eldar
ChiefTank
Changing a lot of things (e.g. 'Population Center') unchecks the 'Fortified' box. Just a bit annoying, as you have to re-check it every time.
Neil.
Neil.
Resource icon
- Thread starter BomberEscort
- Start date
For offensive bombardment at present the results are given as the same regardless of whether the defender is outside in the open or in a town. I believe that the actual chance of inflicting damage on a defender inside a town is much lower as the bombardment may get directed against city improvements or population instead.
Somehow, retreats and hps lost aren't being calculated properly. The final attacker wins, defender wins, and draw probabilities also seem to be affected, I think.
Consider a 2 hp veteran knight attacking a 2 hp regular spear fortified in a town on grassland. This means a modified defense of 2.70, we agree. Thus, the attacker wins 4/6.7=59.7% of the rounds. I think we agree on that.
By your calculations with Oystein, the chance of a retreat, should one occur, is exactly 58% -- 58/(50+50), since the knight is vet and the spear regular. I think we agree on that (unless there's been more recent research I've missed...in which case, where is it?).
Let's go through all the possibilities. With only 2 hps, we can list them all out. I'll use A to mean attacker wins a round and D to mean defender wins a round, so AA means attacker wins and then attacker wins. [Note, I used more exact numbers but am only showing a few to save typing time.]
AA - Happens with probability .597^2 = 35.64% (AHPL = 0, attacker wins)
ADA - No retreat chance since defender at 1 hp when attacker reaches 1 hp - Probability .597*.403*.597 = 14.36% (AHPL = 1, attacker wins)
ADD - No retreat chance - Probability .597*.403*.403 = 9.70% (DHPL = 1, defender wins)
D* - The * is a successful retreat - Probability .402*.58 = 23.37% (AHPL=1, DHPL=0, DRAW)
D*AA - The * is a failed retreat. Since the defender still had 2 hps, the knight rolls to retreat. In this case, it failed, leading to this result - Probability .402*.42*.597*.597 = 6.03% (AHPL = 1, attacker wins)
D*AD - * is a failed retreat - Probability .402*.42*.597*.402 = 4.07% (DHPL = 1, defender wins)
D*D - * is a failed retreat - Probability .402*.42*.402 = 6.82% (DHPL = 0, defender wins)
Total probabilities....
A wins - 35.64 + 14.36 + 6.03 = 56.03%
D wins - 9.70 + 4.07 + 6.82 = 20.59%
DRAW - 23.37%
(AHPL = 0) - 35.64%
(AHPL = 1) - 14.36 + 23.37 + 6.03 = 43.76%
(DHPL = 0) - 23.37 + 6.82 = 30.19%
(DHLP = 1) - 9.70 + 4.07 = 13.77%
The A wins, D wins, and DRAW match your combat calculator, but you show 43.972% for (AHPL = 0) and 35.440% for (AHPL=1), for example, which just has to be wrong.
Also, changing the attackers hps changes the odds of (AHPL=0), which is wrong, because that's always just the chance the attacker wins two consecutively and MUST be the same for all values of attacker hps. Indeed, setting attacker hps to 1 gives 35.643%, which is what (AHPL=0) must be for any attacker hp value (changing nothing else).
You need to look at your retreat logic again. If I can help, let me know.
This simple example doesn't show the error in attacker wins, defender wins, DRAW, but I think it's there and probably the same bug. For example, a 4 hp vet knight attacking a 3 hp regular spear with same terrain, I get 78.4% attacker wins and you get 79.4% with our defensive wins off by similar amounts.
Arathorn
Consider a 2 hp veteran knight attacking a 2 hp regular spear fortified in a town on grassland. This means a modified defense of 2.70, we agree. Thus, the attacker wins 4/6.7=59.7% of the rounds. I think we agree on that.
By your calculations with Oystein, the chance of a retreat, should one occur, is exactly 58% -- 58/(50+50), since the knight is vet and the spear regular. I think we agree on that (unless there's been more recent research I've missed...in which case, where is it?).
Let's go through all the possibilities. With only 2 hps, we can list them all out. I'll use A to mean attacker wins a round and D to mean defender wins a round, so AA means attacker wins and then attacker wins. [Note, I used more exact numbers but am only showing a few to save typing time.]
AA - Happens with probability .597^2 = 35.64% (AHPL = 0, attacker wins)
ADA - No retreat chance since defender at 1 hp when attacker reaches 1 hp - Probability .597*.403*.597 = 14.36% (AHPL = 1, attacker wins)
ADD - No retreat chance - Probability .597*.403*.403 = 9.70% (DHPL = 1, defender wins)
D* - The * is a successful retreat - Probability .402*.58 = 23.37% (AHPL=1, DHPL=0, DRAW)
D*AA - The * is a failed retreat. Since the defender still had 2 hps, the knight rolls to retreat. In this case, it failed, leading to this result - Probability .402*.42*.597*.597 = 6.03% (AHPL = 1, attacker wins)
D*AD - * is a failed retreat - Probability .402*.42*.597*.402 = 4.07% (DHPL = 1, defender wins)
D*D - * is a failed retreat - Probability .402*.42*.402 = 6.82% (DHPL = 0, defender wins)
Total probabilities....
A wins - 35.64 + 14.36 + 6.03 = 56.03%
D wins - 9.70 + 4.07 + 6.82 = 20.59%
DRAW - 23.37%
(AHPL = 0) - 35.64%
(AHPL = 1) - 14.36 + 23.37 + 6.03 = 43.76%
(DHPL = 0) - 23.37 + 6.82 = 30.19%
(DHLP = 1) - 9.70 + 4.07 = 13.77%
The A wins, D wins, and DRAW match your combat calculator, but you show 43.972% for (AHPL = 0) and 35.440% for (AHPL=1), for example, which just has to be wrong.
Also, changing the attackers hps changes the odds of (AHPL=0), which is wrong, because that's always just the chance the attacker wins two consecutively and MUST be the same for all values of attacker hps. Indeed, setting attacker hps to 1 gives 35.643%, which is what (AHPL=0) must be for any attacker hp value (changing nothing else).
You need to look at your retreat logic again. If I can help, let me know.
This simple example doesn't show the error in attacker wins, defender wins, DRAW, but I think it's there and probably the same bug. For example, a 4 hp vet knight attacking a 3 hp regular spear with same terrain, I get 78.4% attacker wins and you get 79.4% with our defensive wins off by similar amounts.
Arathorn
Version 1.35 posted on Page #1.
I don't think I am going to update Offensive Bombard to include damage probabilities when attacking units in cities. Sometimes the bombard hits the pop, unit, or building and this could not be added without extra toggles that will clutter the interface.
- I reworked the retreat formula (credit to Arathorn). I think this is working correctly now.
- Fixed a coding error with Defensive Bombard that caused a minor error in the totals.
I don't think I am going to update Offensive Bombard to include damage probabilities when attacking units in cities. Sometimes the bombard hits the pop, unit, or building and this could not be added without extra toggles that will clutter the interface.
A quick question, I'm not exactly sure how to configure the combat calculator to calculate air vs. air intercept rates. (ie: the chance a bomber will be shot down by a passive fighter on air superiority)
Can you clarify?
Can you clarify?
Pfeffersack
Deity
About the amphibious attack bonus...I found this thread at Apolytons AU forum:
http://apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=105787
Quote from Alexman:
http://apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=105787
Quote from Alexman:
dexters said:
ATM, the calculator does not support these calculations.
Pfeffersack said:
Last I heard this was tentatively in, but was later removed. I did some testing with the latest conquests patch sometime back and I did not notice this bonus. I'll check posts by Alexman on poly and see if he has any new data of which I am unaware.
Eetu Pellonpää
Chieftain
Fine tool to check the changes of impossible to happen...
would-be-addict
Chieftain
- Joined
- May 10, 2005
- Messages
- 1
For some odd reason, my very slow computer can't get the calculator. I will download it, but when I try to open it, it comes up with this window that says: "CivIIICombatCalculator.zip could not be opened." and it won't let me get to it. 
Monitors will roll!!!
Monitors will roll!!! 
Very nice utility however it has just confirmed to me even more so how dodgy some of the results are the AI keeps getting in its favour. OMG how the hell is my Elite Modern Armour gonna defeat that 2hp Spearman on the grasslands. Im sure many of you know what i mean by this.
socralynnek
Civ & Hattrick addict
Hmmm, it also happens the other way round, the AI does not cheat concerning the Combat calculation.
You don't have a 100% of winning, so sooner or later it happens that you lose a 99% fight.
You don't have a 100% of winning, so sooner or later it happens that you lose a 99% fight.
josephstalin
Kremlin Highlander
That's good utility. Though I'm not goung to use it often. But you have to check/uncheck too many same boxes too many times, when you changed something...
Can u tell me how to correctly use this program and does it work for Civ3v1.29f and how do u use it i dont understand How do I download the program? I clicked onthe "NEW Civ III Combat Cal..." and it takes me to this page, then I scroll down to "Here's the program..." and there is nothing to click on. What's the deal? (I don't think this matters in the slightest, but I am logged on)
socralynnek
Civ & Hattrick addict
Since I don't know whether this is on purpose, I won't just send it to you. Have you tried PMing BomberEscort?
Mirc
Not mIRC!!!
What do you mean, if this is on purpose? 
socralynnek
Civ & Hattrick addict
Sorry, if I was unclear.
I don't know why the program isn't here anymore. So I don't know whether BomberEscort doesn't want to spread this program anymore.
As he is the owner of the program, you might want to ask him whether he wants to distribute it.
I don't know why the program isn't here anymore. So I don't know whether BomberEscort doesn't want to spread this program anymore.
As he is the owner of the program, you might want to ask him whether he wants to distribute it.
