Thalassicus
Bytes and Nibblers
If you look closely, you'll see lancers->cavalry can only occur with ancient ruins, a circumstance so rare it would not be a serious gameplay issue if changed.
I never noticed AT->helicopters before. That makes a very good case for lancers->AT, since it's not a matter of realism.
Edit: Oh and something else...
The opposite of a 50% penalty is a 100% bonus... even then it's not equal matchup due to bonuses being additive... higher base strength increases effectiveness, and cavalry has a higher base. If the modifier were moved from Cavalry to Lancers it would turn into a 75% bonus. What you have to consider is a "typical" situation with bonuses on top of that (Great General and/or one or two promotions and terrain modifiers). I just estimate based on gameplay experience, this is why I posted the full table of the siege damage change in different situations. I haven't statistically analyzed the average modifier situation of all the battles across hundreds of test games or anything crazy like that.
Anyway, I like the idea of the counter-unit upgrade chain and will implement it.
Changing the promotions is a little more problematic. Right now Lancers and Knights trump Cavalry... changing the promotions around would result in Lancers and Cavalry trumping Knights. This would be countering units in the opposite technological direction, which I don't think is what the developers intend in this particular case. I think just providing the upgrade chain without altering promotions would be more in the realm of balancing things vs new gameplay.
I never noticed AT->helicopters before. That makes a very good case for lancers->AT, since it's not a matter of realism.
Edit: Oh and something else...
Would require removing the mounted penalty from cavalry and in turn giving lancers a (+50%?) bonus against mounted units
The opposite of a 50% penalty is a 100% bonus... even then it's not equal matchup due to bonuses being additive... higher base strength increases effectiveness, and cavalry has a higher base. If the modifier were moved from Cavalry to Lancers it would turn into a 75% bonus. What you have to consider is a "typical" situation with bonuses on top of that (Great General and/or one or two promotions and terrain modifiers). I just estimate based on gameplay experience, this is why I posted the full table of the siege damage change in different situations. I haven't statistically analyzed the average modifier situation of all the battles across hundreds of test games or anything crazy like that.

Anyway, I like the idea of the counter-unit upgrade chain and will implement it.
Changing the promotions is a little more problematic. Right now Lancers and Knights trump Cavalry... changing the promotions around would result in Lancers and Cavalry trumping Knights. This would be countering units in the opposite technological direction, which I don't think is what the developers intend in this particular case. I think just providing the upgrade chain without altering promotions would be more in the realm of balancing things vs new gameplay.