ALC Game #25: Celts/Boudica, Take 2

[CivCorpse]

I think the best course here is to tech IW next, Writing is not going to help you at this stage when you'll still be expanding and you lack the food surplus in Bibracte anyhow to take advantage of it by running specialists. Sure the research bonus to palace with gold is fine enough but you're not creative either and it simply is not worth the cost at the moment.
You're definitely going to want Gallic Warriors if you attack Mansa in any case, skirmishers are tough and he will have that copper hooked up before you can hit him even on epic speed since this is immortal, pillage the copper then sacrifice a big chunk of your units to take Timbuktu, after that you will have an easier time of mopping up other cities with the gallics.
I would forego the pig as you suggested and instead get the gems up and running asap. Also send out a WB first chance you get to find SB's land and begin trading with him for the intercontinental bonus. With this strategy the best case scenario goes:

a) Gems asap for good commerce boost. Establish trade with SB for best trade routes.
b) Mansa spreads islam to Lincoln and/or builds shrine (even if he doesn't you can simply run a priest).
c) You conquer Mansa and spread islam to SB, then you lead the muslim block against the confu block with lots of cash from the shrine.

Be aware though that SB likes to found religions and will try to get one so it's not certain that he could be converted to islam.

I agree with you on putting off the pig city and immediately flip-flop my position. While blocking the terrain would be nice, the extra cost from a 4th city plus the time needed to actually get it to a point where it could contribute to the war effort might be too much. Plus garrisoning it means units not used for attacking.

I don't think the losses taking Timbuktu are going to be as bad as everyone thinks. Gallics only need 1xp to get G3 which greatly reduces your initial losses against the healthier defenders. As a Holy city/capital Timbuktu is going to have 40% culture at the least. Possibly 60%. But the 50% retreat odds for G3 plus the free cover and C1 means that your losses will be greatly reduced.

 

[Gliese 581]

That's true, G3 gives 50% withdrawal under all circumstances, I thought it only applied when attacking hills. All the more reason to get IW.

 

[kossin]

I'd also go IW then rush Mansa. You'd be in a great position to expand peacefully for a while, then go for space, dom, or whatever fits you.

I fired up WB in a fresh start to see the odds you'd be facing, if you decide to go this route.



G3 and CR1 vs. 40% cultural+fortify+CG1



G3 and CR1 vs. 60% cultural+fortify+CG1



G3 and CR1 vs. 60% cultural+fortify+CG2+Walls (Gotta take barbs into account)

Keep in mind Mansa will likely field some Axemen by the time you are ready, unless you choke him in the meantime - yielding to even more skirmishers.

 

[Soirana]

By the time of IW Mansa will have IW and probably will bribe someone into party which might be nothing to worry about and might be a problem.

In my opinion if play with rush - rush with axes.

 

[Sisiutil]

I think the best course here is to tech IW next, Writing is not going to help you at this stage when you'll still be expanding and you lack the food surplus in Bibracte anyhow to take advantage of it by running specialists. Sure the research bonus to palace with gold is fine enough but you're not creative either and it simply is not worth the cost at the moment.
You're definitely going to want Gallic Warriors if you attack Mansa in any case, skirmishers are tough and he will have that copper hooked up before you can hit him even on epic speed since this is immortal, pillage the copper then sacrifice a big chunk of your units to take Timbuktu, after that you will have an easier time of mopping up other cities with the gallics.
I would forego the pig as you suggested and instead get the gems up and running asap. Also send out a WB first chance you get to find SB's land and begin trading with him for the intercontinental bonus. With this strategy the best case scenario goes:

a) Gems asap for good commerce boost. Establish trade with SB for best trade routes.
b) Mansa spreads islam to Lincoln and/or builds shrine (even if he doesn't you can simply run a priest).
c) You conquer Mansa and spread islam to SB, then you lead the muslim block against the confu block with lots of cash from the shrine.

Be aware though that SB likes to found religions and will try to get one so it's not certain that he could be converted to islam.

It sounds like you're suggesting that I research Sailing after Iron Working (needed for water-based trade routes).

 

[rupertmonkey]

I think Sailing is a fine tech to get after IW and Writing (you'll need Writing for the OB). In addition to the trade routes with Mr. Bull, you never know when those pesky barb galleys will show up. I bet you can finish Stonehenge for real and think you should do so. It'll give you an extra happy everywhere and will save city #3 (1SW of gems) from having to build a monument to get seafood. Build barracks and units in city #2, while finishing the Henge and then a settler in city #1. Then invade Mali as soon as you have enough force.

 

[Gliese 581]

Yes I'd most likely go IW->Sailing->Writing, but it depends a little. There's always a good chance SB gets Writing early (especially since he's missed some of the early religions and might need it for Confu or Theo), in which case you need only have Sailing and have found his territory with a WB scout to start +2 and +3 trade routes. There's also a possibility of finding the last civ with the WB though and if you're blocked by SB's culture and none of you can enable OB you might be better off getting Writing before Sailing to continue your exploration.

 

[CivCorpse]

A lot of "ifs" in the sailing first approach. Writing is a sure thing. You get librabies to boost commerce and you can run scientists when we are broke from the war. A scientist can research Sailing. A galley cannot research writing.

 

[CivCorpse]

I'd also go IW then rush Mansa. You'd be in a great position to expand peacefully for a while, then go for space, dom, or whatever fits you.

I fired up WB in a fresh start to see the odds you'd be facing, if you decide to go this route.

QUOTE]

If you are giving the Gallics the extra 1xp (from barbs) to get G3 then you should also give it to the CR gallics and run the test at CR2.

Even if Mansa has crossbows and mech infantry, the worst case scenario with G3 gallics is losing 50%. So i say axes shamaxes, we ain't skeered of no axes. Die Mansa DIE DIE DIE.....now I must go and take my medicine

 

[Gliese 581]

A lot of "ifs" in the sailing first approach. Writing is a sure thing. You get librabies to boost commerce and you can run scientists when we are broke from the war. A scientist can research Sailing. A galley cannot research writing.

Hopefully a WB will be on its way before IW is finished (it should be a priority), that will give a better idea. It also depends on when (if) a mobilization is initiated which will determine how many beakers can be accumulated before the economy crashes.

 

[batavier]

If you are giving the Gallics the extra 1xp (from barbs) to get G3 then you should also give it to the CR gallics and run the test at CR2.

In the 40% culture + fortity case, a C1CR2Cover sword is actually slightly stronger than a skirmisher an so will have about 60% chance of winning.
This is slightly better then a CR2 pretorian BTW. Now why did Sisutil have
to end up next to Mansa?

 

[kossin]

@CivCorpse
Yea, I thought about it, but in the end figured the ones that would hypothetically get the extra xp might be better served going down the Guerrilla line. Of course, in the end, they are likely to damage opponents less but have slightly higher survivability.

CR2 vs. G3
6.6 vs 6.2 57% (19%/40.5%) -> 40% CG1
6.6 vs 7 25.6% (15%/42.5%) -> 60% CG1
6.6 vs 7.8 20.1% (6.4%/46.8%) -> 60% CG2 Walls

 

[Soirana]

very funny calculations...

How much [in your estimate] galic warriors will get that one extra xp in window from IW to attacking? Keep in mind they need some healing after attack, at least turn or two.

I would say two-three if lucky four.

What you rather have three gallic wariors with some retreat option who will be heavily injured after first fight or three CR2 guys who will probably kill toughest remaining oposition after first wave of suicides?

Add cost of UB which is equal to one extra unit...

Well, of course i am stupid enough to advocate axerush...

Spoiler :

Of course I tried axe rush from Sis save.

Well, by the time i had force Mansa expanded maniacally. Of course that meant low military. Cap had only two skirmishers. Second city [north] was worse due to some axes.

Mansa alos brought Zara to the party. I havenot seen single troop of Ethiopia although.

 

[kossin]

Part of the ALCs is to feature unique leader traits and civilization's UB and UU
I see G3 kinda like flanking promotions on Chariots which can be useful for the first few to attack against strong defenders. Besides, C1CR1Cover Gallics are definitively no pushovers to clean up. Odds-wise, G3 has slightly higher survivability but CR2 has better ?potential? you could say.
In the end it's up to Sis to pick the route he so chooses.

 

[Soirana]

I knew someone will say about unique demonstration.

IMO, best way to demonstrate dun is never build it.

 

[kossin]

Well, the Dun can be whipped/chopped with the stone for some extra gold, and could be useful in a hill border city. Time will tell.

For comparison's sake, C1CR1Cover axes vs. skirmishers

5.5 vs 7.6 13.7% ->40% CG1
5.5 vs 8.4 5.8% ->60% CG1
5.5 vs 9.4 1.8% ->60% CG2 Walls

Iron Working is 375 @ currently 16/turn meaning 23-24 turns until Gallics. So there are good reasons to just go with axes: you could muster a good force by the time you get the first Gallic out the door.

 

[Bandobras Took]

I knew someone will say about unique demonstration.

IMO, best way to demonstrate dun is never build it.

Not even for Guerilla 3 Muskets?

 

[popejubal]

One other thing to keep in mind is that anyone who withdraws from combat then needs a few turns to heal. If you send one or two Axes with Wood I to take out Barbarians, they'll get Wood II after the first combat win. That lets you move around the jungle a whole lot easier. 2 more combat victories gives you Wood III and lets you make real use of the Guerrilla III GWs.

Using the first Great General to create a Medic unit always seemed like a tremendous waste to me once Wood III was introduced. Going from 5 HP per turn healing to 20 HP per turn healing seems good enough for me without needing a Great General to go from 20 HP per turn to 30 or 40 HP per turn. Settling a Great General, on the other hand, lets you build Guerrilla III GWs right out of the gate (or CR II, Combat I, Guerrilla GWs later if you want).

In any case, a Wood I promoted Axeman or two wandering around, looking for XP is a very sound investment at this point in the game. Knowing that you can get Medic I with the next promotion after Wood III is enough of an incentive that you might even want to throw that Wood III Axe into easy-XP clean-up battles when they are available.

Iron Working is 375 @ currently 16/turn meaning 23-24 turns until Gallics. So there are good reasons to just go with axes: you could muster a good force by the time you get the first Gallic out the door.

...and a couple of those Axes can work toward Wood III or even Wood III/Medic I to make the Guerrilla III GWs much more effective.


Yes, I am a broken record.

 

[CivCorpse]

very funny calculations...

How much [in your estimate] galic warriors will get that one extra xp in window from IW to attacking? Keep in mind they need some healing after attack, at least turn or two.

I would say two-three if lucky four.

What you rather have three gallic wariors with some retreat option who will be heavily injured after first fight or three CR2 guys who will probably kill toughest remaining oposition after first wave of suicides?

Add cost of UB which is equal to one extra unit...

Well, of course i am stupid enough to advocate axerush...

Spoiler :

Of course I tried axe rush from Sis save.

Well, by the time i had force Mansa expanded maniacally. Of course that meant low military. Cap had only two skirmishers. Second city [north] was worse due to some axes.

Mansa alos brought Zara to the party. I havenot seen single troop of Ethiopia although.

Actually he can build a gallic...walk it over to a barb archer and get the 1xp while he builds more gallics. 4-5 G3 are not out of the question.

As to the G3 gallics being heavily damaged after the first assault, heavily damaged is better than dead. They will damage the defenders enough that the CR1C1Cover gallics should have decent odds.

And Gallics naturally start with G1, so there is no need to build the Dun.

 

[CivCorpse]

@CivCorpse
Yea, I thought about it, but in the end figured the ones that would hypothetically get the extra xp might be better served going down the Guerrilla line. Of course, in the end, they are likely to damage opponents less but have slightly higher survivability.

CR2 vs. G3
6.6 vs 6.2 57% (19%/40.5%) -> 40% CG1
6.6 vs 7 25.6% (15%/42.5%) -> 60% CG1
6.6 vs 7.8 20.1% (6.4%/46.8%) -> 60% CG2 Walls

It is safe to assume that by the time Sis mounts an attack, Mansa will have settled in his direction. So he will have to travel 8-9 turns to reach the capital. Walls are pretty much going to be there by that point. Even without walls G3 have a greater than double survival chance that a CR2 gallics does. The only time that it is even close is 40% culture/CG1 skirmisher