ALC Game 15: Ottoman/Mehmed II

[cabert]

it's too late now to do anything to be nice to monte or catherine (she's the only one who would attack even if friendly btw).
If you could bribe someone vs monte, you can delay his attack. But being 20 techs back makes this rather unlikely...
Are you working towards your scientists (lightbulb education to open up gunpowder)?

 

[Ecofarm]

I blame the barbs. I also, however, think that whipping wonders is too costly. How often do you guys whip wonders?

 

[Civman123]

Let's grab some gunpowder and make Monty look like a fool!

 

[oyzar]

how long til you can get a scientist? That would probably be able to lightbulbphilosophy and trade for construation at aleast and hopefully paper and maxhinery too..

 

[Charou]

it's too late now to do anything to be nice to monte or catherine (she's the only one who would attack even if friendly btw).

Really? does she do that ? I was under the impression that a friendly relationship meant no backstabbing, whereas pleased could be trouble with low power.

Let's grab some gunpowder and make Monty look like a fool!

Are we finally put the UU to use, in what might be a critical struggle for survival ? A couple of rounds before, we definitely heard people asking for a restart in order to see some janissaries action. Might not be necessary, after all.

 

[Dr Elmer Jiggle]

Have you tried begging yet? You have 3 pleased AI's that haven't given you anything yet. If you can scam Calendar and/or Construction from an AI, you'd be in much better shape.

 

[vormuir]

Charou -- Some AI leaders are more treacherous than others. So, ANY leader can attack when "Cautious"; SOME leaders can attack when "Pleased"; but only a few particularly sneaky leaders may launch a war against you even when "Friendly".

Catherine is one of those sneaky AI leaders. (Elizabeth is another.) Oh, she's less /likely/ to stab you if she likes you, but she still might.

So, the only way to be sure you're safe from her is to be stronger. Not an option here, alas.

BTW, there's a similar distribution WRT to power. That is, most AIs won't attack you if you're stronger -- but there are a couple of crazy-butt leaders who will. (Mr. Montezuma, pick up your phone.)


Waldo

 

[jerVL/kg]

Monty doesn't have Astronomy, so if he's already planning to attack somebody, it probably isn't you. Catherine can attack, which is scary, but you did give her tribute, which helps. (I hope you sold your map to everyone else the same turn you gave it to her, so you could get something for it...) Who's her worst enemy? If it's Freddy, he's the one likely to get dogpiled, and you're safe...for now.

Of course, if (when) war breaks out, expect to have everyone begging you to join in on their side. A great opportunity to improve relations with some (and ruin others) so you'll have to decide if it's worth getting involved.

I'm baffled as to why your GNP is in the toilet -- was the barbarian rush really that bad? Hmmmm...didn't somebody suggest chopping The Great Wall?

Since you have many civs "Pleased" with you, see if you can beg some techs from them. Hopefully you can get Poly/Mono (you need OR in a BAD way!!) and possibly Alphabet (to build Research). Try to beg a map from somebody, too -- it's critical to know where everybody is.

I don't see any reason to switch religions unless you want to goose up relations with the Buddhist bloc, and possibly sign a DP when it's available (Ragnar would be a good choice) -- Cathy's founded Islam, so she's likely to go Free Religion soon. Not a lot you can do about heathen Monty...but like others said, if the AI's already planning to attack you, switching to NSR probably won't deter them now.

Good luck with the next few centuries...you'll need it!

 

[OTAKUjbski]

how long til you can get a scientist? That would probably be able to lightbulbphilosophy and trade for construation at aleast and hopefully paper and maxhinery too..

We'll have a 66% chance 7 turns from now in Istanbul. If we add any other specialist, we can bump it up by 2 turns (my recommendation is a Merchant).

Monty doesn't have Astronomy, so if he's already planning to attack somebody, it probably isn't you. Catherine can attack, which is scary, but you did give her tribute, which helps. (I hope you sold your map to everyone else the same turn you gave it to her, so you could get something for it...) Who's her worst enemy? If it's Freddy, he's the one likely to get dogpiled, and you're safe...for now.

I think he's right. I didn't check the Resources tab last night. However, after looking at it just now, Monty and HC are both disconnected from the trade route -- which means they don't have Astronomy.

That should buy us at least a few turns.

 

[oyzar]

both konya and Giazantep are working a mine when they would be working a cottage both to speed up growth and commerce. why are your workers improving around Giazantep when edirne and ankara both need more cottages badly(they are allready big enough to work more! Bursa could easily work 4 cottages if they just were there. Samsun could also work 2 more cottages if they were just built. You need more workers badly... thats 10 cottages your not working that you should be! Not to mention that your capital could easily work 4 cottages more too.. Your paying 9 in unit cost each turn. This could easily be reduced a bit by disbanding 3 warriors. Neither fredrick nor ragnar have philosophy yet. Lets hope that is the case when you hopefully spawn a scientist in 7 turns. You dont need silk yet. Way better to trade for 11 gold from catherine each turn... Also keeping these ships is only costing you more gold than the fishing nets they protect give you. Who are you deluding? You are not gonna protect from galleons with triemes... Just delete them. Everyone have construction. You can trade for it. You are not gonna beat macemen with axemen no matter how hard you try. Just research a couple turns on 0 research towards it i supose while praying hard for a scientists to pop philosophy(so you can trade for some techs) and then use the saved up gold to go towards nationalism.

Here is a save with some changes and notes.

 

[sylvanllewelyn]

Elizabeth the backstabber? I never knew that. I never was the receiving end of that, and thank goodness, because her traits could make a technological nightmare.

As for gunpowder... like I said, don't bother with military, as you need to build up and just try to win, or go down in flames. Monty might attack Freddy now, and you'll probably be the next target, by which point you'll need more than rifleman.

 

[Scaphism]

Have you tried begging yet? You have 3 pleased AI's that haven't given you anything yet. If you can scam Calendar and/or Construction from an AI, you'd be in much better shape.

Seconded. You don't get a demerit for begging, just for bullying and demanding tribute.
Start asking, they may be more than willing to give you Construction. The AI seems to be able to sense when you've put a bit of research into the tech, offering more reasonable trades.

Monty might attack Freddy now, and you'll probably be the next target, by which point you'll need more than rifleman.

Also seconded. I can't check here, but if Monty is asking you to cancel trades with Freddy then maybe Freddy is his worst enemy/poor sap he's planning to attack.

I don't think Organized Religion is needed now, particularly since a switch to a different religion or no state religion could be imminent.

I also support selling your map if possible, and trading your resources for gold in the meantime. That means Pig-Cow with Freddy and maybe Silk-Cow with Cathy.

OTAKUjbski's Crutch city sounds like a decent idea, if we can afford to produce a settler now. I don't think the NE island is feasible - it would require a Settler, Worker(s) (chopping and improving tiles), Missionary (Border pop - do we even have a monastery?), and garrison troops. Which would probably mean two galleys to get everything over there, and even then it'll be ~20 turns minimum before you can get all those units over there, plus another 15 or so for chopping.

While it would be nice to claim that island (and keep it away from the AI), I think the priorities right now are:
1) Researching as quickly as possible to make up ground.
2) Building some troops to deal with potential (imminent?) invasions and bolster power rating to stall them.

The argument in favor of settling the island is that it keeps it from the AI (which it won't, they'll settle the other spot near the fish before you can claim it) and it's another city to boost you down the road.

IIRC, you have a sizable landmass already, if not the most land area then very close. While more land is better, will that island be the tipping point that allows you to win the space race? Will it be decisive in boosting research or trade opportunities?
I think that if you're going to win the race, you can probably do it with the land you already have and going after that area would be spending crucial resources right now. Hammers should be going towards crucial infrastructure (forges, courthouses, libraries, lighthouses and harbors where appropriate) and workers (hammers + food) to develop tiles for those cities. More cities will stretch your resources thinner and slow the development of your core even futher.

I think Sisiutil did a good job in the last short round, the builds looked good, the trading/diplomatic situation was handled very well, just a few more trades for gold would be ideal.

 

[Neoclast]

With getting the important people to pleased I would not worry as much about the religion. I would definitely switch to Bud if asked though.

I would also see who else is feeling generous now that you are pleased with them. Go in and start asking for those old techs that are cheap. If you get lucky you might get a few, and since your pleased the worst you will get is a slap across the face from Catherine.

 

[Sir Dale]

First time poster. I am only a noble player and do not have the skill of all of the posters here. I have enjoyed and learn a lot from the ALC games. It seems that if or (when) attacked it will be by overwhelming odds (at best knights and maceman VS axemen archers spearmen and cats). It would seem that building a navy and attacking the galleons will give you better odds. You use cats as throw away units to weaken the attackers so less strong units have a fighting chance. Could you do the same with your weaker navy. Sink a galleon full of Knights (4) might take four ships but the payoff would be better than having to fight the knights on land. Just a thought..

 

[Dr Elmer Jiggle]

Could you do the same with your weaker navy. Sink a galleon full of Knights (4) might take four ships but the payoff would be better than having to fight the knights on land. Just a thought..

Interesting idea. I think the main problem is that you're not likely to encounter a single, isolated galleon all by itself. If there's a stack of two or three, the least injured ones would defend the stack each time you attack. It could easily take two or three suicides per ship before you can even kill one. Against three galleons, that's a lot of suicides.

One secondary problem is that we don't know where anyone is, so we don't know which direction they'll be coming from. That means we'd probably need not just one fleet of about a dozen galleys but two -- one on each coast!

Another secondary problem is that the AI's might not be as far away from Chemistry as we'd like to hope. If they get frigates, it doesn't matter how many galleys you throw at them, you're not killing anybody.

 

[Civman123]

I'll bet you Cathy's coming for us. Since it is unlikely we'll reach gunpowder in time to stop anything. Jannisaries aren't really a match for grenadiers anyway .Monty is less likely.
Right now it looks like if we want to survive, we NEED to get Friendly with her. Switch to Budha and hope for the best.

 

[Validator]

Another secondary problem is that the AI's might not be as far away from Chemistry as we'd like to hope.

They're actually there already. I opened up the Diplo screen for each AI to see if there was anything helpful to be seen and was surprised by Ragnar's greeting: "Fear my Grenadier" . It turns out that Huayna also has Grens, while the rest have knights as their best unit except for Monty who's fielding muskets. Since Monty has Guilds I'm assuming this means he doesn't have horses. Good news unless it makes him more likely to research Chemistry.

Overall this is a tough situation to judge. Sisiutil is way behind in techs but has the most cities (no AI has more than 9). While we don't know what the AI's land looks like yet it isn't likely to be more cottageable than Sisiutil's continent. So Sisiutil will probably have the best economy in the late game, if he survives until then.

The question at this point seems to be whether to try and beeline a military tech to give some chance of surviving an invasion or beeline Democracy to get the economy going. Given the AI's level of advancement I don't think gunpowder is going to be enough to provide a solid defense. Remember that Janissaries bonuses are all applicable against units from earlier eras; they have no bonus against gunpowder units. I'm thinking Steel for cannons would probably be necessary to provide some degree of comfort.

At this point I think I'd be in favor of going for Democracy first and risking the invasion. One thing that could help a bit on the military side (just a tiny bit) is that Machinery is a pre-req for Printing Press and therefore it's needed for Democracy. I would look to get it soon so that Maces will be available.

A few things for Sisiutil:

Now that you're running Bureaucracy Istanbul should be working all its cottaged tiles. You don't need hammers there at the moment.

If Istanbul produces a GS in several turns presumably you'll be using it for Philosophy. At the moment both Ragnar and Freddy don't have that tech, so you may be able to trade it. I think you'll get better deals from them if you can bump them up to Friendly, so this is another point in favor of switching to Buddhism ASAP.

Ragnar has a corn available and he needs rice. You've traded one of your spare rice to Cyrus for 2 gpt. I would cancel that trade and get the corn. Remember that you have other means (HR and culture) to provide happiness, but you're going to need health resources for your cities to reach there maximum potential. A +2 corn is too juicy to pass up. (Someone suggested trading resources for gold at this point since you don't need the health or happiness from resources right at the moment. The problem with that is that the resource may not be available later when you need it.)

With the pending health concerns in mind you'll want to think twice before chopping any forests.

 

[Civman123]

If Istanbul produces a GS in several turns presumably you'll be using it for Philosophy. At the moment both Ragnar and Freddy don't have that tech, so you may be able to trade it. I think you'll get better deals from them if you can bump them up to Friendly, so this is another point in favor of switching to Buddhism ASAP.

A couple things:
1. Are we putting our hopes in getting a GS? This could be our end if Istanbul
gets unlucky and produces a GP.

2. Grenadiers? THAT is why we need to convert religions and pray!

3. While in anarchy, even though GPP aren't increased the chances for a GS is. I wish we were in Caste System, but we can't afford another turn of anarchy.

 

[Dr Elmer Jiggle]

Ragnar's greeting: "Fear my Grenadier"

I do! I do!

Given the AI's level of advancement I don't think gunpowder is going to be enough to provide a solid defense. Remember that Janissaries bonuses are all applicable against units from earlier eras; they have no bonus against gunpowder units. I'm thinking Steel for cannons would probably be necessary to provide some degree of comfort.

At this point I think I'd be in favor of going for Democracy first and risking the invasion.

That's my feeling as well. Militarily, we're so far behind that beelining a military technology is just going to make us a little less backward. I mean, so what if we get macemen or longbows? As far as military goes, our best options are (not necessarily in order):

• Beg for old technologies.
• Get the economy rolling so after we get the really old technologies for nothing, we can research the only a little bit old technologies faster.
• Make catapults.
• Pray.

 

[Kietharr]

You're going to need to build up defenses, with any leader other than cathy, diplomacy is usually enough to keep them from attacking. But Catherine is notorious for being the only AI that will declare war on people who are friendly. You can probably keep most of the AI at bay with shared religion, but Monty is not likely to get above pleased, which still leaves him a good probability of attack, and cathy is going to DoW you any way it goes. Gunpowder may be a good one to shoot for, because after that comes chemistry, which will be nessicary for what i'm about to suggest.

I suggest heading to chemistry and churning out Frigates in all coastal cities and grenadeers in inland cities. After chemistry head to steel for ironclads and cannons to further bolster homeland defense. If ANY AI declares war on you, immediately send your frigates towards them, and block off all of their cities. The AI seldom builds more than one or two ironclads and seldom recognizes a need for certain units over others. By blocking their ports, they can not get their superior land power to you, the AI's ineptitude at ground wars is only second to their ineptitude at anything involving the ocean. Head to combustion ASAP, aim for naval military techs and head up to spaceship techs, hopefully with blockaides you will be able to get some leverage in a peace treaty to help out with techs.

On the economic front, you need liberalism and democracy. I'd personally go for Universal Suffrage/Free Speech/Free religion. Depending on how well your relations with the AI get, free market may be a slightly better option than State Property. Your labour civic will naturally be slavery until emancipation starts hurting badly enough. Once you have naval superiority, I'd say you could probably stop focusing on land military, putting most of your hammers into beakers or wealth to assist your catching up. I'd keep one coastal production city constantly churning out frigates, ironclads, and later on, destroyers. If you sidetrack to industrialism, you can access marines for burning AI coastal cities with fire support from your massive Turkish navy