C2C - Weather Discussion

Repeating suggestion from another thread (per rightfuture's request) that the End of Ice Age function from FFH2 be used for nuclear winter/comet collision/whatnot.

Or for the actual end of the ice ages, we now have the start date at 50,000 BC.:rolleyes:
 
How is this for definitive proof that the ice age had a significant impact on human culture up until 6,000 years ago!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Last_glacial_period
The last glacial period was the most recent glacial period within the current ice age occurring during the last years of the Pleistocene, from approximately 110,000 to 10,000 years ago.[1]

During this period there were several changes between glacier advance and retreat. The maximum extent of glaciation was approximately 18,000 years ago. While the general pattern of global cooling and glacier advance was similar, local differences in the development of glacier advance and retreat make it difficult to compare the details from continent to continent (see picture of ice core data below for differences).


[This means that the maximum extent occurred 18,000 years ago, and it continued until 10,000 years ago. The starting date of 50,000 b.c gives lots of room to do this right]]


Pinedale or Fraser glaciation, Rocky Mountains, USA
Geologists estimate that the cycle of flooding and reformation of the lake lasted on average of 55 years and that the floods occurred approximately 40 times over the 2,000 year period between 15,000 and 13,000 years ago.[

Wisconsin glaciation, North America
At the height of glaciation the Bering land bridge potentially permitted migration of mammals, including people, to North America from Siberia.
(known to be possible up to 13,000 b.c)

Tahoe, Tenaya, and Tioga, Sierra Nevada, USA
The Tioga was the least severe and last of the Wisconsin Episode. It began about 30,000 years ago, reached its greatest advance 21,000 years ago, and ended about 10,000 years ago.

Weichselian glaciation, Scandinavia and northern Europe
Evidence suggests that the ice sheets were at their maximum size for only a short period, between 25,000 to 13,000 BP. Eight interstadials have been recognized in the Weichselian, including: the Oerel, Glinde, Moershoofd, Hengelo and Denekamp; however correlation with isotope stages is still in process.[29][30] During the glacial maximum in Scandinavia, only the western parts of Jutland were ice-free, and a large part of what is today the North Sea was dry land connecting Jutland with Britain. It is also in Denmark that the only Scandinavian ice-age animals older than 13,000 BC are found.

Then, as post-glacial isostatic rebound lifted the region about 9500 ybp, the deepest basin of the Baltic became a freshwater lake, in palaeological contexts referred to as Ancylus Lake, which is identifiable in the freshwater fauna found in sediment cores. The lake was filled by glacial runoff, but as worldwide sea level continued rising, saltwater again breached the sill about 8000 ybp, forming a marine Littorina Sea which was followed by another freshwater phase before the present brackish marine system was established. "At its present state of development, the marine life of the Baltic Sea is less than about 4000 years old,"


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age
The earth is currently in an interglacial, and the last glacial period ended about 10,000 years ago.

During the most recent North American glaciation, during the latter part of the Wisconsin Stage (26,000 to 13,300 years ago), ice sheets extended to about 45 degrees north latitude. These sheets were 3 to 4 km thick.[58]


http://www.eh-resources.org/timeline/timeline_prehistory.html
7,500 BC: The melting of the ice sheets resulted in the flooding of the North Sea basin and the disappearance of the land bridge connecting Britain to the continent by 8000 years ago. This prevented many tree and plans species to invade Britain and explains, for example, why it has only one species of conifer: Scots Pine.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prehistoric_Britain
Because so much of the Earth's water was trapped in ice, the sea's level was about 127 m (417 ft.) lower than it is today. Consequently, Britain was joined to Ireland by an exposed "land bridge," making transit between those regions more practical as boats were no longer needed for the journey. The lowered sea level also joined Britain to Continental Europe by an area of dry land, known today as Doggerland. After the end of the last Ice Age (around 9500 BC), Ireland once again became separated from Britain due to the rising tides. Later (around 6500 BC), Britain was also cut off from the rest of Europe by the same phenomenon, albeit at a much higher level.

this is also very interesting

Current sea level rise
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise
Historically the sea level did not rise to normal levels until 6,000 years ago.
Look at the graphs!
Just notice just how much it was different!

from 14,000 - 6,000 years ago the average sea level rose 100 meters! Water came from glaciers that were receding

The rock record indicates that in earlier eras, sea level was both much lower than today and much higher than today. Such anomalies often appear worldwide. For instance, during the depths of the last ice age 18,000 years ago when hundreds of thousands of cubic miles of ice were stacked up on the continents as glaciers, sea level was 120 metres (390 ft) lower, locations that today support coral reefs were left high and dry, and coastlines were miles farther outward. During this time of very low sea level there was a dry land connection between Asia and Alaska over which humans are believed to have migrated to North America (see Bering Land Bridge).

For the past 6,000 years, the world's sea level gradually approached the current level. During the previous interglacial about 120,000 years ago, sea level was for a short time about 6 metres (20 ft) higher than today, as evidenced by wave-cut notches along cliffs in the Bahamas. There are also Pleistocene coral reefs left stranded about 3 metres above today's sea level along the southwestern coastline of West Caicos Island in the West Indies. These once-submerged reefs and nearby paleo-beach deposits indicate that sea level spent enough time at that higher level to allow reefs to grow (exactly where this extra sea water came from—Antarctica or Greenland—has not yet been determined). Similar evidence of geologically recent sea level positions is abundant around the world.

[Massive lands changes: flooding, land bridges and tremendous areas of low-lying land masses were relatively quickly covered with ocean. ]

So the affect of the last glacial era from 20,000 bc - 6,000 bc on mankind was very significant.

Vast areas of settled land were displaced and flooded. Sea levels rose 100 meters, the north sea basin was flooded , the Great Britain land bridges were eventually covered over.


I heavily vote that we make a dedicated effort to include the FFH script and simulate fluctuating blizzards, receding glaciers, gradually changing biomes and terrain, and dramatic sea level changes which flood or move human cities / nomads!! Just google how many stone age structures have been found in the Great Lakes, North Sea, Black Sea, off the coast of Japan, Cuba, Malta, France, Great Britain, Indian ocean, etc, you will be surprised!
Simulating this could be a dramatic start to the Prehistoric Era, and a great way to introduce C2C!!

Everybody who agrees please speak up, show, and vote your support!!!!
 
I agree completely. But it isn't my area of expertise at the moment. The nomadic start should be completed first so that such drastically evolving landscape can be negotiated without screwing up early city placements. Nevertheless, as an ultimate goal for the prehistoric era, you've pretty much hit the nail on the head I think.
 
I agree completely. But it isn't my area of expertise at the moment. The nomadic start should be completed first so that such drastically evolving landscape can be negotiated without screwing up early city placements. Nevertheless, as an ultimate goal for the prehistoric era, you've pretty much hit the nail on the head I think.

Formation of landbridges (and to some extent division of landmasses) mid-game is a bugger to handle (it often causes crashes currently), due to the effect on areas and trade routes. It\s fixable (and needs to be anyway since this is why nuking sometimes causes a crash), but not trivial.
 
So, if I understand correctly, we can change the sea levels and it opens up new land if it lowers and swallows up existing land if it increases - but the problem is that it creates conflicts in game expectations regarding plots and trade routes? That we can do it at all is quite an interesting status!
 
So, if I understand correctly, we can change the sea levels and it opens up new land if it lowers and swallows up existing land if it increases - but the problem is that it creates conflicts in game expectations regarding plots and trade routes? That we can do it at all is quite an interesting status!
Yes and no. Pretty much all map scripts generate actual height maps and then use a sea level to determine what is land and what is sea. Unfortunately only the map script itself has that information and it does not store it. So if you want to change the sea level later you don't know how high the plots are actually supposed to be.
In a similar way several of the map scripts run some kind of climate model and then places rivers and terrain according to height, temperature, humidity and precipitation. But that information does not leave the map scripts either, only the actual placement of terrain, plots, features and rivers.

So for proper changes to sea level and climate based on higher level considerations the first change I would make is to let the map scripts pass more information into the DLL about these things and maybe even split the map scripts up into different models that can be combined.
Having the climate models available separately would also allow to do recalculations based on changes done by the players.

Nonetheless the considerations Koshling mentions would still need quite some decisions. What happens to a city when its plot changes from land to water? What about resources? Will a farm improvement be destroyed when its plot changes to desert?

Far easier to implement is the method FFH2 uses which is to store the target map and then make temporary changes to it that are slowly removed (or added again) with only an estimation of what sea level or climate changes would do.
 
@AIAndy

You should ask Ori he did some stuff already for Global Warming stuff where terrain changed from one type to another based on Air Pollution levels.

Global Warming event added. This one will need a lot of tweaking. Note: it does alter tiles - but it does not highlight the affected tiles yet, so you may or may not notice anything. This is also a test using the building multiplier, which I have never used before. Chance is 50 times the number of globalwarming buildings a player has. What it does precisely is:
Spoiler :
go read the event python file if you wish to know :p
Less precisely: it mostly does what Hydro proposed.

I actually think this mechanic should not be an event at all but go into the DLL at some point, it is actually quite capable of hogging a lot of computation time with high pollution players. I need feedback on whether it is bearable.

Also what happens with the Eden Project with all our new terrain types (ex. Scrub, Dune, Barren, Salt Flats, etc)? Do they all become Lush?
 
@Ori, Thunderbrd and DH

Here is an outline of how we could make a weather system work.

Storm

Graphic: Already in the Game

When a storm appears on a tile it will turn the tile into the next wet type. Here is a list from driest to wettest.

Normal Chart
Salt Flats -> Dunes -> Desert -> Scrub -> Rocky -> Barren -> Plains -> Grassland -> Lush -> Muddy -> Marsh -> Freshwater Lake

Note that Storms can appear on water titles as well but don't transform the tile. They also cannot appear on Peaks, Ice, Permafrost or Tundra.

Blizzard

Graphic: FfH Age of Ice and/or Any Fun Mod

Can ONLY appear on Peaks, Ice, Permafrost or Tundra.

When a Blizzard appears on a tile it will turn the tile into the next wet type. Here is a list from driest to wettest.

Polar Chart
Tundra -> Permafrost -> Ice -> Freshwater Lake

It will not do anything to peaks

Drought

Graphic: None

Works like Storm/Blizzard but in reverse. Cannot appear on Peaks, Ocean or Coast. Note that Freshwater Lakes dry up to Ice or Marsh, depending on your latitude. Above/Below 70 latitude use the Polar Chart. Otherwise use the "Normal Chart".

Tile %

Here are some tile % on how frequent the events would trigger on a particular tile.

Salt Flats = 5% Storm, 95% Drought
Dunes = 10% Storm, 90% Drought
Desert = 20% Storm, 80% Drought
Scrub = 30% Storm, 70% Drought
Rocky = 40% Storm, 60% Drought
Barren = 50% Storm, 50% Drought
Plains = 50% Storm, 50% Drought
Grassland = 60% Storm, 40% Drought
Lush = 70% Storm, 30% Drought
Muddy = 80% Storm, 20% Drought
Marsh = 90% Storm, 10% Drought
Freshwater Lake = 95% Storm, 5% Drought

Tundra = 25% Blizzard, 75% Drought
Permafrost = 50% Blizzard, 50% Drought
Ice = 75% Blizzard, 25% Drought

Let me know what you guys think.
 
First thing that pops into my mind: what if a strom etc occurs on a coastal tile (land with coast next to it)? Will it turn into a coast (water)? And than, what will happen if those events remove/cause landbridges between continents?
 
On first review, it appears that design structure would serve to polarize the world's terrains over time. You'd start with a balanced map but then end up with advancing dry regions and advancing wet regions and there would eventually be little in between.

I like the thinking, but honestly, I'm not of the opinion, and its just an opinion, that it would effectively work to provide a rational system of the land adjusting over time. Such plot changes would be cool, yes, but perhaps should be based more on a scientific understanding of the processes involved rather than a weather system of this nature.

HOWEVER, it could make sense to do something like you say for temporary changes, where the tile is altered to the new terrain type for as long as the weather pattern is there and reverts after a round or two of it disappearing. FFH2 had something kinda like that in place and it seemed to work out but I'm not sure how similar the systems actually are.

@Faustmouse: Apparently we have coastal waters turning into land already in place somehow and I already have some concerns about those landbridges making it problematic. I'm watching for bug reports to see if those issues can't be caught and solved as crashes are caused by it (IF crashes are caused by it...) Already I'm seeing landlocked boat units in some saves I've analyzed for other issues, and wondering if those should end up destroyed as soon as that takes place.
 
On first review, it appears that design structure would serve to polarize the world's terrains over time. You'd start with a balanced map but then end up with advancing dry regions and advancing wet regions and there would eventually be little in between.

I like the thinking, but honestly, I'm not of the opinion, and its just an opinion, that it would effectively work to provide a rational system of the land adjusting over time. Such plot changes would be cool, yes, but perhaps should be based more on a scientific understanding of the processes involved rather than a weather system of this nature.

Well I was trying to make a system that worked without having to resort to huge weather calculations. One that had by themselves simple rules to follow which on a whole add to something bigger.

I too was worried that the 2 would polarize too much. I am thinning maybe the percentage need to be tweaked so they can chnage but stay around the same tile type. Such as Salt Flats to Barren have 40% Storm, 60% Drought and Plains to Freshwater late have 60% Storm, 40% Drought. That way they still lean towards the odds of being dryer or wetter but they still have a large enough percentage to revert back to what they were.

Or do you think 50/50 is better? Something where it would not have to remember what the original tile was. Since that takes processing power.
 
I... I think I should defer to prime and ask him for his opinion first since I know he's an Earth Scientist. I would like to think there may be a more balanced approach that can take into account some more categorical factors than simply the terrain type that currently exists. Certainly terrains do tend to change in cycles even under normal weather patterns and I think we may be able to pinpoint that kind of adjustment without having too great a processing or heavy calculation method.

For example, perhaps rather than the terrain itself having said chances for a particular weather pattern that then changes that terrain, a region would have a chance to produce a weather pattern that could change a tile within that region. As weather patterns change the region, the actual weather patterns possible and likelihoods change to adjust to the region as a whole. The trick would be identifying the region boundaries and I think his GeoLayers may be the answer there.

Otherwise, we are tending to give tiles likely destinies by tile rather than taking into account any of the tiles around them and the whole biome they are a part of.

The 50/50 thing could work too but that doesn't seem to really capture the spirit of the concept as a whole does it? Even if the 'region' was a matter of the latitude definition it would be more effective, but that should also take into account how close the unit is to the ocean, rainshadows, etc...
 
Well I was trying to make a system that worked without having to resort to huge weather calculations. One that had by themselves simple rules to follow which on a whole add to something bigger.

I too was worried that the 2 would polarize too much. I am thinning maybe the percentage need to be tweaked so they can chnage but stay around the same tile type. Such as Salt Flats to Barren have 40% Storm, 60% Drought and Plains to Freshwater late have 60% Storm, 40% Drought. That way they still lean towards the odds of being dryer or wetter but they still have a large enough percentage to revert back to what they were.

Or do you think 50/50 is better? Something where it would not have to remember what the original tile was. Since that takes processing power.

I know you didn't ask me, but...

Anything other than 50/50 will be polarizing.

You can't really have a drought in a desert. The definition of a desert is somewhere that gets a drought-level amount of rain ie. if it ever ceased to be in drought, it would cease to be a desert.

It is, I agree, very unlikely for a rainstorm (of these magnitudes) to occur in a desert.

In summary, I would recommend not to proceed with permanent terrain changes due to weather. Temporary changes (for one turn) would be great (and already happen of course in the case of storms). And permanent man-made terrain changes (currently called global warming in game but 'desertification' is more what I'm talking about) would be great too. Provided there was some tech etc. to counter it before it was crippling of course.

And while we're on that subject, storms should only last for one turn.

PS: Personally I like the simplicity - please don't overrealisticate this...:)
 
If we do this right, I really think weather will spice the game up nicely.
Weather has both 'Living World' elements which keep the game interesting, and strategic elements which affect units, tactics, warfare, civilizations, and management in a Major Feature way. It is also the primary feature of SimCity which could enhance gameplay throughout the game, like subdued animals, that can add a dimension to C2C and take it to the next level!

I think should probably be a major feature focus for the ModTeam at some point as a priority.
I hope that you can make it a priority at some point in the next year!
I hope that PrimOver's

Geo Realism: Discussion on a new SDK based map generator
http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=474613
and climate discussion can lead to further development on weather and climate simulation in C2C,
both from SimCity like weather features like storms and flooding, to terrain and climate effects.
at least this ties these discussions together.

I will reiterate StrategyOnly's recent post on the idea and code for
HarshWinter
http://forums.civfanatics.com/showpost.php?p=12173558&postcount=1567

and of course
FFH - Fall From Heaven's Winter/glacier receding script
(will find links later)
and
Kevinman4400's
World History Mod (which started to work the FFH script in for seasonal developments).
http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=262780
and his created map
http://forums.civfanatics.com/showpost.php?p=6434217&postcount=42
http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=233586
which is great for the Epic Nomadic C2C game start which will be an eventual priority.
(I will link to it later)

Hopefully everyone who supports these ideas, can work ideas out here in this thread, or in others, as appropriate, and eventually figure it out through ongoing discussion.
We do need more ongoing discussion so we can have it worked out when we are ready.
What do you think?
 
:bump:

What is your take on these things PrimeOver?

The strategy of weather, droughts affecting civilizations, and storms disrupting battles offers so much promise to C2C gameplay. After all, they are a major missing element in C2C to simulating history and strategy.

We do want to incorporate more Sim City type of events and affective behavior correct?

Simulating changing weather has definitely been a concept since global warming became a feature in CIV.
In probably most stories about civilizations, and warfare, weather has been a major character in itself. From the Fall of the Mayan Civilization to the Global Climate change effects today, from Homer to Hannibal, from Valley Forge to Hurricane Katrina, weather is a major factor outcome of strategic history which can sometimes be anticipated, accounted for, and used to great affect.
Let that wind spread fire to that city, let that snow covered pass those armies out, let that diverted river flood out our enemies, let that drought give us a competitive advantage in grain trade, does my water and food source dictate where I can migrate too!

Here are some interesting history and climate articles regarding climate and weather.

Managing complexity and understanding climate trends
http://arstechnica.com/science/2013/02/understanding-extreme-weather-in-an-era-of-climate-change/
"Saying the drought was due to climate change is like saying the airplane crashed due to gravity," Nielsen-Gammon said. It's true, but it doesn't tell you much. So, his team used climate models to try to understand the causes of the drought. One of them was La Niña, the cold phase of the tropical Pacific Ocean, which has historically been associated with reduced rainfall in Texas and neighboring states. On its own, La Niña clearly doesn't produce events like the extreme drought of 2011, so they began testing other factors.

Rather than simply stipulating La Niña conditions, the team put the actual sea surface temperatures into their model. While the event was still unusual, it was no longer an extreme outlier within the set of results produced by the models. Adding in the warming that Texas has experienced since 1995, events like 2011 "become even easier to see."

Tree-ring data show history, pattern to droughts
http://phys.org/news/2013-02-tree-ring-history-pattern-droughts.html
The tree-ring reconstructions of the Palmer index indicated that the Great Pueblo Drought, which occurred from 1276 to 1297 and may have contributed to the abandonment of the northern Colorado Plateau by the ancient Pueblo, affected a larger geographic area than originally thought. The findings indicated that this drought covered the entire southwestern United States and included drought in both the winter and early growing season.
A recently published 1,238-year-long tree-ring chronology, the longest and most accurate of its kind for Mesoamerica, was the first to reconstruct the climate of pre-colonial Mexico on an annual basis for more than a millennium. That study identified four ancient megadroughts and their exact years. Previous research found large and epic droughts over North America during the 8th and 16th centuries.

Dust Veil of AD 536
http://archaeology.about.com/od/medieval/qt/Dust-Veil-of-AD-536.htm

Dairy farming in the Sahara – 7000 years ago
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21428703.300-dairy-farming-in-the-sahara--7000-years-ago.html

Dust Bowl
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dust_Bowl
The Dust Bowl, or the Dirty Thirties, was a period of severe dust storms causing major ecological and agricultural damage to American and Canadian prairie lands in the 1930s, particularly in 1934 and 1936. The phenomenon was caused by severe drought combined with farming methods that did not include crop rotation, fallow fields, cover crops, soil terracing and wind-breaking trees to prevent wind erosion.[1] Extensive deep plowing of the virgin topsoil of the Great Plains in the preceding decade had displaced the natural deep-rooted grasses that normally kept the soil in place and trapped moisture even during periods of drought and high winds. Rapid mechanization of farm implements, especially small gasoline tractors and widespread use of the combine harvester were significant in the decisions to convert grassland (much of which received no more than 10 inches (250 mm) of precipitation per year) to cultivated cropland.
Millions of acres of farmland were damaged, and hundreds of thousands of people were forced to leave their homes; many of these families (often known as "Okies", since so many came from Oklahoma) migrated to California and other states, where they found economic conditions little better than those they had left, due to the Great Depression. Owning no land, many became migrant workers who traveled from farm to farm to pick fruit and other crops at starvation wages.

Trigger for Past Rapid Sea Level Rise Discovered
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/07/120711134716.htm
The process, named 'saddle-collapse', was found to be the cause of two rapid sea level rise events: the Meltwater pulse 1a (MWP1a) around 14,600 years ago and the '8,200 year' event.

Coral links ice to ancient 'mega flood'
http://phys.org/news/2012-03-coral-links-ice-ancient-mega.html
Coral off Tahiti has linked the collapse of massive ice sheets 14,600 years ago to a dramatic and rapid rise in global sea-levels of around 14 metres.
Oxford University scientists Alex Thomas and Gideon Henderson, has confirmed that the event occurred 14,650-14,310 years ago at the same time as a period of rapid climate change known as the Bølling warming.
 
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