BtS PBEM Game - Catweazle

[chasbolt]

To trainwreck, war, oh my.

 

[Trainwreck20]

Catweazle_BC-1960_to_Mikeyia sent

Next turn, battle.....

 

[ruff_hi]

Catweazle_BC-1960_to_Mikeyia sent

Next turn, battle.....

Well, according to my calculations and the battle odds calculator ...

My warrior (str 2 * (1+.2+.2+.25) or 3.3) v 2 of your 2 warriors (str 2) has the following:

me v first one - 96% chance of victory with ave 67 hps left
me v second one - 86% chance of victory

can you report actual battle odds pre battle and HPs left after first battle?

 

[mikeyia]

sent to Slaze

 

[Trainwreck20]

can you report actual battle odds pre battle and HPs left after first battle?

I checked the first guy's odds last turn, and I think he had a 4.4% chance of winning by himself. The second guy (and whether he actually attacks) is all dependent on the first guy's results . In a PBEM game, I was attacked Warrior vs Warrior in a city (no entrench) and I did 96 pts of damage without taking a hit, then his warrior did 48 pts of damage before losing the last 4 pts .

Anyway, your calculator looks good so far...other than the fact that my first warrior's chances are 10% greater than 96% . Of course, it is pretty close to 10% more than nothing . I forgot about how quickly you get that extra 20%. Without it, the odds would be 89% and 69%, I think.

 

[ruff_hi]

I forgot about how quickly you get that extra 20%.

The very first thing I looked at when I got the save was how close to the cultural expansion I was at. When I say '4/5' (ie expanding next round) I was very happy

 

[slaze]

back to ruff

 

[Trainwreck20]

hey, ruff, why don't you wake that warrior and make sure he isn't dug in?

 

[ruff_hi]

right - great idea. I will also move him onto a mountain for even better defense!

 

[Trainwreck20]

Better yet, launch a preemptive stike on my warrior on the wooded hill. It will certainly catch him by surprise....

 

[ruff_hi]

might wait for my tank to arrive before I try that one.

 

[Trainwreck20]

I will give you a heads up, if you're around, to give you the play-by-play during my turn . If your tank comes around, I will make like Mikeyia's spearman and take it OUT!

 

[Trainwreck20]

Btw, you (instead of us lazy people) need to create a battle calculator that figures out a probability curve...what are my odds of the first guy doing 50%?

 

[ruff_hi]

naw - just play and send it through.

 

[chasbolt]

1900 BC to trainwreck SENT

 

[Trainwreck20]

Catweazle_BC-1900_to_Mikeyia sent
Ruff lives......4.0% on the first, 19.6% on the second, but it is all in the combat log, it looks like, including the percent? or do you not see that too, since you weren't the attacker?

 

[ruff_hi]

yay me - i am pretty sure I see it.

 

[mikeyia]

sent to Slaze

 

[slaze]

To ruff, and remember that i took no part in this madness

 

[chasbolt]

1840BC to trainwreck SENT