Atomic bombs argument

[plarq]

Here in lies the problem already. When it was clear the Japanese were losing, the US should have offered a peace treaty. It would have been reasonable to demand Japan leave China, though unconditional surrender was perceived as a pretext for depriving the Japanese people of their own soil. It did not materialise though in the meantime, the Soviets made handy use of it.

You can always mod Hearts of Iron to your heart's content. However, if I want to make an event to make US/UK puppet losing Axis countries and fight against Soviet Union, I would give a large dissent hit on US and UK for basically betrayal of allied Soviet and allied with Axis enemies.

 

[Evie]

Regarding the whole "Is it racist to assume they would commit suicide..."

Prior to the planned invasion of Japan, the US forces invaded three islands with significant Japanese populations: Saipan, Tinian, Okinawa. (Iwo Jima, the other island they invaded that had been Japanese pre-war, was evacuated of civilians beforehand).

An estimate for the population of Tinian (least defended) pre-war would be along the lines of 20 000. 4000 civilian casualties are recorded, including many suicides.

For Saipan, estimates seem to be around 25 000, perhaps 30 000 civilians. Estimated civilian casualties range around 20 000, including 1000 civilian suicides on the final day of the campaign alone - the total number being much higher.

For Okinawa, estimates look at about 300 000 pre-war population. The estimate death tolls range rom low 30 000 to well past 100 000 (the USMC and the Okinawa prefecture both estimate past 100 000). Again, a significant portion of that was mass suicides.

Beyond the mass suicide, there was the tendency of the Japanese army to hide snipers and ambush parties among civilian buildings, and even more so to hide them in the exact same kind of caves (turned into death traps for Americans) that civilians also tended to seek refuge in. When you always have to be mindful of being shot at, it's rather difficult to tell the difference between the people hiding in a cave that are civilians and the people hiding in a cave waiting to come out at night and kill you and your friends.

In any event, apply THAT kind of civilian casualties to Japan itself, and the one million estimate starts to sound less orientalist racism, more painful optimism.

 

[Agent327]

Oddly, it is the same. Those are the conditions for peace. They didn't "have to fight on" at all. They could, at any time, have chosen to unconditionally surrender. They chose not to do so. That's completely on them.

So if I offer you a cup of coffee that is the same as when I demand a cup of coffee. If I offer you a house to live in that's the same as when I demand your house.

By the way, after the 2nd bomb still nothing happened. The military still were undecided. They had to ask the emperor (the first time the military listened to him). And after they did, there were still fanatics who tried to prevent the broadcast of the emperor's decision to 'bear the unbearable'.

 

[Goodfella]

1) There was never really an issue of 'unconditional surrender' - the Potsdam Declaration itself contained guarrantees about the future of Japan - that Japanese sovereignty would be maintained and conditions were stated that would end any occupation if met.

Yeah, as far as I know, even by late July of 1945 it didn't matter a lot to the Japanese what the terms of peace were. Hirohito thought he could negotiate with the Soviet Union to broker a deal that would be favorable to the Japanese that would allow them to maintain the ruling establishment while also maintaining their colonial possessions. They thought Stalin would want some sort of powerful buffer in East Asia to offset the power of the US. Of course, they were entirely wrong and Soviet policy had already shifted in favor of an East Asian offensive but that didn't stop Hirohito from prolonging the war for months. However, even these Moscow negotiations were vague and likely wouldn't constitute a serious peace attempt. The only thing that would really coerce the Japanese ruling establishment would have been a major perceived threat to Hirohito or the royal family. That threat came in the form of a Russian invasion and the atomic bombs.

2) There was no military necessity to drop either of the bombs. The Japanese military and industrial capacity was suffering so much from mass bombings that it was rapidly approaching the stone age.

It's quite possible that the Russian invasion alone would have been enough to convince the Japanese establishment to accept the Potsdam declaration. Truman lacked the patience and foresight to know this.

They had to ask the emperor (the first time the military listened to him).

Hirohito was actively involved in commanding the military through the entire war. This was most certainly not the first time they listed to him.

 

[plarq]

We have lots of "what ifs" around here.

1)The junta didn't care about suffering of people in all those fire bombings, starvation and atomic bombings. They're fanatic holy warmongers who believed their war is under holy guidance from the Shintoism God, and his agent the Emperor.

2)The Emperor himself and some civil administrative members didn't think that the war was still blessed by the Divine Guidance, there's always attempt to negotiate for a peace term or incentives to accept the Potsdam.

the possibility of military coup was never ruled out.