Analysis: The Opening Game Unraveled

[Unser Giftzwerg]

I have cleaned up this thread a bit (deleted 8 posts and edited a few).

Moderator Action: Unser Giftzwerg and Sureshot: Stop the personal attacks. I would hate to have to delete more posts.

Sure thing Thunderfall. I feel bad for losing my temper. Thanks for deliting the verbal grafitti I created.

 

[Unser Giftzwerg]

Thanks for the research. You certainly invested time in it. However, Lanun (especially on archipelagos) can run quite a lot of hammers a bit later, if:

you get prophecy of ragnarok + religious discipline (2 sea tiles -> 1 prophet = 2 hammer), giving one hammer per tile, but you will get a lot of great prophets

you build mines on every hill and workshops on every flatland, until you reach 2:1 sea : production tile ratio

since the effect of more hammers is reciprocal to turns, your main task is to get from those 1-5 hammer situations in all cities and have a production aimed one (usually capital), for more you can have slavery or conquest.

of course in the beginning part hammers are the main problem of sea tiles

a good way how to decide advantages of each civ could be to ask hof team to make a ffh2 section, or to make some other competition, where the players focused on certain civs can play their best

Valid points, all, Boatman, but you fall into the same trap virtually every critic of my study falls into: These developments you cite all occur AFTER the opening time frame I describe. Critics weave alternate strategies out of prose, but they don't explain how a size 3 city working 2-3 Coastal tiles is supposed to build, (e.g.) Prophecy of Ragnarok. Or how Workeshops are to be built when the most advanced tech in the national arsenal is Mysticism.

I am studing that part of the game where very few techs are known. I am studying that part of the game where each Civ is operainng under almost the same conditions as every other civ in the game. It's that 'almost' that is the kicker. When it comes time to start working towards all these nifty mid-game goals, by then the Ljosalfar are probably already half-way towards meeting theirs.

This game and hundreds like it feature exponential growth curves. If there are no negative feedbacks to dampen these curves, the growth explodes out of control. That's why there are mechanisms like Happycaps. That's a powerfful negative feedback. Grow this big and growing bigger does not help at all. Or Healthiness. That's a milder form of negative feedback. Grow past a certain size, and it starts taking longer and longer to reach the next plateau.

As for my Lanun civ, it would be able to do those midgame tasks. Their coastal cities were in place. By the time the techs were developed, their coastal cities would be producers. And moving a capitol in the mid-game is generally not difficult.

I just went over the Lanun game last night. I was being influenced by the commentary on how the Lanun were mis-played. But after going over the notes, I remember things better. I'm pretty sure that tonight I will demonstrate the the way the Lanun were played, was the only way they could hope to compete with the Ljosalfar in this study.

Now the Clan game, I think I left the Clan a bit short of it's potential on their map. The other three games I felt I got each realm develped about as well as could be hoped for, given the conditions found in each game, and according to the principals I wished to test. But the Clan game was the first game. I think I could have done things a bitter better for them.

 

[Unser Giftzwerg]

Proves what? That the clan is slower in research, that you favored other techs as clan? Your tech strategy was completely different for each race because thats the point of the game.




Why is this, because you expanded without a barb thread, you didn't loose units to barbs? Because you focused on military techs as the elves? By the way why didn't you build drowns as lanun or soldiers of kilmorph as dwarfs. They have str > 2 and doesn't require anything.




Anyone called for me .

What you proved is simply one fact. The elves have a good start provided they have usefull land near their starting location. So does every other civ with a good starting location and strategy.

My biggest point is that you only played early game, not mid-/lategame. You have a friendly neighbor shielding you from barbarians. Try your tactic again on your own, having to defend against the barbs. The numbers would be lower for sure.
Also the problems for the elves start in midgame, they don't have problems in early game. Continue your games a bit lets say till the elohim have at least archers or better crossbows and a religion, then attack them, try to take their cities and see yourself fail. You will need your high production and your hero to cover your insane losses. Then keep in mind, that in 0.15 the strength of your attackers were even lowered penalising them further.

The elves are designed as economy strong, I never said otherwise. Their problems are in their unit's or the lack them. They start out okay provided a good starting point, but they are getting weaker and weaker over time, while all the civs are getting stronger and stronger.

Greets Ghostmaker

Same thing. Why didn't I build Drowns? Well, because that takes a Temple. Why didn't I build a Temple? Well, I did. But They had time for only one by the time the game ended.

It's real easy to weave these building out of thin air. But Civ makes you produce the first.

Useful land? Like what? Grassland, forests, plains and a patch of Corn? What maps are you used to playing on? 99% Desert? I swear, people talk like Forest tiles are as rare as Coastal whale tiles. But as it turns out, they happen to be pretty darn common.

You are welcome to offer some evidence to back you rather assertation that the Ljosalfar grow "weaker" over time. Is it the siege engine thing again? Anyway, that's over my pay grade. My job to to illustrate to Kael and Ko. Exactly how much "weaker" they should design the Ljo to grow over time, as you suggest happens. If you read the first post here, last two paragrpahs, you will see I undersstand this sort of balance. Why I do not undertand, is the insitance of some people to deny what advantages the Ljo do in point of fact, hold.

So anyway, stay tuned. Once I figure out a way to display the development timelines, some of this will become clearer.

 

[Kael]

I read through all of them and I dont disagree with your analysis. I am curious to see the conclusions you draw from this (which I assume is the next post to be filled).

Also, Unser, check your PM for your 'Night of the Werewolf' role and come join the game.

 

[Chandrasekhar]

Solid stuff. I'm eager to see how your conclusions compare with mine. It's easy to forget how much the early game can impact the later game, considering that it's a relatively small fraction of the mass of turns in the game. Just as there are limits for city growth, so that growing bigger doesn't necessarily always mean getting stronger, there are limits to whole Civilization growth as well. National units, national wonders, and city upkeep are three ways that this is implemented, but there's a wide variation of growth even within those constraints. Just how wide the variation can be is what seems to be shown here.

 

[Unser Giftzwerg]

:suicide:

Well, I have finished extracting all the data into a nice side-by-side, turn by turn chronological chart. Now I have to figure out a way to condense it into something I can display here. Maybe graphs can handle some of it.

It's late, this has taken a lot of time, and I still have not so much as loaded 0.15. So the next bit can wait.

 

[Xuenay]

Question - you mentioned that the Lanun's strengths do not yet come into play at this stage of the game. I don't mean to slight the work you've done, but I'm just wondering, how does that affect the way your results should be interpreted? You seem to have shown that the Ljosalfar really rock in the very early game, but does that really say anything about their overall strenght or weakness if, say, the Lanun really get into gear and crush all opposition in the middle game?

It'd seem to me that while this analysis has told us some interesting details about how good the different civilizations are in the early game, we'll still need middle- and late game analyses to determine the overall strengths and weaknesses of all the civs. Thus the million gold question of "should the Ljosalfar be nerfed?" still remains unresolved. (Even if they do seem pretty darn overwhelmingly powerful in the early game.)

 

[Ghostmaker]

Question - you mentioned that the Lanun's strengths do not yet come into play at this stage of the game. I don't mean to slight the work you've done, but I'm just wondering, how does that affect the way your results should be interpreted? You seem to have shown that the Ljosalfar really rock in the very early game, but does that really say anything about their overall strenght or weakness if, say, the Lanun really get into gear and crush all opposition in the middle game?

It'd seem to me that while this analysis has told us some interesting details about how good the different civilizations are in the early game, we'll still need middle- and late game analyses to determine the overall strengths and weaknesses of all the civs. Thus the million gold question of "should the Ljosalfar be nerfed?" still remains unresolved. (Even if they do seem pretty darn overwhelmingly powerful in the early game.)

Very good post! This is only early game and doesn't answer much.

Same thing. Why didn't I build Drowns? Well, because that takes a Temple. Why didn't I build a Temple? Well, I did. But They had time for only one by the time the game ended.
It's real easy to weave these building out of thin air. But Civ makes you produce the first.

Useful land? Like what? Grassland, forests, plains and a patch of Corn? What maps are you used to playing on? 99% Desert? I swear, people talk like Forest tiles are as rare as Coastal whale tiles. But as it turns out, they happen to be pretty darn common.

You are welcome to offer some evidence to back you rather assertation that the Ljosalfar grow "weaker" over time. Is it the siege engine thing again? Anyway, that's over my pay grade. My job to to illustrate to Kael and Ko. Exactly how much "weaker" they should design the Ljo to grow over time, as you suggest happens. If you read the first post here, last two paragrpahs, you will see I undersstand this sort of balance. Why I do not undertand, is the insitance of some people to deny what advantages the Ljo do in point of fact, hold.

So anyway, stay tuned. Once I figure out a way to display the development timelines, some of this will become clearer.

I've downloaded your savegames and comment's. I need to reinstall 0.14, check them out and will post comment's on them later. I'm also waiting curiously for your analysis results and what you will make of them.

Greets Ghostmaker

 

[Halancar]

I, too, am interested in your analysis of the data. Particularly how you will weight the fact that the elves were effectively shielded from barbarians. Were they able to build their first worker(s) earlier ? Apparently, from their having a town...

Of course, just how much a better start makes them overpowered later in the game is another debate...

 

[Unser Giftzwerg]

Question - you mentioned that the Lanun's strengths do not yet come into play at this stage of the game. I don't mean to slight the work you've done, but I'm just wondering, how does that affect the way your results should be interpreted? You seem to have shown that the Ljosalfar really rock in the very early game, but does that really say anything about their overall strenght or weakness if, say, the Lanun really get into gear and crush all opposition in the middle game?

It'd seem to me that while this analysis has told us some interesting details about how good the different civilizations are in the early game, we'll still need middle- and late game analyses to determine the overall strengths and weaknesses of all the civs. Thus the million gold question of "should the Ljosalfar be nerfed?" still remains unresolved. (Even if they do seem pretty darn overwhelmingly powerful in the early game.)

Well, these are all valid concerns. So I'll re-summarize the testing philosophy when I post the last bit later today.

But in short, the "Ljo problem" goes like this: Growth is exponential in this game. What does that mean? It means that once you get substantially behind an opponent, you will forever be playing catch-up.

The thing people have not fully appreceated is that the Ljo did not grow roughly twice as big as the #2 performer in just one category, they grew twice as big in virtually every important category.

24 Cottages built and operating. That's more than #2 and #3 combined. It takes 105 turns for a Cottage to mature. Even if another realm could build 12 cottages in a single turn, they would not have enough populatin to work them all. And even if they did, they would still be way behind on that climb to Town. Ljo already had 6 Towns finished off at Year 200.

That's what makes it an exponential problem. Twice teh existing military power. Twice the number of existing cottage-types. 50% more population points in more cities, all of which have burst past the no-religion Happycap barrier. This is a lead that bursts like a tidal wave upon neighboring civs.

As for the Lanun, when you look at their performance they did rather well. They produced basically the same amount of Commerce as Ljo, and they out produced Khazad in hammers. (And consider the Khazad map!) Their inland cities were solid producers, and the fact I ran Cities 4, 5 and 6 according to the FfH community's Conventional Wisdom, all those turns of sea tile really did add a lot of Commerce. What hurt Lanun was Culture. I had another sea reasource out there, but Obelisks are a slow build for size 1-3 fishing cities.

Speaking of Khazad, no one has mentioned the eye-popping 7,000+ commerce. That blew away #2. But hammer production was only average. Even the Clan weren't far behind. Mind you, that would change soon, as teh Dwarven Vault was about to starrt synergizing with the imminent growth spurt due to a much higher national Happycap.

So returing to the original point, yes, these issues can (in theory) be addressed in the mid-game, where the Civs diverge and specialize into their operation strengths and weaknesses. The problem is, that problem becomes to complex to study. One must take a step back and look at the expected game arc.

Opening game: Civs learn to deal with the wilderness and carve out a homeland.

Mid-game: Civs begin to thrive and grow their talents and infrastructure according to their specialties.

End-game: Clash of civilizations. The various lifestyles and philosphies clash and Darwin announces the winner.

The way to "balance" a game like this is to try to get each civ to enter each stage at roughly the same time. The problem is, all the ducks are in a row for Ljo. They are already specializing perectly as they go up the basic Tier-1 and tier-2 techs.

In my study Ljo was already specializing by turn 131. That's when they discovered Leaves, and went for Archery next. No other realm had the luxury of learning an extra tier-2 tech, just so they could build a Hero. And a "free" hero to boot. Turns out the Ljo capitol could build Gilden Silveric and a Settler unit, in the same time it took every other civ to build just the Settler.

If one civ is always just barely able to built some tier-3 units, it will have no chance when the enemy's stacks of tier-4 units come calling. Unless, of course, that nation is given tier-3 units with typical STR values of 13 or 14. But I don't think we want to see that gross a disparity in the national unit STRs, do we?

No, we want an interesting endgame, too. I'm sorry, but the only way to do that is to ensure no national economy runs so much "hotter" than the others, that it overshadows all the imagination put into the wonderful brainchild.

 

[Unser Giftzwerg]

I, too, am interested in your analysis of the data. Particularly how you will weight the fact that the elves were effectively shielded from barbarians. Were they able to build their first worker(s) earlier ? Apparently, from their having a town...

Of course, just how much a better start makes them overpowered later in the game is another debate...

Yes, they were able to build their first worker sooner, but not because of the Barbarians. It was because they start the game with Exploration so they basically have no choice but to go Arcane Chants -> Education. Since they had something or a Worker unit to DO, they had a reason to build a Worker before a Settler. But that meant they got their second city up latest of all four realms. (The Clan, conversely, had their City 2 up far, far earlier than anyone else.) This is an example of one of the ducks lined up in a row.

As for the Barbarians, far too much is being made of that. I didn't say there was NO Barb activity. It was just was below normal. But Barbs were a negligible factor in all the games.

The Clan didn't have to worry about Barbs at all.

Lanun's only 'problem' with Barbs was their shallow cultureless borders meant they had to kill the Orc Spearman by attacking it. They couldn't afford to let it sit a turn on a FP/Village tile. One city attracted a lot of Barbs, while the rest of the realm developed unhindered. But, I did waste a few Worker-turns moving tothe wrong tile, and so forth.

Khazad had Aecheron exactly 8 tiles exactly east of the Capitol, other Barb cities not too far off, and the Barbs came at us from three angles all game long. PFor all that, prhaps 8-10 worker turns were lost, or delayed a few turns while a road was built instead.

The Elves didn't lose any Worker-turns to Barbs, but they did lose two city sites to their nearby neighbors. Elohim built cities twice before I could reach the site ... but this side of the coin goes unmentioned. Also the Barbs did not flood us, but there were a couple Hill Giants and a Giant Spider stuck nearby. Twice cities were delayed while the Big Barbs were decoyed away, or (When Gilden wa around) killed. City 6 was diverted to the intended City 7 site, because I felt that was better than wasting 5+ turns hoping I could get the Giant and the Spider off the original City 6 tile. City 7 was later built at the desired site, but that wasn't until Year 195 or so.

Add to the lost worker turns the difference in movement on the maps, and it is all a washout. The Clan and Khazad could built cottage after Cottage, Build, move one tile, build. But Lanun and Ljosalfar had more instances where a Worker had to spend entire turns moving.

In sum, the Barbarian activity had no to negligible impact on national income in any of the tests. The amount of worker-turns lost was about the same in all games. Each game features some small delays due to Barbs, though lots of weak units, or a few tough ones.

 

[Unser Giftzwerg]

Very good post! This is only early game and doesn't answer much.




I've downloaded your savegames and comment's. I need to reinstall 0.14, check them out and will post comment's on them later. I'm also waiting curiously for your analysis results and what you will make of them.

Greets Ghostmaker

It's the opening game that shapes the endgame.

Since you don't think studis such as this can tell one much of anything, let me ask you this. How do you think the Design Team will balance out mid-game and end-game strengths without really understanding teh economic advantages/disadvantages of each realm?

I deeply respect these folks, but I do not presume they are omnicient. They need information in order to make informed decisions.

That being said ... thanks for going the extra mile and looking at the game files Ghost!

 

[Chandrasekhar]

Interesting... I wonder how things would balance out if the elves gained the ability to build in forests at Bronze Working, but not before then? Would significantly slow their early development, yet it wouldn't hurt them at all in the mid/endgame.

Also, a point worth considering here: it's conventional wisdom that floodplains are better than grassland forests, even for elves. However, when building settlers/workers/armies with conquest, the food bonus to production isn't multiplied by the god king civic, while normal production is. I doubt this is enough to tip the balance in favor of grassland forest cottages for the elves, but it's worth mentioning.

 

[eerr]

perhaps the elves could get -1 production from forests? I mean it's not like they're gonna do mass deforestation to make production, other civs can get -1 production from improvements in forests

 

[Gamestation]

Well I'm not gonna argue for or against the validity of this experiment. I'm just going to assume for now that the Ljosalfar's early economy is superior to everyone and that will cause an impact later on.

About mid-game balancing, I think the answer might lie in diplomacy. Count up the number of evil leaders as opposed to good leaders and you would notice there are 13 evil leaders and 10 good leaders. There are 35 leaders total. As the good Ljosalfar leader (Arendel) you would have a 9/34 chance that a good neighbor will appear on the map (and be an easy friend), 12/34 chance that a neutral neighbor will appear (a somewhat tougher civ to befriend), and a 13/34 chance that an evil neighbor will appear (will hate your guts). That is of course a "splashy" factor but I think it may be an important consideration for future balances. It is very difficult to manage an empire to overcome the cheating AI, especially when this AI has an unknown potential as of right now since it is still in development is it not?

 

[Unser Giftzwerg]

Interesting... I wonder how things would balance out if the elves gained the ability to build in forests at Bronze Working, but not before then? Would significantly slow their early development, yet it wouldn't hurt them at all in the mid/endgame.

Also, a point worth considering here: it's conventional wisdom that floodplains are better than grassland forests, even for elves. However, when building settlers/workers/armies with conquest, the food bonus to production isn't multiplied by the god king civic, while normal production is. I doubt this is enough to tip the balance in favor of grassland forest cottages for the elves, but it's worth mentioning.

Shush you. You are stealing my thunder. A pox, a pox I say!

Unser Chand

 

[Chandrasekhar]

I'm bulletproof. Sort of like 50 Cent, except I don't rap as much (notice the grin).

About mid-game balancing, I think the answer might lie in diplomacy. Count up the number of evil leaders as opposed to good leaders and you would notice there are 13 evil leaders and 10 good leaders. There are 35 leaders total. As the good Ljosalfar leader (Arendel) you would have a 9/34 chance that a good neighbor will appear on the map (and be an easy friend), 12/34 chance that a neutral neighbor will appear (a somewhat tougher civ to befriend), and a 13/34 chance that an evil neighbor will appear (will hate your guts). That is of course a "splashy" factor but I think it may be an important consideration for future balances. It is very difficult to manage an empire to overcome the cheating AI, especially when this AI has an unknown potential as of right now since it is still in development is it not?

"Splashy" indeed. Playing as the excellent Varn Gosam, I've run into trouble here many times before. Of course, as I use the Order, it can be possible to turn reluctant rivals into enthusiastic allies. With the Leaves, this is not quite as possible (though it does give the brothers/sisters of the faith modifier). However, it's important to note that the AI can easily be stalled into never declaring war, or at least waiting 'till you have a hero or two ready for them. Heh, good thing the team's working on ways to make war more common- hopefully this sort of thing won't be possible in the future. As things are now, oppositely aligned Civs simply refuse to trade with you. Important, but not as crippling as constant warfare.

 

[Halancar]

About mid-game balancing, I think the answer might lie in diplomacy. Count up the number of evil leaders as opposed to good leaders and you would notice there are 13 evil leaders and 10 good leaders. There are 35 leaders total. As the good Ljosalfar leader (Arendel) you would have a 9/34 chance that a good neighbor will appear on the map (and be an easy friend), 12/34 chance that a neutral neighbor will appear (a somewhat tougher civ to befriend), and a 13/34 chance that an evil neighbor will appear (will hate your guts). That is of course a "splashy" factor but I think it may be an important consideration for future balances. It is very difficult to manage an empire to overcome the cheating AI, especially when this AI has an unknown potential as of right now since it is still in development is it not?

Except that some of those evil leaders will likely have converted to the Runes and become neutral.
And if you play one of the neutral Ljosalfar leaders, you get easy friendship with the neutrals and fairly easy friendship with the goods (good civilizations don't mind neutral ones, although the reverse is not true). A diplomat's dream !

 

[Nikis-Knight]

My recommendation for preliminary elven balance is to make their cottage improvements grow at half speed. (Or some similar adjustment to growth rate). Also as I think Loki suggested, their tree farms shouldn't spread irrigation or upgrade with sanitation. These seem a simple, logical penalty that might bring more parity without erasing distiction.
But I must add that I don't play elves too much. (Random almost always.)

 

[Chandrasekhar]

That balance does seem logical when you just consider that the elves are overpowered. However, when you consider how the elves are overpowered, it becomes clear that this sort of thing wouldn't balance them very well.

Beakers
Ljosalfar- 5,663
Khazad- 5,534
Lanun- 5,147

They're ahead, but not by much. I'd say that a hundred beaker discrepancy could be attributed more to chance than anything else. It's certainly not a gamebreaker. Restricting their cottage growth would merely make this number fall below average.

Hammers
Ljosalfar- 4,184
Lanun- 2,304
Khazad- 2,266

Here's where the real difference is. Slowing cottage growth would slow the Arcane Lore benefit, true, but by the time Arcane Lore is researched, all of the cottages in this study, and many more besides, will have long grown into villages or towns.

If we want to balance the elves, we have to do something about how many hammers they get.