Originally posted by onejayhawk
Invade is the definitive wordd here. One of the big factors in the equation is the fact that the Chinese do not have the capability to cross the straights in force. Taiwan's Air Force is amoung the best in the world, and quite cabable of sinking large numbers of transports. which the Chinese do not have to begin with.
The Chinese might not be able to cross the straits now - but how about 20 years fr now? 50? 100? 200?
Even if there's a new democratic China on the scene, I would think the Chinese would still want to 'recover' Taiwan. It has something to do with the Chinese need to reaffirm their place in the world - that China is well and truly recovered fr the trials of the past 2 centuries, and esp that the Chinese can do damn well pleased in what they see as their millenia-old sphere of influence w/o Western intervention.
This is, of course, why the situation exists as it does. I am mistified why XIII states flatly that western intervention is what caused teh rift in the first place. That sounds like a party line slogan, rather than a reasoned opinion. Mao could not take the island, and 50 years has not changed that basic fact.
A lot of Chinese see the West and Japan as the main culprits in the humbling of the old Chinese order - specifically the old Qing Empire. Anti-Western and anti-Japanese feelings had been around in China for a long time, fr way before the Communists came to power. I'm referring to the stretch fr the Opium War of 1842 to 1949 when the PRC was founded and the Western powers kicked out of China for good - when the West pretty much dictated everything in China.
British warships cruised the Yangzi at will, and fired on any who refused to submit to the British. Germans called the shots in Shandong. Guangxi groaned under French influence. All of Manchuria and a great part of China under Japanese occupation at one time. Yes, the Chinese had a lot of past issues to pick.
'Recovering' Taiwan is seen as one step in putting things right again for the Chinese, and the final step; much like Hong Kong was in 1997.
And I think the Communists are now employing such feelings in the people, as one of the props to maintain themselves in power.
Since the Communists in China hardly do Communism anymore.
And I think they're playing with fire. They may find once they've let out the genie out of the bag, it'll be hard to clamp down on the nationalist/patriotic fervour - they may have to really fight out the war they always said they would.