[BTS] AI World Cup

[Lain]

Based on these positions...

Group A: Pacal to win

Willem founds Buddhism, Pacal Hindu. Due to distance Napoleon will be Hindu aswell, he will also like Pacal due to peaceweight stuff. Napoleon-Sitting Bull to be busy in an endless war. Willem to grab 10+ cities and run Pacal close, but he will prevail in the end.

Group B: Qin (because Lincoln will find a way to screw it up no matter what happens)

Kublai to declare early on Qin who will hold his ground without much troubles. Lincoln should use that time to expand, but he is bound to mess it up. Wouldn't be surprised if he allows Bismarck and Qin to grab most of the land.

Group C: Joao

Boudica and Julius to keep Mansa busy all game. Joao to grab 15+ cities and defend himself in the late-game due to technological superiority. Eventually one of Julius / Boudica will cap Mansa and the other party will retaliate because the hate for Mansa is just too strong. Joao to win space quite early.

Group D: Gandhi

Gandhi grabs Hinduism and Justi Buddhism. Extremely boring love-fest to be converted into a culture win by Gandhi due to most religions and a solid 12 city empire. Justi will secure his rightful spot in the quarter finals in game #2 though.

 

[Kjotleik]

My predictions for Game 1. We'll see how close I get to the real results. Oh, well. My head is on the block. Let me triumph in Civ IV knowledge... or chop-chop-chop...

Group A - Game 1: Willem van Oranje
Napoleon will declare on Sitting Bull. Perhaps sooner rather than later.
Pacal II is in a perfect starting position. He can go both north and south, if he so desires.
Willem's chances lies in the fact that Pacal II may choose to join Napoleon in war against Sitting Bull (and neglect expanding north). If so, the Dutch will grow big enough to compete for the win.

What I think will happen is that Pacal and Napoleon become war-buddies against Sitting Bull. They will both suffer heavy casualties, while Willem stays at peace (to his advantage). Sitting Bull will be killed off, leaving the southern lands divided between Pacal and Napoleon.

With a tech-advantage gained (from staying at peace) Willem will win a war against Pacal, and go for Space.


Group B - Game 1: Qin Shi Huang
Qin Shi Huang will block Kublai Khan, while Lincoln blocks off Bismarck. There is a good chance the eastern and western duos will be friends. The race will then be between Qin Shi Huang and Lincoln. The Goal: To settle enough land that the inevitable war can end in victory.

With Qin's UU coming in time for war, while Lincoln's will appear too late, China will end up dominating the globe after taking over the lands of Lincoln/Bismarck.


Group C - Game 1: Joao II
Ouch. Mansa is in trouble here. Julius/Boudica will want to join forces taking him out. While they do that Joao II is going to grow into a monster in the west. Once Portugal is up and running, he will be unstoppable.


Group D - Game 1: Hannibal
Justinian and Ramesses can become friends due to same religion. Gandhi probably going to found the other early one.

Hannibal will no doubt be the first to declare war (on Gandhi). And even though India tries to expand up north, their cities will be eaten by a hungry Carthage that has better troops.

Ramesses will cut off the expansion of Justinian. Had they switched places on the map, Justinian would've been in a very good position. As it is now, he hardly stand any chance.

Hannibal will end up with half the map (half the cities) due to grabbing Gandhi's lands, while Ramesses and Justinian share the rest (probably 60-40 to Ramesses). Should be enough to put Hannibal over the top, to win.


Sincerely
Kjotleik

 

[Fippy]

Those worker moves..
JC with river corn, but mysteriously moves his worker on a ph in opposite direction.

 

[Lain]

Poor JC doesn't start with Agriculture though, I think? Mining/Fishing or something . + Wheel / Hunting / Archery, but no Agriculture.

 

[Major Tom]

Very good analysis here. Simulated the games to end. Lain and Kjotleiks predictions was so close that it is almost nothing to add.

Game 1:
Napoleon soon DoWs Sitting Bull but loses and is out of the history. Pacal is doing very well and in the endgame he is 20 turns away from Culture victory. But Willem has tech advantage (LIB 1000AD). He takes charge and captures Pacals 3rd cultural city and even make Pacal a vassal. Willem wins a diplomatic victory 1872 AD with a city count twice as big as Sitting Bull due to effective and focused warring.

Game 2:
Kublai did not manage to expand well and Qin was strong till the final stages. Lincoln did not manage to block off Bismark. After this start the whole game was rather one sided as Bismark went on the warpath and made the other 3 AIs vassals and won a diplomatic/religious victory as early as 1520.

 

[Major Tom]

Game 3:

Joao to grab 15+ cities and defend himself in the late-game due to technological superiority.

While they do that Joao II is going to grow into a monster in the west. Once Portugal is up and running, he will be unstoppable.

Spot on guys. Joao won by domination 1876 AD.

Game 4:
This turned out to be a close race in the medieval era. All AI with 8 cities by 1550 AD.

Around 1800 AD it was rather clear that Gandhi was to wrap up a cultural victory. Hannibal was about to take charge and DoW Gandhi. But strangely Justinian Dows Hannibal. Gandhi could then continue his cultural goal and won a cultural victory 1822 AD.

 

[Major Tom]

I'll put up starting position for game 2 in all groups within next 12 hours. 3 remaining AI in each. Maps will be fractal and size fitting for 3 AI's. I reroll if someone is in isolation or other space issues.

 

[Major Tom]

Group A Game 2:

Spoiler Starting positions :

 

[Major Tom]

Group B Game 2:

Spoiler Starting positions :

 

[Major Tom]

Group C Game 2:

Spoiler Starting positions :

 

[Major Tom]

Group D Game 2:

Spoiler Starting positions :

 

[Major Tom]

Predictions - Group stage - Game 2:

Group A: Pacal will develop fast and well by the floodplains, with expansive and financial traits . With Hereditary Rules as favourite civic he is likely to be pleased with the others so at least he will not initiate a devastating war. Sitting Bull and Nappy on the other hand will fight too much for their own good. Pacal to stay on top of leaderboard for the entire game.

Group B: Kublai got horses in BFC but still doubt his Keshiks will do enough harm. Lincoln, on his long slim peninsula, should be able to put up enough defensive positions. Qin is IND and will probably get most of the ancient wonders and capitalize on that to have a fairly easy win. Qins protective trait and Cho-Ko-Nus fend of any attack from Kublai.

Group C: Will JC get contact with Mansa in time? Likely, Boudica will go for a religion soon and be pleased with JC. It seems that Mansa also is sniffing on early religion. Probably there will be epic religious battles between MM and Boudica with JC backing Boudica. Boudica to capture enough land for a comfortable victory.

Group D: Ramesses will be a juicy target for Hannibal and Justinian. Hannibal is forced to expand towards Rames. Will he do it early and enough before Justinian starts rolling? A scenario where Justinian and Ramesses shares religion and make a strong alliance against Hannibal is likely. Ramesses may even peacevassal to Justinian (shared religion and civic). Justinian to be strongest in the later stages and a rather easy win.

 

[Lain]

Group A: Pacal

Should be fairly straightforward. Napoleon will slow himself down too much, Pacal to get all the Marble wonders uncontested and win culture.

Group B: Qin

Problem is that Kublai will sort of like Qin and not stop him. Also looks like Qin will get most of the land. Lincoln will be invaded if needed.

Group C: Mansa

Mansa is up against it, but I really think he can run away with the game by settling all the land. JC won't meet Mansa for a while and declare on Boudica for a lack of better options. The land shape also makes it fairly easy to defend. When Boudica comes with Knights Mansa will have Grenadiers already.

Group D: Justinian

Hannibal and Justi to team up against Ramesses. Looks like Hannibal won't expand beyond 3-4 cities here. Justinian to steal most of the land behind Egypt while he is busy defending himself. Justinian will pick of a weakened Ramesses in the medieval ages and win domination.

 

[Fippy]

Poor JC doesn't start with Agriculture though, I think? Mining/Fishing or something . + Wheel / Hunting / Archery, but no Agriculture.

Deity AIs all get Agri at start

 

[Fippy]

If Mansa messes this one up, he cannot be helped ~~
Huge advantage in land quality (not just mass), esp. compared with Boudi's.
I have seen her doing well often (strong army), but so much Tundra, Ice and desert close.

 

[Kjotleik]

Two out of four in game one is good for me, I guess. We'll see how this goes. One leader less to account for, should make it easier to predict. We'll see.


Group A - Game 2: Pacal II
All three leaders start far away from each other. From the overview map it looks like the best lands are in close proximity to Napoleon.

I'm afraid, though, that this is a repeat from game one. Napoleon will be at war with Sitting Bull, while Pacal II develops his land and advances in technology to outplay both of the other two leaders. With Willem missing, Pacal will be the winner with a huge margin.

Group B - Game 2: Kublai Khan
Kublai Kahn and Qin Shi Huang have some land to settle before the border-tension should be able to develop into hostilities. In the meantime, Kublai will settle towards Lincoln. He can see better land towards east than west. Kublai conquers Lincoln, and the final war will be between Mongolia and China. With Kublai/Lincoln having built more settlers than Qin (and Lincoln being out) Kublai will end up winning this game. But I don't think it will be without some problems. It could go either way between Qin and Kublai. My bet is on Kublai.

Group C - Game 2: Mansa Musa
Julius Caesar and Boudica have less good land to settle than Mansa Musa. Financial Mali will also have a tech-advantage once the final war begins. By that time Julius and Boudica may already have fought a battle. If not, Julius will be hindered in expansion by Boudica. Giving Mansa an even greater advantage. Mansa cannot possibly go wrong here.

Group D - Game 2: Justinian
Hannibal has too little land. He will expand north, but soon meet Ramesses and/or Justinian early. This time Ramesses will not be able to block Justinian from expanding. With the first war declared by Hannibal on Ramesses, Justinian will expand into a snowball position.

If Hannibal wins his war against Ramesses, Justinian will punish him with superior forces. If Ramesses wins against Hannibal, Justinian will be too far advanced to be threatened by his neighbour. Either way, Justinian wins.


Sincerely
Kjotleik

 

[Major Tom]

Results Group stage - Game 2

Group A: 3 out of 3 predicted an easy ride for Pacal. Well, thing went as predicted to a certain point. Napoleon and Sitting Bull had a couple of BC wars but nothing serious happened and by 1 AD the city count was about even amongst all 3. Pacal was focusing on religion and culture. Sitting Bull, well, not focused, as usual. Nappy, however, researched stuff that could eliminate others (and with aid of pyramids he did it well). By 980 Ad he had 2-moving musketeers and grenadiers online, soon backed by cannons. Dow on Sitting Bull was inevitable and SBs maces and xbows was no real match. 1535 Napoleon went in powermode with police state (remember the mids), rifles and god knows what. Pacal had to die too. By 1710 both enemies was vassals and Napoleon could chalk up a convincing domination victory.

Group B:

Problem is that Kublai will sort of like Qin and not stop him.

Spot on. And this is one of the most bloodless affairs I've seen for a while. No wars by 1600 AD. I suppose Lincolns peninsula was not an attractive target. KK had enough with making culture buildings to counter against chinese influental culture. With about even city count for all 3, Qins IND trait and wonders made a huge difference. Cultural victory to Qin 1705.


Just before Qin was about to win, KK DoWed Lincoln for the first war in the game. Strange. Was he bribed? Think we saw something similar in round 1 also.

Group C:
Mansa founded Buddism and JC Hinduism which Boudica joins. Boudica is furious at MM right out of the gates. Stacks of Gallic warriors made Mansa life miserable from early BC.
City count was about even by 1 AD.
But by 1400 AD Mansa had enough and capitulated with 2 cities left. So what about JC? He was not very involved and teched well. Got Lib and was on a cultural path. Pretty safe with a clear tech advantage? Well, Boudica Dowed JC 1750 and trowed in stacks of stacks with curassiers and grenadiers vs infantry. The numbers of troops overwhelmed JC but he managed to hold off for a very long time, despite no oil and pillaged land. In fact, I've never seen such a late victory date ever. January 2026 (turn 452) Rome fell and Boudica was the winner. Earlier, she had too large population for a religious victory (>75%) and no one bothered with mass media, let alone the UN. Attached there is the replay file.


Group D:

Hannibal and Justi to team up against Ramesses. Looks like Hannibal won't expand beyond 3-4 cities here. Justinian to steal most of the land behind Egypt while he is busy defending himself. Justinian will pick of a weakened Ramesses in the medieval ages and win domination.

Justinian will expand into a snowball position.

Correct. If the other game was long, this was short. Justinian made short work with Ramesses and soon after Hannibal who had too few cities to start with. Domination win for Justinian 1220 AD.

 

[Fippy]

Knew i should have voted for Boudi
Best war leader among AIs (see my avatar..!), but i really thought her land will be too bad compared to Mansa's.
If i want fun watching what AIs do, i put her into my games

 

[Major Tom]

The Quarter finals:

Rules: Duel map. Best of 3 games. 2 first games with same map but switched starting positions. As stated in opening post the pairings will be AIs with similar traits or personalities. Here is the games:

1. The Industrialists: Qin vs Bismark
2. The triggerhappy: Boudica vs Napoleon
3. The mystisms: Justinian vs Gandhi
4. Willem vs Joao (at least they both have interesting ships).

I'll put up the maps tomorrow and a prediction. But if you have an early prediction, you are welcome to place your bets.

 

[Major Tom]

Knew i should have voted for Boudi
Best war leader among AIs (see my avatar..!), but i really thought her land will be too bad compared to Mansa's.
If i want fun watching what AIs do, i put her into my games

Hehe. Agree, She is so though and interesting to have around. Versatile and a good ally. I always agree to her demands for the sake of peace by our borders .