I think it's a decent position. Enough strong cities and very safe diplo position. I'd say you can win it 100% if you play it well.
What you need to do now is stop building units (and mostly stop building buildings, too) and gear your empire towards getting a strong military tech asap. Steel or rifling, maybe both. Since liberalism is gone next turn, education is not really a useful tech for you. Universities are just another building for you to build. I think you are overbuilding buildings anyway. I would likely have no rathauses for example, definitely not one in capital.
I'm a bit torn on what to suggest as next tech. Printing press maybe (since nobody has it), but AI likes to go for it and will trade it around. Nationalism? Not on the tech path that I wanted. Guilds? 3 AI have it, so not much trade value. Guess I'd recommend PP, but switch to something else if Sulei grabs it via lib next turn. Anyway. Try to tech and trade towards steel and rifling.
Getting NE up in your GLib-city would double the main benefit of the wonder (
points). I'd start a golden age with the incoming
to run caste/pacifism to get more
. Chemistry is bulbable with GS btw, but education is higher on the list. A reason to skip paper in non-liberalism games!
Resource trades and begs:
- Willem: cancel ivory/horse, corn for 5pt deals. Get ivory+5pt for horse. 2 gained.
- Zara: marble for 7pt.
- beg from Sulei, Zara, Willem. Joao is pleased so could ask for 40 but rather wait until he has more. Sulei was willing to give 100 at least, probably should have asked for more.
I'll play a few turns and post a save showing my interpretation on how I think you should proceed.
Edit: Did some calculations on begging based on Kaitzilla's recent post. Arrived at number 315
for Suleiman with assumption that AI contact happens late on emperor. Begging 300 succeeded.