They're also benching Alex Smith for Mahomes, which makes the game really hard to predict.
 
MIN dnc
NE dnc
WAS cov
PHI win
PIT cov
DET cov
HOU win
BUF cov
ATL cov
NO cov
JAX win
BAL cov
SEA cov
DEN cov
LAC cov
SF cov
 
Blargh. Vacation prep and recovery makes one forget things. But it was fun, and thanks for doing it Owen.
 
Are we doing a playoff pick'em? If so, please keep me updated.
 
I mean if you guys are game, it's fine by me:

Playoff Pick'ems Round 1:

Saturday, 1/6
Tennessee @ Kansas City, Kansas City by 8.5
Atlanta @ L.A. Rams, Rams by 5.5

Sunday, 1/7

Buffalo @ Jacksonville, Jacksonville by 9
Carolina @ New Orleans, New Orleans by 6.5
 
Chiefs don't cover
Rams cover
Jags cover
Saints don't cover
 
KC Covers.
Rams cover
Buffalo outright.
NO dnc.

Wasn't sure if this extended into the playoffs or not. As you can see, I'm game(y).
 
KC cov
LAR cov
JAX dnc
NO dnc

And we're doing separate scoring. I'll have the final update for the regular season up later today.
 
Year-End Round-Up

Phew! That's another year of regular season pick'ems in the books. Let's start by taking a look at how everybody did. Keep in mind that Light Cleric had a ten-point lead heading into the final week of play, and he made all of his picks, for the final week, so it would have taken something extraordinary for KMR to catch him. Equally as interesting though? KMR and I are separated by 3 points, and Sommer and I by 5 in the fight for 2-3-4. Anything can happen, and with that, let's take a look at how everybody did:

Week 17 Results.png




Week 17 Points.png




So what do the final tallies look like?
Week 17 Standings.png




Had it all the way. Oh yeah, and, uh Light Cleric won, big surprise there, eh? Light Cleric becomes the first two claim two Pick'em Funtimes titles. On top of that, this was just an absurd year. Up till this year Darsnan had posted the best year at 287 points and the second best PPW at 18.01 in the league's inaugural year. Both of those numbers have been shattered, not just by first place, but by the top four finishers. This also marks the first year in the four-season run that everybody eclipsed 200 points and 100 2-point picks. So congratulations to everyone!



Alright, now let's take a look at the fun stuff everybody's been waiting for: charts and graphs!

First, here's a graph showing everybody's points progressions over the year:



Also to further hammer home just how thoroughly Light Cleric stomped all preceding years, here's Light Cleric's year put up against the past 3 winners:


I also have a graph for each player compared to their performances in past years. I'll spoil that and stick it in the next post so you're free to look at that whenever.

In keeping with the last couple years, I've also been digging around in picking behaviors, and we have some interesting findings, and also a couple more awards to hand out.

Fun Awards.png


So as usual we have our Homer and Sharps scores. I tabulated these the same way that I did last year: the proportion of your picks of each team to your total picks for the year, subtracted from the proportion of picks made for that team across the whole league. So for instance I picked Oakland 12 times, meaning he contributed to 12/254 or 4.72% of my total picks for the year. Across all players he was picked 74 times total for 74/1982 or 3.7% of the total picks. That difference of ~1 percentage point is the largest single difference for me among all teams, and so is the team I favored most heavily relative to the rest of the league. Basically its a half-assed approach towards trying to figure out who you picked a bunch, without that answer being a) teams that are really really good, or b) random teams that were picked so seldom that you picking them 2 or 3 times totally skews the results. It's not the most sophisticated method, but Sommer's got SF, I've got Oakland, and cake's got Seattle, so it can't be that terrible of a heuristic. Sharps is the same method, but the lowest result for each person rather than the highest.

For the Golden Homer award, Sommer once again takes the prize, as he, once again, picked San Francisco every week without fail. This is, also, why I look at relative to the league's pick rates, as both Light Cleric and I picked New England 16/16 times (KMR picked them 15/16 times), and KMR picked Philadelphia 16/16 times. However as both teams made the playoffs, someone picking those teams so often is not nearly as remarkable.

The Silver Tack award this year, actually also goes to Sommerswerd, who picked Seattle a mere 3 times out of the 79 total for the league. Honorable mention goes to viva, a very close second who didn't pick Dallas a single week this year.

The Best Team and Worst Team are stats I've resurrected from the 2015-16 season. They are stats that ask which team was the one you picked most efficiently or successfully. In other words: how often did your picking that team translate to points? KMR had the most efficient numbers in his picks of the Rams: he picked them 7 times and earned 13 points on those picks, for an average of 1.85 points per pick, which would be good for a 29.6 PPW just to give you an idea of how absurd that is. Honorable mention goes to Light Cleric who was likewise picking Minnesota at a rate of 1.8 points per pick. For worst teams, that's not a typo. You have to pick a team a minimum 5 times for it to count for the statistic, and Tim picked Cleveland 6 times this year.

Let's close out this post with some all-time rankings. First we have to add Light Cleric up onto the winners' board:

2014-18 Winners.png



Here are the top-5 single season records for points, PPW, 2-point picks and 1-point picks:


2014-18 Top 5 Points.png


2014-18 Top 5 PPW.png


2014-18 Top 5 2-Points.png


2014-18 Top 5 1-Points.png


So yeah. This year was pretty ridiculous. Lots of records got broken. Hopefully it's not a sign that there's some massive flaw in the scoring system that's suddenly made the game too easy :hide:

And finally, we'll conclude this post with the overall stats for all participants from 2014 to date:

2014-18 All-Time.png


And that wraps up the regular season guys. I'm going to throw some graphs up on the next post (TIL there's an image limit for posts!), and of course we still have the playoffs edition going if you want to stick around and participate. But if I don't I'd like to take this time to thank you all for participating! I had fun as ever, and I look forward to seeing you back in 9 months' time for round 5!
 
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Neato Graphs

2017-2018 Points Totals Graph.png


2017-2018 Winners Graph.png


Individual Players' Graphs

Spoiler Light Cleric :
Light Cleric 2014-2018.png



Spoiler Owen Glyndwr :
Owen Glyndwr 2014-2018.png



Spoiler Timsup2nothin :
Timsup2nothin 2014-2018.png


Spoiler KMRblue1027 :

KMRblue1027 2014-2018.png


Spoiler caketastydelish :
caketastydelish 2015-2018.png


Spoiler vivalamexico :
vivalamexico 2015-2018.png


Spoiler Sommerswerd :
Sommerswerd, 2016-2018.png


Spoiler Serutan :
Serutan 2017-2018.png
 
Thanks Owen!

I don't know if I'm more irritated that I kept thinking those lame Browns would eventually at least beat a spread, or that two guys did phenomenally well when they picked Detroit and I picked Detroit more than anyone and they seemed to NEVER come through when I did.
 
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