ALC Game 15: Ottoman/Mehmed II

[curtadams]

I think the prospects for winning the Liberalism race are pretty dim. You have a slow start, no tech trading partners, no foreign trade routes, tight happy caps, no research-boosting abilities, and you're being advised to REX, which will kill your research until your cottages mature. If there's any time you'll ever lose a tech race, this is it.
(I agree with REXing for the long-term benefit, but the medium-term cost is substantial and must be planned for.)

 

[vale]

We have to find out if we are truly isolated as soon as possible. A fishing boat is a very cheap way to find out whats going on with that northeast land mass.

As much as I hate to say it, if we are isolated, I think its time to run a CE. Lightbulbing isn't nearly as lucrative when you have no trading partners. I might try to run two scientists in the Capitol short term to get an academy down there, but after that I would say go with cottages. I would consider building academies with any scientists at least until you are close to meeting someone.

 

[cabert]

I must add that a fishing boat makes a pretty good fogbuster, and you'll need the boat later for you fish city.

 

[vormuir]

"I think the prospects for winning the Liberalism race are pretty dim. You have a slow start, no tech trading partners, no foreign trade routes, tight happy caps, no research-boosting abilities, and you're being advised to REX, which will kill your research until your cottages mature."

Nice summary, curtadams. It's definitely a challenge! But then, that's the whole point...

Isolated starts are tough. But they do come with two advantages.

One, you can put your cities just where you want them.

Two, you don't have to build barracks, nor must you build an army.

The second point deserves a little thought. The inability to tech-trade means you will fall behind on beakers. But not building barracks and units means you have more hammers to play with. An isolated start is like getting hit with a 50% penalty on research but gaining a 25% bonus on production. It's not something you'd willingly choose, but it doesn't /completely/ suck.

If Sisiutl seems confident, it may be because Mehmed is a good leader for this sort of start. If he were Aggressive or Protective, his traits would be totally wasted. As it is, he gets five cheap buildings, three of which will be immediately useful; the hammers not used for Axemen and Catapults can be used to build cheap lighthouses, courthouses and granaries. And if the UU doesn't get a workout, the UB certainly will.

I'd be interested to hear people's thoughts on isolated starts generally. Which leaders are best? What strategies suggest themselves? I haven't seen a thread on this topic, and this seems a good place to discuss it.

cheers,


Waldo

 

[cabert]

odds for being first are pretty high since CoL and meditation are already in the box. Now it's time to build a library and run scientists in the capital.
The odds for a GP make it less a sure thing, but a shrine isn't something to spit on + if he founds double fish city, he'll be able to run for a sure fire scientist.

 

[Kietharr]

Good advice so far (as usual).

Now, to open a can of worms: SE or CE? I hear both being recommended.

In favour of the CE is a lot of grassland (underneath that jungle) that lends itself to cottaging.

In favour of the SE is a lot of grassland (underneath that jungle) that lends itself to farms.



Since I've mostly improved tiles with farms around Istanbul, I might be well on my way to a SE. Certainly I haven't played a ALC with a SE for some time (Frederick, and sort-of with Alexander). SE certainly offers early-game tech advantages, whereas the CE takes a lot longer to get going.

On the other hand, as I recall, the SE relies upon war booty for gold and popping GP to trade techs. I see problems here already. Let's assume the worst (always a good idea): we're isolated from contact until Optics, and from military until Astronomy. That rules out warring and tech trading for a long time. Also remember that although Mehmed can run larger cities earlier than other civs, he's not Philosophical.

At this point I'm leaning towards the CE, and the deciding factor is my familiarity and comfort with it as opposed to the SE. With all the other challenges this isolated start is presenting, I think I could do without an economic model I barely know how to implement and manage, especially not, in these circumstances, optimally.

However, as always, I am open to convincing arguments.

I'd have to say start running scientists anywhere you can as you build your economy up. The 2 fish+cow city and your capital are prime spots for a few scientists, and you're definately going to be playing catch up now, so you need every beaker you can get. Echoing others, once you're working on democracy, cottage most of the farms, run emancipation, free speech, and universal suffrage. I still think a domination victory would be cool to see (at this point i'm thinking not till you get marines, but at that point people will be starting apollo), but space race is probably the better option.

 

[aelf]

I think the prospects for winning the Liberalism race are pretty dim. You have a slow start, no tech trading partners, no foreign trade routes, tight happy caps, no research-boosting abilities, and you're being advised to REX, which will kill your research until your cottages mature. If there's any time you'll ever lose a tech race, this is it.
(I agree with REXing for the long-term benefit, but the medium-term cost is substantial and must be planned for.)

It's possible. Not being Philosophical is a minus, but as cabert says, at least CoL is already discovered. Next, try to get a GS and lightbulb Philosophy. Research towards CS, as usual, then Paper and Education, one or both of which can be lightbulbed. You may have to delay techs like Machinery till late, but hey, why do you need them?

You don't need trading partners either. They usually only help you backfill techs you are not focusing on anyway. You need GS's.

 

[Tyrant Roger]

I am playing an isolated large island start with Hayuna Capac right now so this ALC should be most helpful for me. I agree with the HE plan and the need for a GPP farm which will generate GS's. That - and lots of cottages - is the best way to play tech catch up in a situation like thiis.

Realistically, a domination win is quite unlikely. Space is your best bet.

 

[Immaculate]

People aren't talking about diplomatic victories. Why not?

You could get the stone, build pyramids, and run a specialist-based economy (since the game wouldn't go nearly as long as it would for a space-race victory atempt). Use that to bee-line mass-media (through printing press and astronomy, not through printing press and chemistry). At some point start spamming confucian missionaries to the appropriate civs and hope to get a vote before too many civs assume free religion.
This is just my thoughts, but i am more interesting in learning why others are not interested in a diplomatic victory attempt. Too difficult? If so, why? Or is it too boring?


On a partially un-related note...
if one were to run a specialist-economy in this case (lets say you got the pyramids for example), would it be worthwhile to reseach drama, build theatres and run 20% culture?
what about doing the same thing with a cottage-base?

 

[cabert]

People aren't talking about diplomatic victories. Why not?

You could get the stone, build pyramids, and run a specialist-based economy (since the game wouldn't go nearly as long as it would for a space-race victory atempt). Use that to bee-line mass-media (through printing press and astronomy, not through printing press and chemistry). At some point start spamming confucian missionaries to the appropriate civs and hope to get a vote before too many civs assume free religion.
This is just my thoughts, but i am more interesting in learning why others are not interested in a diplomatic victory attempt. Too difficult? If so, why? Or is it too boring?


On a partially un-related note...
if one were to run a specialist-economy in this case (lets say you got the pyramids for example), would it be worthwhile to reseach drama, build theatres and run 20% culture?
what about doing the same thing with a cottage-base?

running a specialist economy will be hard here!
only a handful of food heavy cities, as far as I know.

edit : I see 7 potential reasonable food cities (= able to run at least 2 scientists)

 

[oyzar]

I would advocate a CE with 1-3 GP farms largly focused on getting great specialists for lightbulbing and academies. Lets face it, the most likely win condition is space race. Get those cities proerply set up and just start aiming for the stars. Cottages are better in the lategame and the midgame doesnt matter that much. I guess what i am advocating is a HE.

 

[CivSetä]

Interesting game. I suggest beelining to liberalism, you can do it without trading partners, as aelf mentioned you need trade just to backfill. And you can backfill later.

In my opinion hybrid economy is best option, get fishing village up asap. It can give you 1-2 scientist to lightbulb, perhaps you could get your first (and easiest) GS from there? You probably don't want to have scientist on your capital all the time, so second GS city will definitely help.

I don't think that you can afford many cities yet. Just build fishing village and maybe grab stone for wonders and walls, but stop then for a while. Cottaging all that jungle will benefit your empire one day, but not yet.

First thing you should do is still build a workboat and check what lies behind the island, it can make a difference.

 

[r_rolo1]

People aren't talking about diplomatic victories. Why not?

You could get the stone, build pyramids, and run a specialist-based economy (since the game wouldn't go nearly as long as it would for a space-race victory atempt). Use that to bee-line mass-media (through printing press and astronomy, not through printing press and chemistry). At some point start spamming confucian missionaries to the appropriate civs and hope to get a vote before too many civs assume free religion.
This is just my thoughts, but i am more interesting in learning why others are not interested in a diplomatic victory attempt. Too difficult? If so, why? Or is it too boring?

I think diplomatic is going to be hard in this game, because when S reaches Optics, most probably the other civs already have a state religion, most problably widespreaded in their cities. Not only S would have to had a lot work and lost hammers to convert them, but it would put him in the "worst enemy list" of someone. In diplomatic terms I think that the path is to stir religious wars in the other(s) continent(s) to try to stop the AI teching.

P.S.Maybe keeping our state religion and Sankore/spiral minaret could be a good move.Thoughts?

 

[cabert]

P.S.Maybe keeping our state religion and Sankore/spiral minaret could be a good move.Thoughts?

interesting!
SM is a bit far away, but Sankore is in the liberalism beeline, and his certainly doable.

 

[Dr Elmer Jiggle]

People aren't talking about diplomatic victories. Why not?

I think I mentioned it recently as a good backup option. I think there are probably two primary reasons why it hasn't been discussed much yet.

First is the unknown. With no contacts, it's too hard to predict whether a diplomatic victory is available. To win diplomatically, you really need a coalition of several mutually friendly civilizations. If everyone already hates each other, that's probably not going to be possible.

Second, regardless of whether a diplomatic win turns out to be possible, there's not much we can do about it now. Whether we are or aren't working toward a diplomatic win, the short term strategy should be more or less the same. Once we start meeting people, then we'll need to be careful about our dealings with them, but for now it really doesn't matter. There are really only two things I can think of that we can do now that might affect our chances for a diplomatic victory.

We could aggressively research toward Philosophy and Divine Right (and Theology? Has Christianity been founded?) in order to reduce the amount of religious diversity in the world. That would improve our chances of finding a bloc of allies that we can court as our diplomatic coalition. It might already be too late for that anyway, with Hinduism, Buddhism, and Judaism already loose in the field, but it's an idea. Either way, I think that path has already been suggested since it plays well into a cultural victory, so I don't see that as a strictly diplomatic strategy.

We could also make a case that the Optics / Astronomy beeline would be beneficial for diplomacy. That would get us earlier contact which would give us more time to develop good relations. That's a valid point, but I think you could just as easily argue that the other way. The earlier you meet everyone, the more time you have for them to hate you for your religious differences before you switch to Free Religion and/or to suck you into unwanted wars. I think you could go either way on this one. I'd be inclined to ignore this issue, especially since I'm of the opinion that the Optics beeline isn't really beneficial to our other options.

I'm a big fan of the diplomatic victory, and I think Sisiutil has only done it once in the ALC's and that only after a lot of prodding . This might be an opportunity to notch diplomatic victory #2, but it's way too early to tell or to do anything about it.

 

[gallego]

Two, you don't have to build barracks, nor must you build an army.

What if an AI suddenly lands on your shores with a huge stack? You never know when you might meet them and they could pounce quickly if they are aggressive.

 

[Whitefire]

It's possible. Not being Philosophical is a minus, but as cabert says, at least CoL is already discovered. Next, try to get a GS and lightbulb Philosophy. Research towards CS, as usual, then Paper and Education, one or both of which can be lightbulbed. You may have to delay techs like Machinery till late, but hey, why do you need them?

You don't need trading partners either. They usually only help you backfill techs you are not focusing on anyway. You need GS's.

My problem with that is we need techs like Iron Working, Maths, Currency and Calendar before beelining to Liberalism. We could probably live without the last two, but skipping IW and Maths would be shooting ourselves in the foot. This much of a divergence from the beeline, coupled with the expected tanking of researching from REX, makes Liberalism really iffy, even though we have an edge with CoL. Then again, we might as well go for it anyway. Free Speech will be important for the Towns we have, and free religion will probably outweigh the benefits of Pacifism by then. Add in being just a stone's throw from Emancipation and gaining access to useful wonders like U of S and Statue of Liberty, and the Liberalism path seems like a good choice in spite of the chance that we may lose the free tech.

I'm so good at contradicting myself.

And enough with the debate! Lets see some action!

 

[aelf]

My problem with that is we need techs like Iron Working, Maths, Currency and Calendar before beelining to Liberalism. We could probably live without the last two, but skipping IW and Maths would be shooting ourselves in the foot. This much of a divergence from the beeline, coupled with the expected tanking of researching from REX, makes Liberalism really iffy, even though we have an edge with CoL.

Only IW seems to be really necessary, given all the jungle around. I guess it has to be inserted somewhere (before CS?). Calendar is really unimportant, since it will only give you sugar. You have to live without Monarchy, that's true, but it should be bearable on Monarch.

 

[Immaculate]

I think I mentioned it recently as a good backup option. I think there are probably two primary reasons why it hasn't been discussed much yet.

First is the unknown. With no contacts, it's too hard to predict whether a diplomatic victory is available. To win diplomatically, you really need a coalition of several mutually friendly civilizations. If everyone already hates each other, that's probably not going to be possible.

Second, regardless of whether a diplomatic win turns out to be possible, there's not much we can do about it now. Whether we are or aren't working toward a diplomatic win, the short term strategy should be more or less the same. Once we start meeting people, then we'll need to be careful about our dealings with them, but for now it really doesn't matter. There are really only two things I can think of that we can do now that might affect our chances for a diplomatic victory.

We could aggressively research toward Philosophy and Divine Right (and Theology? Has Christianity been founded?) in order to reduce the amount of religious diversity in the world. That would improve our chances of finding a bloc of allies that we can court as our diplomatic coalition. It might already be too late for that anyway, with Hinduism, Buddhism, and Judaism already loose in the field, but it's an idea. Either way, I think that path has already been suggested since it plays well into a cultural victory, so I don't see that as a strictly diplomatic strategy.

We could also make a case that the Optics / Astronomy beeline would be beneficial for diplomacy. That would get us earlier contact which would give us more time to develop good relations. That's a valid point, but I think you could just as easily argue that the other way. The earlier you meet everyone, the more time you have for them to hate you for your religious differences before you switch to Free Religion and/or to suck you into unwanted wars. I think you could go either way on this one. I'd be inclined to ignore this issue, especially since I'm of the opinion that the Optics beeline isn't really beneficial to our other options.

I'm a big fan of the diplomatic victory, and I think Sisiutil has only done it once in the ALC's and that only after a lot of prodding . This might be an opportunity to notch diplomatic victory #2, but it's way too early to tell or to do anything about it.

You and I seem to be of the same mind on this in general. I started a shadow game (posted in the Mehmed spoiler thread) to try and see what i could do with the same start.

In regards to the optics/astronomy bee-line, my thoughts were to get to caravels and organized religion as fast as possible (i'll get optics 46 turns after 10bc, whatever that is), so as to start exporting my religion as much as possible to potential allies as early as possible.

I was reading some of the SGOTM-3s, and the winning games seem to put out a very steady missionary output.

In regards to the comment regarding founding religions... do you think that if you hit them early and hard enough (with missionaries) you really need to hog all the religions? Don't they serve a purpose by dividing other civs into blocs and preventing their cooperation? Maybe it depends on how many missionaries you are willing to build?

 

[Whitefire]

Only IW seems to be really necessary, given all the jungle around. I guess it has to be inserted somewhere (before CS?).

And Maths? The UB will be vital in making the GP farms all that they can be. Although, now that I think about it, Maths is a prereq for education, isn't it?