkers or vote-getters; conversely, don't throw cases in the trash can willy-nilly. Stand firm in your suspicions, but keep an ear open to the other side of the argument. Only a very small percentage of the players in this game are mafia. If you think someone's mafia, chances are you're wrong.
Don't use silly things that haven't worked in years as "scumtells." You know what I'm talking about.
OMGUSes, third-on-the-bandwagon, etc. That stuff is nonsense, and has been for a long time. When mafia were getting outed every game for OMGUS votes and being third-on-the-bandwagon,
they stopped doing it. They adapted. Scumtells stop working after awhile. Put the ancient ones that haven't worked in a long time to rest. Mafia avoid age-old scumtells like OMGUS and third-on-the-bandwagon like the plague, and you should avoid using them in your cases like the plague.
Concerning ATPG, listen to him; he knows what he's doing and he knows what to look for. However,
be wary of him, and
by no means trust him (or anyone, for that matter). He's one of the best at masking his alignment, and he has been lynched many, many times as an innocent, and very, very few times as a mafia. If you think he's mafia, he likely isn't. If you have the urge to lynch him, consider it. Pizzaman had a three-year-long streak (IIRC) of not being lynched as mafia before Paired Mafia; he's been lynched countless times as an innocent in that span. He knows how to play the game, both as mafia and as town. He knows every trick in the book, so don't throw him away as a suspect because he nabs mafia; he'll be the first to tell you he's ruthlessly bussed teammates before to get massive townie cred. If the heads he's calling for are consistently innocent, remember he's not infallible and that everyone has off games, but also remember that if he's mafia he wants those innocent heads rolling. Listen to him, but be wary of him. Don't follow him blindly, don't oppose everything he does. If it's nearing the endgame, become extremely wary of him. Pizza rarely, if ever, survives to the end of the game as an innocent. He does it all the time as mafia.
Now, a revising of some lists (and these lists are by no means concrete):
Likely townie:
- Diana Abnoba
- choxorn
- Darth Caesar
- Verarde
- BigTin
- Joecoolyo -- Someone should look up how he acted in the Dinner Party; didn't he just jump on bandwagons all game? I don't think he was this brash and careless.
- JoanK
Prime suspects:
Lesser suspects:
Be wary of these people, even though chances are they're innocent:
- askthepizzaguy
- General Olaf
Anyone not on the above lists I either have no stance on, or they are yours truly (I don't make cases against myself, sorry).
Whew! *wipes brow*
That was a doozy. I feel like ATPG and Earthling with the sheer amount of text I've been posting this game.